mgcolby’s Picker Thread MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2025

[mgcolby]

Ok because its the holiday's and I am sneaking away to do this. I'm leaving the comment short: I'm aware and in awe of Miami as you are or will be. I looked at and two things stand out. As you know its based on the last four games, well Miami still has two good games remaining in that window. I expect them to drop significantly with an asterisk next week because the best game in that window will drop off next week. The other part of the scenario, Miami is statistically doing well in the two highest weighted categories of the formula. So yes, I fully expect them to account for an EPR loss this week and they are a bit of statistical/situational anomaly.

 

[mgcolby]

Merry Christmas to everyone. Hope you have a great next few days! Here are the week 17 picks.

 

[mgcolby]

 

[mgcolby]

Season Record & Week 17 Results
​

Unfortunately, another losing week for the spread. That's a three week skid and week 18 is normally a tough week to try and turn the fortunes. More on that later. Here are the results:

 

[mgcolby]

Week 18​

For fun I went and used ESPN's playoff time machine. I used the EPR rankings to determine each game. I did not account for teams sitting starters (Chargers being the obvious one), just straight up win/loss based on higher lower ranking.

​

And just for the likely hood Trey Lance doesn't come out and light up the Broncos to the tune of er one more point than they have when the clock hits zeros:

​

 

[mgcolby]

Week 18
​

Carolina @ Tampa Bay:
The NFC South title comes down to this - the 8-8 Panthers at the 7-9 Buccaneers with both teams still alive for the division crown. Carolina clinches with a win or tie, while Tampa needs a victory combined with an Atlanta loss. Neither offense has been lighting it up lately - the Panthers average 20.3 points (25th) while the Bucs sit at 21.3 (23rd). This has the makings of a gritty, low-scoring divisional affair.

Carolina's edge is the turnover battle with a plus 0.8 margin, forcing 6 takeaways over the last four games while committing just 3 turnovers. Tampa's red zone efficiency at 72.7% (4th) gives them an edge when they get close, but their defense has allowed 5.64 yards per play (20th). The Panthers' ability to force turnovers could be the difference in a game where neither offense is explosive.

The model projects Tampa winning around 22-19, which is right at the 3-point spread. Carolina getting points with the division on the line makes this feel like a coin flip.

Seattle @ San Francisco:
The NFC West title is on the line as the 13-3 Seahawks visit the 12-4 49ers. Winner clinches the division, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. San Francisco leads the league in scoring at 38.3 points with a 64.2% third-down conversion rate - also best in the NFL. Seattle counters with the league's best defense, allowing just 8.8 points per game and 3.51 yards per play.

The 49ers' offense has been firing on all cylinders - 404 total yards per game with 7.85 yards per pass attempt (4th). Seattle's pass defense leads the league at just 5.45 yards per attempt allowed, setting up a fascinating strength-on-strength matchup. The Seahawks have forced 11 takeaways over the last four games with a plus 1.5 turnover margin (2nd), but San Francisco protects the ball with just 0.8 turnovers per game.

The model projects San Francisco winning around 40-27, which is a much larger margin than the 1.5-point spread suggests. The 49ers' league-leading offense against Seattle's elite defense is appointment viewing, but San Francisco's ability to sustain drives and finish in the red zone (72.7%, 4th) gives them the edge at home with everything on the line.

​

 

[mgcolby]

Shamlock's Pick of the Week​

Realize I have been slacking on the record:
Season record 9-4
Week 5: Detroit: -9.5 (W)
Week 6: Arizona/Indianapolis: Over 46.5 (W)
Week 7: Houston/Seattle: Over 41 (W)
Week 8: Pittsburgh: +3.5 (L)
Week 9: NE: -5.5 (L)
Week 10: Arizona/Seattle: Over 44.5 (W)
Week 11: Seattle/LA Rams: Over 48 (L)
Week 12: Dallas: +3.5 (W)
Week 13: Chicago: +7.5 (W)
Week 14: Washington +2.5 (L)
Week 15: NYJ/Jag Over 41.5 (W)
Week 16: NE/Bal Over 48.5 (W)
Week 17: NYG +1.5 (W)

 

[mgcolby]

Season Record & Week 18 Results
​

Not a losing week. But week 18 is always a bit rough on the picker. It did make up ground on the totals. Ended up splitting the week 8-8 against the spread a couple of tough games that got away from it but thems the breaks as they say.

