I'm Finally Convinced: This is Brady's Last Year in New England

[Tottie]

Thuney, Collins, Karras, Van Noy, DMac, Slater, Brady and 11 others...... who is going to take up $25 million when the Patriots really don’t have as much room as most other teams under the cap????

It comes down to 2 things:
1). Exactly what level of unprecedented “hometown discount” would Brady accept
2) How much Kraft values Bill Belichick

There’s a lot of folks here not looking at the reality of the situation. If Brady does something to make the NFLPA blow its lid, then sure, he may have another year or two with the Pats (with no guarantees from Bill about playing). But it would take an unprecedented underpayment if not considering his age.

Those guys are all important but you act as though Brady isn't. I like your point but I think we disagree on the figure. A starting QB does not make 16-20mil a year. BB will pay Brady somewhere around 25 and be happy about it. If Brady were to ask for 30-35, then I see it playing out the way you describe, but I don't know that he would ask for that. He's never been one to push salaries up for NFLPA. Think of who you would replace Brady with for your projected cap hit of 16-20mil? Who? Dalton? I mean any option in that range and you aren't making the playoffs with that schedule.

 

[shmessy]

I wouldn't be surprised if the McCourtys retire, and I would be surprised if Van Noy, Collins and Thuney are back next year. Someone is going to throw big money at those three and unless they are willing to take a discount I don't see us matching. Aside from those guys Brady is the only one who isn't a role player/special teamer.

So, the question remains, who replaces those players and what level of replacement talent would the Patriots have for. 43 year old Bradyceating over $20 million in cap space next year?????

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[shmessy]

Those guys are all important but you act as though Brady isn't. I like your point but I think we disagree on the figure. A starting QB does not make 16-20mil a year. BB will pay Brady somewhere around 25 and be happy about it. If Brady were to ask for 30-35, then I see it playing out the way you describe, but I don't know that he would ask for that. He's never been one to push salaries up for NFLPA. Think of who you would replace Brady with for your projected cap hit of 16-20mil? Who? Dalton? I mean any option in that range and you aren't making the playoffs with that schedule.

We disagree on your 4th sentence. We’ll see.

.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

I wouldn't be surprised if the McCourtys retire, and I would be surprised if Van Noy, Collins and Thuney are back next year. Someone is going to throw big money at those three and unless they are willing to take a discount I don't see us matching. Aside from those guys Brady is the only one who isn't a role player/special teamer.

Brady needs top players to be a top QB now.
We don't have that on offense here anymore.
He has that on either LA team.
Yes I think the Rams could pay both Brady and Goff and bench Goff for 2 seasons.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Socci is a nice, classy guy, but man, he’s no Gil Santos in his prime. Down, distance before every play - he painted a picture without any wasted words”
.

Yup. Once upon a time announcers would tell you WHERE a flag was thrown so you could kinda sorta try to figure out the call before it’s made official. It was a nice bit of engagement. Now you just get “flag down on the play.”

Anyway, on topic: To repeat, Brady isn’t going anywhere.

 

[p8ryts]

Brady signs a year at a time until Belichick or Brady decide he's done. Belichick avoiding being saddled with a contract for an aging player. It's just good football economics.

 

[shmessy]

Yup. Once upon a time announcers would tell you WHERE a flag was thrown so you could kinda sorta try to figure out the call before it’s made official. It was a nice bit of engagement. Now you just get “flag down on the play.”

Anyway, on topic: To repeat, Brady isn’t going anywhere.

He may very well stay a Pat. But not anywhere near $25 million and BB still the HC.

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[Tottie]

We disagree on your 4th sentence. We’ll see.

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I'd love to know what his dead money hit is should he walk away. I know in Brees' case it's enormous because of multiple 1 year restructures. I think that figure will also matter here.

 

[203Pat]

So, the question remains, who replaces those players and what level of replacement talent would the Patriots have for. 43 year old Bradyceating over $20 million in cap space next year?????

.

The same way they replace everyone who leaves. Sign some bargain barrel free agents. Maybe Brooks and Harmon split some of Dmac's role. Maybe Calhoun and a free agent or rookie fill in for Collins and Van Noy.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Brady needs top players to be a top QB now.
We don't have that on offense here anymore.
He has that on either LA team.
Yes I think the Rams could pay both Brady and Goff and bench Goff for 2 seasons.

