Is BB betting that the NFL season will not finish due to COVID 19?

[Kontradiction]

I highly doubt he’s throwing the season, unfortunately. This would definitely be the year to do it. But signing Cam in the first place indicates that he’s planning to try and actually compete. The roster says we may win the division at the most, but I don’t think we’re getting past the upper echelon in the AFC. Even if Cam actually stays healthy, which is also no given in and of itself. The opt outs will loom large and there wasn’t an over abundance of talent on the offensive side of the ball in the first place.

 

[PatsBoy12]

He's in rebuild mode. There really wasn't much out there when money freed up.

 

[scott99]

I always think Belichick is playing for the current season, tanking is not in his vocabulary, future is not in his vocabulary. Losing players in free agency, and not having cap space during the major parts of free agency is the reason no big ticket signings happened. Also, let's not forget, NOBODY is trying to help the Patriots, so if there were any trading partners out there (as far as WRs). I'm sure they were trying to rip off the Pats. I think this is a very young roster in some spots, due to some key picks the last 2 years, now it's up to Belichick to coach them up, and time will tell if they will produce. I think Cam will help this offense, because he's a threat to run, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the RPO in our offense. Plus, you don't have that Brady/favorites factor, Cam is just gonna sling it. Not saying he's gonna be better than Brady (even last year's Brady), just saying we may see more players involved on a consistent basis.

 

[upstater1]

Belichick tries to win every year. So it's not tanking.

But he knew even last year the cap was screwed this year due to Kraft making him cut Antonio Brown. And other reasons. So he's making the best of the situation.

.

Kraft made the best decision anyone could have possibly made.

Imagine keeping Brown on given his extended suspension from the NFL.

 

[BTTA]

1) Are you suggesting that we will get LESS production at TE than in 2019

No, but not a lot more productive, either, just based on rookie production over the years. Hope to be wrong.

 

[sb1]

Don't know why people still entertain the idea that Belichick or any other NFL coach would deliberately tank a season. It just doesn't happen, and no the Colts didn't do it either.

There is zero benefit to the "tankers" to do such a thing.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I don't think BB would ever tank. Not in his DNA.
He'd have let this be a learning year for Stidham if he was doing that and wouldn't have brought Cam in.
@stinkypete pointed out above that they have over $23MM of dead money including $13.5 from Brady.
Not even BB has control over COVID.

 

[Nehalem]

The roster he has built is truly puzzling. I certainly do not believe he would tank. However, WR, DT, DE, LB and TE groups are extremely surprising to me. Does not feel like he is going all in, more like he is building for 2021.

How can you have a group of WR's who other than Edelman no one has more than 50 career catches. Does that make any sense at all? No run stuffing DT, when there were decent options available. The whole kicker fiasco.

So far the COVID 19 poisoned rate in NFL has been incredibly low, but when travel and games start up beginning this week, perhaps BB does not have confidence that the NFL will make it through the full season? That would explain why he is sitting on all the cap money and has not gone all in with trying to build a team for THIS year with more potential to compete?

The other possibility is he may not truly believe they can compete for a SB this year, so why spend $$, better to wait when they are further along in rebuild process.

I see 3 problems with your analysis
(1) You are basically assuming that everyone at a position of weakness plays to their floor.
(2) The Patriots didn't had little cap space for most of the year. Its only after players started opting out and they cut Sanu that they had cap space.
(3) There is a middle ground between tanking and go all in on the 2020 season. The Patriots lacked the cap space, and franchise QB, to go all in on 2020. And given the COVID-19 situation it would honestly be stupid to go all in on the 2020 season.

On the defensive side: Until Hightower retired I think most of looked quite favorably on the defense. Sure the DL might not be top notch, but LB looks good, and the secondary is basically the best in the league.

On offense side: Clearly a rebuilding year. Some young WRs who might improve. A couple of rookie TE. Sanu wasn't the difference between us contending for a title and not.

In some sense imagine I told you before the 2010 season that Moss would be traded after week4. What would you have thought of our offense?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

IMO, the roster is plenty loaded. I believe:

a.) We have a top 10 offensive line even with Cannon opting out.
b.) We have the best cornerbacks in the league....Gilmore/Jackson/Jones to go along with JMac and Joe Juan.
c.) DMac is still one of the top safeties in the league...and I love Phillips/Brooks/Dugger back there.
d.) I believe we have one of the better RB rooms in the league with Michel/Harris/White/Burkhead and even JJ Taylor on the PS.
e.) Our WR's are sub-par as a whole...but I think Edelman will be healthier this year and don't forget James White is actually our 2nd best WR. We just need N'Keal to play like a first rounder that he SHOULD be. Byrd will at least draw some coverage deep, IMO.
f.) Our TE's have been upgraded which wasn't even hard to do given how bad it was last year.
g.) Jakobi Johnson will help us a lot this year, IMO...or at the very least match what Elandon Roberts gave us last year.
h.) We still have the best ST coverage units in the entire league.
i.) Bailey is probably a top 5 punter as well.
j.) We still have the best coaching staff in the league....this should especially help us during the pandemic. Even our new OL coach is related to Gregg Popovich!
k.) Oh...I almost forgot...we got a certain highly motivated former MVP on an one year prove it deal behind center...

