Mock epic fail

[manxman2601]

Just to demonstrate how important the TE position is for us, go to the below site and scroll down to the chart showing Brady's performance throwing to his different receivers and then look at the drop off from last year when Brady throws to his tertiary receiver.

Advanced NFL Stats: Separating Receiver from Quarterback: A Start

The chart is called "Brady's QB Rating When Throwing To Targets".

 

[manxman2601]

I don't think Hageman is a reach at 29 so I don't feel that's applicable. I do however feel Amaro is a reach at 29 so I'll ask your question right back. are you going to reach just because you want a TE?

I'd be happy with Nix and Landry assuming when Landry was chosen there wasn't somebody at a higher position of need on the board. Again I'd rather they chose a veteran WR like Maclin. I agree with you that Landry is flying under the radar.

Well I don't think Hageman will be there at 29 so I'm not working on that assumption. As for reaching for a TE, there are four that I'd consider at 29 so if by some chance all four are gone then no, I wouldn't reach, but I think that a very unlikely scenario.

 

[manxman2601]

To the 2nd point -- agree that they're different players. Wasn't trying to equate them, just thinking about how the offense could look and of course it would be different with either of them.

To the first question - for that draft to happen, sounds like the trade would have had to have been 29 and the 2015 first rounder for Amaro. I'd be happy with those players as the overall result (pending the Pats being happy on Easley's knee condition), but it still seems quite the expense to get Amaro. Hypothetically, let's turn that around -- eliminate the Amaro trade, and instead select Hageman-Landry-Ellis-Rogers. I think the latter is preferable, where we get to keep the 2015 first round pick.

Sorry, I'm ignoring the trade because a) it's stupid and b) I wouldn't do it for Amaro. I'm working on the assumption that there is no trade and just going on the names.

 

[mayoclinic]

Believe me, WR is not a high priority for me either - it's just that there are one or two that I think provide extra value and Jarvis Landry is one of them (think Marvin Jones). Brandin Cooks is another I'd take in the 2nd round.

IF I were taking a WR day 2 I'd take Odell Beckham or Jordan Matthews.

 

[manxman2601]

I realise I'm alone on the importance of the TE for this team so an interesting question for me to address is how I would rank players at other positions like Nix, Hageman, Tuitt and Donald in relation to the TEs. I'm not sure yet.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I'm more of the "epic fail" opinion. I don't consider Amaro worth a 1st, much less trading up for. But that's not the point.

The mock conveniently doesn't say what we give up to move form 29 to 17. The difference according to the trade value chart is 310 points (640 vs. 950), or a little more than the value of out #62 pick (284 points). Those charts aren't perfect, but it's the best we have to go on. So what are we trading away to move up to 17? A 2015 1st? That would be an epic fail. A 2014 3rd, plus maybe something else? That would be a good trade value, and Dallas did take #74 from San Francisco to trade back from 18 to 31 (300 point difference, #74 valued at 220 points) last year. But #93 is valued at only 128 points. Big difference. So what's the cost of moving up to get Amaro?

And, having given up our 3rd round pick or likely much more to move up to 17, what do we do? We take receivers (Amaro is really a TE who plays WR) with our first 2 picks. Epic fail. Landry is at best an upgrade over Thompkins, and even that is questionable. And we completely ignore OL, DL and other needs, which we won't we able to address until day 3 at least, and we may have to give up some of our 2015 real estate.

Epic fail, IMHO.

I like Amaro but would not trade up for him, i would sit and take the TE remaining at their pick, if either Ebron or Sefarian-Jenkins were there then I would take one of them, and if all three were gone, which I doubt they will be then I would either take a pass rusher like Dee Ford or a wide receiver like Beckham or Lee if they were on the board, and then maybe make a move up for Niklas.

Ultimately it always comes back to who is actually on the board when they are close to picking and that can change strategy as it unfolds, as an example the Steelers were supposed to be taking Hightower with their first a couple of draft's back but then DeCastro fell and their needs on the interior OL outweighed LB and the guy they coveted was still there so they went offense. the same can be said in every draft, the unexpected happens and plans change. I love the idea of going TE/WR early and C after that, but if Nix fell to them unexpectedly I could definitely see taking Wilfork's eventual replacement and addressing the other needs with subsequent picks.


Imo this is going to be one of the most interesting offseasons in years and i am really looking forward to watching now they go about dealing with their needs and cap situation.

 

[mayoclinic]

The thing about the lines are that they can be addressed anytime, especially if you are talking interior OL.

Any position can be addressed anytime, if you are good/lucky enough. Aaron Hernandez and Jordan Cameron went 4th round, as did Jahri Evans and Josh Sitton, as did Geno Askins. This draft has plenty of OG depth that will fall to day 3, but the same can be said of TE.

 

[manxman2601]

IF I were taking a WR day 2 I'd take Odell Beckham or Jordan Matthews.

Very disappointed with Matthews at the Senior Bowl. So slow. Would take him day three but not earlier. Agree on Beckham Jnr though.