 

[mgcolby]

Wild Card Weekend​

 

[mgcolby]

Will have some thoughts and writeups for these later this week. Apparently, the picker thinks it will be blowout weekend.

 

[jmt57]

Will have some thoughts and writeups for these later this week. Apparently, the picker thinks it will be blowout weekend.

Not shocked by Eagles - 49ers, but Bills at Jaguars is a surprise - though I am sure others will differ.

Though the more I think about it, less so if I just think of their recent outcomes, and not thinking about previous seasons.

Would have thought Texans would be favored by more.

Does the Chargers laying down in week 18 skew numbers, while Patriots had something to play for versus inferior teams?

 

[mgcolby]

Yes, some of the numbers are definitely a bit off given week 18. And I thought about that and didn't have an easy answer. By who played against who with what starters sitting etc. so just rolled with using week 18. I mean the Chargers offense hasn't been lighting it up anyway. And it probably averages out. Where it hurts was the SBR going 8-8 because of the teams not playing starters.

I didn't realize Buffalo hasn't won a road playoff game in 33 years. I slightly lean Buffalo here. But absolutely can see them losing. Although I don't think it will be by 10.

Houston's offense is middling and Steelers D is actually pretty good so it should be close. I was thinking 3-5 point win for Houston. Which is obviously where the line is. But if you notice it's fools gold game so based on the pickers historical record it's losing about 58% of these games that fall into that bucket, if memory serves me right.

I was surprised by all the double digit win predictions. I personally expect these games to be closer. But traditionally a lot of WC weekend games are blowouts.

 

[mgcolby]

Wild Card Weekend Model Analysis
​

I will note these writeups are from the model's perspective and some of the reasoning behind its predictions. These do not necessarily reflect my personal opinion of how these games will go. I will give you my picks at the end.

​

LA Rams @ Carolina Panthers
The 12-5 Rams travel to Charlotte as heavy favorites in their Wild Card matchup against the 8-9 Panthers. Rain is expected with a 55% chance of precipitation, which could impact both passing attacks. Los Angeles leads the league in scoring over the last four games at 36.8 points, racking up 452 total yards per contest with the 3rd-best yards per play mark at 6.7. Carolina has been on the other end of the spectrum, averaging just 16 points (28th) with a minus 69 point differential on the season.

The Rams' rushing attack has been elite at 5.7 yards per carry (3rd), and their passing game ranks 4th at 7.6 yards per attempt. Carolina's defense has actually been respectable at 4.9 yards per play allowed (12th), but their offense simply cannot keep up - the Panthers rank 27th in YPP and convert just 34% of third downs (26th). The wet conditions could favor LA's ground game over Carolina's pass-heavy approach.

The model projects the Rams winning around 32-18, covering the 10-point spread comfortably. Carolina's offensive limitations and minus 0.5 turnover margin make it difficult to see them keeping pace with the hottest offense in football. LA should advance with relative ease, rain or shine.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
The NFC North rivals meet in the playoffs with the 11-6 Bears hosting the 9-7-1 Packers on a brisk January evening at Soldier Field. Chicago has been solid at home, averaging 26.5 points (7th) with a plus 1.0 turnover margin (4th) over the last four games. Green Bay has struggled lately at 20.3 points (23rd) while allowing 28 per game (26th) - not exactly playoff-caliber defense.

The Packers' red zone efficiency has cratered to 40% (28th), meaning they're moving the ball but failing to finish drives. Chicago converts 44.6% of third downs (9th) and protects the football with just 0.5 turnovers per game. Green Bay's minus 0.5 turnover margin against a Bears defense forcing 1.5 takeaways per game is a tough matchup for the road team.

