- Joined
- May 1, 2008
- Messages
- 16,682
- Reaction score
- 3,686
It should be abundantly clear to everyone that I’m a defense-first guy. But - contrary to what I expect some people may think - I don’t just think of offense as a “necessary evil". It's important to give the defense a rest, after all. 
The Pats have had one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history over the past 4 seasons, finishing in the top 3 in scoring each season and scoring over 500 points from 2010-2012. Despite the injuries and youth on offense last season, the Pats still finished 3rd in scoring in the league, and only 1 point out of second. There's no reason to suppose that we won't have one of the 5 best offenses in the NFL this season as well. They've shown remarkable versatility and the ability to re-define themselves (sometimes on the fly), dominating as a spread offense, as a TE-based offense, as an up-tempo "fast break" offense, and using a power running game. However, the offense has also showed a tendency to struggle in the playoffs against better defenses. With that in mind, here’s my "blueprint" for the offense:
1. Build a defense that can get the opposing offense off the field on 3rd down, limit red zone effectiveness, and generate turnovers.
Haw. Back to the defense. But really, an offense's best friend is a good defense. I'm thrilled with the moves on defense so far, and wouldn't stop. As Mike Dassault noted in a January article, the 2010-2013 Patriots' defense ranked last in the NFL in 3rd down conversion % and in plays over 20 yards allowed. That's just abysmal. Rank just in the middle of the pack in those 2 categories and BB and Brady probably have 2 more rings.
2. Better protection is the best weapon for Brady.
Brady has plenty of weapons. What he needs is adequate protection to use them - especially protection up the middle. The interior OL was terrible in 2013, and Brady was under pressure far too often. Ryan Wendell was a sieve in pass protection, and the rest of the interior line may have suffered trying to compensate for him. Give a QB of Brady's caliber time to go through his reads and find the open guy and the offense will be close to unstoppable.
3. Invest in "queens on the chessboard" and integrate the run and passing games.
The Pats used a power running game to great effect in 2013, and I hope that continues. But what I'd really like to see is better integration of the run and pass offenses. That requires players - in particular, TEs and RBs - who can both block and catch the ball, and who can line up in different ways. Those players become what Mike Smith once referred to as "queens on the chessboard": multidimensional threats who allow the offense to move in different directions. An unpredictable offense is always much harder to defend than a predictable one. “Flexbacks” are more valuable than base running backs, TEs are more valuable than WRs. “H-backs” have tremendous value.
The Pats lost their most versatile "queen on the chessboard" in 2013 with the Aaron Hernandez situation. Their other two top weapons in this regard - Rob Gronkowski and Shane Vereen - spent half the season or more injured. They need better depth behind both players, and someone who can provide at least part of what Hernandez did.
4. Too many weapons to cover is more effective than having a few great weapons.
The New Orleans Saints’ offense has always been my model: too many weapons to cover, no single “elite” weapon (certainly before Jimmy Graham emerged), and use of the RBs in the passing attack. Protect the QB and give him time to find the open receivers. Be able to run or pass with the same personnel. It’s far too easy in the NFL for good offenses to neutralize 1 or 2 “elite” guys - BB has been doing that for years to other teams. I want the exact opposite of what we had in 2009, when Moss and Welker were the only effective offensive options.
You don't need to invest high draft picks in offensive skill players to have a devastating array of offensive weapons. Look at the best offenses of the past decade: New Orleans (Marques Colston 7th round, Darren Sproles UDFA signing but 4th round originally, Pierre Thomas UDFA, Lance Moore UDFA, Jimmy Graham late 3rd round); Green Bay (Randall Cobb late 2nd round, Jordy Nelson 2nd round, Greg Jennings late 2nd round, James Jones 3rd round, Jermichael Finlay late 3rd round, Ryan Grant UDFA, James Starks 6th round). High priced offensive weapons chewing up huge chunks of your salary cap seldom translates into postseason success.
5. Red zone execution is paramount.
The Pats have been able to move the chains effectively. They set a record for 1st downs in 2012. But the name of the game is executing in the red zone and putting up TDs instead of FGs, and that’s hurt the Pats in recent years. The 2013 team finished 8th in red zone execution at 58.11%, down from 67.5% in 2012, and the worst % since 2009. The youth at WR hurt this year, and Gronk’s absence was a huge factor. Too often Brady was trying to force the ball to Edelman or Amendola, who should not be the primary red zone targets. Lack of adequate pass protection also killed drives in the red zone.
