Looking Ahead: Week 1 @ Buffalo

[Ozymandias]

After digesting these three preseason games I feel as fans it's time to begin looking ahead to the season opening opponent. Although the Patriots have historically dominated the Bills in the BB-TB era, I think this game might be a lot harder than many realize, at least judging by areas of weakness in the Patriots team and those areas relate to the Bills' strengths. I view the Bills as by far the biggest threat to the Patriots in the AFCE, and like Mike Mayock said, they could surprise a lot of people this season that are sleeping on them.

So far what we know based on the Pats' preseason games, the Patriots defense has somewhat shown an inability to handle RBs in space. Reggie Bush had big plays on them in space. This is extremely problematic, especially with C.J. Spiller's explosive ability and speed being a way above that of even Bush's. The Patriots will have a lot of problems containing him (everyone does).

To add to that, receivers have been able to get behind the defense a la Desean Jackson. Marquise Goodwin is about as dangerous as it gets on deep routes in the NFL. No one in Patriots secondary can be trusted to cover him 1-on-1 downfield. McCourty's presence over the top should help in that area but the Patriots secondary as a whole has done nothing to make me feel comfortable in their ability to contain the Bills' tandem of Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods. Also, the coverage by the starting LBs (Spikes especially) hasn't changed much from last season to this season. They haven't gotten much better at defending the middle of the field. By the looks of it that is still an area of concern.

Now obviously who plays QB will be a huge factor in that. Since the Bills haven't played their third preseason game yet, or named their starting QB either, I'll add more at a later time and do some amateur scouting of their game tapes from now until the regular season starts.

Thoughts?

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I view the Bills as by far the biggest threat to the Patriots in the AFCE, and like Mike Mayock said, they could surprise a lot of people this season that are sleeping on them.

I stopped reading after this. Sorry

 

[Boston Boxer]

Thoughts?

i stopped reading after this

 

[sb1]

I too am not taking this game for granted.

Food for thought: The bills have been lousy in the last few years but in home openers since 2005 they're 5-3, scoring an average of 25.7 points per game, and their 3 losses were by an average margin of 5 points. And we all know what happened up there in 03.


So they've been pretty good in their home openers lately... and hopefully the Patriots don't take them lightly.

 

[SuperWilliamsBrothers]

The Bills almost always play well right out of the gate, and I can't remember the last time they lost their home opener in a laugher.

That being said, I think this game is going to be extremely close depending on a few factors.

First and foremost, if Kevin Kolb starts, you guys are going to have a way easier time with our offense than if EJ starts. I know all that Belichick vs rookies and all that blah blah blah, but Kolb is just SO limited in what he can do that it harms the team in every facet of the game. The team would be way better off having EJ start, but we'll see how the knee is at that point. If EJ starts that stadium will be louder than it's been in ten years.

You can say Bills fans are always excited before the season, but this year is different. There is NO pessimism at all. We got a new lease deal, we got new coaches who everyone is falling in love with, and we've got a quarterback who thus far looks as though he can play the part better than anyone since Bledsoe. Literally EVERYBODY is excited about the future. I've never seen it like this before. If EJ starts, it will be a huge boost to the Bills.

The second thing is our d-line. With Pettine there will be a lot more blitzes. Wanny didn't call any blitzes at all last year and Tom Terrific ate us alive. I know it's only preseason but the Pats O-line got BULLIED against the Lions. I think the Bills d-line is as good if not better than Detroit's, and if the Bills can rattle Tom early, they'll be in good shape for the rest of the game.

The third and final most important thing for the Bills in this game is the linebackers. We have three starting linebackers who weren't starting week one last year, and they need to stop the run. You guys saw firsthand how bad our run defense was last year. Every time Ridley touched the ball he was going for fifteen yards. If our new linebacker corps is able to hold against the run, it will force you guys into more passing situations where Pettine can really pin the defense's ears back and attack the passer. If this is the case, good things will happen.


Overall, I'm stuck on a prediction, as I think it could go either way. Historically the Bills play well out of the gate, and always play the Patriots way harder in the first meeting between the two teams than they do in the second, (except last year of course). This, combined with a raucous, crazy atmosphere has me giving the Bills a 34-28 win if EJ starts.

