Linebackers 2012

[mgteich]

Of course this is true.

FACT 1: We've needed upgrades at OLB for several years.

FACT 2: LB's that bb has brought in have struggled as have those brought in from other teams. Yes, it is possible that the quality of the acquisitions is simply not good enough to integrate into our defense. As was pointed out, in 2011 bb chose to change the defense in order to allow our acquisitions to be productive.

FACT 3: Belichick hasn't drafted any "starting" quality OLB's.
=================

CONCLUSIONS

OPTION 1
Belichick has made numerous errors in player acquisition. The 3-4 starting quality OLB's were there. Belichick and the entire staff have simply failed to draft any, year after year and year.

OPTION 2
Perhaps, just perhaps, it is very difficult for a college DE or OLB to fit right in to the patriot defensive system. Just perhaps, the defense is indeed developing in a reasonable manner.
====================

SOLUTIONS

1) Change the defense.

2) Draft OLB's rated as starting quality by others (generally ignoring patriot evaluations). After all, this will please the fans. As you say, we can't know for sure until we try. We also can't know for sure that we cannot fly until we jump off a cliff. That is not a reason to do so.

3a) Accept that OLB's are difficult to develop from rookies or free agents, a live with that fact.

3b) Knowing that, "overpay" for prospects who project to be patriot starters in a year or two. After all, one way to get elite players is to draft them and train them, even if it takes awhile. Of course, the fans would whine about a 1st rounder being inactive, but so what.

A FINAL NOTE
We seem to have similar situations at OLB and WR.

I don't think the situation is similar at all. At WR, we have a reasonable strategy. Draft a youngster each year, bring in an UDFA or two, and count on adding veteran free agents. This seems to work well enough. Brady has enough talent to consistently give us one of the top 5 passing games with this approach.

At OLB, we seem to have had problems maintaining OLB production since we last won a Super Bowl. Belichick has made up for this deficiency as best he could, but the reality is that OLB has gone from a consistent strength to a consistent weakness. But still, Belichick wins, understanding the parameters of his defense.

The plain fact is that the BB Patriots have yet to draft a single quality starting OLB. Given that, how can we guess at how long it would take such a player to contribute?

 

[SeymourTrophies]

...Posters here have believed that answer is to draft their favorite 3-4 pass-rusher. This has been our answer for several years. Surely our favorite must be better than what Belichick has chosen...

BB is the greatest for a reason. However, Connor Barwin. My god was I tired of that name being beaten to death on this forum in the buildup to the draft. We have not drafted one guy like this who is just an athlete pure and simple. We've drafted Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable, and Cunninghim (who isn't dead yet although he is on life support). BB can be (and is) smarter than everyone in the room, but at some point, you need athletes. There is no such thing as success that is entirely scheme-based.

I think BB may have been converted last season on the defensive side. Having guys (Anderson and Carter) who do one thing well can change games. We've already got the guys who do lots of things pretty well.

 

[patchick]

We've drafted Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable, and Cunninghim

Actually, Woods was a UDFA. I'm pretty sure that Crable & Cunningham are the only two OLB/DEs they've drafted above round 5. Utterly baffling.

 

[Marqui]

BB can be (and is) smarter than everyone in the room, but at some point, you need athletes. There is no such thing as success that is entirely scheme-based.

Which makes you wonder why Belichick never spends high draft picks on OLBs.

 

[Sicilian]

That begs the question why not? Is it that BB doesn't value the position as much as us fans do, or is it that he himself thinks it's difficult for a rookie (or someone inexperienced in the system) to learn the position. Don't forget, he bought in Andre Carter and Mark Anderson and then switched defenses rather than try to force their round pegs into his favoured square hole. I hope one day we get to find out why BB and pass rushers don't mix.

I think that was more due to the shortened training camp. BB didn't want to have to teach a young defense two different fronts, so rather than going 3-4 base with 4 down subs, he just went 4 down all the time. I'm sure the shortened camp also made him hesitate to draft any conversions that project to NFL OLB.

 

[manxman2601]

I think that was more due to the shortened training camp. BB didn't want to have to teach a young defense two different fronts, so rather than going 3-4 base with 4 down subs, he just went 4 down all the time. I'm sure the shortened camp also made him hesitate to draft any conversions that project to NFL OLB.

