Just For Fun--Your Guess

[yukon cornelius]

11-6

 

[crawhammer]

Well, that’s one way to basically cover yourself at every level. They’ll either suck, be good, or be great. Good deal. Hard to be wrong there.

Well, sort of. I did say my prediction is 6-11. I see you went with the opposite, 11-6, which I put as the ceiling but I think the probability of it is extremely low. You also provided a bit of a cushion for yourself by saying you're optimistic (hoping for the best possible outcome) but you'll see where things are by December (when by the way they've fallen apart four seasons consecutively so even if they're in good shape who knows).

6-11 is a bad record but I don't think they're going to suck. Their schedule is tough and they're just not as good as their opponents collectively. I'm looking at two things mainly at this point... the first 4 games and the division.

1-3 is a probable start as I see it. The Eagles are a much better team. I'm expecting Rodgers and the Jets to be very good this season (they should challenge the Bills for the division). And although I'm not entirely crazy about the Cowboys, I confidently have them beating the Patriots in week 4. Miami is iffy for two reasons: Tua's health and their defense which sucked last season. I think the Patriots beat them in Foxboro.

As for the division, I think 2-4 is most likely, 3-3 at best if they can sweep Miami. Until I see remotely otherwise, we can't stop Josh Allen and we don't have the requisite offense to keep up, so they're going to sweep us again. We won't sweep NYJ, they could sweep us, but a split is most likely.

So with the 1-3 start, and the 2-4 divisional record, I have a very hard time crunching out enough wins otherwise for them to get above 8 wins. But as I said I'm predicting 6-11 at this point. I'll reassess it just before the season starts.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

7-10

Vegas is 7.5.

 

[Sect140]

I believe that's the floor.. 11-12 wins is the ceiling..

That would be awesome.

 

[Real fan 02]

That would be awesome.

I'm using some hope, want, and common sense logic.. in 2021 under real coaching they were tops in all the offensive stats that matter and are conducive to scoring and wins.

This was done without a number 1 at WR.. and with jannu Smith and alghlor here. So safe to assume they could achieve a top 10 offense yet again this season. IMO

 

[Brewskies]

Here's what I'll say. In 2021 under Josh offensively we were top 10. Top 5 in the red zone.. with alglhor and jannu smith on this roster.

This team can achieve success offensively.. I know the schedule is tough.. But I believe this team is being judged off last season..

It's not about anyone other than the patriots if they play aggressively, and sound they will be in good positions to hang with teams this season.

Maybe my hope and desire for them to win has me blinded.. but I feel like we get 11-12 wins this season.

I hope you are right. As I said this is a tough schedule. Hell in the East they will be lucky to split with Miami and the Jets. I think they lose both to Buffalo, that would be a 2-4 record for the East if they are lucky, in my opinion. Could be 1-5 in the East. Best case 3-3. It is the schedule that will hurt them. Their defense is stronger than their offense. Injuries will be a major factor this season, in my opinion, too many. Have a nice day.

 

[Brewskies]

As they are today, I like this team but man their schedule is tough.

9-8, maybe 10-7

Yeah, I feel the same about this team as I know it today but the killer schedule will cause injuries and will be difficult to overcome. I will stand with my 8-9 maybe as you say 9-8.

 

[Brewskies]

I'll say 11-6. I said 12 wins a couple of months ago based on a few things going their way, but regardless, they've got to get off to a better start. If they don't go 3-1 to open the season, it's a rough road because starting Week 6, it's a trip to Las Vegas, home against the Bills, and a trip to Miami. How that run goes could put them in a tough hole if they're already below .500 at that point. But unlike last year, I feel like they're going to be more competitive week in and week out. I think they'll surprise some people.

I would be delighted, but I am not that strong on the O and I think the schedule will wear down the D.

 

[Real fan 02]

I hope you are right. As I said this is a tough schedule. Hell in the East they will be lucky to split with Miami and the Jets. I think they lose both to Buffalo, that would be a 2-4 record for the East if they are lucky, in my opinion. Could be 1-5 in the East. Best case 3-3. It is the schedule that will hurt them. Their defense is stronger than their offense. Injuries will be a major factor this season, in my opinion, too many. Have a nice day.

I have us spitting with the AFC East, and getting 8 wins from opponents on our schedule. Your absolutely correct injury wich unfortunately is so much as Parr of the game as anything will be major factors. My opinion the jets are the TOUGHER opponent than Buffalo or Miami.

