mgcolby’s Picker Thread MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2025

[mgcolby]

Shamlock's Pick of the Week

Chicago +7​

 

[jmt57]

Shamlock's Pick of the Week

Chicago +7​

Yeah, I agree.

That seems way too high, moreso when you look at how the Eagles have been playing all of October and November.
Even in their wins they look very shaky and unimpressive.

 

[mgcolby]

Just an FYI tonight's picker pick is Det -3.5.

Predicted Score is:
Dal: 25.9
Det: 30.4
Det by 4.5
Total: 56.3
Over 55

 

[mgcolby]

Season Record & Week 12 Results
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Had the first EPR Push. The detailed view shows a "-", need to fix it to show "P".
ATS is heading in one direction and the Totals are heading in the opposite. I spent all week thinking the picker went 10-5-1 without realizing New Orleans scored a late TD covering the 5.5. So 9-6-1 it is. Not a bad two week run 21-8-1 ATS. By the week its 7-2 ATS and 3-4-2 for Totals.

​

 

[mgcolby]

Week 14 EPR​

 

[mgcolby]

 

[mgcolby]

Shamlock's POTW Record​

Apologies for not updating this recently. Been slacking.

Season record 6-3
Week 5: Detroit: -9.5 (W)
Week 6: Arizona/Indianapolis: Over 46.5 (W)
Week 7: Houston/Seattle: Over 41 (W)
Week 8: Pittsburgh: +3.5 (L)
Week 9: NE: -5.5 (L)
Week 10: Arizona/Seattle: Over 44.5 (W)
Week 11: Seattle/LA Rams: Over 48 (L)
Week 12: Dallas: +3.5 (W)
Week 13: Chicago: +7.5 (W)

 

[jmt57]

Week 14 EPR​

Green Bay and Miami, wow!

 

[mgcolby]

I am most surprised by Vegas hanging with Denver. GB is a weird team. And Miami has been playing well the past few weeks.

 

[mgcolby]

Shamlock's Pick of the Week 14​

Traveling so just throwing this out here old school.

Washington Commanders +2

 

[mgcolby]

Season Record & Week 14 Results

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[mgcolby]

 

[mgcolby]

Week 15
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I intended to fix the deltas which is why I delayed posting this. However, been working on other more important things and they will correct themselves over the next two weeks. I didn't like the dense ranking which had the team following a tie use the next number example below is Jax and LAR tied for 2nd, previously NE would show as #3 not #4 and the 32nd rank team would be ranked something other than 32. I didn't like that so I changed it. However the deltas are off because of all the ties I think Washington was originally ranked "26" instead of the true 32nd. Bottom line ignore the deltas (again). With Atlanta stealing the win last night it got the EPR off to a winning start on week 15.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 15 Shamlocks Pick of the Week
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[mgcolby]

Season Record & Week 15 Results
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All good things must come to an end but with one door closing another one opens. Like the Patriots winning streak the Pickers winning streak also came to an end. Although not as long as the Pats 10 game winning streak equally impressive was the Picker's 5 game win streak ATS. It came crashing down with a 5-10-1 week. On a positive note, the Totals finally broke through with a winning week going 9-7. EPR is still strong coming on as the season starts to really tighten up. ATS is still a healthy twenty-two games up at 57% on the season. The totals bringing up the rear at five games under.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 16 EPR​

One more week of shifty and odd deltas from the ranking style change. It will naturally correct itself and be back on track next week.

 

[mgcolby]

 

[mgcolby]

I tried to get this posted before kickoff but didn’t quite make it. I want to be clear up front that there are no changes to any predictions, lines, or picks from the weekly slate I posted on Tuesday. This post is strictly informational.


So why am I reposting Week 16 picks, something regulars here know I rarely do? I finally got around to testing my confidence rating system, and I wanted to share the results.


Below is the season record heading into Week 16, broken down by confidence level.



Based on those results, I’ve added a confidence rating column to the picker and introduced two new visual alerts. You’ll notice I haven’t highlighted Shamlock’s Pick of the Week yet. I usually prefer to wait closer to kickoff so I can factor in as much late information as possible. That said, I selected it earlier than usual this week so all three alerts would be visible. Shamlock’s Pick of the Week is marked with a green shamrock. It does not distinguish between ATS or totals in this view, it's shown in the weekly view I post.


The two new alerts are represented by pots of gold. One is a full pot of gold for five-star plays, and the other is a spilled pot of gold for one-star plays.


As you can see in the chart, five-star picks are hitting at 84.6 percent while accounting for just under 10 percent of all games since Week 5, specifically 9.3 percent. The pot of gold is simply a quick, quirky visual to flag those high-confidence spots. Digging a little deeper, the model is 5-0 when both the model and Vegas are within one to two points of each other and agree on the favorite. It is 6-2-2 when the predictions still fall within that one to two point range but disagree on who the favorite is.


On the other end of the spectrum are the one-star ratings, which I’m labeling the fade zone. The spilled pot of gold signals games that are worth considering as fades. As part of my personal approach, I try to be as honest and transparent as possible without giving away the recipe. If the data suggests fading the picker in certain spots, it only makes sense to acknowledge that. If I were to reclassify these one-star picks as fades, it would add five wins to the ATS season total, pushing it to 61 percent on the year. That’s nothing to scoff at.


So, welcome to the new fade zone picks.

I will note that I have not added a totals confidence. One not sure its 48% win rate warrants one and honestly I haven't narrowed down a pattern that structurally works i.e. more stars equals higher win percentage.

 

[mgcolby]

 

[mgcolby]

Season Record & Week 16 Results
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The picker having a two week slide here ATS, ironically as the totals are starting to come around. Also, a **** week to have its first Shamlock's gold loss when it agrees with Vegas (Jets game), the same week I introduce it. Seems par for the course. Still in the green for the season and overall having a good year ATS. EPR is rock steady, I'll have a comment on that later in the thread.