I've never quite understood that explanation because aside from Markell carter, all the front 7 players post draft day had been in the system for at least a year. Surely they'd already been taught the 3-4 base.

 

[IllegalContact]

I just want to focus on this comment. If we are a 34 team, the OLBs become the DEs in the sub package. So in a nickel we 4 "LBs" and in the dime we need 3.

yes and no......the sub package you speak of typically had seymour and jarvis green on the inside and 2 OLB's as what would appear to be 4-3 DE's......except that quite often only 1 'DE' would rush and the other would eitehr engage the TE or the RB. kind of like DE's, but still OLB's. they even schemed only 1 down lineman (usually seymour) and everyone else stood around.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, it is indeed baffling. We've analyzed this for years, and do not seem to understand the methods of Belichick.

Sometimes, I think it a very simple situatin. I will consider the value of players to coaches that have base 3-4 defenses. There are certainly enough to make this analysis relevant.
====================
ONE ANALYSIS ABOUT DRAFTING OLB'S

Say that there are several studs that most GM's expect to contribute early in their systems as 3-4 OLB's (including DE conversions). They are expected to be rookie or sophomore starters. These GM's value these players as first to mid second rounders. The media generally agrees and we see these evaluations in the many boards, although there are certainly differences.

Obviously, there would be some variation in the rankings by these GM's by a few spots. Perhaps some might even lower the value of conversions by 16 picks.

And then comes Belichick. For him (and the patriot system), almost all college players will likely take a couple of years to develop. Belichick might value these players a full round or two lower than the rest of the 3-4 GM's. We end up getting very few of these players. Crable and Cunningham were rare exceptions.

It is possible that there are super-studs, top 10 value elite players who are so good that they could be expected to be an immediate top contributor, even in Belichick's schemes.
There many be 1-3 of these players a year. But even here, such a player is likely to be more highly valued by other teams than by Belichick.

CONCLUSION
Unless Belichick changes his evaluation method and his unwillingness to "reach" for players who might not contribute immediately, I see no changes coming soon.

Sometimes, Belichick might take a shot in the 2nd. It seemed reasonable to take the choice between Dunlop and Cunningham, which might still work out if we really return to playing more 3-4. But it seems, that OLB is just NOT a position that Belichick will be filling high in the draft. It seems that OLB's will come from lower picks, the occasion Day 2 pick, and from free agency. BTW, if we were to sign Carter and Lawson, I'm not sure we'd be whining quite as much.

Obviously, we's like Belichick to take more chances at this position, perhaps at least once a draft until the situation is solved.

OPEN QUESTION
Is Belichick's personnel strategy really so bad? Belichick has judged that certain positions are USUALLY not to be filled through high draft choices. Some of those positions include OLB, WR, C , OG, P and K. There are exceptions. We might have drafted Dez or even Lawson. We did draft Mankins (called a surprise and a reach as I recall).

Obviously, the problem for us is that Belichick has not succeeding in developing a quality OLB corps using any method.

Actually, Woods was a UDFA. I'm pretty sure that Crable & Cunningham are the only two OLB/DEs they've drafted above round 5. Utterly baffling.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Which makes you wonder why Belichick never spends high draft picks on OLBs.

Even more baffling when he coached a great defense built around LT(The real one) and Carl Banks. He has McGinest and brings Vrabel in and we win 3 Super Bowls. Surely, he values that position. Cunningham and Crable weren't considered very good 3-4 prospects and specualtion right away came out that we reached for Cunningham and Crable didn't have enough sand in the pants to anchor that spot. He ran a 4-3 in Cleveland with Rob Burnett and Anthony Pleasant as his de's for 5 straight seasons.

 

[Snake Eyes]

You do not weaken a position of strength (ILB) to strengthen a position of need (OLB)...

Why not? A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link.

 

[supafly]

Yes, it is indeed baffling. We've analyzed this for years, and do not seem to understand the methods of Belichick.

