Jarron Gilbert as a possible replacement for Seymour next year?

[mgteich]

After we pay $100M for Seymour, $100M for Wilfork, match the RFA deals offered to Hobbs and Mankins, how much do you expect that Kraft will be willing to spend on Jarvis Green?

We shouldn't wait until just before the 2010 draft to find out whether we will need to find a rookie starter or a rookie replacement for Green's production. DE's take training in the 3-4. The time is now.

I must admit I have never really talked about Gilbert (other then me trying to do the pool stunt myself:nono as I hope we can get Seymour signed even it it is an expensive contract. He has totally grown up in our system and is almost like Willie in that way. To get rid of a Pro Bowl DE in a 3-4 system should not be considered until he turns 35 ala Bruce Smith. I think Seymour is the best 3-4 DE since Smith and that his understands BB complex scheme and can executed it is to valuable to let go IMO.

Gilbert I like but I think that I made my case on where we should go with our DE for the future. We signed AD to a big contract and Sey is about the same age and is familiar with the system. I think we put of DE early in the draft for 2010 when we know better if we need a DT (Wilfork leaving) or DE (Seymour leaving). I think on day two I like Baker, Hampton inside with the ability to play DE in 3-4 and Kyle Moore, USC or Matt Shaughnessy, Wisconsin this year and move DL's draft priority up in 2010.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I project the Pats taking Barwin-Gilbert with their first 2 picks. Let's see how it shakes out 2 weeks from now.

 

[supafly]

After we pay $100M for Seymour, $100M for Wilfork, match the RFA deals offered to Hobbs and Mankins, how much do you expect that Kraft will be willing to spend on Jarvis Green?

We shouldn't wait until just before the 2010 draft to find out whether we will need to find a rookie starter or a rookie replacement for Green's production. DE's take training in the 3-4. The time is now.

I am sure you are being sarcastic about your 100 million projections for these 2 players.

I see Wilfork costing about 8 mill /per based on a slight increase from Jenkins, Rodgers, Stroud, etc, other DT somewhat comparable to him. I think he wants to be paid quite fair but not ridiculous, which would put him ahead of these players. Even if you gave him approx. 50 million over 6 years, that would be 8.5 mill /per.

And I see Seymour getting somewhat of an increase, but near what he's making now, a bit more due to several yrs passing, player inflation, etc--which would put him somewhere around 10-11 mill /per. Considering Haynesworth is making about 12-13 (depending on how you view the deal), I don't see how Seymour couldn't be happy with that. Once again, even if you're giving up 50 million, you're still getting around 5 years from him too.

So, basically you could get both for your said total of 100 million. You may have been being sarcastic, but I couldn't tell if you were or not. I think your point was that we'll probably lose Jarvis Green, and I feel that is probable.

I also agree that the time is now to start grooming a viable backup option, because we certainly need one no matter what. Even if you somehow keep all 3 of those players, which is extremely doubtful--you can get better positional competition at backup, which is good at any position, and will be the primary focus of this particular draft, since there aren't many spots to be had on the roster. This is what happened in '07, when everyone considered (including myself) that yrs draft to be somewhat of a bust. As you can tell by the record we had, it wasn't. It served it's purpose for the most part, as the best possible players stayed in all positions that yr, and we were also good at many positions the next yr too. Our problems last yr didn't come from bad drafting or positional downgrades, it came mostly from injuries.

 

[mayoclinic]

I project the Pats taking Barwin-Gilbert with their first 2 picks. Let's see how it shakes out 2 weeks from now.

I project that too, unless William Beatty is available at 34.

 

[WhiZa]

Gilbert is still too small to play DE on a Pats 3-4. Seymour has 20+ pounds on the guy so I dont think they are comparable. Gilbert would get man handled in a 3-4. He is more like Green, who is smaller but can get to the QB on passing downs

 

[mgteich]

1) We agree that we need a DE.

2) The $100M was the number Haynworth's agent was throwing around. Obviously, it was overstated. However, both Wilfork and Seymour likely believe that they should be paid as much as any DL in the league. I agree with Wilfork; I suspect that Belichick does also. My GUESS is that we won't pay Seymour that kind of money. However, we may be able to keep Seymour.

