Is the Rookie Wall Real?

[aluminum seats]

I was thinking about this last week—has nothing to do w/the stinker in Cleveland, plus it’s too early for the “rookie wall” to have been hit anyway.

But the Pats are relying on a few rookies this year, and I’m wondering what the perception is of the rookie wall—if there’s been any systematic study of it, or even good anecdotal evidence. Do any Patriots’ rookies in the past come to mind who were flourishing & then tailed off? Don’t know that I can think of any.

I researched the rookie wall a little bit (that is, googled) and came up mostly with articles that just discussed the fact that it SHOULD exist—after playing maybe 11-13 games in college, the rookies have training camp, the preseason, an 18-game regular season, etc. Conventional wisdom is that the wall hits around week 9 or so (mid/late Nov.).

One piece referenced Adrian Peterson’s rookie year. In his first eight weeks, he ran for 1,036 yards, had three 100-yard games two 200-yard games, 12 receptions for 206 yards and nine touchdowns. Then in the last eight weeks, he ran for 305 yards while playing in only six of the eight games, with seven receptions for 62 yards and four touchdowns. So, yeah. But that’s one guy, so essentially meaningless.

So is this a concern? Or is it a question of good coaching and/or training? Is the rookie wall real?

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Peterson, really? No mention of the fact he missed a few games to injury, and then opposing teams stacked the box against him and completely sold out against the run?

I'm not debating that rookies are going to become physically tired at some point, but I don't think it's as big of an issue as some make it out to be. Youthful bodies heal up. I just turned 23 a few days ago, so I'm the same age as many of the rookies this year. I'm absolutely convinced I could hold up over that long of a span if I had been playing football for a few years. I'm a highly active athlete, and when I'm careful about nutrition, rest, exercise, and mobility work (or tension farming!), then I can maintain the same level of performance year round, not simply from August - February (which is when we hope the Patriots season ends in triumph).

 

[aluminum seats]

Peterson, really? No mention of the fact he missed a few games to injury, and then opposing teams stacked the box against him and completely sold out against the run?

I'm not debating that rookies are going to become physically tired at some point, but I don't think it's as big of an issue as some make it out to be. Youthful bodies heal up. I just turned 23 a few days ago, so I'm the same age as many of the rookies this year. I'm absolutely convinced I could hold up over that long of a span if I had been playing football for a few years. I'm a highly active athlete, and when I'm careful about nutrition, rest, exercise, and mobility work (or tension farming!), then I can maintain the same level of performance year round, not simply from August - February (which is when we hope the Patriots season ends in triumph).

Well, on Peterson the guy referenced that he missed time--arguably an increased risk of injury would be part of it, but of course guys get hurt all the time. Point is there doesn't seem to be any real facts behind the theory, but it's brought up all the time.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The rookies have played 12 games to date (preseason counts), that's a full season and bowl game for most college programs. Cleveland may indeed have been part of the rookie wall, but I think it has the potential to be a catalyst for launching the kids head first into the second half of the season with some renewed energy. Think happy thoughts.

 

[aluminum seats]

For the record, I'm a little disappointed w/the board here. I don't expect a Sons of Sam Horn level of analysis, but the fact that a much-referred to phenonenom as the "rookie wall," particularly in a year in might affect the Pats, has drawn essentially zero interest. This while "Jets Suck" and similar pablum gets a hundred responses. Too bad.

 

[jmt57]

I think it stands to reason that the 'rookie wall' is real - though the effect surely varies from player to player.

Take football out of the equation for a second. I can train with long distance running daily, run in some ten mile races, etcetera - but no matter what it's not the same as running a marathon. All the preparation in the world will not prepare me as well as having actually run previous marathons.

So even though these guys are young and at or near the physical peak of their lives, it's going to be very difficult to compete at the same level as they will be able to do a year from now, after having actually experienced playing twenty games in a season.

Sorry for not commenting earlier. It's a great question but I just didn't think I had a very good answer for you.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

For the record, I'm a little disappointed w/the board here. I don't expect a Sons of Sam Horn level of analysis, but the fact that a much-referred to phenonenom as the "rookie wall," particularly in a year in might affect the Pats, has drawn essentially zero interest. This while "Jets Suck" and similar pablum gets a hundred responses. Too bad.