The model projects Chicago winning around 29-19, an outright victory as home underdogs getting 1.5 points. The Bears' turnover advantage and Green Bay's red zone struggles should be the difference. This feels like a game where Chicago controls the pace and Green Bay's offensive inconsistency proves costly in January.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo enters as a slim 1.5-point favorite but faces a Jacksonville squad that has quietly put together some solid recent numbers. The Jaguars are averaging 26.8 points over their last four games while allowing just 18.3 - both figures that would raise eyebrows given their early-season struggles. Buffalo's offense remains potent at 29.5 points per game in that span, but their defense has shown cracks, surrendering 5.5 yards per play.

The trenches could define this one. Buffalo's rushing attack ranks 5th in yards per carry at 5.2, but Jacksonville's run defense has slipped to 18th over the last month after ranking 2nd for the season - a potential exploitation point for the Bills ground game. On the flip side, Jacksonville's passing efficiency at 7.9 yards per attempt gives them paths to move the ball against a Buffalo secondary that has been bendable. The turnover battle looks even with both teams hovering around plus 0.5 margin recently.

The model projects Jacksonville winning at home, something around 34-23. With a spread this tight it's essentially a coin flip in Vegas' eyes, but Jacksonville's recent defensive tightening combined with their offensive rhythm tips the model toward the home side. Buffalo's defensive inconsistencies over the last month create enough doubt to lean Jaguars here.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
A fascinating Wild Card matchup pits the 12-5 49ers against the 11-6 defending champion Eagles in Philadelphia. San Francisco's offense has been humming at 32.5 points per game (4th) with the best third-down conversion rate in the league at 56%. However, they were held to just 3 points by Seattle's top-ranked defense in Week 18 - and now face another elite unit in Philly, who ranks 1st in yards per play allowed at 3.8.

The 49ers' passing attack ranks 4th at 7.6 yards per attempt, averaging 251 yards through the air. Philadelphia's pass defense at 6.4 yards per attempt allowed (5th) sets up another strength-on-strength battle. San Francisco's minus 0.5 turnover margin (21st) is a concern against a Philly defense that forces turnovers and a ball-secure Eagles offense with just 0.5 giveaways per game.

The model projects San Francisco winning around 32-22, an outright road victory as 4.5-point underdogs. The 49ers' offensive firepower against Philly's elite defense is appointment viewing, though the Seattle result raises questions about whether SF can move the ball against top-tier units. San Francisco's third-down efficiency will need to show up against a Philadelphia front that makes every yard difficult.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA Chargers @ YOUR New England Patriots
The 14-3 Patriots host the 11-6 Chargers in an AFC Wild Card matchup that looks lopsided on paper. New England leads the league in yards per play at 7.3 and yards per pass attempt at 8.5, racking up 434 total yards per game over the last month. Los Angeles has struggled offensively at 17.3 points (26th) with a dismal 39% red zone efficiency (27th) - they're moving the ball but not finishing drives.

The Patriots' rushing attack has been dominant at 6.2 yards per carry (1st) with 181 yards per game on the ground. The Chargers' defense ranks 3rd against the run at 4.2 yards per carry allowed, setting up a key matchup in the trenches. New England's 75% red zone rate (3rd) compared to LA's 27th-ranked mark is a massive efficiency gap that should show up on the scoreboard.

The model projects New England winning around 38-17, covering the 3.5-point spread comfortably. The Patriots' league-leading efficiency on offense against a Chargers team that cannot finish drives makes this a tough road matchup for LA. New England should roll at home in their first playoff game of the season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The 12-5 Texans visit the 10-7 Steelers in an AFC Wild Card matchup that should be a defensive battle. Houston leads the league in turnover margin at plus 1.3 (tied with Jacksonville), forcing 7 takeaways over the last four games. Pittsburgh counters with a plus 0.8 margin (6th) and remarkable ball security - just 0.3 turnovers per game, with only 1 giveaway over their last four contests.

The Steelers' ground game has been effective at 5.6 yards per carry (4th) with 149 rushing yards per game. Houston's run defense ranks 6th at 3.8 yards per carry allowed, creating an interesting chess match up front. Pittsburgh's defense allows 6.0 yards per play (26th), which could be exploited by Houston's passing attack averaging 7.2 yards per attempt (7th).