I am sure you are being sarcastic about your 100 million projections for these 2 players.

I see Wilfork costing about 8 mill /per based on a slight increase from Jenkins, Rodgers, Stroud, etc, other DT somewhat comparable to him. I think he wants to be paid quite fair but not ridiculous, which would put him ahead of these players. Even if you gave him approx. 50 million over 6 years, that would be 8.5 mill /per.

And I see Seymour getting somewhat of an increase, but near what he's making now, a bit more due to several yrs passing, player inflation, etc--which would put him somewhere around 10-11 mill /per. Considering Haynesworth is making about 12-13 (depending on how you view the deal), I don't see how Seymour couldn't be happy with that. Once again, even if you're giving up 50 million, you're still getting around 5 years from him too.

So, basically you could get both for your said total of 100 million. You may have been being sarcastic, but I couldn't tell if you were or not. I think your point was that we'll probably lose Jarvis Green, and I feel that is probable.

I also agree that the time is now to start grooming a viable backup option, because we certainly need one no matter what. Even if you somehow keep all 3 of those players, which is extremely doubtful--you can get better positional competition at backup, which is good at any position, and will be the primary focus of this particular draft, since there aren't many spots to be had on the roster. This is what happened in '07, when everyone considered (including myself) that yrs draft to be somewhat of a bust. As you can tell by the record we had, it wasn't. It served it's purpose for the most part, as the best possible players stayed in all positions that yr, and we were also good at many positions the next yr too. Our problems last yr didn't come from bad drafting or positional downgrades, it came mostly from injuries.

 

[mayoclinic]

Gilbert is still too small to play DE on a Pats 3-4. Seymour has 20+ pounds on the guy so I dont think they are comparable. Gilbert would get man handled in a 3-4. He is more like Green, who is smaller but can get to the QB on passing downs

Gilbert is 287 lbs. at 6'5" with a big frame that can easily add weight. He's only about 8 lbs. lighter than Tyson Jackson right now. I don't think he would have much difficult getting above 300 lbs. He's much bigger than Jarvis Green.

 

[patchick]

Gilbert is 287 lbs. at 6'5" with a big frame that can easily add weight. He's only about 8 lbs. lighter than Tyson Jackson right now. I don't think he would have much difficult getting above 300 lbs. He's much bigger than Jarvis Green.

Agreed. Combine numbers for comparison:

Gilbert 6'5.2" 288
Jackson 6'4.1" 296
Green 6'3.1 271

Gilbert also has a massive wingspan (35 5/8) and huge hands. He's a big, big man who can handle some more weight. He's not Seymour-sized (who is?), but closer than most.

As for how I rate Tyson Jackson, he's been slowly but steadily dropping in my esteem. I had hoped he'd come out last year, but his senior season was disappointing, showing no real development. And the closer I look the less I'm impressed by his instincts, aggressiveness and impact on the field. Gilbert, in contrast, improved by leaps and bounds each year after converting from offense. So Gilbert's my top DE prospect.

 

[Seneschal2]

Gilbert is still too small to play DE on a Pats 3-4. Seymour has 20+ pounds on the guy so I dont think they are comparable. Gilbert would get man handled in a 3-4. He is more like Green, who is smaller but can get to the QB on passing downs

How quickly we forget.

Anthony Pleasant - Official New England Patriots Biography and Bobby Hamilton - Official New England Patriots Biography were both listed as 6-5 280. I actually thought they were 285, which is why I checked it out. Of course they were both veteran players who were familiar with the Pats D before they were brought on board.

Jarvis Green at 271 was seriously undersized -- but here's the scoop on him being drafted:

He was a Saban-coached player, which means he came from a similar stle D as the Pats. In addition, Saban highly recommended him to BB as someone who reminded him of Pleasant -- whom Saban coached at Cleveland when Saban was BB's DC.

Gilbert's film will show his abilities of playing D for the Pats. The weight concern is a non-issue as his frame can handle more (only if needed).

 

[Revman]

I agree the time is now to make a selection -I want Evander Hood-DL-Miisouri. Gilbert at 23 is early. Hood is much more ready to contribute in a variety of ways.