Sometimes, I think it a very simple situatin. I will consider the value of players to coaches that have base 3-4 defenses. There are certainly enough to make this analysis relevant.
====================
ONE ANALYSIS ABOUT DRAFTING OLB'S

Say that there are several studs that most GM's expect to contribute early in their systems as 3-4 OLB's (including DE conversions). They are expected to be rookie or sophomore starters. These GM's value these players as first to mid second rounders. The media generally agrees and we see these evaluations in the many boards, although there are certainly differences.

Obviously, there would be some variation in the rankings by these GM's by a few spots. Perhaps some might even lower the value of conversions by 16 picks.

And then comes Belichick. For him (and the patriot system), almost all college players will likely take a couple of years to develop. Belichick might value these players a full round or two lower than the rest of the 3-4 GM's. We end up getting very few of these players. Crable and Cunningham were rare exceptions.

It is possible that there are super-studs, top 10 value elite players who are so good that they could be expected to be an immediate top contributor, even in Belichick's schemes.
There many be 1-3 of these players a year. But even here, such a player is likely to be more highly valued by other teams than by Belichick.

CONCLUSION
Unless Belichick changes his evaluation method and his unwillingness to "reach" for players who might not contribute immediately, I see no changes coming soon.

Sometimes, Belichick might take a shot in the 2nd. It seemed reasonable to take the choice between Dunlop and Cunningham, which might still work out if we really return to playing more 3-4. But it seems, that OLB is just NOT a position that Belichick will be filling high in the draft. It seems that OLB's will come from lower picks, the occasion Day 2 pick, and from free agency. BTW, if we were to sign Carter and Lawson, I'm not sure we'd be whining quite as much.

Obviously, we's like Belichick to take more chances at this position, perhaps at least once a draft until the situation is solved.

OPEN QUESTION
Is Belichick's personnel strategy really so bad? Belichick has judged that certain positions are USUALLY not to be filled through high draft choices. Some of those positions include OLB, WR, C , OG, P and K. There are exceptions. We might have drafted Dez or even Lawson. We did draft Mankins (called a surprise and a reach as I recall).

Obviously, the problem for us is that Belichick has not succeeding in developing a quality OLB corps using any method.

mgteich--I value your analysis with many issues, and you have said a lot of insightful stuff in regards to this particular one.

I have a question (open question to whomever)--does this issue get brought up in the latest Holley book, "War Room?" It would seem to be one of the 'perfect' topics to dissect.

I started reading it a couple of weeks ago during a long flight, but have not been able to get even 1/2 way through yet.

 

[ATippett56]

Unless Belichick changes his evaluation method and his unwillingness to "reach" for players who might not contribute immediately, I see no changes coming soon.

Bill Belichick will need to improve the outside pass rush via the 2012 NFL Draft because I did not believe that Trevor Scott or Jermaine Cunningham is the answer.

Sometimes, Belichick might take a shot in the 2nd. It seemed reasonable to take the choice between Dunlop and Cunningham, which might still work out if we really return to playing more 3-4. But it seems, that OLB is just NOT a position that Belichick will be filling high in the draft. It seems that OLB's will come from lower picks, the occasion Day 2 pick, and from free agency. BTW, if we were to sign Carter and Lawson, I'm not sure we'd be whining quite as much.

Obviously, we's like Belichick to take more chances at this position, perhaps at least once a draft until the situation is solved.

The sweet spot in the 2012 NFL Draft just maybe the first ten picks in the second round. It depends whether there will be a run on collegiate defensive ends in the second half of the first round.

Is Belichick's personnel strategy really so bad? Belichick has judged that certain positions are USUALLY not to be filled through high draft choices. Some of those positions include OLB, WR, C , OG, P and K. There are exceptions. We might have drafted Dez or even Lawson. We did draft Mankins (called a surprise and a reach as I recall).

Obviously, the problem for us is that Belichick has not succeeding in developing a quality OLB corps using any method.

Obviously unrestricted free agency was not the answer in March 2012. The only conclusion at this point in time would be to upgrade at least one of the 3-4 defensive end positions and at least one of the 3-4 outside linebacker positions via the 2012 NFL Draft.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

mgteich--I value your analysis with many issues, and you have said a lot of insightful stuff in regards to this particular one.

I have a question (open question to whomever)--does this issue get brought up in the latest Holley book, "War Room?" It would seem to be one of the 'perfect' topics to dissect.