With Goff's $36M cap number next year??? Their top 5 players are already at $100 Million plus..
Los Angeles Rams Salary Cap | Over the Cap

 

[shmessy]

The same way they replace everyone who leaves. Sign some bargain barrel free agents. Maybe Brooks and Harmon split some of Dmac's role. Maybe Calhoun and a free agent or rookie fill in for Collins and Van Noy.

Well , then 43 year old Brady would be expected to do more next year. That would be pretty.

.

 

[Tottie]

So Pats dead cap hit on Brady for 2020 is 13.5 mil. If Stidham isn't ready I would think they would resign Brady and push that hit to next year with a 25mil/year deal. If by some miracle Stidham is ready then you can swallow that hit. Next year Brees would have a 21mil dead money cap hit. Every year they resign him they seem to push it further down the line. It's going to hurt when he retires, especially without another ring.

 

[203Pat]

Brady needs top players to be a top QB now.
We don't have that on offense here anymore.
He has that on either LA team.
Yes I think the Rams could pay both Brady and Goff and bench Goff for 2 seasons.

I don't know how the Rams fit Brady in with the massive contacts they already have. They have some terrible contracts on the books with Goff, Gurley, and Cooks and still need to pay Ramsey. Goff is slated to count $36 mill against the cap next year so there is no way they pay Brady even $20 mill. Also that Rams offense isn't as loaded as it was last year with Cooks being severely limited with all the concussions, Gurley's knee falling apart, and their aging starting LT going into free agency next year.

The Chargers are in better position than the Rams are since they don't already owe a QB huge money next year but they still will have to pay Bosa soon and as of right now Eckler, Gordon, and Hunter Henry are all free agents next year. On top of that they have their starting LT as well as Keenan Allen are in contract years next season. That core could dissolve before Brady's eyes if he were to sign there or the Chargers could decide to draft a young QB and build for the future.

 

[goheels22002]

I agree that this is it. But I think it's a clean and simple retirement. If Brady had enjoyed a consistently good offensive line, fullback and tight end blocking, he would stick around. I think what has been clear this season is that so much depends on a healthy, top-tier protection scheme for a man his age. The Patriots will have to spend serious money and draft pass protection this Spring.

Without David Andrews, Gronk, Develin and Wynn, he hasn't had a chance to excel.

With Wynn back and Roberts blocking, things look better. The TE blocking has been mediocre at best since Gronk retired.

It is quite possible this team can win the Super Bowl if the line plays like it did against the Bengals and the Bills, especially with a week off for the bye. The best defense left in the AFC playoffs picture is the Bills, who the Patriots know how to attack, and who they would get at home if the Bills beat the Texans in the Wild Card Round (probable), and the Ravens in the Divisional Round (possible.)

 

[203Pat]

Well , then 43 year old Brady would be expected to do more next year. That would be pretty.

.

If they make a move for Beckham or AJ Green or some receiver of that caliber and Harry continues to develop that isn't a bad receiver group with a healthy Edelman. Maybe they draft a TE early or even sign a mid tier guy (or both) and the offense looks much better.

 

[203Pat]

Edit: wrong thread.

 

[archstanton543]

I know it's farfetched but if you're Rosenhaus (and let's just pretend AB isn't a complete idiot) but what if you tell the Saints, or any team in the league, AB will sign right now for the veteran minimum for the rest of the year. Basically hope you force the league's hand and try and get them to make a decision on a suspension length. Also that way they can attempt to argue that while he was on the exempt list that should count as part of his suspension. As of right now he is just sitting out there not gaining any credit to games missed due to some sort of league penalty.

What does this have to do about Brady potentially leaving after this season?

 

[203Pat]

What does this have to do about Brady potentially leaving after this season?

Lol I thought I was in the AB thread.

 

[shmessy]

If they make a move for Beckham or AJ Green or some receiver of that caliber and Harry continues to develop that isn't a bad receiver group with a healthy Edelman. Maybe they draft a TE early or even sign a mid tier guy (or both) and the offense looks much better.

Once again - salary cap????

 

[venecol]

It is quite possible this team can win the Super Bowl. The best defense left in the AFC playoffs picture is the Bills, who they would get at home if the Bills beat the Texans in the Wild Card Round (probable), and the Ravens in the Divisional Round (possible.)

You're saying the only way Pats go to SB is if AFCCG is at NE hosting the Bills? I suppose the Bills have a 10% chance of going to CG, so anything is possible.