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Jason Vida on Pats' statistical 2009 weaknesses

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A look at the numbers from 2009 shows three areas where the New England Patriots need help in the draft. - ESPN Boston

He cites three weaknesses:

  • # of long offensive plays
  • Defensive yards per carry between the tackles
  • Defensive passer rating downfield between the hash marks
From that he concludes the Pats need to draft

  • A young, fast offensive playmaker
  • A Richard Seymour replacement
  • A new free safety
I think he's fried on the third one. What the Pats really need is a pass rusher to get to the QB before slow-unfolding plays downfield have a chance to happen.

I don't care so much about big offensive plays; I just want drives to end frequently in TDs, and those that don't to end frequently in FGs. If those are clock-eaters, I'm fine with that.

Replacing Seymour is highly desirable, but of course not totally easy ...
 
I guess he's concluding that the best way to improve downfield passer rating between the hashmarks is to upgrade the free safety position, but I don't concur either. Seems to me more pressure on the QB would be a better deterrent.
 
A look at the numbers from 2009 shows three areas where the New England Patriots need help in the draft. - ESPN Boston

He cites three weaknesses:

  • # of long offensive plays
  • Defensive yards per carry between the tackles
  • Defensive passer rating downfield between the hash marks
From that he concludes the Pats need to draft

  • A young, fast offensive playmaker
  • A Richard Seymour replacement
  • A new free safety
I think he's fried on the third one. What the Pats really need is a pass rusher to get to the QB before slow-unfolding plays downfield have a chance to happen.

I don't care so much about big offensive plays; I just want drives to end frequently in TDs, and those that don't to end frequently in FGs. If those are clock-eaters, I'm fine with that.

Replacing Seymour is highly desirable, but of course not totally easy ...

The most perfect Seymour replacement in years is only a trade away in Suh. I would offer the Rams #22, #44 and next year's #1 for this year's #1. Kraft and his tight wallet may cringe, but hey, great players do not come along often.
 
how does kraft have a tight wallet?
 
I'm not sure I want somebody more 'long offensive plays'. You think back to the glory days, we didn't have anybody who was a true long ball threat... and now we have Randy Moss already. And we have more than enough safeties.

As far as a Richard Seymour replacement, aside from OLB that is perhaps the biggest need right now.
 
I think the article makes some not so subtle observations, and the replies are probably on point --- my only gripe is that this 'playmaker' we need to draft could be chad jackson or it could be desean jackson.
I doubt anybody thinks we need chad jackson, while most of the nfl would love to draft desean, so I'm not sure how much insight we've gotten from these "next-level stats".
 
I guess he's concluding that the best way to improve downfield passer rating between the hashmarks is to upgrade the free safety position, but I don't concur either. Seems to me more pressure on the QB would be a better deterrent.

I agree that the middle of the Patriots defense was an issue. The problem is not Wilfork, but the DE next to him and the two ILBs. Guyton was disappointing. I think Mayo was playing hurt and we did not see the real Jerod Mayo. Merriweather made some collossal errors at FS.

I would love to see the Patriots select Sean Weatherspoon and put him next to Mayo. Besides his always yapping mouth (Spoon can back it up) he is an every down LB in the mold of Roman Phifer. His 4.5 speed makes him a sideline to sideline backer who can cover a back out of the backfield.

Next move up and take Jerry Hughes (the best pass rusher in the draft) and select one of several available DTs that will fill the "Seymour" hole (Jason Alualu, Lamarr Houston, Linval Joseph, Arthur Jones).

I don't believe we need a new FS, but pehaps some competition would be nice. Bring in Myron Rolle (smart Rhodes scholar) and give him a shot at making the team.
 
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Belichick has already addressed the problem with big plays down the middle. He re-inserted Sanders into the starting lineup.


As for the need for a playmaker (a/k/a WR3) and a replacement for Seymour, he's welcome to the party. He's also an entire season (minus 2 games for the WR3 need) late.
 