 

[Revman]

I think Seymour will play his last year for Patriots. The age-contract size-probably to much to ask Pat's to pay for his services next year. We will resign Wilfork whom is better than any rookie could be. Wilfork has not yet had his best season. Add Evander Hood to learn this season. His versatility will be intriguing tp Belicheck.

 

[patchick]

Add Evander Hood to learn this season. His versatility will be intriguing tp Belicheck.

I like Hood very much and I think he could play DE in the Pats' scheme, but I'm not convinced he should. At 6'3.1" and 33 1/4" arms he gives up a ton of length to Gilbert, and is somewhat less explosive. So I see Gilbert as the better fit with bigger upside.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

After we pay $100M for Seymour, $100M for Wilfork, match the RFA deals offered to Hobbs and Mankins, how much do you expect that Kraft will be willing to spend on Jarvis Green?

We shouldn't wait until just before the 2010 draft to find out whether we will need to find a rookie starter or a rookie replacement for Green's production. DE's take training in the 3-4. The time is now.

I am pretty sure you numbers are a little high, but not too far off I bet In an uncapped year I know that the big money would be paid out for both of these players. They are too key to the defense and I do not agree it is time to get rid of either of them.

Green is the oldest of the bunch so I see him being moved or let go and if someone on the D-Line is going to be replaced it would be Green and Smith. We have Warren signed through 2011 and both Wilfork and Seymour through this season and Wright resigned as well. What I see happening depending on the CBA is we resign Wilfork to a long term deal and Franchise Seymour for a year or two. But you and I agree we need to find a replacement for Green.

Wilfork's contract could be more back loaded and cap friendly while Seymour is Franchised. That would give us our starting three DL in our 3-4 system in place until 2011. We are built to win SB's right now and while TB is in his prime so as I said before I would like BB to try to keep all three at least until 2011.

If we could have our starting three linemen in place then I would look for Day two options at D-Line. It all has to do on what BB is going to do with Sey and Wilfork and only he knows that. I do agree about not waiting until it is a desperate need for us but as I have out lined above I hope to have Seymour around for a couple more years.

I would target D-Line day two this year and depending on what happens with the D-Line, I know it will be a priority on day one next season. All of our D-Line are in the prime of their careers right now IMO.

As far as Hobbs or Mankins I think that OG and Corner will be addressed in this draft as well but for 2009 not a pressing need. OLB and Safety are another story but I could see us picking either a D-Line, Guard or Corner on day one but it is fun to guess

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

I like Hood very much and I think he could play DE in the Pats' scheme, but I'm not convinced he should. At 6'3.1" and 33 1/4" arms he gives up a ton of length to Gilbert, and is somewhat less explosive. So I see Gilbert as the better fit with bigger upside.

I have to agree our current end are 6'5" Warren and 6'6" Seymour and both have long arms. I think Ziggy would be best playing in a 4-3 in a three technique. He does have power and explosion to blow by guards but I really have not seen good gap control on the run. Watching his senior bowl his one on ones were awesome but when they got into the scrimmage he would penetrate to quick and run by the ball. He would use his spin move too many times on run plays where at that level the play is gone by the time you spin back. I found he let a lot of Lineman get to the LB too often then he would miss the play in the backfield. This gap discipline is what would worry me about him playing a 5 tech in our defense. While he does make plays in the passing game and will penetrate the right gap and blow up the RB in the backfield but I think he is made for another scheme but that is just my opinion.

I think if a 4-3 like Arizona gets this kid he could be like their Darnell Docket where he could go at nose when they go nickle and a three man front. His quickness in combo with the blitz schemes possible, I think would make this kid too valuable to teams like Indy, Bills, Titans, Bengals ect. I think he will be a good NFLer but in a 4-3.

 

[WhiZa]

How quickly we forget.

Anthony Pleasant - Official New England Patriots Biography and Bobby Hamilton - Official New England Patriots Biography were both listed as 6-5 280. I actually thought they were 285, which is why I checked it out. Of course they were both veteran players who were familiar with the Pats D before they were brought on board.

