Jimmy's Value

[patfanken]

Some comments on the comments:

1. Tom Brady will be a better QB than JG for at LEAST the next 3 years (including this one). JG will be a FA in 2. Just do the math guys and the conclusion is obvious. The Pats have to move on. AND JG will have no higher value than what it will be after the end of this season. This of course assumes he continues his good play for the next 3 games.

2. It would be a tougher decision to let JG go, except for the fact JB is on the roster for the next 4 seasons, and while he probably isn't ready to play now, he will have at least, 2-3 seasons to hone his craft, much like Jimmy has had. Garapolo wasn't even close to being ready to play when he first came into the league. I doubt he was ready last season, given the college and system he came from when he came into the league

3. JG would have a much higher value to a smart team than any potential #1 QB pick. Just look at the record of #1 picks. Even the FEW who become decent QB's take years to reach their ceiling. Any team picking JG speeds up the equation by 3 years, AND gets a guy who they know will get even better over time. PLUS they get one year on the cheap. PLUS they know he's been well taught in a great system, so they get all that training for free.

4. If the Pats decide to keep JG for another year, his value would go down about 20% at least, simply because they would lose a lot of leverage because of the small window of time they'd have to make a deal before JG became a FA. Still it might be something the Pats might do if they think they see a bigger drop off in Brady's play than they expect. But that would be the ONLY reason to keep him that extra year.

5. QB development is NEVER going to be a straight line progress. If you are lucky, its more of a 2 steps forward one step back kind of thing. I will not be surprised to see JG throw a stinker out there for one of his games. Also as there is more JG film, other teams will have a better book on him and defense him better. JG will have to learn to adjust to these new realities, just like good hitters do in baseball.

6. If the Pats decide that JBrissett is as good a prospect as JG was coming in, (and by all our eyes, it certainly looks like it) Then trading him at the end of the year would be the right way to go.

7. As to what would I demand. One poster felt we needed at least a top 16 pick to recover the value of JG's pick plus the one that was stolen. Based on what we've seen in other QB deals, I would need even more. I would be very disappointed without a top 8 pick plus a 4th, with at least a 2nd the following year.

I'd forego the 2nd, if the deal included a player that would be immediate help. Someone mentioned Joe Thomas in a Cleveland deal, and THAT would obviously do the trick (if it was cap possible)

 

[Tuck]

Some of Jimmy's value to the team right now is the fire he's lighting under TFB's ass.

 

[Off The Grid]

Let's enter into an imaginary land for a minute. It is the end of week 4 and the Browns call up and offer you their 1st round pick and Joe Thomas for Garoppolo, would you make that trade?

Hell, yeah.

01 ~ The Browns are unlikely to make any such Call. They're accumulating Picks, not dispersing them.

02 ~ But what you throw out there is a Trade that reflects True Market Value, I believe.

03 ~ The Browns have a very strong Chance to net the #1 Pick in the Draft.

04 ~ And Joe Thomas could be the Difference in Winning It All.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Seems like every young QB is lighting it up. So I'm not sure JG's value will be quite what you all think it will be. That being said if there is a desperate team like the Vikings they can make a great deal.

 

[The Gr8est]

Don't know if it's been posted in this thread yet or not, here's something I posted in another thread that was discussing Jimmy's value:

Predicting Garoppolo's Next Contract After Week 1

suggests that Jimmy is in line for a Brock Ostweiler kind of payday.

Not sure how that translates into draft picks needed to get Jimmy's rights.

Pretty sure we're overstating his value, but all it takes is one desperate party to set the market.

If his performance continues at a level like in game #1, I expect there will be competition for his services and that will drive the price up.

 

[patchick]

Daftniks worship draft picks. It is all out to proportion to what they merit. Brady is 40. He will need to be replaced within three years. If you are lucky enough to have a qualified replacement you keep him ]. He is cheap for two more seasons and Brady is signed for 3 more years at a high price. Who is to say that the Pats will not need a sub QB for an injury or that ta Brady will be worth his salary in three years?

These Draftniks act as if having a 4th reserve at CB or Offensive lineman is worth not having an adequate QB. QB is the most critical position to have a franchise starter, and if he is good enough and a groomed replacement for an elderly one. Polo is not going anywhere for a couple of years!

By "two more," are you including this season? (He's a UFA after next year.)

I can't speak for anybody else, but I value backup quarterbacks very highly. For me, the trade talk is based on the assumption that JG won't have any interest in re-signing as a backup when he has a chance to start elsewhere.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

JG was a 2nd round draft choice, in his 3rd year, trained by the best staff and mentor possible, who's athletic, accurate, and poised. He's not that risky, assuming he plays as well the next 3 games - worth a mid-1st rounder for sure .

