Kirwin rant on Suh

[hwc]

I'm convinced that the good teams have a player value model -- some kind of spreadsheet model for the 60 (or so) players that will be on the roster during the season. Something like 100 points for a hall of fame player. 50 points for an average NFL player. 30 points for a JAG. 10 points for a stiff that you would like to replace the minute you can.

So an average team under this kind of model is worth 3000 value points (60 players times 50 points). This lets you see the value of a Suh. If Wilfork in his prime was an 80 point player (Pro Bowl caliber, but not Hal of Fame), then Suh is worth (max) 20 points more than Wilfork on a 3000 point roster. Not much incremental gain for double the contract.

You could get just as much incremental value from upgrading one 10 point stiff to a 30 point JAG and that would cost you nothing.

I guarantee that Belichick and Ernie Adams have some kind of econometrics model along these lines to keep themselves focused on value.

 

[hwc]

Ahh. it makes sense. Dolphins radio guy on with Kirwin. Pats broke them. He said that, last year at this time, all the AFC East teams thought the Pats were finally vulnerable. The Fins (and others) thought they finally, after all those years, had a shot at the Pats. And, then the Pats were hoisting the Lombardi trophy again. We broke them. They are desperate.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I'm convinced that the good teams have a player value model -- some kind of spreadsheet model for the 60 (or so) players that will be on the roster during the season. Something like 100 points for a hall of fame player. 50 points for an average NFL player. 30 points for a JAG. 10 points for a stiff that you would like to replace the minute you can.

So an average team under this kind of model is worth 3000 value points (60 players times 50 points). This lets you see the value of a Suh. If Wilfork in his prime was an 80 point player (Pro Bowl caliber, but not Hal of Fame), then Suh is worth (max) 20 points more than Wilfork on a 3000 point roster. Not much incremental gain for double the contract.

You could get just as much incremental value from upgrading one 10 point stiff to a 30 point JAG and that would cost you nothing.

I guarantee that Belichick and Ernie Adams have some kind of econometrics model along these lines to keep themselves focused on value.

Very interesting thought, and you are probably right. I've also thought for a long-time that they use a point system not that dissimilar to Moneyball, although it's probably a simpler player analysis; has more to do with the replacement values of players. I'd love to see someone put some of these out. I believe it was ESPN or SI (I stopped reading them after BSGate) had some kind of chart using A, B, C for player values for each team in order to show what they needed to contend for a SB. Of course, that defeats the whole purpose of using a numerical system.

 

[lurker1965]

Lets be real here - a LOT of the HC/GM's doing the big spending probably figure they wont be around in 3 years to deal with the cap hell if they don't start getting immediate results.

The beauty of the Belichick situation is that he has as much job security as any HC/GM has ever had in the NFL - he can afford to think long term.

Guys like Rex Ryan, even though he is in his 1st year in Buffalo, know that he is on a short leash if he continues the downward performance spiral of his coaching career to date.

I think Idzik tried to curb Ryans flamboyant spending but ended up going a little too far the other way and it cost both of them their jobs.

OT: what I think cost him his job was the owner is a nincompoop. Seriously, supposedly Idzik and Rex wanted Revis last year but Woody pulled rank. Now that he has fired Idzik he claims the guy he fired was so against it he went against the boss and let Revis pass by. And now he wants Revis. The problem with the Jets is the owner.

 

[lurker1965]

Giving contracts like that to anything but a QB pretty much guarantees you won't win a Super Bowl.

Actually, are there any teams that have won a Super Bowl with a QB getting paid such a high percentage of the cap either?

Colts in 2006, unfortunately. Edit: 2006 season in 2007: XLI against Chicago.

 

[hwc]

It always goes back to the owner. The bad owners punch the gas pedal to the floor this year, slam on the brakes next year, gas it the third year, slid to a stop the fourth year and end up lurching down the highway in a broken down jalopy.

 

[VrabelJr]

Colts in 2006, unfortunately. Edit: 2006 season in 2007: XLI against Chicago.

Yeah that's who I figured it would be. Thanks!

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Ahh. it makes sense. Dolphins radio guy on with Kirwin. Pats broke them. He said that, last year at this time, all the AFC East teams thought the Pats were finally vulnerable. The Fins (and others) thought they finally, after all those years, had a shot at the Pats. And, then the Pats were hoisting the Lombardi trophy again. We broke them. They are desperate.

Let me be the first to congratulate Patsfans members here for this!
Last season there was SO much whining and negativity on this board, Brady in Decline being the most egregious example, that other teams felt that the AFCE was finally theirs ripe for the taking.

Folks need to reflect back and re-assess their entire approach to football if they predicted THE END for a team & QB they supposedly follow that went 12-4 and won the Lombardi, trouncing vaunted Denver in the process.

 

[shmessy]

Let me be the first to congratulate Patsfans members here for this!
Last season there was SO much whining and negativity on this board, Brady in Decline being the most egregious example, that other teams felt that the AFCE was finally theirs ripe for the taking.

Folks need to reflect back and re-assess their entire approach to football if they predicted THE END for a team & QB they supposedly follow that went 12-4 and won the Lombardi, trouncing vaunted Denver in the process.

Please. They'd be doing the very same thing were it not for the 5 week post-Super Bowl glow.

No one has learned anything. The homers are still homers and the chcken littles are still chicken littles.


.

 

[Joker]

No....the "homers" are actually Patriots F-A-N-S. Fans of the New England Patriots. I am PROUD that I am a Patriots fan and no amount of negative connotations hurled at me as a "homer" will change that.

The CL's come in all forms, from outright trolls to insecure, surrender first, perpetual pessimists.

 

[1960Pats]

No....the "homers" are actually Patriots F-A-N-S. Fans of the New England Patriots. I am PROUD that I am a Patriots fan and no amount of negative connotations hurled at me as a "homer" will change that.

The CL's come in all forms, from outright trolls to insecure, surrender first, perpetual pessimists.

The Pats should have won over all of our fans by now, but it doesn't mean we can't still be critical of some things. For instance, I will never agree that the 4th and 2 play was handled correctly.

IMHO the worst thing about the CLs is that they get more board time than they should, usually in the form of fans responding and/or complaining about them.

The same type of thing took place when Tebow was with the Pats. It wasn't the posts from the ChristianCat types that was bad, it was the dozen or so responses that went with every one of his.

One of the analogies that I like to use is that of the golfer on a course behind a slow group. It isn't the slow play that bothers me as much as the people in my group complaining about it on every tee.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I don't see skeptics or substantive reasoned critics as CLs.
I do see the typical "PANIC BUTTON" breathless posters as CLs.
Mostly found in the Game thread but sometimes here.

 

[shmessy]

I don't see skeptics or substantive reasoned critics as CLs.
I do see the typical "PANIC BUTTON" breathless posters as CLs.
Mostly found in the Game thread but sometimes here.

I don't care, I can't stand it!!!!!!!