If Kolb starts, you guys probably win like 35-17, but the game is closer than the final score

Just my thoughts

 

[JMC00]

No-one circles the wagons like Bills fans

 

[Archeryaddict12]

1 day at a time fellas. The main focus needs to be the receivers knowing their assignments. Or we are really gonna be using amendola and missing gronk.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I think it would be embarrassing for Bill to be outcoached and beaten by a rookie HC in week one and especially if Manuel starts at QB,Belichick's record is pretty good in this regards.

The Bills are nowhere near the top threat in the division,that clearly belongs to Miami who is a Tannehill good season away from seriously challenging and winning the east.

That being said,the Patriots have played Buffalo several times in week one in previous years and both times were on the ropes and looked defeated but pulled the win out.....I expect the same this time around.

 

[manxman2601]

Two things of note which I've seen recently.


1. Gilmore has been almost unbeatable in TC by all accounts. "Can count the number of catches he's conceded on no more than two hands" was the report I saw

2. I think it was according to PFF but Cordy Glenn hasn't given up a pressure in pre-season.


I remember Scott Chandler getting a lot of success last year against us. Is Adrian Wilson good enough to stop that? Jamie Collins?

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The Bills almost always play well right out of the gate, and I can't remember the last time they lost their home opener in a laugher.

That being said, I think this game is going to be extremely close depending on a few factors.

First and foremost, if Kevin Kolb starts, you guys are going to have a way easier time with our offense than if EJ starts. I know all that Belichick vs rookies and all that blah blah blah, but Kolb is just SO limited in what he can do that it harms the team in every facet of the game. The team would be way better off having EJ start, but we'll see how the knee is at that point. If EJ starts that stadium will be louder than it's been in ten years.

You can say Bills fans are always excited before the season, but this year is different. There is NO pessimism at all. We got a new lease deal, we got new coaches who everyone is falling in love with, and we've got a quarterback who thus far looks as though he can play the part better than anyone since Bledsoe. Literally EVERYBODY is excited about the future. I've never seen it like this before. If EJ starts, it will be a huge boost to the Bills.

The second thing is our d-line. With Pettine there will be a lot more blitzes. Wanny didn't call any blitzes at all last year and Tom Terrific ate us alive. I know it's only preseason but the Pats O-line got BULLIED against the Lions. I think the Bills d-line is as good if not better than Detroit's, and if the Bills can rattle Tom early, they'll be in good shape for the rest of the game.

The third and final most important thing for the Bills in this game is the linebackers. We have three starting linebackers who weren't starting week one last year, and they need to stop the run. You guys saw firsthand how bad our run defense was last year. Every time Ridley touched the ball he was going for fifteen yards. If our new linebacker corps is able to hold against the run, it will force you guys into more passing situations where Pettine can really pin the defense's ears back and attack the passer. If this is the case, good things will happen.


Overall, I'm stuck on a prediction, as I think it could go either way. Historically the Bills play well out of the gate, and always play the Patriots way harder in the first meeting between the two teams than they do in the second, (except last year of course). This, combined with a raucous, crazy atmosphere has me giving the Bills a 34-28 win if EJ starts.

If Kolb starts, you guys probably win like 35-17, but the game is closer than the final score

Just my thoughts

Kolb played a great game last year for the Cards huge upset at New England,don't discount that...he has beaten them before.

 

[SuperWilliamsBrothers]

Kolb played a great game last year for the Cards huge upset at New England,don't discount that...he has beaten them before.

Meh, he only threw for 140 yards. The Cardinals won that game because of their defense and because of a phantom holding call on Gronkowski by a replacement ref

 

[Ozymandias]

The Bills almost always play well right out of the gate, and I can't remember the last time they lost their home opener in a laugher.

That being said, I think this game is going to be extremely close depending on a few factors.

First and foremost, if Kevin Kolb starts, you guys are going to have a way easier time with our offense than if EJ starts. I know all that Belichick vs rookies and all that blah blah blah, but Kolb is just SO limited in what he can do that it harms the team in every facet of the game. The team would be way better off having EJ start, but we'll see how the knee is at that point. If EJ starts that stadium will be louder than it's been in ten years.

You can say Bills fans are always excited before the season, but this year is different. There is NO pessimism at all. We got a new lease deal, we got new coaches who everyone is falling in love with, and we've got a quarterback who thus far looks as though he can play the part better than anyone since Bledsoe. Literally EVERYBODY is excited about the future. I've never seen it like this before. If EJ starts, it will be a huge boost to the Bills.