They have a relentless defense that you cannot move the ball on. You also be well!

 

[Brewskies]

I'll say 11-6. I said 12 wins a couple of months ago based on a few things going their way, but regardless, they've got to get off to a better start. If they don't go 3-1 to open the season, it's a rough road because starting Week 6, it's a trip to Las Vegas, home against the Bills, and a trip to Miami. How that run goes could put them in a tough hole if they're already below .500 at that point. But unlike last year, I feel like they're going to be more competitive week in and week out. I think they'll surprise some people.

I would be delighted but I am not that strong on the O and I think the schedule will wear down the D.

I have us spitting with the AFC East, and getting 8 wins from opponents on our schedule. Your absolutely correct injury wich unfortunately is so much as Parr of the game as anything will be major factors. My opinion the jets are the TOUGHER opponent than Buffalo or Miami.

They have a relentless defense that you cannot move the ball on. You also be well!

We shall see I think the Jets are tougher than the Pats for sure. I think the Bills and Fins are also better than the Pats 2-4 in the east, maybe 3-3, sad Bills spend $301M on salaries for 2023 Pats 201.6M. The Pats are #31 out of 32 with salary spending. Big talk Kraft.

 

[Brewskies]

You what surprised me today, to learn that the Pats are #31 out of 32 in the NFL. I knew that they were cheap but this bad.

"The Patriots, meanwhile, are spending $201.6 million in cash on their 2023 roster, which ranks 31st in the NFL."
Bob Kraft talks the big game but doesn't walk it.

The Bills, Dolphins, and Jets are spending big money on their rosters. Why aren’t the Patriots? - The Boston Globe

The Patriots are currently spending $201.6 million in cash on their 2023 roster. The league average is $245.6 million, per the NFL Players Association.

www.bostonglobe.com

 

[Zuma]

10-7 with a playoff win

 

[Real fan 02]

I would be delighted but I am not that strong on the O and I think the schedule will wear down the D.

We shall see I think the Jets are tougher than the Pats for sure. I think the Bills and Fins are also better than the Pats 2-4 in the east, maybe 3-3, sad Bills spend $301M on salaries for 2023 Pats 201.6M. The Pats are #31 out of 32 with salary spending. Big talk Kraft.

You know something don't know that the jets are a tougher team.. I know that are the tougher opponent to move the ball on.. than. Bills or dolphins..thier defense I believe is best in the NFL I believe we are 2nd.. I honestly believe with the addition of gonzo makes us a legitimate elite defense.

I'm not as down on the offense.. you have to remember something. We were top 10 in offensive rating and top 3 in red zone efficiency in 2021 with a real OC, a rookie QB and alghlor and jannu smith on this roster. With no #1 WR..

We can very much be a top 10 offensive team again under BOB. I don't really get caught in spending the patriots manipulate the cap better than anyone..they have always been this type of team.. only difference is we aren't winning right now so everything becomes a focus. I'm holding firm I think we split and have a 3-3 division record..

 

[n6249c]

You what surprised me today, to learn that the Pats are #31 out of 32 in the NFL. I knew that they were cheap but this bad.

"The Patriots, meanwhile, are spending $201.6 million in cash on their 2023 roster, which ranks 31st in the NFL."
Bob Kraft talks the big game but doesn't walk it.

The Bills, Dolphins, and Jets are spending big money on their rosters. Why aren’t the Patriots? - The Boston Globe

The Patriots are currently spending $201.6 million in cash on their 2023 roster. The league average is $245.6 million, per the NFL Players Association.

www.bostonglobe.com

It’s not Kraft. He has said he’s willing to spend.

 

[Ring 6]

Well, sort of. I did say my prediction is 6-11. I see you went with the opposite, 11-6, which I put as the ceiling but I think the probability of it is extremely low. You also provided a bit of a cushion for yourself by saying you're optimistic (hoping for the best possible outcome) but you'll see where things are by December (when by the way they've fallen apart four seasons consecutively so even if they're in good shape who knows).

6-11 is a bad record but I don't think they're going to suck. Their schedule is tough and they're just not as good as their opponents collectively. I'm looking at two things mainly at this point... the first 4 games and the division.