Jarvis Green at 271 was seriously undersized -- but here's the scoop on him being drafted:

He was a Saban-coached player, which means he came from a similar stle D as the Pats. In addition, Saban highly recommended him to BB as someone who reminded him of Pleasant -- whom Saban coached at Cleveland when Saban was BB's DC.

Gilbert's film will show his abilities of playing D for the Pats. The weight concern is a non-issue as his frame can handle more (only if needed).

Plesant and Hamilton also didn't last long in BB's evolving 3-4. As far as gaining weight, I'm sure he can do it. You can't expect him to be the same player after gaining 10-20 pounds though.

 

[The Coon]

Gilbert over Hood any day of the week!

The physical size fits exactly what the pats look for in their 3-4 DEs and with Seymour and Greens long term future uncertain this pick would make sense

 

[dryheat44]

Assuming we're heading into an uncapped year, and that the Patriots make the AFC Championship game (which of course is not assured), I could see the Patriots letting Seymour walk if there's an unrestricted free agent that Belichick would like to sign.

(Still not 100% on free agency rules, but I believe a big contract has to leave UFA before one can be signed)

Of course, with an additional transition tag to use, there might not be a UFA worth signing to a big contract.

It is likely that Belichick doesn't see Seymour's value moving forward as being nearly as high as Big Rich does. A Samuel-type deal could work also, franchising him for one year with a promise not to do it again....assuming Wilfork has been signed to a new contract.

 

[bagwell368]

Gilbert is still too small to play DE on a Pats 3-4. Seymour has 20+ pounds on the guy so I dont think they are comparable. Gilbert would get man handled in a 3-4. He is more like Green, who is smaller but can get to the QB on passing downs

Gilbert can easily stack 20 lbs on his frame. In a year with few pressing needs (LB (2nd via FA), S), and lots of picks in a deep draft, the time is now to get a jump on positions of need next year: DL (at least one, if not two), OT (good ones all the way to #124), OG (same). Next year they can focus on a TE, WR, RB, CB which will also be needs, and all but TE will be fairly easy to score. Don't forget we'll be drafting #32, #64, #96 next year plus a few trade aheads.

If my trades got done (all picks pass draft calc):

#23 and #58 to the Cardinals for #31 #63 and #95

#89 (3a) and #95 (3b) #124 (4) to the Vikings for #54

#31 and #63 and #199 to the Browns for #36 and #50 which would avoid 1st round contract issues, and give even a better spread through the heart of this draft:

34, 36, 47, 50, 54, 97c, 170c, 207c, 234

34: Gilbert (anyone thinks he lasts to 47 isn't paying attention)
36: Smith (S/CB/Nickel - BB can't resist the limitless potential)
47: Sintim (ILB or OLB) - knows the system, not a star, but can play
50: Meredith (athletic tackle) RT this year, LT next year
54: Pat White - WR - BB cannot resist
97: Kropog, Levitre, Lang - RG (whoever is there in that order - only Levitre played G, the others were T's)
170: Antone Smith RB (Faulk understudy?)
207: Vaughn Martin NT (raw, but physically gifted, 2-3 years away)
234: out to '10

 

[dryheat44]

34: Gilbert (anyone thinks he lasts to 47 isn't paying attention)
36: Smith (S/CB/Nickel - BB can't resist the limitless potential)
47: Sintim (ILB or OLB) - knows the system, not a star, but can play
50: Meredith (athletic tackle) RT this year, LT next year
54: Pat White - WR - BB cannot resist
97: Kropog, Levitre, Lang - RG (whoever is there in that order - only Levitre played G, the others were T's)
170: Antone Smith RB (Faulk understudy?)
207: Vaughn Martin NT (raw, but physically gifted, 2-3 years away)
234: out to '10

I don't see a huge trade demand for the #234 pick in the draft. Might as well keep it for a punter, special teams player, or swing for the fences on a kid who's been injured or in trouble or plays basketball or whatever.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't see a huge trade demand for the #234 pick in the draft.

Unless we can trade #234 for a 2010 1st, I'd agree with you.

Actually, I could see value at 234. I've seen Brian Hoyer and Devin Moore going later than that in some mocks, for example, or a punter. But agree, there's little trade value.