Mac Jones vs. the other rookie QBs

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I never pay attention to college football analytics, as they are inherently flawed. Because certain programs (Notre Dame for example) and conferences (Big10) have been overrated for decades because of history and nostalgia, comparing performances in different conferences cannot be boiled down to analytics only.

Dismissing analytics bc other conferences are "overrated" makes a lot of sense. This is smart.

Analytics are just a piece to the puzzle. Some things are useful some are not.

Most will agree that the SEC is on a different level conference-wise. I also feel like the SEC West is a different level than the SEC East. SEC West had every one of its teams except LSU ranked at some point in this season. The Alabama 2020 schedule was historically difficult. All SEC games in the SEC West, and faced the best the East had to offer as well. Comparing 11-0 in the SEC last year to 6-0 in the Big10 for Fields is the definition of apples and oranges.

The SEC is the best conference but that's not the question at hand. Even if it is the best overall it doesn't mean Fields didn't face better defenses than the rest of the class. This isn't hard to grasp.

Also don't people know how to debate or put forth a good argument anymore? The fact that you watched every snap on broadcast means very little with respect. Essentially that's all I'm seeing.

 

[Weishuhn]

Dismissing analytics bc other conferences are "overrated" makes a lot of sense. This is smart.

Analytics are just a piece to the puzzle. Some things are useful some are not.

The SEC is the best conference but that's not the question at hand. Even if it is the best overall it doesn't mean Fields didn't face better defenses than the rest of the class. This isn't hard to grasp.

Also don't people know how to debate or put forth a good argument anymore? The fact that you watched every snap on broadcast means very little with respect. Essentially that's all I'm seeing.

You justified your claim that Fields faced better defences than his peers on some analytics graphic you found somewhere. Those defensive stats were based on those Big10 defenses facing the overrated Big10 offenses. This point is not "hard to grasp". Last year's Georgia, Texas A&M, and even LSU defenses were far superior to any Big10 defense in 2020, and Mac shredded them all, as well as ND and Ohio State in the playoffs. Not saying Fields is garbage but also not buying any of your arguments that he had a tougher road in the 7 games he played before losing the Championship game.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

You justified your claim that Fields faced better defences than his peers on some analytics graphic you found somewhere. Those defensive stats were based on those Big10 defenses facing the overrated Big10 offenses. This point is not "hard to grasp". Last year's Georgia, Texas A&M, and even LSU defenses were far superior to any Big10 defense in 2020, and Mac shredded them all, as well as ND and Ohio State in the playoffs. Not saying Fields is garbage but also not buying any of your arguments that he had a tougher road in the 7 games he played before losing the Championship game.

Again analytics aren't perfect but you sound like a fanboy saying casual stuff.

2020


It's not like you're offering up anything besides your opinion.

Are you the same poster who said Mac never had underthrown his WR's? If so that speaks volumes about your opinion.

 

[Kasmir]

Again analytics aren't perfect but you sound like a fanboy saying casual stuff.

2020
View attachment 38941

It's not like you're offering up anything besides your opinion.

Are you the same poster who said Mac never had underthrown his WR's? If so that speaks volumes about your opinion.

Next gen stats for Fields in the NFL are so far unimpressive -- negative in both CPOE and EPA / play -- while Mac excels. To what do you attribute Fields' poor performance? Mac is obviously at the very least much more NFL ready -- why didn't that show in the 2020 NCAA next gen stats?

 

[Kasmir]

Again analytics aren't perfect but you sound like a fanboy saying casual stuff.

2020
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It's not like you're offering up anything besides your opinion.

Are you the same poster who said Mac never had underthrown his WR's? If so that speaks volumes about your opinion.

It is true that if you take the last 6 weeks only, Fields has improved a lot (unlike Lawrence and Wilson). He's clearly now the 2nd best rookie QB and has caught up some with Mac -- although Mac is recently playing at an elite level by next gen stats.

Wilson is likely a bust and Lawrence has a long way to go to prove he's a "generational" talent. Looking back 10 years, any 1st year QB playing as badly as Lawrence ended up a bust. Lawrence looks much more like Haskins or Rosen than a generational QB. The Urban Meyer down draft needs to be profoundly strong to explain the suckage.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

Next gen stats for Fields in the NFL are so far unimpressive -- negative in both CPOE and EPA / play -- while Mac excels. To what do you attribute Fields' poor performance? Mac is obviously at the very least much more NFL ready -- why didn't that show in the 2020 NCAA next gen stats?