I think everyone's still on suicide watch after the Browns game. Plus there's less activity on the board during the week. But it's definitely something worth looking into and maybe something I'll dig into once work slows down a bit.

My minor contribution is that I expect some type of impact, but I'd expect it to be short-lived. I also anticipate that a lot of our rookies may not be impacted, as they simply do not play a lot of snaps. Guys like Spikes, Deaderick, and Fletcher are rotational players who aren't playing every single snap like they might have in college. I still expect the level of preparation mentally to wear on them a bit, but I'm not as worried about them as I am Cunningham and McCourty, who have logged a lot of snaps and figure to continue to do so.

 

[Brady2Welker]

For the record, I'm a little disappointed w/the board here. I don't expect a Sons of Sam Horn level of analysis, but the fact that a much-referred to phenonenom as the "rookie wall," particularly in a year in might affect the Pats, has drawn essentially zero interest. This while "Jets Suck" and similar pablum gets a hundred responses. Too bad.

I tend to avoid the forums unless my other option is studying (I love me some procrastinating) before weds rolls around. Too much crying about failures on the team, and too much praising of the success. I think others do the same.


Honestly, to respond to your question, I believe the rookie wall is self inflicted, if it happens. If the player is conscious of the amount of dedication it takes, and continues that level of preparation they won't be caught off guard by the length/intensity of the pro season. For example, I was initially more concerned with Herandez hitting the wall than McCourty because of the supposed character concerns with McC, because McC was being relentlessly praised for his focus and study of the game as well as physical preparation which will mitigate, if not fully nullify the rookie wall for him. Where as Hernandez had supposed character issues. That said, I believe I was wrong on that assumption because Hernandez seems to come ready to play each week thus far, which is evident by the amount of love Brady has been giving him.

 

[dhamz]

Yes the rookie wall is real. From Mike Reiss mailbag this week:

New England Patriots Mailbag: Will loss to the Cleveland Browns come back to bite Patriots? - ESPN Boston

Q. Hi Mike, the rookies are developing pretty well through these first 8 weeks, which is encouraging. But how will it affect the team down the stretch, when they all hit that "rookie wall"? I don't think many rookies manage to avoid that happening, do they? -- Karen (East Lansing, Mich.)



A. Karen, this is an insightful thought and one that Tedy Bruschi touched on as part of last week's "Bruschi's Breakdown" piece. Here is what he said: "They will. I did as a rookie. Week 10 was when I said to myself, 'Man, we've still got six weeks to go.' Having said that, it didn't alter my preparation. Bill Parcells was the head coach, and there was no way I was going to let him or the team down. Bill Belichick is the head coach now, and he knows these rookies will start to feel it and will sharpen their focus. Fighting that rookie wall is part of the process of turning yourself into a professional football player. I don't anticipate it being a problem."

 

[WinstonSmith]

This article found performance drops for rookies between weeks 4 - 6 and 8 - 11. Interestingly vets had a similar drop between weeks 12 - 14. The good news is that the rooks make a nice recovery through weeks 12 and 13 and then level off, so although there is a wall it's not like falling off a cliff.

Fantasy Football Sharks - Lab Test: The Rookie Wall

Hitting The Wall

Now I love debunking football myths like Jerry Jones loves hiring thugs (wagga, wagga, wagga), but The Rookie Wall seems to be real. In fact, there seems to be more than one wall! As a group, these rookies got hot early, then plummeted between W eeks 4 and 6. They worked their way back up, but fell again between Weeks 8 and 11. They went on to finish strong, in some cases stronger than they started. Out of the playoffs? -- Send in the rookies!

This is more than just the byes. We’re looking at a group average, with byes evenly distributed. There are also some rookies who don’t play much in the first few games, but even after excluding these, we see the same trend. There may be something to said about schedule, but like the byes, tough matchups over our group should be evenly distributed.

Veterans also seem to hit their own wall. Our veterans steadily worked their way up, peaked in mid-season, then bottomed out, below where they started, between Weeks 12 and 14. Like the rookies, they finished the season fairly strong. This trend was visible in the full group and in a random selection the same size of our rookie group.

