Kicking the 56 yard FG vs going for it on 4th and 3

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Did anyone see the Chargers-Chiefs game a couple of weeks ago. Really aggressive playcalling from their coach, Brandon Staley, down the stretch at Arrowhead.

4th and 4 at KC 30 (48 seconds left)
Staley opts-out of a 47-yard field goal attempt. Knowing its the Chargers, as fans we all knew this was a certain miss, due to them being the Chargers, but you almost never see a coach make the right call here. The decision is about putting the ball in your best player's hands (Herbert) to win the game, rather than putting your fate into the hands of Mahomes and your kicker. If you convert, KC is probably not getting the ball back.

4th and 9 at KC 35 (48 seconds left)
But the crazy thing is that the Chargers, being the Chargers, commit a false start, backing them into a 4th and 9. Now it seems like the odds would absolutely favor the 52 yard field goal, right? Well, the coach says **** it and uses the same reasoning. The Chiefs defense sucks, the Chargers passing game is solid, Herbert can still win the game. Goes for it and converts.

1st and 10 at KC 20 (41 seconds left)
This is another great call. A lot of coaches would just bleed KC's final timeout and take a few very risk-averse, short-yardage plays to try to get in a few yards closer (spoiler: Chargers kicker later shanks the extra point, as expected.). Again the Chargers opt to let Herbert win the game. For all the hoopla, there's a very low risk of an interception or turnover, and as you move closer, the odds of converting the GW field goal go up a lot. Objectively, it's a lot smarter to continue attacking, especially when you have an advantage, rather than settling for a field goal attempt that's by no means a chip shot. Herbert completes a 16-yard pass to Williams down to the KC 4.

1st and Goal at KC 4 (32 seconds left)
This one is a even a little bolder, and I don't know if I agree with it, though again, how many times have the Chargers ****ed up on some special teams play to lose? So again, he lets Herbert win the game. KC has one timeout left, so I think running the ball is the right call, or taking a knee, and then a walk off 21 yard field goal. But he lets Herbert throw, and he throws a TD...winds up letting KC having the ball after all, and of course, the Chargers Charger by missing the extra point

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The NextGen uses in-game technology (not different games). Not only do they question his 4th qtr fg decision but also the 4th & 2 play at the end of the half, when Bill chose to punt it to Brady. What did Brady do? Drive the ball down the field for a half ending fg!

I know that as a member of the Taliban, you're against technology or any modern way of thinking, sticking with archaic concepts and beliefs. Try educating yourself instead of spouting nonsense. You have zero credibility around here.

Coaches in recent years have smartened up to the idea that judgment fourth down attempts are almost always the right move statistically. I think that punt there is another one where you don't need hindsight at all to say it's the wrong call. They had just picked up 15 yards on a 3rd and 17. I don't know many coaches who punt on 4th and 2 from their opponent 44. I can understand not loving the matchup against Tampa's front 7 without much of a running game threat, but the Patriots have been running 3rd/4th and short out of shotgun for years now with an obvious pass coming. Overall, if the idea is that you don't want to give away the momentum and want to play it safe instead, that's the definition of playing not to lose.

 

[venecol]

Coaches in recent years have smartened up to the idea that judgment fourth down attempts are almost always the right move statistically. I think that punt there is another one where you don't need hindsight at all to say it's the wrong call. They had just picked up 15 yards on a 3rd and 17. I don't know many coaches who punt on 4th and 2 from their opponent 44. I can understand not loving the matchup against Tampa's front 7 without much of a running game threat, but the Patriots have been running 3rd/4th and short out of shotgun for years now with an obvious pass coming. Overall, if the idea is that you don't want to give away the momentum and want to play it safe instead, that's the definition of playing not to lose.

The fact BB didn't go for it on either 4th down play at the end of each half speaks volumes. He was either trying to protect Mac in the event he failed or didn't believe Mac would make the play. Idk. I've already said I'm OK with his choice to kick the fg. It's a tough call.

