on the other hand, the deck is so stacked against anyone in SF that if josh gets canned after a year because he couldn't turn things around, other GMs/owners might not hold it against him. they would realize that the problem is probably with management/ownership and not the coaching.
it would be much worse for him if he went into a good situation and failed.
not saying josh should take the SF HC job, but i don't think failing in SF would be a death knell to his head coaching career.
Its debatable how good of a job this is. Going in after a house cleaning is usually one of the best scenarios you can get. I think the SF front office dysfunction is being overblown because York made a stupid comment, that other owners all believe but just wouldn't say publicly.
The franchise was fine building a contender with Baalke and Harbaugh. The problems were Baalke and Harbaugh fight over who had a bigger dlck thinking they deserved all the credit.
Tomsula was a terrible hire, and it was good management to realize that and oust him. Everything I have heard is that Tomsula is a quality guy and was very loyal and they felt he deserved the shot, but it was obvious he was in over his head.
Kelly got one year only because the GM was fired (2 years too late) because after winning the power struggle he led the team into sucking.
The next coach will have more latitude because of that history, and York is on record saying it is a project.
On the other side is the coach who gets offered the job.
It is my belief that someone with the makeup of a good NFL HC seeks challenges rather than shying away from them. They believe that they are the answer, and if they install their system, run it their way and are given time they will win championships. Ego? Maybe, but all the good ones have it. The best HCs believe they can make any franchise successful, as long their hands are not tied.
Additionally these people are very competitive and have an urgency to get control. They work their whole career to be able to be the man in charge, and they are aware that the next offer isn't guaranteed or even likely to come along.
Now maybe Josh McDaniels believes that he is so wanted that he can wait and pick his job. Maybe he believes that he should stay a coordinator until the perfect situation comes up. Maybe he takes HC interviews and tells the team to F-off and really believes that will lead to consideration from other teams.
But I would be very surprised.
Waiting for another job, better than the one offered, is perilous. First the good organizations rarely have openings and when they do, like Denver they often are filled through connections. Second, as much as people want to think every owner would beg Josh McDaniels to be their coach, many are choosing someone else, and when you look at the hires, it seems that what McDaniels has on his resume is not consistent with what gets you hired.
I think SF already knows who they are hiring, and its either Josh or Shanahan, and given the history with his father, I think Shanahan will be the guy. But we will know as soon as one or the other loses.