I guess he's concluding that the best way to improve downfield passer rating between the hashmarks is to upgrade the free safety position, but I don't concur either. Seems to me more pressure on the QB would be a better deterrent.

Right. This is a little bit like putting the card before the horse - using general team statistics to judge which player is causing the problem.

On the other hand, I think the stat about lack of big plays speaks volumes about the Pats. First, looking at the RBs, this was their output of 20+ plays last year:

Maroney - 2
Taylor - 0
Law Firm - 1
Morris - 2
Faulk - 3

So that's a total of 8 big plays in 16 games. What's more, 3 of those big plays came in the 1 blowout of Tennessee. By contrast, Maroney had at least 8 big plays by himself in 2006 when he was first drafted. Ironically, the Pats have not drafted a RB since then - one of only 2 or 3 teams that have not drafted one since 2006. So a big play RB is a major need - right up there with pass rushing OLB. Which why I'd love to get Jahvid Best here.

The other telling part of that is the downward slide of Randy Moss as a deep threat. In 2009, Randy only caught 7 passes that were in the air for 20+ yards. In 2008, with Cassell as QB, he caught 6. In 2007, he caught 14.
 
I agree that the middle of the Patriots defense was an issue. The problem is not Wilfork, but the DE next to him and the two ILBs. Guyton was disappointing. I think Mayo was playing hurt and we did not see the real Jerod Mayo. Merriweather made some collossal errors at FS.

I would love to see the Patriots select Sean Weatherspoon and put him next to Mayo. Besides his always yapping mouth (Spoon can back it up) he is an every down LB in the mold of Roman Phifer. His 4.5 speed makes him a sideline to sideline backer who can cover a back out of the backfield.

Next move up and take Jerry Hughes (the best pass rusher in the draft) and select one of several available DTs that will fill the "Seymour" hole (Jason Alualu, Lamarr Houston, Linval Joseph, Arthur Jones).

I don't believe we need a new FS, but pehaps some competition would be nice.
Bring in Myron Rolle (smart Rhodes scholar) and give him a shot at making the team.

Interesting take, and I like your scenario a lot. If we could get Spoon, Hughes, Alualu with our first three, I'd be ecstatic. The key is getting a pressure on the QB. If BB thinks he can get it through scheming alone.....well. that's what we've had the last several years.

There's been very little talk about the need to upgrade from Guyton and slide Mayo to WILB. I hope McKenzie will be that guy, but no one knows what BB is thinking. The more I think about it the more I think we need both an ILB stud and an OLB stud.

Pro bowl or not, I see Merriweather as an adequate FS. Hopefully he keeps improving, loses the brain cramps he tends to have, and truly becomes an elite NFL safety.
 
i can see the pats drafting a power back. but i mean how many big plays can the pats have they are not going to score 500 points every year.



draft. a Dline men with seymour ability realy lol if it was that easy to just draft a seymour, every year oakland would not have traded a #1 for him. but yes the pats need a big DE



i don't see a need for a FS Brandon Meriweather, is realy a FS and chung can play SS the pats biggest problem with geting beat deep IMO was #1 no pass rush and #2 weak play from the nickle and dime backs
 
A look at the numbers from 2009 shows three areas where the New England Patriots need help in the draft. - ESPN Boston

He cites three weaknesses:

  • # of long offensive plays
  • Defensive yards per carry between the tackles
  • Defensive passer rating downfield between the hash marks
From that he concludes the Pats need to draft

  • A young, fast offensive playmaker
  • A Richard Seymour replacement
  • A new free safety
I think he's fried on the third one. What the Pats really need is a pass rusher to get to the QB before slow-unfolding plays downfield have a chance to happen.

I don't care so much about big offensive plays; I just want drives to end frequently in TDs, and those that don't to end frequently in FGs. If those are clock-eaters, I'm fine with that.

Replacing Seymour is highly desirable, but of course not totally easy ...

Interesting. I know this is out of the box but a few moves can help our defense immensely. None of them will be popular on this site (.....really?).I am all for having the biggest D-Line as possible with talent and flexibility. If you can be one of the best Teams in the NFL against the run, you can concentrate on the pass by design.