It's odd though since Mac had a 100% conversion rate (2021 New England Patriots Stats | Sortable 3rd Down, Red Zone Passing and Rushing Opponent Stats.) on passes to the short right (<15 yds) and 80% to the short left and less successful towards the middle (47%). And despite them not running the ball much, the Bucs still put a GL defense when he passed the ball to Smith for the TD. So clearly, running was in Bowles' mind as an option. Not sure how successful Mac was under center vs shot gun though.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

The fact BB didn't go for it on either 4th down play at the end of each half speaks volumes. He was either trying to protect Mac in the event he failed or didn't believe Mac would make the play. Idk. I've already said I'm OK with his choice to kick the fg. It's a tough call.

It's odd though since Mac had a 100% conversion rate (2021 New England Patriots Stats | Sortable 3rd Down, Red Zone Passing and Rushing Opponent Stats.) on passes to the short right (<15 yds) and 80% to the short left and less successful towards the middle (47%). And despite them not running the ball much, the Bucs still put a GL defense when he passed the ball to Smith for the TD. So clearly, running was in Bowles' mind as an option. Not sure how successful Mac was under center vs shot gun though.

Classic Bowles. The Patriots can’t run on the Bucs for that yard and everyone knows it’s getting stuffed. Patriots put in Jonnu Smith on the goal line, who can’t block, as a tight end. Bowles brings the house with a complete sellout blitz. Lol.

 

[1960Pats]

Can we stop with the 4th and 2 at Indy comparison to the Bucs ending. They're like night and day.

On the 4th and 2 play the Pats were winning and around their own 30, after they passed on 3rd and 2 and took their last TO with a little over 2 minutes left. When they passed again on 4th down there was still more than 2 minutes left and combined with being out of TOs they couldn't get a replay on Faulk's catch.

On the FG attempt to take the lead in the Bucs game they were losing and confident that they could make the kick and then stop the Bucs.

I didn't care for either decision but the 4th and 2 at Indy was way worse.

 

[goheels22002]

What a thread! Belichick had to make a call and he went with his kicker who hadn't missed a FG yet. Folk hit it long enough to go through if it had been 10" to the right. It wasn't. Tough play that ruined a great night of football.

The team played hard-nosed, rock fight football against the defending champs who came into Gillette expecting to blow the Pats out. Did not happen. The defense did a great job against Brady and all the weapons he had at his disposal. Mac Jones stood in there and completed passes while getting hit by a great front four. It is what it is.

Everybody got what they wanted from the new tight ends and some excellent play by the WRs. There were so many upsides to that game. The only two areas where the Patriots need focus are the OL and turnovers. I don't fault the running game against the Buccaneers' front seven.

They need a run of clean games taking care of the football, but my guess is they get to 4-4 by Halloween. As we know, they always get better as the season progresses, and we're seeing a nice progression of the playbook expanding with Mac Jones at the controls.

The Texans are up next. The Patriots should blow them out. The next challenge will be the Cowboys at home, which is a winnable game if the defense can continue to do its thing. Then the Jets. The defense is 6th in opponent ppg allowed at 17.5. That should improve against the Texans.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Can we stop with the 4th and 2 at Indy comparison to the Bucs ending. They're like night and day.

On the 4th and 2 play the Pats were winning and around their own 30, after they passed on 3rd and 2 and took their last TO with a little over 2 minutes left. When they passed again on 4th down there was still more than 2 minutes left and combined with being out of TOs they couldn't get a replay on Faulk's catch.

On the FG attempt to take the lead in the Bucs game they were losing and confident that they could make the kick and then stop the Bucs.

I didn't care for either decision but the 4th and 2 at Indy was way worse.

I actually think 4th and 2 was a good call and 4th and 3 wasn't. Funny how we look at the same thing but have different opinions. I think they could have made 4th and 3.

 

[Ian]

He thinks he had something to do with the IC incident, even though he had zero to do with it. He’s basically just going around now looking to pick a fight, thinking he has some authoritative sway on here. It’s pathetic that one man’s delusions of self-importance will cause some poor moderator to have to waste their time reading a Report over a nothing burger. But his never ending quest for for attention is more important to him than his dignity, self-respect, and the personal time of moderators who will merely roll their eyes.

