The tie-breaker for a division title is:
1. Head-to-head record
2. Division record
3. Common opponents
4. Conference record
If there are three teams with the same record, you first eliminate on team using the above criteria. Then once it is down to two teams, you start at the top again (head-to-head) and work your way down to get a winner.
The tie-breaker for a wild-card uses the above formula if the teams are from the same division. For teams from different divisions first you eliminate multiple teams from the same division, just like above. After that the NFL uses:
1. Head-to-head record
2. Conference record
3. Common opponents (minimum 4)
4. Strength of victory
5. Strenght of schedule
Within the AFC East the Pats are 1-1 with both the Jets and Dolphins; the Jets beat Miami in week one and they meet again in week 17.
In the division the Jets are 3-1; the Pats and Dolphins are 3-2.
Common opponents would be the AFC West, NFC West, and division opponents.
The Jets are 4-4 (plus 1-1 against the Pats and 1-0 against the Dolphins) with games remaining against the Bills, at Seattle, and Miami.
The Dolphins are 7-1 (plus 1-1 against the Pats and 0-1 against the Jets) with games remaining against the 49ers, at KC, and at the Jets.
The Pats are 6-1 (plus 1-1 against the Jets and 1-1 against the Dolphins) with games remaining at the Raiders, vs. Arizona, and at the Bills.
The Colts would win a tie-breaker with the Pats due to the head-to-head win. The Pats are 5-5 within the conference and at best can finish 7-5. The Ravens are 7-3, so it is unlikely the Pats win a tiebreaker with them.
If the Dolphins beat the Jets, we need for Miami to lose one of their other games, such as at KC. If the Jets beat the Dolphins, they would win a tiebreaker with Miami due to sweeping them head-to-head. The Pats, would then need for them to lose to Buffalo in order for the Jets division record to drop to 4-2. Then if the Pats win their three remaining games, they would then win a tiebreaker with the Jets based on a better record against common opponents.
In the conference the Jets and Dolphins are both 6-4; the Pats are 5-5.
Bottom line is the Pats need to win out, and whoever wins the Jets-Dolphins game, that team needs to lose one other game. If the Jets win out, they finish ahead of the Pats based on a better division record; if the Dolphins win out, they finish ahead of the Pats based on a better record against common opponents.
To finish ahead of 9-4 Baltimore the Pats need to win out and the Ravens need to lose two games, which could very well happen; they get the Steelers next week and are at Dallas the following week, before finishing with Jacksonville.
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