 

[manxman2601]

Any position can be addressed anytime, if you are good/lucky enough. Aaron Hernandez and Jordan Cameron went 4th round, as did Jahri Evans and Josh Sitton, as did Geno Askins. This draft has plenty of OG depth that will fall to day 3, but the same can be said of TE.

Except that the move TE position depends on athleticism. How many 260lb TEs will there be later in the draft that can run sub 4.7?

I did a study last year that showed that unless you are taking a DT in the top ten, taking one in the first round is no more a guarantee of success than taking one on day three. However, if you look at most of the leading TEs, they're taken mostly in the first three rounds. Sorry, but I disagree with your premise.

 

[mayoclinic]

I realise I'm alone on the importance of the TE for this team so an interesting question for me to address is how I would rank players at other positions like Nix, Hageman, Tuitt and Donald in relation to the TEs. I'm not sure yet.

FWIW, you're not alone. I'm fully on board with the importance of the TE position, I just don't think it's the only need, and don't particularly agree on day 1 values. I'm fine with Eric Ebron, but he'll be long gone. I don't grade ASJ and Amaro as 1st round talents. And I like some of the day 3 talent a lot.

I rate TE, DT, DE and interior OL as all comparable needs/values. I'd be fine taking the highest rated player available from any of those positions on my draft board.

 

[everlong]

Just to demonstrate how important the TE position is for us, go to the below site and scroll down to the chart showing Brady's performance throwing to his different receivers and then look at the drop off from last year when Brady throws to his tertiary receiver.

Advanced NFL Stats: Separating Receiver from Quarterback: A Start

The chart is called "Brady's QB Rating When Throwing To Targets".

Brady has been successful with and without top receiving TEs in his career. It's wasn't all about the TEs and more about the lack of reliable weapons as a whole.

Turning Welker, Hermandez, Gronk, Lloyd and Woodhead

into

Amendola, Hoo-Man, Gronk/Mulligan (LOL), Edelman, Dobson, Thompkins and Vereen (part time) took it's toll.

I also think you're underrating Chandler based purely on measurables and I'm not advocating breaking the bank for him.

 

[everlong]

I realise I'm alone on the importance of the TE for this team so an interesting question for me to address is how I would rank players at other positions like Nix, Hageman, Tuitt and Donald in relation to the TEs. I'm not sure yet.

I guess part of the issue is I've been arguing on the mock from every angle and you're just going at it from a we need a TE. I totally agree we do need one. If the trade had been for Ebron I never would have posted it. Although I fundamentally want to rebuild the lines I could wrap my head around trading up for him and what he would bring this team. He could IMO be somewhere between what AH was and Vernon Davis is. I think he's athletically more like a Davis and would need to improve his route running some but in time he could be as versatile as AH.

 

[Pats0204]

I realise I'm alone on the importance of the TE for this team so an interesting question for me to address is how I would rank players at other positions like Nix, Hageman, Tuitt and Donald in relation to the TEs. I'm not sure yet.

You are definitely not alone; although I think I like ASJ the best in this draft but I'm not sure I know enough of the top 3 or 4 yet.

 

[p8ryts]

Not a Johnny Manziel guy. Even if he is good at the next level, he looks too slight and will probably spend a lot of time on the injury list.

I've watched Teddy Bridgewater for a couple years. I don't know why the NFL scouts seem ambivalent about him. Good arm, good touch, reads defenses. I'm ready to trade TB to HOuston for their #1 this year and next and their #2 this year. Then we would be set for another 10 year run.

Blake Bortles is my second choice.

Not sold on Carr and Fales. Garropolo is in a trio with them for the next group.

For some reason I am enamored with Stephen Morris of Miami. Rocket arm, throws some amazing shots and then like in the Senior Bowl wasn't close on a 20 yard sideline to the right. Looked like foot placement. I would like to see him picked up low or UDFA and see what he could grow into as a #3.

I liked Keith Wenning also. There was another one in the same game I liked but I deleted my list by mistake. I'm an electronic marvel.

 

[manxman2601]

FWIW, you're not alone. I'm fully on board with the importance of the TE position, I just don't think it's the only need, and don't particularly agree on day 1 values. I'm fine with Eric Ebron, but he'll be long gone. I don't grade ASJ and Amaro as 1st round talents. And I like some of the day 3 talent a lot.

I rate TE, DT, DE and interior OL as all comparable needs/values. I'd be fine taking the highest rated player available from any of those positions on my draft board.

I guess part of the issue is I've been arguing on the mock from every angle and you're just going at it from a we need a TE. I totally agree we do need one. If the trade had been for Ebron I never would have posted it. Although I fundamentally want to rebuild the lines I could wrap my head around trading up for him and what he would bring this team. He could IMO be somewhere between what AH was and Vernon Davis is. I think he's athletically more like a Davis and would need to improve his route running some but in time he could be as versatile as AH.

I have never said it's our only need, I said it's our biggest need and I believe of all our needs, it's the one that can best be addressed early based upon what we know now. I can see an argument for taking Fiedorowicz-Rodgers but there's a lot of risk there. BB's likes TEs, in his draft history he has taken 3 in the first two rounds compared to five on the DL (discounted Cunningham who was drafted as OLB). There's almost as much chance BB takes a TE early as there is a defensive line player.