Follow the rules. Society has rules. Organizations have rules. Communities have rules. You are not above them.

His problem is that we have records of his posts with insults, name calling, even telling @Tony2046 that his gf performed fellatio on him. He tries to act rational, mature, prim and proper when he's just a scum bag.

OK...let's move this along and we have what most would consider a pretty big game this weekend.

We're on to the Texans.

 

[Ian]

It's odd though since Mac had a 100% conversion rate (2021 New England Patriots Stats | Sortable 3rd Down, Red Zone Passing and Rushing Opponent Stats.) on passes to the short right (<15 yds) and 80% to the short left and less successful towards the middle (47%). And despite them not running the ball much, the Bucs still put a GL defense when he passed the ball to Smith for the TD. So clearly, running was in Bowles' mind as an option. Not sure how successful Mac was under center vs shot gun though.

BTW - appreciate the mention on this with the stats page. I've been doing this for almost 10-years and didn't get into it last year because it's one of the most difficult features of the site that literally no one used...so I finally shelved it last season. I got back into it this year because of Mac being drafted thinking it would be nice to at least log his whole career, along with having an "Aha" moment with figuring out a cool way to add the snap counts to it and having those also be sortable. Manually doing those (the snap counts) literally takes a couple of hours, so it's cool to see people have finally started using it.

 

[venecol]

BTW - appreciate the mention on this with the stats page. I've been doing this for almost 10-years and didn't get into it last year because it's one of the most difficult features of the site that literally no one used...so I finally shelved it last season. I got back into it this year because of Mac being drafted thinking it would be nice to at least log his whole career, along with having an "Aha" moment with figuring out a cool way to add the snap counts to it and having those also be sortable. Manually doing those (the snap counts) literally takes a couple of hours, so it's cool to see people have finally started using it.

Seems like a lot of work but very useful and handy. It beats trying to find info on other websites.

 

[Ian]

Seems like a lot of work but very useful and handy. It beats trying to find info on other websites.

That's actually why I started it. I couldn't find the info elsewhere where it was easy to sort. The league has some splits by down, but if you wanted to see who the Patriots leading 3rd down receiver was in the 4th quarter in the red zone, (or the quarterback's passing stats) it didn't exist. Like in the preseason, I couldn't find how many completions Brady or someone had to a particular receiver because obviously the totals get lumped in together. I added being able to toggle QBs the year they drafted Jimmy G to compare his completions, and it obviously became a little more important in 2016 when Garoppolo and Brissett were playing.

Even like now, if someone like Meyers throws a pass, it gets totaled into the receiver's numbers, so you can't see Mac's completions on a particular down, etc. without knowing when Meyers attempted those.

So yeah...that's some of the context behind why I started it. And I check all the totals against the league numbers (even the directional) to ensure they match 100% before I update each week. So everything has also been double-checked for accuracy.

The snaps aren't sortable anywhere - but I attach the personnel groupings to each play and since I know those are right (and since I'm visually seeing the players), that's how I know those are also accurate. Trying to work on one for the defense, but that remains a work in progress.

 

[Ian]

Also, the range of games thing was something else I added to be able to compare a group of games against each other, which I haven't seen elsewhere. So if you wanted to see Mac's red zone throws from Weeks 1 and 2 vs Weeks 3 and 4, it didn't (and still doesn't) exist elsewhere, or at least not in a way to make those numbers easily found.

 

[venecol]

Also, the range of games thing was something else I added to be able to compare a group of games against each other, which I haven't seen elsewhere. So if you wanted to see Mac's red zone throws from Weeks 1 and 2 vs Weeks 3 and 4, it didn't (and still doesn't) exist elsewhere, or at least not in a way to make those numbers easily found.

I haven't tried that feature yet.

 

[Ian]

I haven't tried that feature yet.

That's basically where you can check/uncheck particular games, so you can view totals from one game, or a couple of games. Like if you wanted to compare his third-down throws in the first two games vs the last two, etc. That sort of thing.

 

[venecol]

That's basically where you can check/uncheck particular games, so you can view totals from one game, or a couple of games. Like if you wanted to compare his third-down throws in the first two games vs the last two, etc. That sort of thing.

