Mac Jones is the Starter [Update - Mac is starting vs the Jete, says BB]

[Dingleberry]

Pretty weird. What's next:

Don't look at me.
Don't talk to me.
#Metoo

I don't know, but all his talk about head and batting balls means you might have an admirer.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Lot of obsession with head. Can't tell if he's giving or getting. Probably both.

I heard your sister is a double header? You get head and immediately head out.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

That's why I acknowledged some had played more games. Not all those QBs played 7 games.



The numbers I previously posted were for 20+, 30+, 40+ & 50+ combined. I should've used only the 20+ since they include the others. Here's the breakdown sorted by 20+ yard passes per game. It shows Mac (3.3 per game) is in the top third behind 11 other QBs, including Zappe (3.5 per game). The mean per game value is 2.8 so he's above average.

Rank	Player	G	20+ YDS	20+/G
1	Patrick Mahomes II (KC)	7	32	4.6
2	Jared Goff (DET)	6	25	4.2
3	Josh Allen (BUF)	6	25	4.2
4	Russell Wilson (DEN)	6	24	4.0
5	Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)	5	19	3.8
6	Davis Mills (HOU)	6	22	3.7
7	Bailey Zappe (NE)	4	14	3.5
8	Jalen Hurts (PHI)	6	21	3.5
9	Joe Burrow (CIN)	7	24	3.4
10	Justin Herbert (LAC)	7	24	3.4
11	Aaron Rodgers (GB)	7	23	3.3
12	Mac Jones (NE)	4	13	3.3
13	Derek Carr (LV)	6	19	3.2
14	Trevor Lawrence (JAC)	7	22	3.1
15	Matt Ryan (IND)	7	22	3.1
16	Carson Wentz (WAS)	6	18	3.0
17	Geno Smith (SEA)	7	20	2.9
18	Tom Brady (TB)	7	20	2.9
19	Ryan Tannehill (TEN)	6	17	2.8
20	Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)	6	17	2.8
21	Justin Fields (CHI)	7	19	2.7
22	Kyler Murray (ARI)	7	19	2.7
23	Marcus Mariota (ATL)	7	18	2.6
24	Jacoby Brissett (CLE)	7	18	2.6
25	Zach Wilson (NYJ)	4	10	2.5
26	Mitch Trubisky (PIT)	5	12	2.4
27	Baker Mayfield (CAR)	5	12	2.4
28	Matthew Stafford (LAR)	6	14	2.3
29	Kirk Cousins (MIN)	6	14	2.3
30	Lamar Jackson (BAL)	7	16	2.3
31	Andy Dalton (NO)	4	9	2.3
34	Cooper Rush (DAL)	6	13	2.2
35	Kenny Pickett (PIT)	4	7	1.8
36	Teddy Bridgewater (MIA)	4	5	1.3
37	Daniel Jones (NYG)	7	7	1.0

Given the reaction to the per game measure, I looked at it as number of pass attempts per deep pass, which I'm not sure can be disputed. Below is sorted by least # of pass attempts per deep throw. Surprisingly, Zappe is #1, where he throws deep every 6.6 passes. Mac is at #4 (throws deep every 7.9 passes). The mean value is 11.2, so these guys are well above the average. Zappe, Tua, & Fields throw deep balls more frequently than Mac. That's crazy.

Rank	Player	G	ATT	20+ YDS	ATT/20+
1	Bailey Zappe (NE)	4	92	14	6.6
2	Justin Fields (CHI)	7	136	19	7.2
3	Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)	5	150	19	7.9
4	Mac Jones (NE)	4	103	13	7.9
5	Patrick Mahomes II (KC)	7	263	32	8.2
6	Russell Wilson (DEN)	6	198	24	8.3
7	Marcus Mariota (ATL)	7	150	18	8.3
8	Jared Goff (DET)	6	212	25	8.5
9	Ryan Tannehill (TEN)	6	146	17	8.6
10	Jalen Hurts (PHI)	6	184	21	8.8
11	Davis Mills (HOU)	6	207	22	9.4
12	Josh Allen (BUF)	6	239	25	9.6
13	Zach Wilson (NYJ)	4	101	10	10.1
14	Aaron Rodgers (GB)	7	244	23	10.6
15	Mitch Trubisky (PIT)	5	128	12	10.7
16	Geno Smith (SEA)	7	215	20	10.8
17	Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)	6	185	17	10.9
18	Derek Carr (LV)	6	211	19	11.1
19	Trevor Lawrence (JAC)	7	246	22	11.2
20	Joe Burrow (CIN)	7	270	24	11.3
21	Cooper Rush (DAL)	6	156	13	12.0
22	Teddy Bridgewater (MIA)	4	60	5	12.0
23	Lamar Jackson (BAL)	7	197	16	12.3
24	Baker Mayfield (CAR)	5	153	12	12.8
25	Justin Herbert (LAC)	7	308	24	12.8
26	Carson Wentz (WAS)	6	232	18	12.9
27	Jacoby Brissett (CLE)	7	233	18	12.9
28	Matt Ryan (IND)	7	297	22	13.5
29	Andy Dalton (NO)	4	131	9	14.6
30	Kyler Murray (ARI)	7	281	19	14.8
31	Tom Brady (TB)	7	296	20	14.8
34	Matthew Stafford (LAR)	6	225	14	16.1
35	Kirk Cousins (MIN)	6	228	14	16.3
36	Kenny Pickett (PIT)	4	127	7	18.1
37	Daniel Jones (NYG)	7	189	7	27.0

