Do you think we should/would have passed on Williams if we had picked first in the draft?
I think they would have taken Williams from what I read. 90% had WIlliams as #1, many had him as a generational prospect, I didn't see that at all, not that it's impossible but just on an odds basis based on history.
I wanted to trade 3 1st round picks if Washington or Bears were thinking Maye, HE, IMHO is the generational prospect so they should have taken him over Williams, but they would not have done that is my guess.
I believe Williams has a 50% chance of being Trevor Lawrence level good, A middle of the road solid but not great franchise QB, 25% chance to bust, 20% slightly better than Lawrence and like a 5% chance of being a top 5 QB. I would have taken him, Maye or McCarthy because they all showed SOME traits that equate to at least a top 15 or so NFL starter.
If you look at all the bad QB's starting, and you realize you can't wait for a Drake Maye , Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert to come along, you have to take a guy that might just be good, not great or else you end up with a bad QB and have no chance.
I think NFL teams seem to put emphasis on certain traits that are not the ones that equate to NFL success, to a point. Those traits are great to get you to narrow the field down and most NFL starters are first round picks so they get that part right. But then they seem to overweight the wrong traits to understand which QB's are true first round picks and which are low odds and not really worthy of a first.
They are all human and can overcome the odds and nothing is 100% certain, but to me, a first-round pick, you should heavily go by odds of success.