It's All About the Turnovers

[Urgent]

Quick look at some stats for the Patriots, per the Globe today:

Stat ......... NE - Opponent

1st down/rush . 59 - 60
1st down/pass . 110 - 119
1st down/pen ... 22 - 10
1st down/total . 191 - 189

Rush yds ...... 1162 - 1154
Pass yds ...... 2088 - 2095
Total yds ...... 3250 - 3249
Yds/game ........ 361 - 361

Total plays .... 633 - 643
Avg yds/play ... 5.1 - 5.1

QB Performance
Att .......... 340 - 343
Comp ....... 194 - 190
TD ............. 13 - 13

Def Sacks .. 29 - 26

INT ........... 6 - 12
Fum lost .... 4 - 7

Turnover ...+9 - -9

The Patriots are #3 in the league with a +9 turnover number.
#1 in the league? Kansas City with +15.

Look at the numbers above and try to make an argument that you are looking at a 7-2 team.
First downs are the same, total yardage is the same, plays per game is the same, QB performance is the same.
The one number that defines this as a 7-2, not a 5-4, team is the turnover results.

Scary stat? Denver is -2. They are winning without this.

 

[Ring 6]

Quick look at some stats for the Patriots, per the Globe today:

Stat ......... NE - Opponent

1st down/rush . 59 - 60
1st down/pass . 110 - 119
1st down/pen ... 22 - 10
1st down/total . 191 - 189

Rush yds ...... 1162 - 1154
Pass yds ...... 2088 - 2095
Total yds ...... 3250 - 3249
Yds/game ........ 361 - 361

Total plays .... 633 - 643
Avg yds/play ... 5.1 - 5.1

QB Performance
Att .......... 340 - 343
Comp ....... 194 - 190
TD ............. 13 - 13

Def Sacks .. 29 - 26

INT ........... 6 - 12
Fum lost .... 4 - 7

Turnover ...+9 - -9

The Patriots are #3 in the league with a +9 turnover number.
#1 in the league? Kansas City with +15.

Look at the numbers above and try to make an argument that you are looking at a 7-2 team.
First downs are the same, total yardage is the same, plays per game is the same, QB performance is the same.
The one number that defines this as a 7-2, not a 5-4, team is the turnover results.

Scary stat? Denver is -2. They are winning without this.

It would be awesome if some industrious poster would be willing to do the work to tally the Patriots record under BB broken down by turnover margin. Even better, to also break down by # of turnovers, and by # of takeaways.

BTW, if you are saying they are 5-4 without turnover differential which 2 wins are you calling losses?

 

[patchick]

The turnover numbers aren't chance. The Patriots are right up near the top of the league in turnover ratio year after year, even when their defense is otherwise suspect. Creating turnovers and protecting the ball are core parts of the team's approach.

Over the past three seasons before the numbers you cited, the Patriots were +70 in turnovers. Green Bay is 2nd in the league at +41. In the AFC, Baltimore is 2nd with +18.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Since the start of the 2001 season, the Pats have the second-most takeaways (only Chicago has more), and have the fewest turnovers.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

It would be awesome if some industrious poster would be willing to do the work to tally the Patriots record under BB broken down by turnover margin. Even better, to also break down by # of turnovers, and by # of takeaways.

Since 2001:
TO margin -- W/L record
+4 or better: 22–0 [No other team has more than 16 games.]
+3: 15–0 [Second only to Saints' 16–0.]
+2: 29–1 [Second only to Colts' 34–1.]
+1: 42–5
Even: 20–11
–1: 18–6 [The next best team is Pittsburgh, at 18–16–1(!).]
–2: 5–14 [Fourth-best, behind IND, PHI, and BAL.]
–3 or worse: 2–11 [Only ATL has fewer –3 or worse games.]

One last fun fact: since the start of the 2007 season, the Pats have 67 regular season games with a positive TO margin. No other team has more than 57.

