NFL betting week 1

[BobDigital]

I am not encouraging betting on these games but just decided to look at the lines for week 1. Here is my impression. It is just to take about relative strengths of teams more than anything.
one * means i would like it enough to take it... probably.
Two ** means happy to take it.
Three *** is a no brainer.

KC @ Pats - Pats 7.5 favorites O/U of 48.5 - Thinking about it KC has very few means to score on the Pats and the Pats usually have a very good week 1. Reid/Smith make me like this bet. Pats over spread with a ***

NYJ @ Bills - Bills 6.5 favorites O/U of 42.5. - I don't think touching this game is wise. Can't trust the Bills to be consistent. As likely to be a blow out as a close game. No bet.

ATL @ Chi - Atlanta 7 favorites O/U of 50. Atlanta really isn't much different home or on the road and the Bears just stink. The Falcons should crush them but the Bears O is so bad I don't like the O/U but as a favorite I like it a ton. Falcons over spread ***

Jax @ Houston - Houston 4.5 and O/U of 42. Houston should win by a fair amount but they are inconsistent. I kind of like the under here though but not much. Take the under of 42 *

Philly @ Washington - Washington 2.5 favorites and O/U of 48.5. Too many uncertainties here. 2nd year QB on the Eagles. The under is interesting but I don't love it. Probably worth taking though but i wouldn't bet money on it personally.

AZ @ Det - Lions 2.5 favorites and O/U of 49.5 My first instinct screamed "take the under" but the more i looked at it the more pause I had. AZ will have a good chance to be explosive and frankly I hate up and down teams like them. Detroit is good for 20-23 points likely meaning AZ needs 27 to screw you. If i had to choose take the under but i punt here. Don't like it.

Oak @ Ten - Oakland 1 favorites and O/U of 51.1. Basically a pick em. I take Oakland all day every day if Carr is 100%. Oakland went 10-2 before injuries derailed them. 1 lost to KC when they played bad and a tough loss to the Falcons. I don't touch the O/U here though. Take the Raiders over spread **

Tampa @ Mia - Miami 1 favorites and O/U of 47.5. Nope. Too many unknowns and inconsistencies.

Balt @ Cin - Cinci 1 favorites and O/U of 42. Not touching it.

Pitt @ Cleveland - Pit 9.5 favorites and O/U of 47.5. I like Pitt here. They are not so hot on the road but Cleveland is just horrible. Also tempted to take the under as Pitt may need to score almost 40 to hit the over and they tend to stay around 30 pretty much but a surprise TD by the Browns could hurt. I will say. Take Pitt over spread *** and the under *

Indy @ LA - Indy 3.5 favorites and O/U of 47.5. I don't like the spread but one of the worse offenses in the NFL makes me like the under here a fair amount. I hate taking Indy away so I won't. Take the under **

Seattle @ GB - GB 3 favorites and O/U of 50. Generally the home team has held serve here recently. Personally I hate this game for betting as it could fall either way. Not touching it.

Carolina @ SF - Car 5.5 favorites and O/U of 48. I like Carolina to bounce back some this year and SF is just trash. Generally I like to bet against really bad teams or for really good teams but i think betting against bad teams is very consistent. Take Carolina *** but not touching O/U.

NYG @ Dal - Dallas 5 favorites and O/U of 50. Not picking a team. I think dallas is due to win but it will be too close and maybe Giants win. I love the under though. Take the under **

NO @ Minn - Minn 3 favorites and O/U of 48. I am not a fan of this game in any sense to bet on any part of it.

SD @ Den - Den 4 favorites and O/U of 44.5. I hate betting on any SD game as they are so up and down. They can lose close or big or pull one out you don't expect. I do like the O/U here okay though but don't love it. Take the under *

As a footnote. I think it be fun to take a small amount of money and say my bets every week and then put the money on my bets to see how i do at the end of the year. I am curious if people would like to see that week to week or not or if actual encouraging and talking about real betting is against the rules here (I don't know if it is)

 

[supafly]

I am not encouraging betting on these games but just decided to look at the lines for week 1. Here is my impression. It is just to take about relative strengths of teams more than anything.
one * means i would like it enough to take it... probably.
Two ** means happy to take it.
Three *** is a no brainer.

KC @ Pats - Pats 7.5 favorites O/U of 48.5 - Thinking about it KC has very few means to score on the Pats and the Pats usually have a very good week 1. Reid/Smith make me like this bet. Pats over spread with a ***

NYJ @ Bills - Bills 6.5 favorites O/U of 42.5. - I don't think touching this game is wise. Can't trust the Bills to be consistent. As likely to be a blow out as a close game. No bet.

