Mayo Made The Right Call, The Only Call - Brissett over Maye

[PP2]

Cheer up folks. Last Sunday without football.

 

[PScottman]

few 3rd and longs

This OL makes 3d and longs pretty frequently with their high penalty rate (you saw the last preseason game right?), negating the "3 step drop/quick throws" approach.

 

[mikey m]

It's not the worst offensive line ever, if all 5 starters can actually play, they'll be fine, outside of left tackle question mark which can be mitigated with play calling. Maye was sacked once, Brissett once. A 4.1% sack rate.

If they have to play backups it gets sketchy but there is nothing in the tape suggesting the top 5 cannot be an adequate line.

Sack % is as much on the QB. That # historically follows the QB behind any line within a few percent. You'd like to be under 6% ideally but over 7.8% has been the number most closely associated with QB busts.

I calculated it from PFF at around 35% pressure rate,
Mahomes last year was under pressure 35.5% of the time

Both numbers are a little high because KC Tackles were terrible last year but also a product of the OC, QB and the line.

Jacoby gets sacked at a high % throughout his career. Not the ideal guy behind an average or worse line.

35% pressure rate with a solid portion of the preseason being essentially our starting OL (if Lowe is better than any Chuk, Wallce, Anderson, it ain't by much & who knows if Andrews is gonna be back and ready to go) playing against 3rd stringers. That pressure rate could actually be 50% + the first four weeks.

 

[PScottman]

This isn’t a war.

Game theory and military doctrine have been intertwined since the development of game theory post-World War II.

"The United States military doctrine of decision prescribes that a commander select the course of action which offers the greatest promise of success in view of the enemy's capabilities of opposing him. This paper analyzes two battle decisions of World War II, and develops the analogy between existing military doctrine and the “theory of games” proposed by von Neumann. The techniques of game theory permit analysis of the risk involved if the commander deviates from current doctrine to base his decision on his estimate of what his enemy intends to do rather than on what his enemy is capable of doing." Military Decision and Game Theory, O. G. Haywood, Jr., Published Online:1 Nov 1954
The NFL adopted game theory as well "NFL teams are increasingly using statistical modeling based on game theory to determine what type of play call to use to win games.". and "Game theory is increasingly becoming a frequently used tool in capturing the risk to reward ratio of certain strategies, as well as quantifying the difference between perceived optimal strategy and true optimal strategy." https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46554851_Optimizing_Football_Games

Football at all levels has been using military planning concepts for decades. Strategic Planning: Aligning Your Program Through a Systematic Approach This article references the Joint Planning Process (https://www.airforcespecialtactics..../assets/joint-pub-jpub-5-0-joint-planning.pdf) almost verbatim and it is a known fact that Belichick and his father both utilized military planning schema in their programs. Other coaches like Pete Carroll and Bum Phillips have also referenced use of military planning doctrine in their coaching.

As such it is an apt, and appropriate, analogy to be used as comparative.

 

[1960Pats]

I'm hoping to get a "Play Drake" supporter to address this question: if he is seriously injured -- even career ending -- due to the abysmal OL we have, will you still think that he "belong[ed] in there"? Alternatively, if that happens will you say the risk was worth the reward? Do you think the risk is negligible, despite JB getting hurt already?

He belongs in there and sooner is better than later. A mythical injury doesn't change that. At what point do the "Sit Drake" supporters feel the OL will be ready enough to let the best player at the most important position play?

I think it might matter to the players. If Maye actually gives them a better option and the players know that then that could cause an issue if Brissett struggles.

In the end, it's been five years since they've had an actual starting QB and I can wait a few more weeks to see if we have another.

 

[1960Pats]

Successful head coaches in the NFL are rare breed and fanatical about details and strategy. We will see if Mayo has that degree of fanaticism.

All HCs are probably fanatical about details and strategy, but without the players they aren't successful. Besides, coaching isn't exactly brain surgery. That's why I see the GM as more important than the HC.

 

[1960Pats]

Funny how so many posters hated BB grunting and not talking after games and how they're fans and deserve more. Mayo gives more and that's not good either. Can't compare Mayo to BB, BB's the greatest ever, we can only hope Mayo is good.