 

[Ring 6]

Since 2001:
TO margin -- W/L record
+4 or better: 22–0 [No other team has more than 16 games.]
+3: 15–0 [Second only to Saints' 16–0.]
+2: 29–1 [Second only to Colts' 34–1.]
+1: 42–5
Even: 20–11
–1: 18–6 [The next best team is Pittsburgh, at 18–16–1(!).]
–2: 5–14 [Fourth-best, behind IND, PHI, and BAL.]
–3 or worse: 2–11 [Only ATL has fewer –3 or worse games.]

One last fun fact: since the start of the 2007 season, the Pats have 67 regular season games with a positive TO margin. No other team has more than 57.

Nice work. Thanks.
So even -1 or better the Patriots are 119-23 and they are -1 or better in 82% of their games.

 

[Sciz]

Even: 20–11
–1: 18–6

This is the one that fascinates me. Belichick has been better at -1 than 0. Sample size error, I guess.

 

[sb1]

It would be awesome if some industrious poster would be willing to do the work to tally the Patriots record under BB broken down by turnover margin. Even better, to also break down by # of turnovers, and by # of takeaways.

BTW, if you are saying they are 5-4 without turnover differential which 2 wins are you calling losses?

The play finder on PFR is awesome.

Pats have turned the ball over 301 times since the start of 2000.
163 by INT and 138 fumbles. Most of the turnovers were on 1st down.

On the flip side, the Pats have 429 takeaways in that timeframe.
262 INT, 167 fumbles. Most were also on 1st down.

That would be a +128 margin.

 

[BradyManny]

This is good stuff - but there is a downside to relying heavily on winning the TO margin in order to win games. 60 minutes is a small sample size, so when you get into the playoffs, there's no guarantee you can create turnovers at the same clip. Our defense in 2010 or 2011, for example, was pretty awful but made up for it by causing turnovers at a good rate. In SB46, or the AFCDG vs. the Jets the year before, when we didn't cause turnovers like we were used to, we lost. No coincidence. That certainly played a role in the outcome of those games.

This defense, when it had Talib early in the year, was not reliant on causing turnovers to be good. It was simply a good defense that caused turnovers. If we can be that, then that is better.

 

[Ring 6]

The play finder on PFR is awesome.

Pats have turned the ball over 301 times since the start of 2000.
163 by INT and 138 fumbles. Most of the turnovers were on 1st down.

On the flip side, the Pats have 429 takeaways in that timeframe.
262 INT, 167 fumbles. Most were also on 1st down.

That would be a +128 margin.

Pro Football Reference is the best. I could spend hours in that section.

 

[Ring 6]

This is good stuff - but there is a downside to relying heavily on winning the TO margin in order to win games. 60 minutes is a small sample size, so when you get into the playoffs, there's no guarantee you can create turnovers at the same clip. Our defense in 2010 or 2011, for example, was pretty awful but made up for it by causing turnovers at a good rate. In SB46, or the AFCDG vs. the Jets the year before, when we didn't cause turnovers like we were used to, we lost. No coincidence. That certainly played a role in the outcome of those games.

This defense, when it had Talib early in the year, was not reliant on causing turnovers to be good. It was simply a good defense that caused turnovers. If we can be that, then that is better.

But they aren't relying heavily on turnover margin to win.
The post above indicates they have an outstanding record compared to all other teams, in each category, ie they win more often than others when they lose the turnover battle as well.
Essentially, EVERY team relies on turnover margin to win, the Patriots simply succeed at it more often.

 

[Ring 6]

This is good stuff - but there is a downside to relying heavily on winning the TO margin in order to win games. 60 minutes is a small sample size, so when you get into the playoffs, there's no guarantee you can create turnovers at the same clip. Our defense in 2010 or 2011, for example, was pretty awful but made up for it by causing turnovers at a good rate. In SB46, or the AFCDG vs. the Jets the year before, when we didn't cause turnovers like we were used to, we lost. No coincidence. That certainly played a role in the outcome of those games.