View attachment 38957

If you watch some Bears Football you see a combination of a Bad Offense Line and questionable Play calling/game Plan.
It has got a little better, but they still don’t use Fields dual threat to give him some „easier“ plays/ plays who match his skill set and state of development. I feel like they want to make him a pocket passer but he needs more time to be so. They need more RPO, PA, Roll-Out stuff to match his skill and this would help with their Pass Protection as well. Hell even designed QB Options/Runs should be called. This would make the passing game easier for him.

 

[catent]

Imagine if the 49ers took Mac at 3, and then traded Jimmy to the Pats for a second rounder plus another pick. Mac would have been the day one starter in SF with a loaded roster and would be judged by how Jimmy would have been fairing with the Pats.

I think scheme and who drafts you, have as much to do with QB sucess as the talent the QB possesses.

I think the Pats would have the same record if they had either Jimmy or Lawrence at QB instead of Mac.

I think Lawrence has the tools to be a really good NFL QB, but I tend to think this team would have 1-2 fewer wins with Lawrence at QB. Jimmy, though, yeah, I think the team has essentially the same record. I think really highly of Jimmy, although I'm happy we have Mac because he's on a rookie contract and seems to have an edge/drive to him that I'm not entirely convinced Jimmy has.

 

[Weishuhn]

Again analytics aren't perfect but you sound like a fanboy saying casual stuff.

2020
View attachment 38941

It's not like you're offering up anything besides your opinion.

Are you the same poster who said Mac never had underthrown his WR's? If so that speaks volumes about your opinion.

Including LSU in my prior quote may have been an over-reach, but lashing out at others who challenge your own fanboy posts about Fields is juvenile and rude. That's OK, I'm a big boy and can take it. The posters above are all quoting NFL analytics, which in my "opinion" are much more valid than NCAAF analytics because they are based on more common opponents and a more homogeneous talent pool. That is why I found your claims unconvincing. Come at me again if you like, it won't hurt my feelings.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Including LSU in my prior quote may have been an over-reach, but lashing out at others who challenge your own fanboy posts about Fields is juvenile and rude. That's OK, I'm a big boy and can take it. The posters above are all quoting NFL analytics, which in my "opinion" are much more valid than NCAAF analytics because they are based on more common opponents and a more homogeneous talent pool. That is why I found your claims unconvincing. Come at me again if you like, it won't hurt my feelings.

I called you a fanboy bc your post didn't come off as objective and somewhat dismissive. Nothing wrong with being a fanboy or a homer but it's not where you go for real insight or objective thought. There are things I fanboy over and my opinions are 100% bias. It is what it is but I recognize it, I'm far from perfect.

My bad I'm sorry @Weishuhn

Here's TAMU from 2020. Again like PFF, other sites and metrics, Football Outsiders isn't the gospel but useful. Like LSU, you are overrating TAMU.


I'm not trying to get in a contest of who faced the toughest defenses or ranked opponents and measure it up to the inch.

I just think you and the other Bama fan are underselling Fields in that area. When it's beyond clear he faced plenty top tier opponents and performed well in those games. As well as Lawrence if you compare against ranked opponents.

Also there are like 4-5 defenses that matter in college football. It's just not something that's influential on a large scale. Not that they're not important but very few schools can lat claim to a "great defense or special teams" just few and far between in the college landscape.

 

[BTTA]

Lawrence may become good, or he may not. I see no reason to believe he is a turd, but he has been shockingly unproductive given talent around him that is, at least on paper, serviceable. He has no excuse to be producing at Cam Newton 2020 levels even in the face of Jacksonville's systemic dysfunction. A great QB will elevate his team to better than 2 wins.

Which of the great QB's had rookie years where they performed like great QB's?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Which of the great QB's had rookie years where they performed like great QB's?

Marino had a very good rookie year in 83. He had a great D and running game to lean on but he was very good on his own

 

[Kasmir]

Which of the great QB's had rookie years where they performed like great QB's?