I started reading it a couple of weeks ago during a long flight, but have not been able to get even 1/2 way through yet.

I don't recall seeing anything about that. Good book though. Still baffled by the CJ section, and how he was drafted. I guess BB isnt a God afterall.

 

[ay-yo]

CONCLUSIONS

OPTION 1
Belichick has made numerous errors in player acquisition. The 3-4 starting quality OLB's were there. Belichick and the entire staff have simply failed to draft any, year after year and year.

OPTION 2
Perhaps, just perhaps, it is very difficult for a college DE or OLB to fit right in to the patriot defensive system. Just perhaps, the defense is indeed developing in a reasonable manner.

How about option 3, all of the above. I don't doubt it's one of the harder positions to play but there have been mistakes. Cunningham over Dunlap is the best example.

Personally I'm hoping for Courtney Upshaw in the draft. Having played for 3-4 OLB for Saban his adjustment to the Patriots D should be less than other prospects. He looked like a complete beast during the season and is slipping a tad b/c a few guys had better combines than him.

 

[ay-yo]

When looking at the LB's we ned to remember that we are in sub packages > 50% of the time where we only hve 3 and sometimes 2 Lb's on the field. IOW we don't need 4 3 down players.

Disagree. LB's more than any other position allow you to disguise what D you are playing since they can either rush or cover. If we had the ideal players our nickle would have 4 LB's on the field w/ 2 DL and 5 secondary players. 2 of the LB's would be OLB who primarily rush. Problem is with our roster we can't run the sub package properly.

DL: pick your fav 2
OLB (rushers): Nink, Scott
ILB: Mayo, ????
DB: pick 5

I do not have faith in Fletcher or Spikes in pass coverage. This was supposed to be Guyton's role but he never progressed as a player. Hopefully we can upgrade this spot.

Let's look at the guys who figure to be on the roster:

Mayo
Ninkovich
Spikes
Fletcher
White

So for the other 3 slots we are looking at (currently)

Cunningham
Tarpinian
Carter
Koutouvides
Rivera
Scott (he is listed as a DL on Patriots.com)

Here's how I see it:

ILB: Mayo, Fletcher, Spikes
OLB: Nink, Scott
ST who can play LB in a pinch: White
Others: Camp fodder

Needs:
An ILB who can cover and flourish in Guyton's role. (Zack Brown would be nice). I think this is very understated on the board.

OLB depth. And since Scott is a gamble with his health that depth better be of reasonable quality.

Regarding your plan to move Mayo outside:
This move really depends on one's opinion of Fletcher and Scott. Personally I don't see Fletcher - ILB / Mayo - OLB as a big improvement, if any, over Mayo - ILB / Scott - OLB. As such I'd rather draft an OLB and keep Mayo doing what we know he's good at.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with you comments of our need of 1-2 DE's and 1-2 OLB's. If 30-45 is the sweet spot of the draft for DE's and OLB's, then we are well placed having picks at 27, 31 and 48. Belichick should be able to trade forward into 2013 and still stay within the sweet zone. The open question is whether Belichick will use 27 for a DE or OLB. In any case, this situation is somewhat a poster's illusion/hope. I will be fine if Belichick drafts just one DE. 3 just hasn't been Belichick's style. After all, consider the 2011 draft, a great draft for pass-rushers in the 17-48 range (mid-fiest to mid-second.

Also, I expect us to be able to draft a safety at 62, perhaps needing a bit of a trade up.

Bill Belichick will need to improve the outside pass rush via the 2012 NFL Draft because I did not believe that Trevor Scott or Jermaine Cunningham is the answer.

The sweet spot in the 2012 NFL Draft just maybe the first ten picks in the second round. It depends whether there will be a run on collegiate defensive ends in the second half of the first round.

Obviously unrestricted free agency was not the answer in March 2012. The only conclusion at this point in time would be to upgrade at least one of the 3-4 defensive end positions and at least one of the 3-4 outside linebacker positions via the 2012 NFL Draft.

 

[olschool]

We really need Cunningham to pull it all together this year. Having a healthy Fletcher back helps. I'd really like BB to draft a stud OLB. As usual, he is not responding to my emails about WHO that should be

BB doesn't do e-book, tweety, or faceshield.