Look, if the doctors are telling BB that Gronk will back fully fit for the start of the season but that Wilfork and Kelly are toast then I'd agree with you all no question but that's not a given.

 

[everlong]

I have never said it's our only need, I said it's our biggest need and I believe of all our needs, it's the one that can best be addressed early based upon what we know now. I can see an argument for taking Fiedorowicz-Rodgers but there's a lot of risk there. BB's likes TEs, in his draft history he has taken 3 in the first two rounds compared to five on the DL (discounted Cunningham who was drafted as OLB). There's almost as much chance BB takes a TE early as there is a defensive line player.

Look, if the doctors are telling BB that Gronk will back fully fit for the start of the season but that Wilfork and Kelly are toast then I'd agree with you all no question but that's not a given.

I think part of the problem is the doctors aren't going to know on any of them until after the draft and long into FA so the Pats have to proceed on replacements for all of them. Gronk is young enough that he'll be back at some point and given how ACL injuries have gone we can probably expect he'l only be at best 90% at any time next year. Year two assuming he makes it without further injury he should be back. That all speaks to your point. However VW and Kelly might never return to form and they simply cannot expect Jones and Siliga to hold up to that snap count again and really they should be rotational players anyway.

I just think there's more ways to get around the TE issue. You don't like Chandler, fine. Pettigrew is another option or a big receiver like Bolden.

EDIT: Great debate and I love that nobody tried to steamroll the converation or got mad and took their ball home.

 

[everlong]

Exactly on the bolded. And Siliga, Jones, Vellano are a better crew than Hooman, Mulligan. At least they showed some ability to produce.

And agree wholeheartedly on your main point.

Hooman has really grown on me. Not that I think he's a starter but he does a lot of things well. Which isn't to be confused with Gronk doing a lot of things great but I really like him as a depth guy. Mulligan can go wrestle with the Hulkster.

We'll have to remember this on draft day when both Amaro and Hageman are on the board and Bill drafts Pryor or Van Noy. :singing:

Love both players but obviously not as needy of positions.

 

[manxman2601]

I think part of the problem is the doctors aren't going to know on any of them until after the draft and long into FA so the Pats have to proceed on replacements for all of them. Gronk is young enough that he'll be back at some point and given how ACL injuries have gone we can probably expect he'l only be at best 90% at any time next year. Year two assuming he makes it without further injury he should be back. That all speaks to your point. However VW and Kelly might never return to form and they simply cannot expect Jones and Siliga to hold up to that snap count again and really they should be rotational players anyway.

I just think there's more ways to get around the TE issue. You don't like Chandler, fine. Pettigrew is another option or a big receiver like Bolden.

EDIT: Great debate and I love that nobody tried to steamroll the converation or got mad and took their ball home.

1. I'd say that Siliga, Jones, Vellano are a better crew than Hooman, Mulligan.

2. I personally think there's more ways around the DT position. And I don't have a problem with Chandler, I just don't believe he offers this offense as much as a quality move TE would.

3. This offense died a death without Gronk and considering his injury history, having no quality cover for him seems foolhardy.

4. Considering how BB has flayed about looking for a TE (Fells, Shiancoe etc etc), you know it's a priority for him.

5. My next mock actually might have Louis Nix in the first round. It's not that I don't want a quality DT. And if you remember my "which player most excites you thread", my choice was Aaron Donald. I only ever said the mock you quoted was acceptable, I never said optimal.

 

[mayoclinic]

1. I'd say that Siliga, Jones, Vellano are a better crew than Hooman, Mulligan.

2. I personally think there's more ways around the DT position. And I don't have a problem with Chandler, I just don't believe he offers this offense as much as a quality move TE would.

3. This offense died a death without Gronk and considering his injury history, having no quality cover for him seems foolhardy.

4. Considering how BB has flayed about looking for a TE (Fells, Shiancoe etc etc), you know it's a priority for him.

Agreed on all points.

My next mock actually might have Louis Nix in the first round. It's not that I don't want a quality DT. And if you remember my "which player most excites you thread", my choice was Aaron Donald. I only ever said the mock you quoted was acceptable, I never said optimal.

I never said we have to go DT at 29, or even defense. Amaro at 29 is acceptable to me. Not my preference, but acceptable. It's trading up for Amaro and then following it with a WE that I find objectionable.

And I'm not convinced about Nix at 29, either.

 

[everlong]

5. My next mock actually might have Louis Nix in the first round. It's not that I don't want a quality DT. And if you remember my "which player most excites you thread", my choice was Aaron Donald. I only ever said the mock you quoted was acceptable, I never said optimal.

I know you would take a quality DT just as I would a quality TE. The problem with the mock is giving up what it would take to move from 29 to 17 in the real world to get a player who I feel would be marginal at 29.

BTW I didn't see the entire game as a disclaimer but the one thing that gave me pause about Donald was the FSU game. That line handled him. Granted one of the best lines in the country but in the NFL that's what you're looking at.