A team like Cleveland would be unlikely to give up their 2017 first cause that will be a top 5 pick, which is too expensive. I could see their 2017 3rd or 4th together with the 2018 1st. It also depends on when the deal is made. If they made a huge offer 3 weeks from now, maybe it happens sooner than we think.

 

[Patriots_Master]

We don't know that Tom Brady will retire after the 5th superbowl rings, just like David Oritz is going to retire if they win the 4th World Series rings. I think we are going to keep Jimmy Garopollo because he's happy with the team and his coach Josh McDaniels is happy with the way they are running with the offense.

 

[SalemPats]

My guess is that Josh McD gets a head coaching gig and takes Jimmy with him

 

[Patriots_Master]

My guess is that Tom Brady likes what Jimmy G playing good football is really important to the team.

 

[Sciz]

As we talk about "desperation" being the key factor, I'm not sure there would be anybody more desperate than McDaniels, knowing that he may never get a third chance to be HC if the second opportunity isn't successful.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me if he's headed to Tennessee next year to work with Mariota.

 

[rochrist]

That is true. But it was a lot more than 4 games too.

Sure. A lot more games. That proved that not only was he not very good, he was made of freaking GLASS.

 

[RobertWeathers]

My guess is that Josh McD gets a head coaching gig and takes Jimmy with him

Good. While hes packing up his underwear he can leave two #1 picks by the nightstand.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Part of the math is the contract length. You get 4-5 years from a pick.

 

[Mack Herron]

 

[iapatsfan]

JG was a 2nd round draft choice, in his 3rd year, trained by the best staff and mentor possible, who's athletic, accurate, and poised. He's not that risky, assuming he plays as well the next 3 games - worth a mid-1st rounder for sure .

A team like Cleveland would be unlikely to give up their 2017 first cause that will be a top 5 pick, which is too expensive. I could see their 2017 3rd or 4th together with the 2018 1st. It also depends on when the deal is made. If they made a huge offer 3 weeks from now, maybe it happens sooner than we think.

However, one could assume they will need to take a qb with that top 5 pick. If they thought Jimmy G was the guy, why wouldn't they do it?

 

[carmelo15]

JG was a 2nd round draft choice, in his 3rd year, trained by the best staff and mentor possible, who's athletic, accurate, and poised. He's not that risky, assuming he plays as well the next 3 games - worth a mid-1st rounder for sure .

A team like Cleveland would be unlikely to give up their 2017 first cause that will be a top 5 pick, which is too expensive. I could see their 2017 3rd or 4th together with the 2018 1st. It also depends on when the deal is made. If they made a huge offer 3 weeks from now, maybe it happens sooner than we think.

However, one could assume they will need to take a qb with that top 5 pick. If they thought Jimmy G was the guy, why wouldn't they do it?

Browns just got finished taking the Eagles to school this this year they have 2 1s as well as Tennessee 2nd which should be top 36.

Anyway if they feel Jimmy is the one they can trade Eagles 1st and a 4th get a jimmy and have a top 3 pick and (33-37 pick) as well to build around.
We'd have a top 5 pick to either build the defense some more or get am elite WR like Juju Smith.

 

[carmelo15]

Also when a Chip Kelly was in Philadelphia they had strong interest in drafting Jimmy. They would absolutely would give a 1 and 4 for him if he proves his worth the rest of the way

 

[chasa]

i just asked my magic 8 ball and it said "ask again later"

Funnily enough thats the best answer to the question of "what is jimmy G's value.

 

[HawaiianPatsfan]

Don't forget the 5-11 Browns beat us in Cleveland in 2010, one of our 2 losses in the regular season that year. And that was with Brady.

These games are not for trying to maximize draft picks or develop rookies or any of that ****. You play to win the game.

And Brady will be rusty after his time off. Do you really want him to sit, then throw him in cold against the Bengals, with @ Steelers, @ Bills after?

Actually, do you ever want to sit the GOAT if you don't have to? We've already lost 4 games of his brilliant career this season. I don't ever want to lose another.

I get it. 5-11 browns. Yeah, but they brown crew is looking like they could go 0-16.

Your argument has lots of logic, however, If and when most likely the browns have shown to be absolutely nothing (0-4), I see the rest, and the possibility of injury. The rest is just as beneficial along with the other things I've combined. Its not like I'm saying he doesnt suit up. He could always come in later in the game if Jimmy somehow **** the bed, but if they're 4-0, I doubt that will be the case with the browns.