I know its become fashionable to dump on Lombardi, but I'm surprised no one has commented on the 2 incredibly insightful points he made that I haven't heard from anyone else all week.
1. That, while the Niners want to let you have the "illusion" of a balanced offense. Their goal is to run the ball, and Kaepernick allows them to do that so much better.
2. Their OL ranks 28th in holding calls, and 28th in sacks allowed. That's not a coincidence. As good as they are in the run game,. that's how bad an OL they are in the pass game. Quite simply they have trouble when they drop back and pass. And if they have to do it more than 30 tiimes, on Sunday, they will be in trouble.
Look at the 4 games Kaepernick has started. In the 3 wins he never had to throw the ball more than 25 times. The only times he's thrown the ball over 30 times (and it was only 32) was in the one loss he had.....and even then he only had 206 yds. In fact he's never had more than 250 yds in any start. Hell, that used to be a good half for a lot of QB's going against the Pats secondary in "the bad old days" .
No Kaepernick is in there because he adds another running dimension to an already great running attack. He got the job because the OL can't pass block and he's capable of ripping off 50+ yd runs on a regular basis Plus it doesn't hurt that he seems to be fairly accurate in the short game, and takes good care of the ball (so far)
To me that's great coaching by Harbaugh to recognize the strengths and limitations of his team. It makes his switching QB's make much more sense. Kaepernick looks like he always was the QB of the future for the Niners, and eventually they could fix the flaws in the offense and he could develop into a great one. But for tomorrow night....I'm betting BB will have a great plan for him. Whether the players can execute it is another story. It would be a horrible indictment of the Pats secondary if Kaepernick rips off a 300+ yd passing game. It would be a big step back
In any event those are 2 great insights by Lombari, which I haven't heard anywhere else. As much as I hate to give D&C a click, it was worth the listen
Also, because he has one of the strongest arms in the league. If Brady, Romo, or Brees is down by 17 points at the start of the 4th quarter, they are still a major threat because they can burn you on one completed pass. Smith, not so much,
Kaepernick might not have the fineness of Brady or Brees, but I suspect he can throw the ball even harder than they can, and if it comes to a desperate situation where the 49ers get seriously behind (like against the Giants), Kaepernick at least has a realistic potential of throwing it 50 yards down the field to a receiver like Moss, or burning through the remaining defensive line and running for a first down and a stopped clock if they are not.
Sure, Alex Smith could do that too. He was fast on his feet and he has made a few long passes when it mattered, and he is probably still the better quarterback right now, but you don't see the potential to come from behind with him that you do with Kaepernick, due to Kaepernick's lightning-fast foot speed and He-man strong arm.
But yeah, the 49ers plan is to run the ball as much as possible, but both Smith and Kapernick have an excellent passer rating (Smith is tied for first with RGIII and Brady for 2012), and with Crabtree, Moss, Manningham, great RBs, and even tackles that receive the pass occasionally, it is not like it was back in the bad old days of Singleterry, or even last year during the NFC championships where Crabtree could not get open at all.
Also, with the Patriots pass defense being one of the worst in the league this year, I think that Harbaugh is at least going to try to burn the Patriots defense on the pass, like he did to NY in the regular season in 2011. Kaepernick certainly has the arm to put up some 30 yard+ pass and hope that Moss is talented enough to get under it, especially when the 49ers many RBs can regularly pick up 4-6 yards on a first down rush.
It should be an interesting game, especially since the weather calls for it to be cold, rainy, and generally miserable, a great defensive powerhouse against a great offensive powerhouse in the mud. Almost a repeat of the NFC championship game last year.