ATL @ Chi - Atlanta 7 favorites O/U of 50. Atlanta really isn't much different home or on the road and the Bears just stink. The Falcons should crush them but the Bears O is so bad I don't like the O/U but as a favorite I like it a ton. Falcons over spread ***

Jax @ Houston - Houston 4.5 and O/U of 42. Houston should win by a fair amount but they are inconsistent. I kind of like the under here though but not much. Take the under of 42 *

Philly @ Washington - Washington 2.5 favorites and O/U of 48.5. Too many uncertainties here. 2nd year QB on the Eagles. The under is interesting but I don't love it. Probably worth taking though but i wouldn't bet money on it personally.

AZ @ Det - Lions 2.5 favorites and O/U of 49.5 My first instinct screamed "take the under" but the more i looked at it the more pause I had. AZ will have a good chance to be explosive and frankly I hate up and down teams like them. Detroit is good for 20-23 points likely meaning AZ needs 27 to screw you. If i had to choose take the under but i punt here. Don't like it.

Oak @ Ten - Oakland 1 favorites and O/U of 51.1. Basically a pick em. I take Oakland all day every day if Carr is 100%. Oakland went 10-2 before injuries derailed them. 1 lost to KC when they played bad and a tough loss to the Falcons. I don't touch the O/U here though. Take the Raiders over spread **

Tampa @ Mia - Miami 1 favorites and O/U of 47.5. Nope. Too many unknowns and inconsistencies.

Balt @ Cin - Cinci 1 favorites and O/U of 42. Not touching it.

Pitt @ Cleveland - Pit 9.5 favorites and O/U of 47.5. I like Pitt here. They are not so hot on the road but Cleveland is just horrible. Also tempted to take the under as Pitt may need to score almost 40 to hit the over and they tend to stay around 30 pretty much but a surprise TD by the Browns could hurt. I will say. Take Pitt over spread *** and the under *

Indy @ LA - Indy 3.5 favorites and O/U of 47.5. I don't like the spread but one of the worse offenses in the NFL makes me like the under here a fair amount. I hate taking Indy away so I won't. Take the under **

Seattle @ GB - GB 3 favorites and O/U of 50. Generally the home team has held serve here recently. Personally I hate this game for betting as it could fall either way. Not touching it.

Carolina @ SF - Car 5.5 favorites and O/U of 48. I like Carolina to bounce back some this year and SF is just trash. Generally I like to bet against really bad teams or for really good teams but i think betting against bad teams is very consistent. Take Carolina *** but not touching O/U.

NYG @ Dal - Dallas 5 favorites and O/U of 50. Not picking a team. I think dallas is due to win but it will be too close and maybe Giants win. I love the under though. Take the under **

NO @ Minn - Minn 3 favorites and O/U of 48. I am not a fan of this game in any sense to bet on any part of it.

SD @ Den - Den 4 favorites and O/U of 44.5. I hate betting on any SD game as they are so up and down. They can lose close or big or pull one out you don't expect. I do like the O/U here okay though but don't love it. Take the under *

As a footnote. I think it be fun to take a small amount of money and say my bets every week and then put the money on my bets to see how i do at the end of the year. I am curious if people would like to see that week to week or not or if actual encouraging and talking about real betting is against the rules here (I don't know if it is)

As long as we don't start taking each other's bets, I think we're okay discussing the spreads in a casual setting. We'll have to see if Ian has an issue.

*side note* I would happily take some of these bets

*side side note* This comment was meant in jest, particularly if you happen to work for the IRS

 

[Biffins]

As long as we don't start taking each other's bets, I think we're okay discussing the spreads in a casual setting. We'll have to see if Ian has an issue.

*side note* I would happily take some of these bets

*side side note* This comment was meant in jest, particularly if you happen to work for the IRS

For those of us in UK, betting is legal and winnings are tax free.

 

[supafly]

For those of us in UK, betting is legal and winnings are tax free.

Show off

 

[fnordcircle]

Other than the Pats I tend to stay far away from divisional games. Late 80s/early 90s the Pats would win games against the Bills when we shouldn't have even been in the same league as them. That Jets @ Bills game gives me the heebie jeebies. As long as I don't bet on the the Jets will lose by double digits. But if I bet on it they'll lose by 2.

I've been gambling pretty religiously the last 6 or so years and am way up. My secret is to bet on the Pats enough to cover up for my idiot bets on other games. I'm basically a genius.

