miloofcroton
Third String But Playing on Special Teams
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- Apr 19, 2017
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I just did defense, so it would be apt to do offense too. I found this exercise much harder, as there are more options for an offense to pick from (formation, play type, play subtype, etc). I looked at:
Categorizing was much harder. I found there to be 4 teams that really ran unique offenses compared to everyone else, so they occupied their own play style category. Here were the categories I came up with:
light, high shotgun, high shotgun run
Thoughts/Notes:
How balance is struck:
In summary, the following appear to be the discrete strategic choices that teams have:
Trends and results:
Conclusions:
Data:
My spreadsheet again: (link). I apologize that my spreadsheet is so ugly. Also, I did change a few things as I wrote this, so the categories in the first section may be in a different order or slightly modified in my actual spreadsheet.
This time, I needed NFL Savant and Sharp Football Stats for sources.
- personnel grouping frequency
- shotgun/undercenter rate
- pass/run rate
- shotgun pass/run rate
- undercenter pass/run rate
- short/long pass
Categorizing was much harder. I found there to be 4 teams that really ran unique offenses compared to everyone else, so they occupied their own play style category. Here were the categories I came up with:
light, high shotgun, high shotgun run
- Texans, Eagles
- Panthers, Chiefs
- Patriots
- 49ers
- Falcons, Saints, Chargers
- Ravens, Bears, Colts
- Bills, Titans, Vikings, Jaguars
- Cardinals, Buccaneers
- Packers, Dolphins, Raiders, Browns
- Bengals, Jets, Rams, Broncos
- Redskins, Cowboys
- Steelers, Giants, Lions
- Seahawks
Thoughts/Notes:
- There are metagroups (or just less-strict groups) you can form too. The Texans, Eagles, Panthers, and Chiefs have many similarities, except you can divide them into two groups, one that goes light personnel more and one that goes heavy personnel more.
- The 49ers and Patriots are the two highest users of 2RB, but the 49ers use it to pass the most, whereas the Patriots use it to run much more. In other words, the Pats are smashmouth with 2RB, and the 49ers are West Coast with 2RB. These differences extend to how their passing games develop. The 49ers run more and throw short more, whereas the Pats run less and throw deep more.
- The Falcons, Saints, and Chargers are semi-smashmouth teams that use their 2nd TE some and their FB some, and they run a decent amount. They are smashmouth-ish, but they pass more than the trueblooded smashmouth teams. They differentiate themselves from the Patriots by using the FB less and throwing short more.
- There are 6 pure-ish smashmouth teams: Bears, Ravens, Bills, Titans, Vikings, and Jaguars. They all use 2TEs fairly heavily, although the Ravens are a cut above. The Ravens and Bears use the short pass to offset their rushing attack, and the Bills, Titans, Vikings, and Jaguars use deep passes and play action.
- There are three teams you might call "light smashmouth" teams: Cowboys, Redskins, Colts. They use 3WR a lot, but they also manage to mix in moderate to high 2TE sets, and they all run it moderately high. They all prefer a short passing game too, like the Ravens/Bears.
- Now we have a series of teams like the 'light smashmouth' teams, except they use the shotgun more and run less. These are the Bengals, Jets, Rams, and Broncos
- The Cardinals and Buccaneers were oddities. They preferred light personnel but under center formations. Neither ran the ball much, and both preferred a moderate-high percentage of deep balls.
- The Seahawks were a deviation from the previous category. They used undercenter formations a decent amount and passed out of them a decent amount. This would be similar to the Cardinals and Buccaneers. However, they also used the shotgun more and 2TE less.
- The rest of the teams used high shotgun and ran little. This is arguably the most predictable combination. The Packers, Dolphins, Raiders, and Browns were very simple: high shotgun, low run, low heavy personnel. The Steelers, Giants, and Lions at least used the shotgun a bit more or 2TE a bit more.
How balance is struck:
- The shotgun-running teams (Texans/Eagles/Panthers/Chiefs) strike balance in their passing attack by running out of the same formations they pass in, which are the shotgun.
- The Bengals, Jets, Rams, and Broncos are similar to the high shotgun, high shotgun run, high run teams, but they simply run a bit less overall and a bit less out of the shotgun. They are just a bit more predictable. However, they still tend to run and pass out of the same formations.
- The 49ers, Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Seahawks try to stay in the same formations to pass and run, except they go undercenter for this. The 49ers do this and stay with base personnel much more (particularly 2RB), while the the Cardinals, Buccaneers, and Seahawks use 3WR much more. The 49ers consquently run more and the other teams pass more.
- The bulk of teams with a run/pass balance (Falcons, Saints, Chargers, Bears, Ravens, Bills, Titans, Vikings, Jaguars, Cowboys, Redskins, Colts) will simply change to advantageous personnel and/or formations for when they want to run. They generally have two sort of discreet offenses: one where they pass and one where they run. The high 2TE teams (Ravens, Titans, Bears, Bills, Vikings, Jaguars) try to use 2TE a lot, even while passing, to add a little balance. The moderate running teams (Falcons, Saints, Chargers) simply do it less. The rest (Cowboys, Redskins, Colts) are more overt in their choices. They use the 2TE fairly high, but they're still teams that predominantly use 3WR+ and run little out of the shotgun. Perhaps they can come out in 3WR and decide between shotgun or under center (for pass or run), but the stats don't make it clear.