I've used the checks but not the compare feature unless you mean check one set and then the other later to compare.

 

[Ian]

I've used the checks but not the compare feature unless you mean check one set and then the other later to compare.

Yeah...basically. Unchecking games, and then checking the new ones (and unchecking the previous ones) allows you to compare totals in different situations. I thought about coming up with making it where you could save one set of totals to actively compare them, but that would way overcomplicate it and the goal was to make it simple for people to use.

 

[Captain Cliche]

The game was lost when JJ fumbled.
They were just starting to roll and lost all momentum.
You can't cough it up against the Champs and expect to win.
This offense is not good enough for that yet.

 

[captain stone]

Did anyone see the Chargers-Chiefs game a couple of weeks ago. Really aggressive playcalling from their coach, Brandon Staley, down the stretch at Arrowhead.

4th and 4 at KC 30 (48 seconds left)
Staley opts-out of a 47-yard field goal attempt. Knowing its the Chargers, as fans we all knew this was a certain miss, due to them being the Chargers, but you almost never see a coach make the right call here. The decision is about putting the ball in your best player's hands (Herbert) to win the game, rather than putting your fate into the hands of Mahomes and your kicker. If you convert, KC is probably not getting the ball back.

4th and 9 at KC 35 (48 seconds left)
But the crazy thing is that the Chargers, being the Chargers, commit a false start, backing them into a 4th and 9. Now it seems like the odds would absolutely favor the 52 yard field goal, right? Well, the coach says **** it and uses the same reasoning. The Chiefs defense sucks, the Chargers passing game is solid, Herbert can still win the game. Goes for it and converts.

1st and 10 at KC 20 (41 seconds left)
This is another great call. A lot of coaches would just bleed KC's final timeout and take a few very risk-averse, short-yardage plays to try to get in a few yards closer (spoiler: Chargers kicker later shanks the extra point, as expected.). Again the Chargers opt to let Herbert win the game. For all the hoopla, there's a very low risk of an interception or turnover, and as you move closer, the odds of converting the GW field goal go up a lot. Objectively, it's a lot smarter to continue attacking, especially when you have an advantage, rather than settling for a field goal attempt that's by no means a chip shot. Herbert completes a 16-yard pass to Williams down to the KC 4.

1st and Goal at KC 4 (32 seconds left)
This one is a even a little bolder, and I don't know if I agree with it, though again, how many times have the Chargers ****ed up on some special teams play to lose? So again, he lets Herbert win the game. KC has one timeout left, so I think running the ball is the right call, or taking a knee, and then a walk off 21 yard field goal. But he lets Herbert throw, and he throws a TD...winds up letting KC having the ball after all, and of course, the Chargers Charger by missing the extra point


View attachment 36398

That 1st/goal call with 36 seconds left was a TERRIBLE decision... They should've run/snuck the ball right up the middle twice, then kicked the game-winner on 3rd down with about 7 seconds left. At the very Very VERY least, they should've run/snuck on first down so KC would've had to use their final timeout. Staley got away with one there.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

That 1st/goal call with 36 seconds left was a TERRIBLE decision... They should've run/snuck the ball right up the middle twice, then kicked the game-winner on 3rd down with about 7 seconds left. At the very Very VERY least, they should've run/snuck on first down so KC would've had to use their final timeout. Staley got away with one there.

Imagine if the Chiefs had gotten that hail mary DPI call and then won with a TD and extra point? Yeah, that was pretty crazy ****.

 

[Biffins]

4th and 13. Giants' 31 yard line. Gostkowski ready to kick 50 yard FG. Score 7-3. 3rd quarter. 6:54 time left on 3rd.

Go for it??!?!?!?!?!??!

FOURTH AND FRICKIN THIRTEEN!! And we're ahead. And there's no requirement for TDs. In fact it's a tight game and FGs are valuable.

Go for it?!?!?!!?

Biggest coaching blunder in Superbowl history after the Carroll call to throw? Ok maybe I exaggerate. Too harsh on Carroll. BB's call is much more obvious than Carroll's!!!!!!