But for real other than the Pats I don't bet until week 10. I charted out my betting and found I was way better at betting late in the season but too much of my betting early on was based on the previous season and so much changes it's not even funny.

 

[fnordcircle]

Also, parlays are loser bets. Don't even bring that trash up in here.

 

[jmt57]

As a footnote. I think it be fun to take a small amount of money and say my bets every week and then put the money on my bets to see how i do at the end of the year. I am curious if people would like to see that week to week or not or if actual encouraging and talking about real betting is against the rules here (I don't know if it is)

In past seasons I know that a handful of us have compared predictions over the course of the year, though I don't recall if there was any done last year. That was always done in the NFL forum if I recall correctly, since once the the season kicks off there just isn't space for threads in the main forum that don't relate directly to the Patriots (with of course the lone exception of the annual Jets thread).

I write a column here each week during the football season with predictions straight up, against the spread and on the over/under for every NFL game. Included is a disclaimer that it is for entertainment purposes only and that this website does not condone gambling; I also refrain from any usage of the words such as dollars, bet or money, just to cover my butt.

Within a forum as opposed to a column, I don't see how Ian can get into any trouble with predictions such as these - but I'm not a lawyer.


As for week one games, I am a long ways away from handicapping them - and as fnordcircle noted, early games are particularly difficult to predict. Without any research and just going off the cuff, Jax-Houston under, Pats, Bills and Steelers would probably be my top picks. A teaser with three or all four of those games could be worth looking into as well.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Also, parlays are loser bets. Don't even bring that trash up in here.

I never box myself in.

There have been a ton of awful teams the past few years to take advantage of.

You would have made a lot of money last year Pats/Whoever Browns were playing.


I believe the Giants play 4 teams coming off a bye as well.

 

[Tuck]

Green Bay has been narrowing the gap between themselves and the Pats Super Bowl odds lately.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I like Cleveland. 9.5 point underdogs...as you stated, Pittsburgh is a very different team on the road. They also seem to play poorly as a big favorite and/or with big expectations. Not saying it will be close, but that's a lot of points to give.

 

[supafly]

Green Bay has been narrowing the gap between themselves and the Pats Super Bowl odds lately.

I think a team like GB will always be an attractive option to the public.

 

[supafly]

I like Cleveland. 9.5 point underdogs...as you stated, Pittsburgh is a very different team on the road. They also seem to play poorly as a big favorite and/or with big expectations. Not saying it will be close, but that's a lot of points to give.

As others have mentioned, it's way too early to try and get much of a read on anything, but these exercises are fun to pass the time in early July.

I don't make a habit of giving more than -3 points on the road, but there are some circumstances where it's hard to lay off. In this case, we don't even know who the CLE QB will be, so I don't think this is a game that I would touch.

Now...a two team 7 point teaser takes the line down to PIT-2.5, which is a much more attractive option. Of course, you'll have to pair that with another game. I don't like to make things more complicated than they have to be with this subject matter, but as another poster pointed out, it's good to keep all options open in case something jumps out at you.

 

[supafly]

I never box myself in.

There have been a ton of awful teams the past few years to take advantage of.

You would have made a lot of money last year Pats/Whoever Browns were playing.

I agree with you about considering all options, although it would be impossible to disagree with fnord's opinion that parlays are generally a pain in the ass.

It's difficult enough to win one game with normal circumstances, let alone both--at least for me. I'm all about improving the odds with some teasers every now and then, though.

 

[SacPete1]

Great post. I enjoy betting as well and hope you continue to share your picks each week.

Might I suggest each Wednesday or Thursday during the season.

 

[varjao]

KC @ Pats - Pats 7.5 favorites O/U of 48.5 - I'd give a ** for the Pats covering, but since it's week 1 and the Pats kicking off the season, NO BET.

NYJ @ Bills - Bills 6.5 favorites O/U of 42.5. - NO BET.

ATL @ Chi - Atlanta 7 favorites O/U of 50. - ATLANTA -7 **

Jax @ Houston - Houston 4.5 and O/U of 42. Will Jacksonville finally show something? Will Deshaun Watson be a nice surprise early on or struggle a bit? NO BET.

Philly @ Washington - Washington 2.5 favorites and O/U of 48.5. NO BET.

AZ @ Det - Lions 2.5 favorites and O/U of 49.5 NO BET.

Oak @ Ten - Oakland 1 favorites and O/U of 51.1. NO BET.