- The rest of the teams don't have much of a pass/run balance. These are the Pats, Packers, Dolphins, Raiders, Browns, Steelers, Giants, and Lions. The Packers, Dolphins, Raiders, and Browns are simply high passing and high shotgun. They don't even run out of the shotgun much. If they're undercenter, they're very likely to run it too (minor exceptions: Packers and Dolphins). At least they tend to attack all areas of the field with the pass; that is arguably their only form of balance. The rest will vary their personnel more. The Pats use moderate-high 2TE and high 2RB. The Giants use high 4WR. The Steelers and Lions use moderate 2TE and run a bit more out of the shotgun.
- The Pats deserve a separate bullet point just to discuss their passing attack because I believe it's completely unique in the NFL in its philosophies. There's also this idea of being balanced not by changing between pass/run or between formations or between deep/short routes, but simply by scheming unique plays that balance out concepts which will beat man and zone. It's sort of a fundamental idea of doing a few things really well and just sticking to those things, even when the defense knows its coming. I went in more depth about this in a prior post of mine, but essentially the Pats do far more in terms of route adjustments (and probably protection adjustments) than other teams. These are pre-snap and post-snap reads, although usually only the latter is considered an 'option route'. In doing these things, they achieve balance and consistency while not having to run the lesser of their two offenses, the running attack, except when they want to (to run clock out). It's also worth pondering if these option routes and sight adjustments would even be possible if not out of their 3WR sets. In other words, how much of it could be blended into a classic attack that attempts to do everything from the same personnel and formation. That's one area for further investigation.
In summary, the following appear to be the discrete strategic choices that teams have:
- Have run/pass balance and use same formations and same personnel
- Do this from the shotgun with heavier personnel (mostly 2TE, but one team has successfully used 2RB to run from shotgun, and that was the Texans)
- Do this from the shotgun with lighter personnel and run a bit less
- Do this from undercenter with heavier personnel (2RB or 2TE)
- Do this from the shotgun with heavier personnel (mostly 2TE, but one team has successfully used 2RB to run from shotgun, and that was the Texans)
- Have run/pass balance and use same formations, but use different personnel
- Have run/pass balance and use same personnel, but use different formations
- Have run/pass balance and use somewhat similar personnel and formations, but also use deep and play action passes
- Don't have run/pass balance, but use same formations. (prefer disguise)
- Don't have run/pass balance, and use different formations and personnel. (prefer specialization)
Trends and results:
- Arguably the two trendiest offenses last year (Eagles and Chiefs) were running more from the shotgun, with a moderate amount of running overall, a moderate amount of deep passes, and a moderate amount of 2TE sets. Lots of 'moderate' in that sentence. In other words, they had a lot of balance. Some do this from the shotgun with lighter personnel and run a bit less.
- Teams: Chiefs, Panthers, Texans, Eagles, Bengals, Jets, Rams, Broncos in 2017
- Chip Kelly's Eagles and 49ers ran a lot from the shotgun
- Eric Reid's Eagles with Vick
- The Bills with Tyrod Taylor in 2015 and 2016 (they went from running it about 40-45% in the shotgun in 2015/2016 to just 18% in 2017)
- A few teams that I chose to categorize elsewhere, such as the Lions and Steelers, do dabble with this philosophy, but they're a tiny bit less balanced. I presumed that the Chiefs and Eagles were more balanced when in their peak offense, but they got out of it so frequently because they were successful and just needed to run the clock out.
- Most college offenses.
- Teams: Chiefs, Panthers, Texans, Eagles, Bengals, Jets, Rams, Broncos in 2017
- The old school WCO and Singleback teams are far and few between. The 49ers and Ravens run it best. One team believes in 2RB, the other in 2TE. (The Bears kinda believed in both, interestingly). The Seahawks can hardly take credit for their success from the system, since their success largely comes from winging it in the shotgun (which is not what the old school was about).
- Teams: 49ers, Ravens, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Seahawks in 2017
- The 49ers with Jim Harbaugh, and the Ravens since forever.
- The Pats when they had Gronk and Aaron Hernandez.
- The Falcons when they had Kyle Shanahan.
- The Redskins, sort of on and off during the past several years
- Many teams prior to 2010.
- Teams: 49ers, Ravens, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Seahawks in 2017
- Most teams are passers in the shotgun and runners under center. Some run shotgun less to compensate (e.g. Saints and Falcons), and some run shotgun *more* to compensate (e.g. Patriots).
- Teams: Falcons, New Orleans, Chargers, Bills, Bears, Titans, Vikings, Cowboys, Redskins, Colts, Packers, Dolphins, Raiders, Browns, Steelers, Giants, Lions, Pats in 2017
- Many teams prior to 2010.
- Teams: Falcons, New Orleans, Chargers, Bills, Bears, Titans, Vikings, Cowboys, Redskins, Colts, Packers, Dolphins, Raiders, Browns, Steelers, Giants, Lions, Pats in 2017
Conclusions:
- Some spread offense is coming into the NFL, and some bicameral and unicameral undercenter/balanced offenses are dying out. There are coaches considered to be geniuses that hold any of the three philosophies.
- The old choice used to be more flexible (and a bigger threat) vs more balanced (and harder to read). One was arguably more explosive, and the other was arguably more efficient. One required a certain kind of talent, and the other generally used a slightly different kind.
- The new choice seems to be between those older options which provide more safety for the QB (that you typically live and die by) and a newer option that requires much more mobile and tougher QBs but provides both flexibility and balance. There are some questions as to whether the newer style *actually* has more flexibility and balance if the opposing defenses have extra game film and weeks to prepare (as is the case in the playoffs) as well as what the longevity of such a style is, considering different injury risks.
Data:
My spreadsheet again: (link). I apologize that my spreadsheet is so ugly. Also, I did change a few things as I wrote this, so the categories in the first section may be in a different order or slightly modified in my actual spreadsheet.
This time, I needed NFL Savant and Sharp Football Stats for sources.
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