We have the chips to get this done. We have Teams like the Redskins and more who are desperate for Draft picks.

I think our back seven speed last year was an issue other than Mayo (and Butler in the sets he played). I think Guytons speed is wasted at ILB. AD with all of his presumed speed looked very slow last year...what happened there? Bodden is adequate, Wilhite has blazing straight line speed but in no way does it translate to the football field. Merriweather is mediocre and takes bad angles. McGown is about like Merriweather in speed and Sanders is extremely slow.

Vida makes a good point. Big plays are the result of bad tackling and lack of game speed. Other than VW who was doubled every game, our end play regressed with Warren having a bad year and Green was just bad. Burgess did not help at all and TBC was our real only pressure.

I would like to see a full rotation D-Line. I say we start by Drafting NT Cody at #22?...what!!!!!!??? As I have mentioned before in a very stout SEC conference, no running back went over a hundred yards when he was in the game.He is THE ONLY PLAYER in this NFL Draft that you have to game plan differently for. Wilfork played DE very well last year upon occasion.

Now I want to take pick #53 and AD (why would the Skins take him? He would be the only LB on their Team with 3-4 experience and could play opposite Orakpo and they can move their player in return) and Trade for Haynesworth and stick him at DE (Did you know at Tenn., Haynesworth ran a 4.82 40 and had a 39" vertical? Seymour was quick but ran a 4.9). Haynesworth was 317 them and high 340lbs now. Yes a few lbs lighter would be ideal but the motivation of both Seymour and Haynesworth have prevented them from pounding hard on the Hall of Fame doors. Harynesworth is still young (two years younger than Seymour). His contract works now. The Skins want a 2nd round pick. Swap #53 and AD for Haynesworth and their 4th (very early at #103 so at the end of the Third round almost).

Now you could have a line of Haynesworth at DE, Cody at NT and Wilfork at DE. Who does the opponent double team? Now you have a great rotation of Warren to work with Wilfork at NT and Haynesworth at DE.
If you notice we play some of the largest DEs of all 3-4 Teams other than the Ravens (and they can clog it up). This could then be the best 3-4 D-Line package in the NFL.

At #103 you can then have a shot at Spikes. He started this Draft season as a first rounder. He is your Ted Johnson SILB we have not had since TJ retired. Our middle run defense has now been upgraded.

If you remember Eugene Wilson was a CB conversion that gave us an athletic FS for our Super Bowl Teams. He was not my favorite but the NFL trend some six years later to go for this type of Safety. Akwasi Owus-Ansah of little Indiana PA could be a steal. "Scouts note his size, speed and hands on the corner and his versatility to return kicks. Owusu-Ansah lined up at safety quite often to take advantage of his centerfielder skills and could be used there in the NFL. Whether teams view him as a cornerback or safety, they'll value his skills. Defensive backs with size, speed, hands and return skills aren't easy to find." 4.32 speed and a 6.84 cone. He is 6' and 207lbs."With eight interceptions and 10 pass breakups in 2008, teams stayed away from Owusu-Ansah last fall".

He is rated somewhere around #70 with a bullet. He can be a Pats pick. He solves our return issues from last year as well.

Now we still have #44 and #47 and #119 before you get to, as one poster put it "the Hails Mary's" at the sixth and seventh (we have no fifth).

I swap #47 to the Eagles for their #70 and # 87 both in the third. It has been said the Eagles want to move back into the first. With three second rounders it would not be an issue. The Draft value chart is just about right if the Birds throw in a 6th at #200.

Use #44 for an outside rusher like Saap or Hughes. Take #70 and Draft Gerhart for a long term solution at RB and at #85 you can go for Ansah or perhaps a Eric Decker who is steal there and a big time future playmaker (McClusker?).