The second thing is our d-line. With Pettine there will be a lot more blitzes. Wanny didn't call any blitzes at all last year and Tom Terrific ate us alive. I know it's only preseason but the Pats O-line got BULLIED against the Lions. I think the Bills d-line is as good if not better than Detroit's, and if the Bills can rattle Tom early, they'll be in good shape for the rest of the game.

The third and final most important thing for the Bills in this game is the linebackers. We have three starting linebackers who weren't starting week one last year, and they need to stop the run. You guys saw firsthand how bad our run defense was last year. Every time Ridley touched the ball he was going for fifteen yards. If our new linebacker corps is able to hold against the run, it will force you guys into more passing situations where Pettine can really pin the defense's ears back and attack the passer. If this is the case, good things will happen.


Overall, I'm stuck on a prediction, as I think it could go either way. Historically the Bills play well out of the gate, and always play the Patriots way harder in the first meeting between the two teams than they do in the second, (except last year of course). This, combined with a raucous, crazy atmosphere has me giving the Bills a 34-28 win if EJ starts.

If Kolb starts, you guys probably win like 35-17, but the game is closer than the final score

Just my thoughts

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this, mate. I enjoy getting information on another team from their fans' perspective. To be honest, a lot of Patriots fans I have talked seem to think the Bills are of no challenge to the Patriots partially because of revisionist history and the inexperience at HC and QB.

From what I've seen from the Bills so far a lot of their personnel seems geared towards to beating the Patriots or at least from the blueprint on how to do so. Their front 7 is exceptionally formidable on paper. I worry whether the Patriots O-Line can handle all that because the Lions front 7 gave them fits last night and it isn't as good as Buffalo's. The prerequisite is whether you can get pressure up the middle to clog Brady's passing lanes and areas he likes to step up into to, the Bills have the ability to do that.

I don't mention Byrd here because although he's an elite player he not be in that great of game shape with so much time missed and in a new scheme that hasn't been apart of it's installation. Though, he's one of the very best safeties in the NFL so I doubt it would be wise to bet against him.

Then in the back-end the Bills have no weaknesses except LCB with McKelvin. Gilmore is on the cusp of superstardom and with his Revis-esque man coverage skills there isn't anyone in the Patriots stable of wide-outs that can really challenge him on the outside in isolation.

I agree with you 100%. I'd rather they go up against Kolb because despite being a rookie Manuel still possesses a lot of the dual-threat skills at QB to give a defense like the Patriots fits in trying to contain him and all of the other explosive playmakers the Bills have. It could be similar to what Kaepernick as able to do last season against them.

I think the Bills main weakness is their run defense until shown otherwise. The Patriots will need to control the tempo of the game with their rushing attack to stay balance and have proper ball control otherwise they will be made one dimensional and fall right into the Bills pass rush which is problematic.

Two things of note which I've seen recently.


1. Gilmore has been almost unbeatable in TC by all accounts. "Can count the number of catches he's conceded on no more than two hands" was the report I saw

2. I think it was according to PFF but Cordy Glenn hasn't given up a pressure in pre-season.


I remember Scott Chandler getting a lot of success last year against us. Is Adrian Wilson good enough to stop that? Jamie Collins?

1. Gilmore will be a huge issue going forward. The Patriots are just going to have to deal with playing 10-on-10 like when they used to have to play the Jets. It's just that simple.

2. All reports are that Glenn has been really solid and he gave Chandler Jones some trouble last season. I expect that to continue this go around.

3. Chandler's recovery from his torn ACL has been pretty remarkable. Maybe it saps a little bit of his athleticism but I still expect the Patriots to have trouble covering over the middle from everything I've seen so far. Wilson is definitely not the answer from his showings this preseason. Collins has a long way to go.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

the pats pass rush will absolutely dominate that Oline.

I have a $50 bet with a bills fan on another forum...strait up he has bills...i have pats

 

[AzPatsFan]

I think some changes could hasten to happen as a result of the Lions game and our Offensive woes.

BB might bring back Gronk sooner even if he plays minimumly just to have another NFL veteran at receiver.. Gronk and Amedola are stars, plus Edelman could limit the exposure to the rookies to merely one or two. I am not impressed with Boyce, at all. This would also force a TE cut or a trade.

Plus he might push Cannon to return and battle for the RG position.

The loss of Grissom may force BB to deal for a DT if the cut lists prove un-attractive.





.

