My Slightly Homerish SB Prediction

[Brewskies]

I feel very good going into this game. The offense has had an incredible post season, again.
In 2 games we have put up 88 points 66 first downs (that’s an unbelievable number) and 1022 yards. Tom Brady has not been sacked.
In the last 3 postseasons, the patriots average game has been 35.5 points 471 yards and 29 first downs.
In those 8 games Brady has is 246/371 2960. 18 td 5 int.
That’s an average game of about 31/46/370 with over 2 TDs and less than 1 pick.

Defensively we have dominated the first half in the post season this year allowing 7 points and 155 total yards. All the points and 67 of the yards were on the opening drive of the first game, after that 8 first half defensive drives added up to no points and 88 yards allowed. The second half defense has not been so good but that could be partially due to garbage time (vs chargers) and field position and shaky penalties (vs kc).
The rams defense does not worry me a lot. Offensively they are good but have slowed down from their pace to start the year. I think we will focus on Gurley and take away the run early, while we jump out in front and make them become more one-dimensional, at which point Goff will become mistake prone.
I see this as finally the comfortable SB win where we get out to an early lead and are in control although as we play against the clock more than the scoreboard it may end closer than it was.
I see patriots 37 rams 27. In the predict the score thread in order to have a chance to win I had the rams at 16 so I hope I get that one right!!!

I expect Brady will be right around that 31/46/370 and we will run for over 100 and top 500 yards of offense again.
I expect Hightower and Flowers to be disruptive on defense and Gilmore to blanket whoever he is on and JC will get an int among 2 takeaways.

The dynasty lives!!!

I love the outlook.

 

[venecol]

Rams DL has a much better chance of disrupting Brady than the Patriots DL does of disrupting Goff. That's a huge concern of mine. And if the Patriots fall behind early, Suh & Donald have the opportunity to tee off.

Why do you say that? Goff was sacked 33 times during the regular season and once in the post season. TB was sacked 21 and 0 in the same. NE OL was ranked #1 in pass protection, Rams OL #6.

What is the basis for your nervousness?

 

[Patstastic]

Why do you say that? Goff was sacked 33 times during the regular season and once in the post season. TB was sacked 21 and 0 in the same. NE OL was ranked #1 in pass protection, Rams OL #6.

What is the basis for your nervousness?

Donald & Suh

 

[Ring 6]

Why do you say that? Goff was sacked 33 times during the regular season and once in the post season. TB was sacked 21 and 0 in the same. NE OL was ranked #1 in pass protection, Rams OL #6.

What is the basis for your nervousness?

Patriots also had 100 QBs hits defensively vs 94 for LA and the rams had 41 sacks to the patriots 30, bit in the postseason the rams have 3 and the patriots have 6.

 

[venecol]

Donald & Suh

Yes but they are now playing against the #1 ranked pass protection OL. I actually suspect Patriots DL will put more pressure on Goff than the other way around. I'm not talking sacks necessarily but enough pressure to create interceptions. Mahomes was lucky, Pats should've had a couple of picks during AFCCG.

 

[Username]

I just want a straightforward, comfortable victory for a change. No heart stopping, down to the last drive ******** please...

 

[venecol]

I just want a straightforward, comfortable victory for a change. No heart stopping, down to the last drive ******** please...

I agree with you but it's funny how XLIX became such a classic (albeit my small heart attack); only to be exceeded by LI with the greatest comeback in SB history (almost seppuku'd myself at halftime).

No you're right, enough drama. Need a comfortable, always ahead win.

 

[mosi]

Honest question have you always phony picked for superstition or did you expect them to lose the other games and were just wrong?

What I noticed is that when I posted on the predict the score threads, the opposite would happen. Whenever I posted a win, they would lose. Always. And on the rare instances when I thought they would lose, they won. So I stopped predicting wins.

So now, I only post predictions for losses, almost guaranteeing a win!

This of course is completely illogical and in reality has absolutely no bearing on how the game plays out. Like me sleeping in my Pat Patriot t-shirt and eating from my Patriots toaster the morning of a Super Bowl, all of which are essential for a patriots win.