Tampa @ Mia - Miami 1 favorites and O/U of 47.5. NO BET.

Balt @ Cin - Cinci 1 favorites and O/U of 42. Not touching it. NO BET.

Pitt @ Cleveland - Pit 9.5 favorites and O/U of 47.5. NO BET.

Indy @ LA - Indy 3.5 favorites and O/U of 47.5. NO BET.

Seattle @ GB - GB 3 favorites and O/U of 50. GB -3 *

Carolina @ SF - Car 5.5 favorites and O/U of 48. NO BET.

NYG @ Dal - Dallas 5 favorites and O/U of 50. NO BET.

NO @ Minn - Minn 3 favorites and O/U of 48. NO BET.

SD @ Den - San Diego should win, but since they always find ways to choke in Denver, and for the simple fact that it's San Diego (or LA, whatever) NO BET.

Sorry no time for an elaborate analysis on each game like the OP did but it's all basically for the same reasons, I don't feel any strong inclination for each side, week 1 is always complicated for betting, bad match-ups, too many question marks. I'd give the Falcons -7 a *** but since it's week 1, it's **, there is no *** in week 1 usually.

Well that's a rational analysis, if you take any week of the NFL season and perform a serious analysis like an investor would do before committing money in an investment, you will find value in 2 or 3 games tops, very rarely more than that. What happens though is a different story lol.

 

[patfanken]

In past seasons I know that a handful of us have compared predictions over the course of the year, though I don't recall if there was any done last year. That was always done in the NFL forum if I recall correctly, since once the the season kicks off there just isn't space for threads in the main forum that don't relate directly to the Patriots (with of course the lone exception of the annual Jets thread).

I write a column here each week during the football season with predictions straight up, against the spread and on the over/under for every NFL game. Included is a disclaimer that it is for entertainment purposes only and that this website does not condone gambling; I also refrain from any usage of the words such as dollars, bet or money, just to cover my butt.

Within a forum as opposed to a column, I don't see how Ian can get into any trouble with predictions such as these - but I'm not a lawyer.


As for week one games, I am a long ways away from handicapping them - and as fnordcircle noted, early games are particularly difficult to predict. Without any research and just going off the cuff, Jax-Houston under, Pats, Bills and Steelers would probably be my top picks. A teaser with three or all four of those games could be worth looking into as well.

I would be very interested in seeing the difference between these pre-TC odds and the ones that wind up the odds after final cuts. Will they differ much?

Is it possible for someone to go back to some previous years and check on how the odds changed (or didn't) between what they were before TC and just before the actual game.

 

[jmt57]

I would be very interested in seeing the difference between these pre-TC odds and the ones that wind up the odds after final cuts. Will they differ much?

Is it possible for someone to go back to some previous years and check on how the odds changed (or didn't) between what they were before TC and just before the actual game.

I would assume that the biggest changes are due to a preseason or training camp injuries rather than cuts.

I recall there was one year when Michael Vick broke his leg in a preseason game. He was coming off a big year where the Falcons had made the playoffs and the expectations were high, but that injury screwed Atlanta for the season.

A couple years ago Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in August. Green Bay still made the playoffs, but they were not nearly as good as the previous year or the year after.

Last year Dallas lost Tony Romo in late August and the consensus was that the Cowboys were doomed, because they had had such a poor record in recent years without Romo. So much for that prediction.

Minnesota also lost Tedy Bridgewater just before week one with a torn ACL. With Shaun Hill as the backup they were expected to be pretty bad. Then the Vikings traded for Sam Bradford; they surprisingly started strong, but faded in the second half.

San Diego had a lot of injuries last year too but if I recall most came after the start of the season, during the first month of the season.

 

[varjao]

I'd be nice to have an official betting thread during the season to analyse the odds and exchange opinions between us degenerate gamblers lol

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Also, parlays are loser bets. Don't even bring that trash up in here.

hehe i always like to do a $1 or $5 parlay bet.. i won two parlay 7's one year.. entered the year with a $50 deposit, ended with over $900 in the account

I agree parlay's are sucker bets, but i still play them with light bets for fun and they pay out amazingly in the VERY RARE instances that they work out

 

[mgcolby]

I take this in jest as intended. But if I have learned one thing betting on the NFL over the years, be very, very, very selective weeks 1-4. Weird **** happens. Teams are not what we thought they were or still getting their **** together. Week 5 starts to show what most teams will be. Best to take the -28 on the Alabama's vs Southwestern State's for a couple of weeks during the college pre-season, IMO.