The model projects Houston winning around 23-22, which lines up with the Texans being 3.5-point road favorites. Pittsburgh's ball security and home-field advantage keep this razor thin, but Houston's turnover edge and passing efficiency give them the slight edge. This feels like a game decided in the final minutes.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I like the following teams to cover:

Panthers +10.5
Bears -1.5
Jacksonville +1.5/ML
49ers +4.5
Patriots -3.5
Steelers +3.5

I like the following to move on to the Divisional round:

Rams
Bears
Jaguars
49ers (really on the fence for this one)
Patriots
Texans

Good luck to all who partake! And let's ****ing go....Patriot playoff football is ****ing back!!!

 

[mgcolby]

Wild Card POTW​

 

[mgcolby]

Season Record & Wild Card Weekend Results

​

​

 

[mgcolby]

Divisional Round

​

 

[mgcolby]

Divisonal Round
​

Once again noting these writeups are from the model's perspective and some of the reasoning behind its predictions. These do not necessarily reflect my personal opinion of how these games will go.

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Buffalo travels to Mile High as 1.5-point underdogs in what shapes up as a coin flip on paper. The Bills have been defensively stout lately, allowing just 16.3 points per game (4th) while holding opponents to 4.4 yards per play (5th). Denver counters with their own solid defense at 19 points allowed (10th) and 4.3 yards per play (4th). With two quality defenses ready to make life difficult, this has the feel of a grind-it-out playoff affair.

The matchups create some interesting wrinkles. Buffalo's passing attack at 6.5 yards per attempt runs into Denver's elite pass defense allowing just 4.2 yards per attempt (3rd) - that's a strength vs strength battle the Broncos could win. On the flip side, Denver's 16th-ranked passing game at 6.3 yards per attempt faces Buffalo's 3rd-ranked pass defense - another tough sledding matchup. The ground game might be the release valve, though neither team's rushing attack or run defense stands out enough to claim a real edge here statistically, another strength on strength.

The model projects Buffalo squeaking out a 24-23 type game - an outright road win as slight underdogs. At nearly a pick'em, this comes down to whether Buffalo can steal one on the road at altitude. The lean is toward the Bills getting the 1.5 points in a game that feels destined to come down to the final possession.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco travels to Seattle as 7.5-point road underdogs - a big number to be getting in a divisional matchup. The 49ers bring a potent offense averaging 29 points per game (4th) with 6.1 yards per play (4th), but their defense has been leaky at 24.3 allowed (20th). Seattle's story is the opposite: their offense has been modest at 23.8 points (13th), but their defense has been absolutely suffocating - 9.5 points allowed (1st) and 3.7 yards per play (1st) over the last month.

The key matchup is San Francisco's offense against Seattle's elite defense. The 49ers' 3rd-ranked passing attack at 7.5 yards per attempt collides with Seattle's 2nd-ranked pass defense allowing just 3.7 yards per attempt - something has to give, and that battle likely decides the game. San Francisco's run game at 4.5 yards per carry (10th) faces Seattle's 8th-ranked run defense - no easy yards there either. Going the other way, Seattle's modest offense should find room against San Francisco's 19th-ranked pass defense, which could keep the Seahawks comfortable.

The model projects San Francisco winning outright around 30-25 as 7.5-point underdogs - a significant upset call. The lean is toward the 49ers pulling the road upset, with their offensive firepower enough to overcome Seattle's elite defense. Getting 7.5 points with a team projected to win outright is a strong spot.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Texans @ YOUR New England Patriots
New England hosts Houston as 3-point favorites with a chance of snow in the forecast - 26 degrees with a 32% precipitation probability. Houston trades their climate-controlled home for potential January weather in Foxborough. The Patriots have been the hottest team in football lately, ranking 2nd in points scored at 31 per game while allowing just 11.8 (2nd). Their 6.9 yards per play (1st) and 8.8 yards per pass attempt (1st) are elite numbers heading into the divisional round.

The matchups favor New England. The Patriots' league-leading passing attack at 8.8 yards per attempt has an edge against Houston's 11th-ranked pass defense allowing 5.6 yards per attempt - not a mismatch, but New England should find room to operate. Houston's offense faces a tougher road: their 22nd-ranked rushing game at 4.1 yards per carry doesn't inspire confidence, and their passing game at 6.9 yards per attempt meets a Patriots pass defense ranked 6th at 4.7 allowed. Houston's 5th-ranked run defense is their best unit, but New England can simply throw over the top.