 

[mosi]

I just want a straightforward, comfortable victory for a change. No heart stopping, down to the last drive ******** please...

Man, that would be an absolute dream. Just floor it from the very first play - a game like the Chargers game.

 

[QB12]

What I noticed is that when I posted on the predict the score threads, the opposite would happen. Whenever I posted a win, they would lose. Always. And on the rare instances when I thought they would lose, they won. So I stopped predicting wins.

So now, I only post predictions for losses, almost guaranteeing a win!

This of course is completely illogical and in reality has absolutely no bearing on how the game plays out. Like me sleeping in my Pat Patriot t-shirt and eating from my Patriots toaster the morning of a Super Bowl, all of which are essential for a patriots win.

This is how a crappy fan spins his swings and misses.

 

[50-yard-line]

Tougher game than I want or others expect. Best DL Pats have faced this year and it’s not even close.

KC led the league in sacks, and that was with Justin Houston only playing 12 games. By the time they got to the AFCCG, he was healthy. Houston, Chris Jones and Dee Ford presented great pressure packages.

Also, that game was in KC, as loud as any stadium, which is a huge advantage to pass rushers (see Von Miller, Denver).

San Diego, with Bosa and Ingram, were also incredibly highly rated in getting to the QB.

I agree, the Rams might be a bit more of an issue, because their pressure typically comes from inside with Donald, but they are not the "best DL...and it's not even close."

 

[50-yard-line]

What I noticed is that when I posted on the predict the score threads, the opposite would happen. Whenever I posted a win, they would lose. Always. And on the rare instances when I thought they would lose, they won. So I stopped predicting wins.

So now, I only post predictions for losses, almost guaranteeing a win!

This of course is completely illogical and in reality has absolutely no bearing on how the game plays out. Like me sleeping in my Pat Patriot t-shirt and eating from my Patriots toaster the morning of a Super Bowl, all of which are essential for a patriots win.

I love your reverse psychology - don't let the naysayers bring you down.

We lost power for a bit and I was worried that my lucky shirt wouldn't be available to me! It was in the washer.

All set now - let's GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

 

[TomPatriot]

KC led the league in sacks, and that was with Justin Houston only playing 12 games. By the time they got to the AFCCG, he was healthy. Houston, Chris Jones and Dee Ford presented great pressure packages.

Also, that game was in KC, as loud as any stadium, which is a huge advantage to pass rushers (see Von Miller, Denver).

San Diego, with Bosa and Ingram, were also incredibly highly rated in getting to the QB.

I agree, the Rams might be a bit more of an issue, because their pressure typically comes from inside with Donald, but they are not the "best DL...and it's not even close."

Not true. Donald, Suh, Brockers > KC or SD DL. Easily the best DL. In the KC game Sorensen was the best player on the field and Dee “offsides” Ford cost them the game. Joey “I think I’ll take a few plays off” Bosa? Come on now.

 

[TomPatriot]

Just win Baby.

 

[captain stone]

You prediciton is 31/46 is 67%...
Interesting stat I just saw. In the post season, Brady is 16-0 when passing at 66% or better.
(13-10 when less than 66%)...

Very, VERY interesting...this will clearly be the stat to monitor.

 

[mosi]

What I noticed is that when I posted on the predict the score threads, the opposite would happen. Whenever I posted a win, they would lose. Always. And on the rare instances when I thought they would lose, they won. So I stopped predicting wins.

So now, I only post predictions for losses, almost guaranteeing a win!

This of course is completely illogical and in reality has absolutely no bearing on how the game plays out. Like me sleeping in my Pat Patriot t-shirt and eating from my Patriots toaster the morning of a Super Bowl, all of which are essential for a patriots win.

See, it AllWAYS works!

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Very, VERY interesting...this will clearly be the stat to monitor.

make that 14-10.

 

[1960Pats]

I love your reverse psychology - don't let the naysayers bring you down.

We lost power for a bit and I was worried that my lucky shirt wouldn't be available to me! It was in the washer.

All set now - let's GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

I almost forgot my lucky sweatshirt but my daughter in law reminded me and I put it on at halftime