No chance BB is playing for 2021. He is playing for the NOW and 2021 at the same time...he's always a short/long term guy.....

I like the team but I’d feel MUCH better with Hightower. Lb took a huge hit, losing the top 3 now and that’s my main concern as far as what the d will look like compared to last year. Still confident bb can work his magic there as we were in a similar situation in 2017 after Hightower went down. it eventually solidified until the sb where butler wasn’t used and our secondary wasn’t good enough to mask the weaknesses in front of it. With our secondary even stronger now, totally possible the d can still be great but still a question mark until we get to see it.

But overall I do agree it’s far from a “tank style” roster and I think a playoff berth is very doable.

 

[XLIX]

Don't know why people still entertain the idea that Belichick or any other NFL coach would deliberately tank a season. It just doesn't happen, and no the Colts didn't do it either.

 

[sb1]

View attachment 28525

<X Disagree>

The Colts lost almost their entire front office, coaching staff, and half their roster was purged after their debacle. As would most other teams after a 2-14 season. So what exactly did they gain by deliberately tanking and losing games.

It doesn’t happen. Period

 

[tasmlab]

It just doesn't happen, and no the Colts didn't do it either.

From Wikipedia:

"The 2011 Indianapolis Colts season was the franchise’s 59th season in the National Football League, the 28th in Indianapolis and the third (and last) under head coach Jim Caldwell. The Colts were coming off a 10–6 record in 2010 and a second consecutive AFC South championship, as well as a ninth consecutive playoff appearance. In 2011, the Colts were looking to set an NFL record for the most consecutive playoff appearances (10) and be the first NFL team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium (Super Bowl XLVI was held in Indianapolis).

The Colts had placed their franchise tag on star quarterback Peyton Manning before the season started but he sat out the entire season due to neck surgery. The Colts turned to retired quarterback Kerry Collins and then to Curtis Painter, neither of whom could fill Manning’s void.[1] The team finished the season with a 2–14 record, the worst regular season record by a Colts team since 1991, and failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

The Colts offense had weakened rapidly in 2011. They were 30th in the league in yards gained (compared to 4th in 2010), 27th in passing yards (compared to 1st in 2010), 29th in receiving yards (compared to 2nd in 2010), 28th in scoring (compared to 4th in 2010), and 28th in total touchdowns (compared to 2nd in 2010).

The Colts set a dubious NFL record on pass defense, by allowing 71.2% completed passes by opposing passers.[2]

On January 2, 2012, one day after the final game of the season, Colts owner Jim Irsay fired team Vice Chairman Bill Polian and his son, team Vice President and general manager Chris Polian. Irsay stated that the fate of head coach Jim Caldwell was still under review. On January 17, 2012, Irsay announced the firing of Caldwell as the head coach of the Colts.[3] On March 7, 2012, Manning was released by the Colts. These moves marked the first major rebuilding of the team since..."

The whole top of the team was beheaded. My guess is the whole team was built on having a historically good, second-best-QB-in-the-league at the helm to have it work. Take away that, have garbage as backup, and simultaneously fielding the worst secondary ever gets you two wins.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

It is also worth noting that Brady not being on the team is costing the Patriots $13,500,000 off the 2020 salary cap.

Add in Antonio Brown ($4,750,000), Stephen Gostkowski ($3,200,000) and Michael Bennett (2,000,000), and that is $23,450,000 of dead money that was unable to be used on free agents for this season.

My guess is that the Pats leaned a bit towards a 'win now' mode the last three years in comparison to how they usually manage the cap, and now they are paying the price this season.

Since Brady was not coming back that would drive a more "win now" mentality since dead cap can't be extended. I'll take ring 6 any day and nobody should be mad.

This year will have 2009 characteristics with Newton as the wild card. He does well.......and an extension sounds plausible because money will be available to add talent to maximize his skill set.

 

[sb1]

From Wikipedia:

"The 2011 Indianapolis Colts season was the franchise’s 59th season in the National Football League, the 28th in Indianapolis and the third (and last) under head coach Jim Caldwell. The Colts were coming off a 10–6 record in 2010 and a second consecutive AFC South championship, as well as a ninth consecutive playoff appearance. In 2011, the Colts were looking to set an NFL record for the most consecutive playoff appearances (10) and be the first NFL team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium (Super Bowl XLVI was held in Indianapolis).