Hot Take: Why is Patricia making Zappe throw deep so frequently? Doesn't seem fair. He should have him throwing deep every 18.1 passes like Pickett (only other rookie).

But wait. Turns out Zappe is pretty accurate with the deep ball: 64% completion, 2 TD / 0 INT.
Maybe that's what Patricia is looking for in the starting QB. Someone that can challenge & stress the defense and score easy TDs.

Source: Ian's great stats data base.

View attachment 46731

Checkmate

 

[Jim Beankie]

I can’t stand that slob, I knew things would go to **** when he was brought back, even before he was slated to be the OC. Just having him part of the franchise is a curse.

Are you talking about the slob with 3 SB rings or some other oaf?

 

[slash83]

Are you talking about the slob with 3 SB rings or some other oaf?

Slob with 3 rings Patricia.

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

If only there was a way to get the pass over the defenders arms and below the wires. That doesn’t leave us much room though

Whoa take it easy... Zappe is a rookie and Mac is in his 2nd year. We gotta ease that type of stuff in.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Dude, I am your head. Not the other way around. Don't go guessing what my "narrative" is. You see a narrative because you are obsessed with proving me wrong plain and simple. I meant what I said. And have repeatedly said that I felt the theories that the coaches are sabotaging Jones is silly.

And I have said repeatedly that they run the offense they want this team to be running when Jones is on the field and they dumb it down for Zappe. My issue is that they do not have the talent (and I that includes in the play calling ability and not just the players on the field) to run the offense they ultimately want to run and they are trying force a square peg in a round hole when they try it. And when they try it, it is when Jones is on the field.

If Jones was Joe Burrow or Josh Allen or any other QB is good at the vertical game, I would have no problem with the offense they run when Jones in the game. The problem is that Jones is not those guys. They need to be calling the game to put the talent they have in the best position and they are not doing that with Jones.

BTW, stats prove the BS narrative you have about me and what I wrote isn't stats that prove me wrong.

Now stop making an ass of yourself. You were more interesting when you were just putting laugh emojis on all my posts.

The vertical game for Mac, imho, is really just a matter of timing and familiarity with his fast receivers (although these short moon balls esp this year are a bit worrisome).

Let's look at Josh Allen's 2nd longest completed air yard throw in his NFL career - 62.8 air yds. That thing took 3.03s from release to catch. The only thing comparable for Mac right now is a pro day throw where it traveled about 62 air yds. That also took 3.03s from release to catch.

Another example: last year, Mac's farthest was 52.2 air yards (Bourne Jets), and it took 2.7s from release to catch. Allen had a comparable 52.8 air yard throw that took 2.73s, so it's not like his rocket arm is getting it there faster, usually*.

A final example was Allen's farthest throw last year: 55.1 air yds which took 2.72s. Mac Jones's miss to an open Agholor in Week 1 against the Phins this season traveled an estimated 54.3 air yds to the catch point at 2.75s.

If they were serious about the vertical game, imho, the Patriots should put darnitAgholor, Bourne, and Thornton in for plenty of snaps in practice and in the game to get the timing right to catch these guys in stride down the field. We know Bourne and Mac already have that connection. Parker is Mr. non separation jump ball, and Jakobi, my binkie, unfortunately isn't running away from anyone more than 20yds down the field, so if it's just those 2 in 12 personnel, that's not helping.

Burrow has benefited greatly from a guy he'd played with for years in college to work out timing, but air yards-wise, he's nothing special (45.6 was his longest half rookie season, 55.6yd was longest last year a jump ball into double coverage, and Mac has a longer completed air yard throw this year).

*There are a few instances like the Titans game this year where he had a Bledsoe-like low laser 54.8yd throw that took 2.45s.

 

[upstater1]

Matt Patricia also lies through his teeth.