Before moving on to what you might do about it, the chart below illustrates these trends as weekly averages (thin lines) and three-week moving averages (thick lines).

 

[IllegalContact]

the only ones who could be hitting a wall are hernandez,mccourty and spikes

cunningham and deaderick did not get much playing time early in the season, and gronkowski has not been a consistent presence.

last weeks game had nothing to do with a rookie wall. gronkowski's mistake at the goalline had more to do with the success he had dragging james laurinaitis into the endzone in preseason. a good lesson for him as I believe he will go down sooner next time

 

[aluminum seats]

Some excellent comments here. My takeaway is that, generally speaking, the rookie wall theory is probably overstated for most players. Not that they don't max out at certain points and feel varying levels of exhaustion, but that the on-the-field results are usually not particularly evident.

This should particularly be the case if the guy isn't on the field all the time. Also, the wall effect seems to hit skill players more than others, especially RBs.

So, you'd think the Pats' rooks should be OK, although it might be a good idea to limit Hernadez just a bit, considering he's playing so much and he's really young.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

One other thing to consider is the rate of improvement from rookies. For most rookies, they're still learning the system and thinking instead of reacting. If the light comes on during their rookie season and they "get" it, the huge growth would offset most of the disadvantages associated with a rookie wall. Peyton Manning's first 8 games vs. his last 8 games were quite different, he was literally two different players, and it carried over into year 2.

 

[aluminum seats]

One other thing to consider is the rate of improvement from rookies. For most rookies, they're still learning the system and thinking instead of reacting. If the light comes on during their rookie season and they "get" it, the huge growth would offset most of the disadvantages associated with a rookie wall. Peyton Manning's first 8 games vs. his last 8 games were quite different, he was literally two different players, and it carried over into year 2.

That's a good point.

I wonder if a guy like Gronk might be a candidate for coming on strong in the second half. He hasn't been used as much as many might have hoped, and his miscues in Cleveland might serve as a springboard for him to be even more motivated the rest of the way.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The wall is as much mental as physical though, and here that is even more evident than in some systems.

 

[aluminum seats]

The wall is as much mental as physical though, and here that is even more evident than in some systems.

Two ways to look at that: the overall grind of the season is mentally draining, in which case good coaching could help mitigate it. Or do you mean the pressures mentally of absorbing a pro gameplan--in that case, I think it wouldn't be so much a "wall" as something that could confound some guys right away.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Two ways to look at that: the overall grind of the season is mentally draining, in which case good coaching could help mitigate it. Or do you mean the pressures mentally of absorbing a pro gameplan--in that case, I think it wouldn't be so much a "wall" as something that could confound some guys right away.

It can be a wall or a confound. In college these kids have limited exposure to coaching and film work and meetings and opponent specific game planning. In and out of season. The NFL is a full time job. To excel at it you need to possess either all world talent or incredible drive and discipline. You go from 20 hours a week in season and relying largely on your talent vs. lots of guys who have less to 60+ hours a week in season and more than 20 hours a week in your brief off season just to keep pace with the talent and coaching level the pros put you in competition with.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

That's a good point.

I wonder if a guy like Gronk might be a candidate for coming on strong in the second half. He hasn't been used as much as many might have hoped, and his miscues in Cleveland might serve as a springboard for him to be even more motivated the rest of the way.

I sure hope so. I think Gronk's got a ton of potential, and we could certainly use him. But some rookies just don't get it until year 2. Chung was like that. He needed the off-season to really get comfortable. And some guys just never get it (Chad Jackson). I think having Alge as a mentor is probably the best thing we could do for Gronk though, and I think he has that potential to be a big part of our second half.

It can be a wall or a confound. In college these kids have limited exposure to coaching and film work and meetings and opponent specific game planning. In and out of season. The NFL is a full time job. To excel at it you need to possess either all world talent or incredible drive and discipline. You go from 20 hours a week in season and relying largely on your talent vs. lots of guys who have less to 60+ hours a week in season and more than 20 hours a week in your brief off season just to keep pace with the talent and coaching level the pros put you in competition with.

Totally agree. Lots of these rookies are also used to being the biggest and fastest guys in college, and so they got lazy with film work. Now they must learn to rely on it because they can't just outrun guys or toss them aside easily anymore.