mgcolby’s Picker Thread MGCOLBY's Picker Thread 2025

[mgcolby]

It always has some head scratchers as I like to call them. I don't believe Lamar is playing this week, correct? If so there shouldn't be any outliers with the data. So we'll see, but Baltimore has been rough lately. They are in the bottom 10 in the league in just about every stat the formula uses for the predictions over the past four games (which is how many games the predictor uses). They have been bad. Obviously if he returns tomorrow then all that on goes out the window, on offense at least.

Its liked Miami for a few weeks now, obviously I don't agree with it and neither does reality. They rank high in two key metrics the picker uses and it kind of skewers it a bit.

 

[mgcolby]

Week 8 EPR Rankings:

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[mgcolby]

Shamlock of the Week for Week 8

Pittsburgh +3.5

 

[mgcolby]

Week 9 Predictions

Lamar is back! Here comes another Thursday night thrashing for the picker!

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[Guts]

Fooook you Shamlock

 

[mgcolby]

Noting corrections: Week 6 game I had incorrectly counted the Atlanta game (ATL +5.5) as a loss. So one +1 win. EPR has been a bit of a battle, but after a thorough review it turns out to be correct and accurate.

Why I stopped doing manual counting of this **** a long time ago.

Record:

Week 5 Record:
ATS: 8-6
Totals: 7-7
SU: 6-8
EPR: 8-6

Week 6 Record:
ATS: 10-5
Totals: 8-7
SU: 9-6
EPR: 9-6

Week 7 Record:
ATS: 8-7
Totals: 8-6-1
SU: 10-5
EPR: 9-6

Week 8 Record:
ATS: 5-8
Totals: 9-4
SU: 8-5
EPR: 8-5

Current Season:
ATS: 31-26 | 54%
Totals: 32-24-1 | 57%
SU: 33-24 | 58%
EPR: 34-23 | 60%
POTW: 3-1

Shamlock POTW
Season record 3-1
Week 5: Detroit: -9.5 (W)
Week 6: Ari-Indy: Over 46.5 (W)
Week 7: Houston/Seattle Over 41 (W)
Week 8: Pittsburgh +3.5 (L)

 

[mgcolby]

Week 8 Shamlock's Pick of the Week!

Homer pick? Maybe. Laying the chalk on this one! Too much going right for them. The winning streak will end but I like NE at home this week. And I haven't heard Gillette as loud as it was last week in probably a decade or better! Getting down with the Drake!

And seeing how the picker recorded its perfect score of the year on last weeks Pats game, it feel's right!

Note confidence number to star rating is not ready for primetime yet. But wanted to display the new view. So redacted it is!

 

[mgcolby]

And the season record in a cleaner look:

 

[mgcolby]

Week 9 EPR

The deltas have been a battle! But working through it.

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[mgcolby]

Season Record

Will post a full weekly and game by game results at some point today or tomorrow. Rough, rough week for the picker. Two losing weeks in a row. Season Total = ATS & Totals W-L record. Streak is weekly. First ever losing week for EPR since its inception.

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[mgcolby]

Week 10 Predictions

Hoping for a better week. But just looking at some of the games it looks a bit rough on the surface between injuries and trades.
TNF would look more promising if it wasn't such a large line. Divisional game, Denver likes to play come back kid etc.. Miami mustering up enough pride to hang with Buffalo? Tough to see that given the overall situation and losing waddle. Normally a 10 point home dog in a divisional game would be like free money. I don't believe it will be this time. Minnesota hanging with Baltimore? I can see it, Baltimore's defense has been bad. They are home dogs. Houston would be attractive with CJ Stroud, not so sure with Mills. But Houston's defense is playing at a very high level. And then Washington hanging with Detroit without RGIII II er Daniels, seems like a tough sled.

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[mgcolby]

Week 10 EPR

Finally have the deltas looking right. Not sure if the team color border is a nice touch or tacky looking. I'm on the fence.
Probably need to change the position after the tie slots to the next logical number not next number available i.e. 22-22-24 vs 22-22-23. Only showing "30" seems like it could cause confusion.

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[mgcolby]

Shamlock's Pick of the Week:

Apologies for not having the new view. But still a work in progress.

Arizona @ Seattle Over 44.5

 

[Guts]

Foook you Shamlock

 

[mgcolby]

 

[Ian]

Week 9 EPR

The deltas have been a battle! But working through it.

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I meant to respond to this. I like it, although I'd probably need to see it with the green you used. But I like it.

 

[mgcolby]

Record Breakdown Week 11

Back in the Green!

Just saw the streak is broken too. I will update this once its corrected.

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[mgcolby]

Week 11 EPR

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[mgcolby]

Week 11 Predictions​

Got to call out a few weather forecasts here. Buffalo, Cleveland and NY looked off and in fact are off compared to weather channel and a few others. The site I pull the data from is very reputable and has been fairly accurate until now. May look to change that up here soon.

I have a new feature I was going to put out tonight but will have to wait another day or so. Again, one step forward two steps back on this. What was working yesterday is broken today for no logical reason. But I have views for the picker of each team and how well the picker has fared in its predictions for each category. But week 10's games are breaking the search for some reason. However, going off memory from last week an oddity or so it felt to me it was 4-0 when predicting Jet game ATS through week 9 and it won again last week. So it is 5-0 in Jets games and I want to say it was 3-1 on NE which would be 4-1 now. But heed caution my friends. Divisional game on a short week.....And that is a hefty ****ing spread!

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[mgcolby]

As mentioned above, here is NE and NYJ Picker record

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