I am not done. "Waste not Want not". I have mentioned this before as well. It has appeared on the Bears site that TE Greg Olsen is still a candidate to be moved. He is young, talented with 70 receptions. They have made mention they want a vet Safety for their Team in 2010 and I have even seen Sanders name mentioned. I say we can work a Trade with the Bears and get a move TE and we have solved the blocking TE part. As you all know I would not shed a tear, but seriously it would work for both sides.We need a more athletic Safety and they need a stabilizing Safety. I will give James his due, He can be that for the Bears.

These are just IMO(DISCLAIMER) but it does respond to Vidas weaknesses and I would love watching that front seven in 2010.

DW Toys
 
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Interesting. I know this is out of the box but a few moves can help our defense immensely. None of them will be popular on this site (.....really?).I am all for having the biggest D-Line as possible with talent and flexibility. If you can be one of the best Teams in the NFL against the run, you can concentrate on the pass by design.

We have the chips to get this done. We have Teams like the Redskins and more who are desperate for Draft picks.

I think our back seven speed last year was an issue other than Mayo (and Butler in the sets he played). I think Guytons speed is wasted at ILB. AD with all of his presumed speed looked very slow last year...what happened there? Bodden is adequate, Wilhite has blazing straight line speed but in no way does it translate to the football field. Merriweather is mediocre and takes bad angles. McGown is about like Merriweather in speed and Sanders is extremely slow.

Vida makes a good point. Big plays are the result of bad tackling and lack of game speed. Other than VW who was doubled every game, our end play regressed with Warren having a bad year and Green was just bad. Burgess did not help at all and TBC was our real only pressure.

I would like to see a full rotation D-Line. I say we start by Drafting NT Cody at #22?...what!!!!!!??? As I have mentioned before in a very stout SEC conference, no running back went over a hundred yards when he was in the game.He is THE ONLY PLAYER in this NFL Draft that you have to game plan differently for. Wilfork played DE very well last year upon occasion.

Now I want to take pick #53 and AD (why would the Skins take him? He would be the only LB on their Team with 3-4 experience and could play opposite Orakpo and they can move their player in return) and Trade for Haynesworth and stick him at DE (Did you know at Tenn., Haynesworth ran a 4.82 40 and had a 39" vertical? Seymour was quick but ran a 4.9). Haynesworth was 317 them and high 340lbs now. Yes a few lbs lighter would be ideal but the motivation of both Seymour and Haynesworth have prevented them from pounding hard on the Hall of Fame doors. Harynesworth is still young (two years younger than Seymour). His contract works now. The Skins want a 2nd round pick. Swap #53 and AD for Haynesworth and their 4th (very early at #103 so at the end of the Third round almost).

Now you could have a line of Haynesworth at DE, Cody at NT and Wilfork at DE. Who does the opponent double team? Now you have a great rotation of Warren to work with Wilfork at NT and Haynesworth at DE.
If you notice we play some of the largest DEs of all 3-4 Teams other than the Ravens (and they can clog it up). This could then be the best 3-4 D-Line package in the NFL.

At #103 you can then have a shot at Spikes. He started this Draft season as a first rounder. He is your Ted Johnson SILB we have not had since TJ retired. Our middle run defense has now been upgraded.

If you remember Eugene Wilson was a CB conversion that gave us an athletic FS for our Super Bowl Teams. He was not my favorite but the NFL trend some six years later to go for this type of Safety. Akwasi Owus-Ansah of little Indiana PA could be a steal. "Scouts note his size, speed and hands on the corner and his versatility to return kicks. Owusu-Ansah lined up at safety quite often to take advantage of his centerfielder skills and could be used there in the NFL. Whether teams view him as a cornerback or safety, they'll value his skills. Defensive backs with size, speed, hands and return skills aren't easy to find." 4.32 speed and a 6.84 cone. He is 6' and 207lbs."With eight interceptions and 10 pass breakups in 2008, teams stayed away from Owusu-Ansah last fall".

He is rated somewhere around #70 with a bullet. He can be a Pats pick. He solves our return issues from last year as well.