Given these basic areas of focus, some of the potential moves I'd like to see the Patriots make in the remaining FA and the draft include:
- Say goodbye to Ryan Wendell. Much as I’d like to see Alex Mack at the pivot, that’s not happening. Move Dan Connolly to center for now with Marcus Cannon at guard, and draft some quality depth to push them. Brandon Thomas, Joel Bitonio, Marcus Martin, Weston Richburg, Travis Swanson, Russell Bodine, Trai Turner, Billy Turner, Dakota Dozier, Cameron Fleming, Tyler Larsen, Bryan Stork, Spencer Long. You don’t have to use a top 50 pick to get starting caliber talent in a draft this deep.
- DON'T waste time on DeSean Jackson. Spending huge money on a me-first prima donna WR goes completely against the grain of the kind of offense I would like to see, regardless of his ability to make some big plays. What the Pats need is (1) too many weapons to cover (which they already have), (2) more time for Brady to use them, (3) better unpredictability and (4) keep the position cost down so that they are able to address other needs.
- DON’T waste precious draft picks on WRs given the depth at the position, but sign several UDFA WRs and bring them in to compete with the youngsters. In a deep draft, there will be talent that goes undrafted. Guys like Chris Boyd, Trey Bruton, Chandler Jones, Albert Wilson, and others. Get a mix of guys, including bigger receivers and smaller, quicker guys. Competition and depth are good.
- Sign Knowshon Moreno over LeGarrette Blount if the price is reasonable. Blount is a fine base RB who can pound opposing defenses. Moreno is a flexback who can be a 3 down weapon in the mold of Doug Martin or Matt Forte. Along with Shane Vereen he would give the Pats tremendous integration of the running and passing games.
- Add TEs and H-Backs. Maybe day 2 if the value is there for guys like ASJ, Amaro and Niklas, but definitely day 3. At least 2 in the draft. Jake Murphy, Richard Rodgers, Gator Hoskins, Trey Millard, Crockett Gillmore. Maybe Larry Webster or Logan Thomas as a TE conversion. I don’t see Colt Lyerla or AC Leonard as likely options, but they should be at least considered from the 6th round on. Some UDFAs like Blake Annen and Ted Bolser. Possibly move Mark Harrison to a hybrid WR/move TE role.
- Add 1 or more UDFA flexbacks to compete with Brandon Bolden. Guys like Zach Bauman, Ben Malena, Henry Josey, Lorenzo Taliaferro. The more the merrier. These guys are plentiful, cheap, and productive.
That’s probably enough as a starting point.
The Pats have had one of the most prolific offenses in NFL history over the past 4 seasons, finishing in the top 3 in scoring each season and scoring over 500 points from 2010-2012. Despite the injuries and youth on offense last season, the Pats still finished 3rd in scoring in the league, and only 1 point out of second. There's no reason to suppose that we won't have one of the 5 best offenses in the NFL this season as well. They've shown remarkable versatility and the ability to re-define themselves (sometimes on the fly), dominating as a spread offense, as a TE-based offense, as an up-tempo "fast break" offense, and using a power running game. However, the offense has also showed a tendency to struggle in the playoffs against better defenses. With that in mind, here’s my "blueprint" for the offense:
1. Build a defense that can get the opposing offense off the field on 3rd down, limit red zone effectiveness, and generate turnovers.
Haw. Back to the defense. But really, an offense's best friend is a good defense. I'm thrilled with the moves on defense so far, and wouldn't stop. As Mike Dassault noted in a January article, the 2010-2013 Patriots' defense ranked last in the NFL in 3rd down conversion % and in plays over 20 yards allowed. That's just abysmal. Rank just in the middle of the pack in those 2 categories and BB and Brady probably have 2 more rings.
2. Better protection is the best weapon for Brady.
Brady has plenty of weapons. What he needs is adequate protection to use them - especially protection up the middle. The interior OL was terrible in 2013, and Brady was under pressure far too often. Ryan Wendell was a sieve in pass protection, and the rest of the interior line may have suffered trying to compensate for him. Give a QB of Brady's caliber time to go through his reads and find the open guy and the offense will be close to unstoppable.
3. Invest in "queens on the chessboard" and integrate the run and passing games.
The Pats used a power running game to great effect in 2013, and I hope that continues. But what I'd really like to see is better integration of the run and pass offenses. That requires players - in particular, TEs and RBs - who can both block and catch the ball, and who can line up in different ways. Those players become what Mike Smith once referred to as "queens on the chessboard": multidimensional threats who allow the offense to move in different directions. An unpredictable offense is always much harder to defend than a predictable one. “Flexbacks” are more valuable than base running backs, TEs are more valuable than WRs. “H-backs” have tremendous value.