In the SAME GAME, Mac Jones and Zappe were getting different play calls!!

A game plan is a different thing than play calls.

You can have one game plan with many different play calls.

 

[Twentytothree]

I can’t stand that slob, I knew things would go to **** when he was brought back, even before he was slated to be the OC. Just having him part of the franchise is a curse.

3 rings. Quite the curse.

 

[slash83]

3 rings. Quite the curse.

Im
Sure he was the mastermind

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Should've never gotten to this point... All BB fault... Go all in or not .. no 50/50 switching Jones for zappe... Should've sat Jones another week and ride the zappe wave and if the wave crashed then go with Jones the next week. He had a built in excuse that Jones was still healing. At least Jones is getting the majority of snaps now. If the offensive coordinators had a clue it would be different

 

[Rob0729]

A game plan is a different thing than play calls.

You can have one game plan with many different play calls.

Exactly, that is why a lot these stats are useless. They can use the exact same overall gameplan for both Jones and Zappe and completely different plays for in each QB. A game plan is strategy on how you are going to exploit the defense. The only plays that are scripted are first drives on each half. Otherwise, the OC can call from probably about 50-100 plays that they decided to fit this game plan. But the game plan doesn't say which play they are going call all game.

For example, if the game plan is to exploit a weak safety unit. Patricia probably has three or four dozen plays to exploit that weakness. So he could a completely different set of plays for each QB and still be using the same gameplan.

Notice when Patricia asked if the play calling was the same for the two QB, he talked about the game plan being opponent specific and not QB specific. He never addressed the actual play calling.

I think a lot of stats posted in this thread (including by me) are useless without context and situations. Asking a QB pass deep on second and three is different than second and ten because, if the pass fails, you are more likely to convert the first down on third where you have a wealth of plays at your disposal and three than third and ten where are more likely have to throw ten yards or more. Plus a defense may be more likely not be ready for a deep pass on 2nd and 3 than a 2nd and 10. That was my point when I talked about AT TIMES they are asking for Jones to throw for first downs on every throw.

 

[catent]

In light of the report that Jones is still dealing with numbness in his left foot, clearly he is not entirely healthy. That makes sense, given he's 5 weeks out from a high ankle sprain, which routinely take 6-8+ weeks to fully heal.

You take someone off the injury report for one of two reasons, best as I can tell:

1. They're no longer injured
2. You don't want the perception to exist that they are injured (or playing injured)

You know BB would milk Jones' injury status and the associated uncertainty if he felt that was in the team's best interest. For whatever reason(s), BB is clearly establishing the perception that Jones is not playing injured (even if he is), and BB doesn't seem to mind forgoing the gamesmanship of the injury report by pulling Jones off of it, along with clearly indicating he is getting the full "workload" this week.

Bizarre stuff, but there's almost certainly reasons for it. I have my theory.

 

[catent]

There were a few plays where Jones appeared to be shielding his ankle from contact, but often it felt subtle or difficult to fully detect.

This play, though, was the most obvious indication that he's still hurt. Watching it live I immediately said aloud (to my dad, who I was watching the game with) that he's gimpy. You can see him sort of collapse and go down in a way that seems to suggest he was in discomfort; while you can't really see his face, you can feel the grimace just from watching his body language.

 

[Pape]

Im
Sure he was the mastermind

at least he let Malcolm play...

 

[Ross12]

This toe numbness thing is a real WTF situation

 

[slash83]

This toe numbness thing is a real WTF situation

He should get a second opinion from Rex Ryan.

 

[Jim Beankie]

There were a few plays where Jones appeared to be shielding his ankle from contact, but often it felt subtle or difficult to fully detect.

This play, though, was the most obvious indication that he's still hurt. Watching it live I immediately said aloud (to my dad, who I was watching the game with) that he's gimpy. You can see him sort of collapse and go down in a way that seems to suggest he was in discomfort; while you can't really see his face, you can feel the grimace just from watching his body language.

View attachment 46736

I remember thinking that play was weird. He was clear of the rusher and normally has enough speed to perhaps make it back to the LOS, but he just... slid. Bizarre.

 

[venecol]

Now there's a narrative that Jones is being asked to throw more on 1st down. Looks like Zappe has thrown 34% of his passes on 1st down and has been the most successful at it.



Another hawt take flushed down the toilet.

 

[Dingleberry]

Now there's a narrative that Jones is being asked to throw more on 1st down. Looks like Zappe has thrown 34% of his passes on 1st down and has been the most successful at it.

View attachment 46744

Another hawt take flushed down the toilet.

B-b-but, Fat Matt, conspiracy, tipped balls, safe space, All we are saaaaaaying is give Mac a chance.