1st year rather than rookie year is what's important, as lots of QB's sat out there rookie years. I asked the opposite question: which QB's had as bad a 1st year as Lawrence and Wilson are having (Fields looks much better) but ended up as good QB's (let alone generational talents). I couldn't find any in the past ten years using the EPA/Play + CPOE combined metric at rbsdm.com. I think Blaine Gabbert is the best improver of that terrible lot. Josh Allen was not good in his first year but vastly better than Wilson or Lawrence have been (so far).

I didn't research the inverse question: which QB's had great 1st years by next gen metrics but then regressed to mediocrity. I think the prime example of that might be RG-III, but as I said I didn't really research it.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I don’t think the others are as smart as Mac Jones. The rumor is that he was helping a 10 year vet in Cam learn the offense. Mac looks like he’s been in NE for many years.

Ranking of the QB’s from best to worst that would do well in NE:

1. Lawerence
2. Fields
3. Wilson
4. Lance

 

[Pats1971]

I don’t think the others are as smart as Mac Jones. The rumor is that he was helping a 10 year vet in Cam learn the offense. Mac looks like he’s been in NE for many years.

Ranking of the QB’s from best to worst that would do well in NE:

1. Lawerence
2. Fields
3. Wilson
4. Lance

I am not sure being smarter than Cam Newton is a big win. Mac is playing well, but he is playing like a rook from how the pats use him. He is very protected with his passing and what he is allowed to do. On a bad team rook QB's dont get that, they get everything thrown at them and they have to carry the load, most of the time they cannot do this.

 

[Kasmir]

I don’t think the others are as smart as Mac Jones. The rumor is that he was helping a 10 year vet in Cam learn the offense. Mac looks like he’s been in NE for many years.

Ranking of the QB’s from best to worst that would do well in NE:

1. Lawerence
2. Fields
3. Wilson
4. Lance

So far Fields is way ahead of those guys. I think he's going to be a good QB.

Trey Lance is still an unknown but a huge risk because he has limited experience and that only against FBS competition.

Wilson has been terribad. Lawrence has been bad as well. Both guys will continue to get chances because of their draft position, but they are way underperforming their hype.

 

[TheRainMaker]

So far Fields is way ahead of those guys. I think he's going to be a good QB.

Fields needs to clean up his slow throwing motion. Seems like he finds a way to run if his read isn’t immediately available.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Fields needs to clean up his slow throwing motion. Seems like he finds a way to run if his read isn’t immediately available.

I agree. I am not an expert but to me Fields struggles to read the defense, and is looking around, not going through a progression. He does better when he scrambles and has more time, but that is common to QBs that do not process quickly. Wilson, Mahomes, and Murray all seem to scramble and throw successfully but that seems very risky to me. In his younger years Cam would scramble and run and was league MVP one year, so that scrambling formula can work and does help the guys that can not read the defense well.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I am not sure being smarter than Cam Newton is a big win. Mac is playing well, but he is playing like a rook from how the pats use him. He is very protected with his passing and what he is allowed to do. On a bad team rook QB's dont get that, they get everything thrown at them and they have to carry the load, most of the time they cannot do this.

I have seen other posters say the same thing but I still do not understand what is meant. How is Max protected in what "he is allowed to do"? Do you have a few examples so I can understand? And how are the other QBs not protected in their offensive schemes? Do you have a few examples?

 

[Fuzz]

I have seen other posters say the same thing but I still do not understand what is meant. How is Max protected in what "he is allowed to do"? Do you have a few examples so I can understand? And how are the other QBs not protected in their offensive schemes? Do you have a few examples?

My thoughts exactly. I’ve heard talking heads say the same thing, and I think its just conjecture. I‘d be interested in stats like screen pass percentage and things like that. The Pats offensive scheme under BB has always emphasized high percentage plays.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I think Mills would've surprised us. He's currently on pace to be 5th all time for completion % for rookies in the NFL in that absolute sh*tshow down south. He certainly (theoretically) would've had the brains to grasp our complex playbook.

Man - at the moment (halftime at Texans game), Mills is on pace to be 3rd all time for completion % for rookies (66.9%). Mac (69.0%) currently in 1st, but it's no guarantee - needs 64.1% per game assuming 30 attempts for last 3 games.