The model projects a comfortable Patriots win around 34-23, covering the 3-point spread with room to spare. New England's offensive firepower combined with their home field and weather advantage against a dome team tips this one decisively toward the home favorite.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA Rams @ Chicago Bears
The Rams leave the comfy confines of SoFi for a frigid Soldier Field - 15-degree temps with snow flurries and 15 mph winds. LA enters as 4-point favorites carrying the league's hottest offense at 34 points per game, but their defense has been porous at 28 allowed (25th) while giving up 6.0 yards per play (29th). Chicago's offense has been rolling too at 29 points per game (4th), setting up what could be a shootout if the weather cooperates.

The brutal conditions at Soldier Field were supposed to be Chicago's edge, but LA's 3rd-ranked rushing attack at 5.0 yards per carry against Chicago's porous 22nd-ranked run defense could flip that script. If the Rams can pound the rock, the weather becomes their friend. Flip it around and Chicago's passing game at 7.1 yards per attempt (5th) gets to attack LA's struggling 21st-ranked pass defense - but will the Bears be able to air it out in the snow?

The model projects a nail-biter with LA edging it around 29-27, but that margin falls inside Chicago's 4 points. The lean is toward the Bears covering at home, though LA's ground game advantage in these conditions makes this closer than the home field narrative suggests.

 

[mgcolby]

Season Record & Divisional Round Results

​

 

[mgcolby]

Championship Sunday

​

 

[mgcolby]

Championship Sunday​

New England vs Denver Broncos
The #2 seed Patriots (16-3) travel to face the #1 seed Broncos (15-3) in a matchup of AFC powerhouses meeting for the first time this season. New England dismantled Houston 28-16 in the divisional round, extending their dominance to 5 straight wins and 15 of their last 16. Denver survived a scare from Buffalo, pulling out a 33-30 thriller - but lost starting QB Bo Nix to a broken ankle in the process. Backup Jarrett Stidham gets the start with a Super Bowl berth on the line, which explains the unusually large road favorite line.

The model - which doesn't factor injuries - still likes New England here based on the numbers. Their 1st-ranked passing attack (8.0 YPA) goes against Denver's 3rd-ranked pass defense (4.2 YPA allowed) - that's the game's marquee collision. On the ground, NE's 4th-ranked rushing game (4.9 YPC) has an edge against Denver's vulnerable 24th-ranked run defense (4.6 YPC allowed). Flip it around: Denver's 16th-ranked passing attack meets NE's 6th-ranked pass defense, while their 17th-ranked ground game faces NE's improved run defense. The Patriots have cleaner matchup advantages on both sides of the ball.

Mile High in January is a factor - 19°F at kickoff with Denver's altitude advantage. But asking Stidham to outduel New England's offense in a conference championship is a tall order. The model projects the Patriots winning 34-23. The Nix injury only adds to the case. Pick: NE -5, Over 41.5


LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks
The rubber match. LA (14-5) and Seattle (15-3) split their regular season series - the Rams won 21-19 at SoFi in Week 11, the Seahawks answered with a 38-37 thriller at Lumen Field in Week 16. Now they meet for the third time with a Super Bowl berth on the line. Seattle demolished San Francisco 41-6 in the divisional round; LA gutted out a 20-17 road win in brutal conditions at Chicago.

Seattle's defense has been lights out recently - allowing just 6, 3, and 10 points in their last three games against SF (twice) and Carolina. The exception? LA hung 37 on them at Lumen Field in Week 16. The Rams have already proven they can score here. LA's 3rd-ranked rushing attack (5.0 YPC) should keep them competitive against Seattle's 26th-ranked run defense, and they should be able to establish the ground game despite being a dome team facing 38°F temperatures with potential snow.

Seattle's home-field advantage looms large and they did win that Week 16 meeting, but it took 38 points to do it. The model sees Seattle winning a tight one 29-26, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. With both offenses capable of scoring, expect points. Pick: SEA -2.5, Over 47.5