Now we still have #44 and #47 and #119 before you get to, as one poster put it "the Hails Mary's" at the sixth and seventh (we have no fifth).

I swap #47 to the Eagles for their #70 and # 87 both in the third. It has been said the Eagles want to move back into the first. With three second rounders it would not be an issue. The Draft value chart is just about right if the Birds throw in a 6th at #200.

Use #44 for an outside rusher like Saap or Hughes. Take #70 and Draft Gerhart for a long term solution at RB and at #85 you can go for Ansah or perhaps a Eric Decker who is steal there and a big time future playmaker (McClusker?).

I am not done. "Waste not Want not". I have mentioned this before as well. It has appeared on the Bears site that TE Greg Olsen is still a candidate to be moved. He is young, talented with 70 receptions. They have made mention they want a vet Safety for their Team in 2010 and I have even seen Sanders name mentioned. I say we can work a Trade with the Bears and get a move TE and we have solved the blocking TE part. As you all know I would not shed a tear, but seriously it would work for both sides.We need a more athletic Safety and they need a stabilizing Safety. I will give James his due, He can be that for the Bears.

These are just IMO(DISCLAIMER) but it does respond to Vidas weaknesses and I would love watching that front seven in 2010.

DW Toys

im a fan of cody but we seen last year. that rookies have a hard time picking up BB's 2 gap 3-4 defense ron brace, at the start of that bills game was geting blown 10 yerds off the ball by just the center. and then when BB went to a 1 gap it took 3 guys to keep brace, out of the bills back field.


my point is i can't see any rookie comeing in here and have the same impact that wilfork will have at NT day one.
 
im a fan of cody but we seen last year. that rookies have a hard time picking up BB's 2 gap 3-4 defense ron brace, at the start of that bills game was geting blown 10 yerds off the ball by just the center. and then when BB went to a 1 gap it took 3 guys to keep brace, out of the bills back field.


my point is i can't see any rookie comeing in here and have the same impact that wilfork will have at NT day one.

Fair retort. But with Haynesworth, Wilfork and Warren in for most plays, he can learn. Maybe Brace is not the right fit and should be a 4-3 guy?
DW Toys
 
Right. This is a little bit like putting the card before the horse - using general team statistics to judge which player is causing the problem.

On the other hand, I think the stat about lack of big plays speaks volumes about the Pats. First, looking at the RBs, this was their output of 20+ plays last year:

Maroney - 2
Taylor - 0
Law Firm - 1
Morris - 2
Faulk - 3

So that's a total of 8 big plays in 16 games. What's more, 3 of those big plays came in the 1 blowout of Tennessee. By contrast, Maroney had at least 8 big plays by himself in 2006 when he was first drafted. Ironically, the Pats have not drafted a RB since then - one of only 2 or 3 teams that have not drafted one since 2006. So a big play RB is a major need - right up there with pass rushing OLB. Which why I'd love to get Jahvid Best here.

The other telling part of that is the downward slide of Randy Moss as a deep threat. In 2009, Randy only caught 7 passes that were in the air for 20+ yards. In 2008, with Cassell as QB, he caught 6. In 2007, he caught 14.

Lack of big plays had more to do with Brady. The number would have been 3 to 4 times the number with Brady 2007. Hopefully, this year and full recuperation fixes that.

Also, way the blatant refusal to accept the defense was young? Guyton was a second year player. Mckenzie will be in the mix this year.

I guess it's easy to forget the late 1990's and the core players during the dynasty years.
 
Haynesworth ran a 4.82 40

2010: $3.6 million (+ $21 million guaranteed option bonus due 4/1)

they are going to trade him after paying him 21m?

eom
 
The most perfect Seymour replacement in years is only a trade away in Suh. I would offer the Rams #22, #44 and next year's #1 for this year's #1. Kraft and his tight wallet may cringe, but hey, great players do not come along often.
Ochmed - You are better than this. You know damn well that the VALUE of picks isn't controlled by Kraft, but by BB.. And BB would look you right in the face and tell you that Suh isn't worth 3 potential starters
 
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