I watch the pressers now that Bill's gone. It got to where there was no point in watching them.

The fans deserve more than grunts and groans and the media deserves a chance to do it's job.

 

[Ring 6]

This OL makes 3d and longs pretty frequently with their high penalty rate (you saw the last preseason game right?), negating the "3 step drop/quick throws" approach.

So your plan is to ****** your QBs development instead of coaching up the ol on how to line to? Do you throw the baby out with the bath water too?

 

[Ring 6]

Game theory and military doctrine have been intertwined since the development of game theory post-World War II.

"The United States military doctrine of decision prescribes that a commander select the course of action which offers the greatest promise of success in view of the enemy's capabilities of opposing him. This paper analyzes two battle decisions of World War II, and develops the analogy between existing military doctrine and the “theory of games” proposed by von Neumann. The techniques of game theory permit analysis of the risk involved if the commander deviates from current doctrine to base his decision on his estimate of what his enemy intends to do rather than on what his enemy is capable of doing." Military Decision and Game Theory, O. G. Haywood, Jr., Published Online:1 Nov 1954
The NFL adopted game theory as well "NFL teams are increasingly using statistical modeling based on game theory to determine what type of play call to use to win games.". and "Game theory is increasingly becoming a frequently used tool in capturing the risk to reward ratio of certain strategies, as well as quantifying the difference between perceived optimal strategy and true optimal strategy." https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46554851_Optimizing_Football_Games

Football at all levels has been using military planning concepts for decades. Strategic Planning: Aligning Your Program Through a Systematic Approach This article references the Joint Planning Process (https://www.airforcespecialtactics..../assets/joint-pub-jpub-5-0-joint-planning.pdf) almost verbatim and it is a known fact that Belichick and his father both utilized military planning schema in their programs. Other coaches like Pete Carroll and Bum Phillips have also referenced use of military planning doctrine in their coaching.

As such it is an apt, and appropriate, analogy to be used as comparative.

No

 

[Fuzz]

When the Patriots drafted Maye, the plan was to make him sit as much as his entire rookie year. There was a reason for that. Not to protect his health, but because the Pats drafted a QB with potential HOF raw talent but lacked a lot of the fundamentals to be a good QB in the NFL. The kid has a lot to learn.

I mean he footwork issues, throwing motion issues, apparent inability to read defenses at an NFL level, etc. Hell, he has never actually played a meaningful snap under center since high school. He was always in the shotgun in college. And he had a mediocre team around him that hindered his development.

He appears to be a fast learner. But he had a lot to learn. So he still probably has a lot to learn. No reason to switch strategies and rush him on the field just because Brissett has sucked and Maye has outplayed him. It is about making Maye a franchise and possibly even an elite QB rather than get wins this year.

I’ve noticed that you’ve commented this a couple of times recently, so just wanted to clear up a misconception. The vast majority of college qbs nowadays do not play meaningful snaps under center, so they are all in the same boat there. Also, ever since the 2007 Patriots popularized heavy shotgun usage, playing under center is becoming less common in the NFL with every passing year. According to the link below, 83% of offensive snaps across the league are now in some type of shotgun formation.

Jared Goff thrived when under center and the Lions played to his strength

Fans of a certain vintage might recall when quarterbacks were nearly always taking snaps under center. The shotgun formation was a novelty instead of the norm. In today's NFL, over 83 percent of all offensive snaps come with the quarterback in some form of…

lionswire.usatoday.com

 

[palialka]

I think you’re spot on.

I’m pretty sure Maye will take over at some point around midseason as long as the OL has some continuity and shows improvement. I don’t want him getting killed behind a porous line if that can be helped.

The other factor is Brissett. If he’s ballin’ out, then there’s no reason to rush Maye out there.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I watch the pressers now that Bill's gone. It got to where there was no point in watching them.

The fans deserve more than grunts and groans and the media deserves a chance to do it's job.

Bill hated the press and considered them idiots. Not without reason. Instead of actually watching game film, which would require real work, the press likes to endlessly pick apart anything that is said in a interview. Look at the endless whining in the press about Mayo's flip-flopping as if it was he end of the world.

As Jim Rome said about Mayo, he needs to be boring and not say anything substantive. Don't give the idiots in the press anything blather about....