 

[SVN]

I think their offensive speed will be a challenge for us and their D is going to be Rex Ryan/Baltimore style defense with lot of different packages and looks with Mike Pettine now there. Whether they can pull the scheme off remains to be seen . Its opening day and a home game for them and could be as tough a game for the pats.

 

[Ozymandias]

I think their offensive speed will be a challenge for us

Agreed. I grow weary of this by the day. If Reggie Bush was able to make them pay for atrocious tackling and poor contain just imagine what C.J. Spiller would do to them.

their D is going to be Rex Ryan/Baltimore style defense with lot of different packages and looks with Mike Pettine now there. Whether they can pull the scheme off remains to be seen .

Their defense on paper looks greatly improved from last season. It has all the necessary ingredients to give the Patriots serious issues like those styles/schemes you mentioned above.

Its opening day and a home game for them and could be as tough a game for the pats.

Bills fans will no doubt be extremely fired up for this one. It will be a very hostile environment and a playoff-like atmosphere. I'm not saying the Patriots can't win this one (I expect them too), but it'll certainly be tougher than most people around here are letting on.

 

[flasox27]

I seem to remember how last year the Bills had the formula to beat the Pats with their super defensive line and the results. The only thing that happened is that both the coach and QB were fired. Now with a former college coach and rookie QB, they are somehow improved. I don't think Marv Levy and Jim Kelly have walked through the door. I will believe in the New Bills when they actually beat the Pats. Maybe the Bills' homers populating this thread can tell the last time that happened.

 

[fgssand]

The Bills almost always play well right out of the gate, and I can't remember the last time they lost their home opener in a laugher.

That being said, I think this game is going to be extremely close depending on a few factors.

First and foremost, if Kevin Kolb starts, you guys are going to have a way easier time with our offense than if EJ starts. I know all that Belichick vs rookies and all that blah blah blah, but Kolb is just SO limited in what he can do that it harms the team in every facet of the game. The team would be way better off having EJ start, but we'll see how the knee is at that point. If EJ starts that stadium will be louder than it's been in ten years.

You can say Bills fans are always excited before the season, but this year is different. There is NO pessimism at all. We got a new lease deal, we got new coaches who everyone is falling in love with, and we've got a quarterback who thus far looks as though he can play the part better than anyone since Bledsoe. Literally EVERYBODY is excited about the future. I've never seen it like this before. If EJ starts, it will be a huge boost to the Bills.

The second thing is our d-line. With Pettine there will be a lot more blitzes. Wanny didn't call any blitzes at all last year and Tom Terrific ate us alive. I know it's only preseason but the Pats O-line got BULLIED against the Lions. I think the Bills d-line is as good if not better than Detroit's, and if the Bills can rattle Tom early, they'll be in good shape for the rest of the game.

The third and final most important thing for the Bills in this game is the linebackers. We have three starting linebackers who weren't starting week one last year, and they need to stop the run. You guys saw firsthand how bad our run defense was last year. Every time Ridley touched the ball he was going for fifteen yards. If our new linebacker corps is able to hold against the run, it will force you guys into more passing situations where Pettine can really pin the defense's ears back and attack the passer. If this is the case, good things will happen.


Overall, I'm stuck on a prediction, as I think it could go either way. Historically the Bills play well out of the gate, and always play the Patriots way harder in the first meeting between the two teams than they do in the second, (except last year of course). This, combined with a raucous, crazy atmosphere has me giving the Bills a 34-28 win if EJ starts.

If Kolb starts, you guys probably win like 35-17, but the game is closer than the final score

Just my thoughts

So, you like your chances when you force us to pass??

I'll put my money on Tom Brady and day of the week dude.

Sorry buffalo, while I do happen to like where your team is headed, 38-17 sounds about right and I don't care who is your QB.

 

[sb1]

I seem to remember how last year the Bills had the formula to beat the Pats with their super defensive line and the results. The only thing that happened is that both the coach and QB were fired. Now with a former college coach and rookie QB, they are somehow improved. I don't think Marv Levy and Jim Kelly have walked through the door. I will believe in the New Bills when they actually beat the Pats. Maybe the Bills' homers populating this thread can tell the last time that happened.

Not a Bills homer but...

http://www.patriots.com/news/articl...riots-31/b6f34377-e6d8-4ef3-a906-3a401cd8bbdf

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

If Brady tosses 4 picks vs Buff like he did in 2011 prepare for the onslaught of commentators saying he's done. Not that I think the picks will happen but the mediots are waiting to proclaim Brady and the Pats as ovah!