This defense, when it had Talib early in the year, was not reliant on causing turnovers to be good. It was simply a good defense that caused turnovers. If we can be that, then that is better.

Also your implication is that a defense should be good, and carry you to wins vs good teams, without creating any takeaways, and I don't think such a one exists.

 

[SEA_Pat]

Pro Football Reference is the best. I could spend hours in that section.

I can't, so glad you guys do.

 

[BradyManny]

Also your implication is that a defense should be good, and carry you to wins vs good teams, without creating any takeaways, and I don't think such a one exists.

I don't mean to imply that at all. But this defense - early in the season, with Talib - was getting off the field and getting the ball back to the offense, something the 2010 & 2011 defenses were not capable of doing. Those defenses did need to cause turnovers to approach overall mediocrity, this defense (with a healthy Talib) does not. That is a preferable situation.

Essentially, if your defensive success can be attributed overwhelmingly to turnovers, and its failures attributed overwhelmingly to bad 3rd down defense, that is not a stable formula for success when 60 minutes becomes do or die.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Quick look at some stats for the Patriots, per the Globe today:

Looks like a bend but not break defense to me. What happened to the points stats (which are arguably the most important)?

And the bend do not break defenses rely (to some extent) on turnovers. That's why bend but don't break can be an effective (yet often frustrating to watch) strategy.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

Just to beat the "pound the rock" drum... There does seem to be a correlation between wins and rushing yardage margins

Team Game Finder Query Results - Pro-Football-Reference.com

While there's always the argument of causation (does running cause wins or vice versa or is it simply correlation), in the 2nd in week 7 where the Pats seemed to have control of the game they got off 14 plays (excluding 5 from the final minute) and 5 were rushes.

Game Play Finder & Super Bowl Play Finder - Pro-Football-Reference.com

The Jets ran 17 plays and 9 of them were rushes.

Game Play Finder & Super Bowl Play Finder - Pro-Football-Reference.com

During the first half of the Bengals game when the game was anyone's the Pats ran 34 plays and 12 were rushes.

Game Play Finder & Super Bowl Play Finder - Pro-Football-Reference.com

The Bengals ran 31 plays and 17 were rushes.

Game Play Finder & Super Bowl Play Finder - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Taking the more macro look in games which the Pats won they had a 56/44 pass/run ratio when the score differential was between -3 and 7.

Game Play Finder & Super Bowl Play Finder - Pro-Football-Reference.com

And that ratio was 68/32 in the losses.

Game Play Finder & Super Bowl Play Finder - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Their opponents had a 41/59 and 57/43 ratio respectively

Game Play Finder & Super Bowl Play Finder - Pro-Football-Reference.com
Game Play Finder & Super Bowl Play Finder - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Okay I'm done creating meaningless numbers.

 

[ivanvamp]

Since the start of the 2001 season, Pats' turnover +/- per game:

- Regular Season: +0.69
- Playoff Wins: +1.24 (+0.55 vs. Regular Season)
- Playoff Losses: -0.71 (-1.40 vs. Regular Season)

Takeaways Per Game:

- Regular Season: 2.01
- Playoff Wins: 2.35 (+0.34 vs. Regular Season)
- Playoff Losses: 1.14 (-0.87 vs. Regular Season)

Giveaways Per Game:

- Regular Season: 1.32
- Playoff Wins: 1.12 (+0.20 vs. Regular Season)
- Playoff Losses: 1.86 (-0.54 vs. Regular Season)

Regular Season vs. All Playoff Games
- Takeaways: R - 2.01; P - 2.00
- Giveaways: R - 1.32; P - 1.33
- +/-: R - +1.24; P - +0.67

So we can see that turnovers in the playoffs have been a major reason why they've had less success than in the regular season. They have been one of the best teams in the NFL in terms of turnover differential the past number of years, but then in the playoffs one bad turnover game can really bite you hard.