 

[Pape]

At what point do the "Sit Drake" supporters feel the OL will be ready enough to let the best player at the most important position play?

last year, the first five or six games had constantly shifting line configuratons... week 6 or 7 they were able to settle on the best rotation, one that was consistent across the board in terms of being capable run blockers and adequate pass blockers? and was it two years prior when the line was unstable, and bringing in Mcdermott finally solidified the line play, at least to a better decree than it previously was?

Its going to be like that... maybe the final line rotation has already been established... maybe they just need a few games to gel, to get their communications down... From what I understand a lot of the line calls are now on the center, not the qb... combine that with the new blocking system in place, there will be an adjustment period...

so best answer to your question? You'll know it when you see it.

 

[KCSVEN]

35% pressure rate with a solid portion of the preseason being essentially our starting OL (if Lowe is better than any Chuk, Wallce, Anderson, it ain't by much & who knows if Andrews is gonna be back and ready to go) playing against 3rd stringers. That pressure rate could actually be 50% + the first four weeks.

They were ranked 13th overall in preseason in PFF rating, Preseason is preseason, but what they did in preseason really is not indicative on how it will go. The LT is a big question mark, the other positions, if manned by the best 4 assuming everyone is healthy, have shown in preseason to be fine.
If Sow and Lowe are both out, the depth is weak, will be a challenge.
Bengals were middle of the road on sacks last year, worst in yards per attempt on defense for passing and overall a below average defense. Even though they are on the road the line should perform well, if they do not play well against the Bengals, and they have their starters, then we can say the issue is real.

 

[PScottman]

No

Your declaration and decision holds zero merit given your meaningless status and is therefore ignored. Goodbye.

 

[Rob0729]

I’ve noticed that you’ve commented this a couple of times recently, so just wanted to clear up a misconception. The vast majority of college qbs nowadays do not play meaningful snaps under center, so they are all in the same boat there. Also, ever since the 2007 Patriots popularized heavy shotgun usage, playing under center is becoming less common in the NFL with every passing year. According to the link below, 83% of offensive snaps across the league are now in some type of shotgun formation.

Jared Goff thrived when under center and the Lions played to his strength

Fans of a certain vintage might recall when quarterbacks were nearly always taking snaps under center. The shotgun formation was a novelty instead of the norm. In today's NFL, over 83 percent of all offensive snaps come with the quarterback in some form of…

lionswire.usatoday.com

Sure teams use the shotgun more than ever, but by your stats 17% of the snaps are under center. That isn't an insignificant percentage.

I may have overstated it a bit, but it something he has to learn at the pro level. And unlike say Caleb Williams who has good footwork, Maye has footwork issues that can be exacerbated for when you have to add a three or five step drop that is something he isn't comfortable with.

But from what I can see of the Van Pelt system, they don't run the shotgun as much as most other teams. I could only find stats for 2022 for the Browns, but they only ran the shotgun 58% of the time. That means 42% of the time the QB was under center.

 

[Rob0729]

Who told you what the plan was?

They never said outright, but there were plenty of reports that said the plan was to have him sit and learn as much as possibly his entire rookie season.

 

[Ring 6]

They never said outright, but there were plenty of reports that said the plan was to have him sit and learn as much as possibly his entire rookie season.

No there weren’t

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

He belongs in there and sooner is better than later. A mythical injury doesn't change that. At what point do the "Sit Drake" supporters feel the OL will be ready enough to let the best player at the most important position play?

When the OL is playing well enough to provide adequate protection. There is no formula, but we will know it when we see it. I expect them to give up 5-7 sacks per game over the first 4 games, so if we see them get it down to league average 2-3, that will be a good sign.

I think it might matter to the players. If Maye actually gives them a better option and the players know that then that could cause an issue if Brissett struggles.

That sounds like a coaching task. Look, the players know the score better than we do. They will understand the need to avoid serious injury to the franchise QB when the OL is garbage.

In the end, it's been five years since they've had an actual starting QB and I can wait a few more weeks to see if we have another.

Barring injury, I expect to see him by midseason.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I wouldn’t even worry about Brissett starting because it will be short lived due to his play or him getting injured. The last preseason game was a preview of what we all feared during the off season.