The Pats lost their most versatile "queen on the chessboard" in 2013 with the Aaron Hernandez situation. Their other two top weapons in this regard - Rob Gronkowski and Shane Vereen - spent half the season or more injured. They need better depth behind both players, and someone who can provide at least part of what Hernandez did.
4. Too many weapons to cover is more effective than having a few great weapons.
The New Orleans Saints’ offense has always been my model: too many weapons to cover, no single “elite” weapon (certainly before Jimmy Graham emerged), and use of the RBs in the passing attack. Protect the QB and give him time to find the open receivers. Be able to run or pass with the same personnel. It’s far too easy in the NFL for good offenses to neutralize 1 or 2 “elite” guys - BB has been doing that for years to other teams. I want the exact opposite of what we had in 2009, when Moss and Welker were the only effective offensive options.
You don't need to invest high draft picks in offensive skill players to have a devastating array of offensive weapons. Look at the best offenses of the past decade: New Orleans (Marques Colston 7th round, Darren Sproles UDFA signing but 4th round originally, Pierre Thomas UDFA, Lance Moore UDFA, Jimmy Graham late 3rd round); Green Bay (Randall Cobb late 2nd round, Jordy Nelson 2nd round, Greg Jennings late 2nd round, James Jones 3rd round, Jermichael Finlay late 3rd round, Ryan Grant UDFA, James Starks 6th round). High priced offensive weapons chewing up huge chunks of your salary cap seldom translates into postseason success.
5. Red zone execution is paramount.
The Pats have been able to move the chains effectively. They set a record for 1st downs in 2012. But the name of the game is executing in the red zone and putting up TDs instead of FGs, and that’s hurt the Pats in recent years. The 2013 team finished 8th in red zone execution at 58.11%, down from 67.5% in 2012, and the worst % since 2009. The youth at WR hurt this year, and Gronk’s absence was a huge factor. Too often Brady was trying to force the ball to Edelman or Amendola, who should not be the primary red zone targets. Lack of adequate pass protection also killed drives in the red zone.
Given these basic areas of focus, some of the potential moves I'd like to see the Patriots make in the remaining FA and the draft include:
- Say goodbye to Ryan Wendell. Much as I’d like to see Alex Mack at the pivot, that’s not happening. Move Dan Connolly to center for now with Marcus Cannon at guard, and draft some quality depth to push them. Brandon Thomas, Joel Bitonio, Marcus Martin, Weston Richburg, Travis Swanson, Russell Bodine, Trai Turner, Billy Turner, Dakota Dozier, Cameron Fleming, Tyler Larsen, Bryan Stork, Spencer Long. You don’t have to use a top 50 pick to get starting caliber talent in a draft this deep.
- DON'T waste time on DeSean Jackson. Spending huge money on a me-first prima donna WR goes completely against the grain of the kind of offense I would like to see, regardless of his ability to make some big plays. What the Pats need is (1) too many weapons to cover (which they already have), (2) more time for Brady to use them, (3) better unpredictability and (4) keep the position cost down so that they are able to address other needs.
- DON’T waste precious draft picks on WRs given the depth at the position, but sign several UDFA WRs and bring them in to compete with the youngsters. In a deep draft, there will be talent that goes undrafted. Guys like Chris Boyd, Trey Bruton, Chandler Jones, Albert Wilson, and others. Get a mix of guys, including bigger receivers and smaller, quicker guys. Competition and depth are good.
- Sign Knowshon Moreno over LeGarrette Blount if the price is reasonable. Blount is a fine base RB who can pound opposing defenses. Moreno is a flexback who can be a 3 down weapon in the mold of Doug Martin or Matt Forte. Along with Shane Vereen he would give the Pats tremendous integration of the running and passing games.
- Add TEs and H-Backs. Maybe day 2 if the value is there for guys like ASJ, Amaro and Niklas, but definitely day 3. At least 2 in the draft. Jake Murphy, Richard Rodgers, Gator Hoskins, Trey Millard, Crockett Gillmore. Maybe Larry Webster or Logan Thomas as a TE conversion. I don’t see Colt Lyerla or AC Leonard as likely options, but they should be at least considered from the 6th round on. Some UDFAs like Blake Annen and Ted Bolser. Possibly move Mark Harrison to a hybrid WR/move TE role.
- Add 1 or more UDFA flexbacks to compete with Brandon Bolden. Guys like Zach Bauman, Ben Malena, Henry Josey, Lorenzo Taliaferro. The more the merrier. These guys are plentiful, cheap, and productive.
That’s probably enough as a starting point.