1-3 is a probable start as I see it. The Eagles are a much better team. I'm expecting Rodgers and the Jets to be very good this season (they should challenge the Bills for the division). And although I'm not entirely crazy about the Cowboys, I confidently have them beating the Patriots in week 4. Miami is iffy for two reasons: Tua's health and their defense which sucked last season. I think the Patriots beat them in Foxboro.

As for the division, I think 2-4 is most likely, 3-3 at best if they can sweep Miami. Until I see remotely otherwise, we can't stop Josh Allen and we don't have the requisite offense to keep up, so they're going to sweep us again. We won't sweep NYJ, they could sweep us, but a split is most likely.

So with the 1-3 start, and the 2-4 divisional record, I have a very hard time crunching out enough wins otherwise for them to get above 8 wins. But as I said I'm predicting 6-11 at this point. I'll reassess it just before the season starts.

Saying the quiet part out loud.

 

[Brewskies]

It’s not Kraft. He has said he’s willing to spend.

Then who is it? Who pays the bills? Who owns the team? Who wants to win? Kraft is not dumb about football operations he knows what is going on.

 

[Real fan 02]

Then who is it? Who pays the bills? Who owns the team? Who wants to win? Kraft is not dumb about football operations he knows what is going on.

You know something... the teams always been this way.. they've always spent this way.. having such a humble superstar in Brady made it real easy to be able conduct business they way they have.. So they figure their formula works why change.. they did uncharacteristically spend in 2021.. no matter what's said I still believe RK has a bad taste about the Jonnu Smith contract..

 

[Ring 6]

You know something... the teams always been this way.. they've always spent this way.. having such a humble superstar in Brady made it real easy to be able conduct business they way they have.. So they figure their formula works why change.. they did uncharacteristically spend in 2021.. no matter what's said I still believe RK has a bad taste about the Jonnu Smith contract..

It was only uncharacteristically because they were in a position they hadn’t been in before where they had that much money to spend.
Every time they have that much money to spend they will spend it.

This is the piece that fans who just want to whine don’t get.
For many, many years the patriots had a roster that in total overperformed its payroll. Whichever players became free agents they couldn’t afford because they commanded more than they were playing for. They managed around that and of course they weren’t spending big on outside free agents because they struggled to retain their own.

By 2019/2020 they lost a lot of the base of the team. They had made an incredible run keeping the core together and then it largely left. Over 50% of the snaps player in the SB in 2018 were players not on the team in 2020. And in 2020 they had no cap space to use.
In 21 because of the above, and more players no longer here, they had a ton of free agent $$ to spend. The 21 team had 50% of the snaps played by players who were there in 2020. No team has ever overhauled a roster like that, not to mention start a rookie QB and win 10 games. 2021 was an incredible 1 year rebuild. They would have been better if they had more retention and less free agency but that was the price of success.
Last year they took a step back on offense. The defense was excellent and losing the OC clearly upset the growth of the rebuild.
Why would they do anything different than they always have? When he they were loaded they didn’t spend on FA because they couldn’t. When they had a ton of cap they spent it because they could.
When you look at the roster and cap situation on the first day of the league year 2020 being a 1 over .500 team the next 3 years, with a playoff berth (and frankly what would have been 2 if McDaniels didn’t leave) is better than reasonably would have been expected with an honest assessment

 

[Ring 6]

Then who is it? Who pays the bills? Who owns the team? Who wants to win? Kraft is not dumb about football operations he knows what is going on.

It’s not willing to spend or not, it’s whether you wish to spend the same money with lesser or greater risk.
The patriots spend to the cap every year. That means the dollars allocated to a given year are maxed.
If another team spends more cash, they do not have more dollars allocated to this year, they have spent dollars that get allocated to future years.
It’s not a matter of spending less, in the long run if you spend to the cap it’s the same thing, it’s disdain for spending money today that will reduce what you can spend later.

Example: a team is tight against the cap so it converts 15 mill of salary to signing bonus. If the contract has 3 years left, they push 10 mill into the future. Now they can spend 10 mill more now but 10 mill less the next 2 years. Their cash spent this year is higher but it’s just borrowed from the future.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Then who is it? Who pays the bills? Who owns the team? Who wants to win? Kraft is not dumb about football operations he knows what is going on.

Someone on this board or in the media mentioned that Bill has an incentive to spend less.

Shannon Sharpe I know mentioned teams don't spend so the Owners improve their bottom line.