The Colts had placed their franchise tag on star quarterback Peyton Manning before the season started but he sat out the entire season due to neck surgery. The Colts turned to retired quarterback Kerry Collins and then to Curtis Painter, neither of whom could fill Manning’s void.[1] The team finished the season with a 2–14 record, the worst regular season record by a Colts team since 1991, and failed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

The Colts offense had weakened rapidly in 2011. They were 30th in the league in yards gained (compared to 4th in 2010), 27th in passing yards (compared to 1st in 2010), 29th in receiving yards (compared to 2nd in 2010), 28th in scoring (compared to 4th in 2010), and 28th in total touchdowns (compared to 2nd in 2010).

The Colts set a dubious NFL record on pass defense, by allowing 71.2% completed passes by opposing passers.[2]

On January 2, 2012, one day after the final game of the season, Colts owner Jim Irsay fired team Vice Chairman Bill Polian and his son, team Vice President and general manager Chris Polian. Irsay stated that the fate of head coach Jim Caldwell was still under review. On January 17, 2012, Irsay announced the firing of Caldwell as the head coach of the Colts.[3] On March 7, 2012, Manning was released by the Colts. These moves marked the first major rebuilding of the team since..."

The whole top of the team was beheaded. My guess is the whole team was built on having a historically good, second-best-QB-in-the-league at the helm to have it work. Take away that, have garbage as backup, and simultaneously fielding the worst secondary ever gets you two wins.

Worth noting too that the 2010 Colts were beaten by Mark Sanchez and the Jets in the wild card round at home. I know we lost to them too but we were a great team that just had the first clunker game of the year at the worst possible time.

They didn't lose on purpose or set up their team to lose. They were just an awful team on both sides of the ball that became historically so after losing Manning, they also had a head coach with NCAA coaching W-L record of under .300. Yeah....

 

[woolster22]

Tank? Thats laughable. BB is an NFL historian, not simply the HC of the most dominant NFL dynasty in history. He took two young te's early, and has invested heavily in RB the last few drafts. Sure, there's been losses all over due to Covid/retirement/players moving on. Most playoff contenders can make the same claim. It is what it is.

All we need from cam is an average season in the air and at least the appearance of a threat to create with his legs. Feed the stable of young RBs, and if the two rookie TEs even show JAG potential, the offense will be a problem for this pass happy league's light defenses. Don't believe me? Go watch last year's Tenn/Balt games. We're seeing the pendulum swing back.

 

[SnowPlowFelon]

I don't believe that BB is tanking.

Here's the thing: Belichick is right now, this very second, the 8th oldest head coach in the history of the NFL. Ever. The oldest ever is George Halas. He was less than 4 years older than Belichick is right now when he stopped.

You think he wants to go through a complete tear-down and rebuild at 68? I sure as hell don't.

 

[Spiral]

The Patriots were in a rebuilding mode in 2001 and won the Superbowl. I think that BB will always coach his players hard and put maximum effort into winning every game. He's knows the league and knows his team better than anyone. He's stashed some developmental players on the back end of the roster and on the PS, cleared cap space this year that he will likely push into next year, when the cap will be going down and teams will be off-loading starting-caliber players. And as much as he probably likes Thuney, he likely already has his 2021 replacement in the pipeline. If ever there was a season to do all these things, this is it.

 

[imahobgoblin]

Imagine if Tom Brady was on the team and this was the final roster?

Billy would get a big fat F for the off season.

Imagine we live in reality and this is the team BB chose to field.

 

[imahobgoblin]

The roster he has built is truly puzzling. I certainly do not believe he would tank. However, WR, DT, DE, LB and TE groups are extremely surprising to me. Does not feel like he is going all in, more like he is building for 2021.

How can you have a group of WR's who other than Edelman no one has more than 50 career catches. Does that make any sense at all? No run stuffing DT, when there were decent options available. The whole kicker fiasco.

So far the COVID 19 poisoned rate in NFL has been incredibly low, but when travel and games start up beginning this week, perhaps BB does not have confidence that the NFL will make it through the full season? That would explain why he is sitting on all the cap money and has not gone all in with trying to build a team for THIS year with more potential to compete?

The other possibility is he may not truly believe they can compete for a SB this year, so why spend $$, better to wait when they are further along in rebuild process.

"The roster does not meet my personal expectations and approval, therefore it all sucks and BB is a fool."

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

But Covid matters a lot because next year the salary cap is going to collapse.

Bill will push so many of the salaries into this year with all that cap space, and teams will begin jettisoning star players in the spring and early summer. These teams with QBs making $40m a year are going to suffer horribly.

This season is going to destroy the careers of Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes as their teams are going to be left threadbare by the carnage to come.

I think not. Team can carry forward unspent cap $ into 2021.
Since there is some mutual interest, owners & players will find ways to soften the COVID cap hit by "borrowing" from future anticipated revenue & putting $ into 2021.