Interesting read on statistical analysis and predicting games

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Read this this morning. This guy built a program which uses algorithms using statistcis to predict matchups and how players college players will perform in the NFL. What was interesting is that a few NFL teams have worked with him and how well he did predicting 2011 postseason games.

He says several professional sports teams have used his information, looking for ways to predict player performance. Among his biggest sports clients, he says, are NFL teams. He has come up with a way to predict how college players will perform in the NFL and he says six teams have been interested enough in his findings to pay for them.

In an NFL where every bit of information is considered a secret, no matter how trivial, Bessire can't reveal the names of the teams to whom he provides information. And those teams would never admit using it, certainly not as a primary source of evaluation. The closest confirmation comes from one club that acknowledges the existence of Bessire's system, but there is no sense as to how heavily it is used.

The beauty of the numbers is finding simplicity in the complex. One of Bessire's great successes is correctly predicting all 11 NFL playoff games against the spread in 2011. This came in the middle of a run in which he went 20-3 in postseason predictions. He assessed a wide variety of numbers, accounting for among other things, each team's strength of schedule. But in the end, only one statistic mattered most: his algorithm kept showing that the teams with the best pass rush would win every time.

Then they did.

"I don't want to say that a great pass rush and a good quarterback are the most important things for winning football games, that would be bad for business," he says with a chuckle. "But certainly getting to the quarterback is one of the biggest factors."

Lastly, he talks about how he takes every bit of information into account including injury reports, except for one team, the Patriots

He uses these base statistics whether predicting a player's performance or a team's potential. There are other mitigating factors, of course. Strength of schedule is important, especially when trying to determine how well a team will do, as are injury reports.

Bessire has learned to parse the documents that teams hand out daily, putting a percentage of probability that a player's pulled groin or sprained ankle will allow him to play in the next game. Using the Green Bay Packers' yards per pass statistics are little good if Aaron Rogers can't play. Over the years, Bessire thinks he has come to understand the silent language of the vague injury report – assessing trends for many of the coaches who release their information in predictable ways. The biggest exception to this is New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who releases injury information in a fashion that makes it impossible to properly assess.

"I think he enjoys doing that," Bessire says.

It's a good read if you guys have time Y! SPORTS