I'll admit i was wrong - Amendola didn't work

[primetime]

Had Amendola opted for surgery rather than non-surgical treatment, he would have been placed on IR after week 1. I posted a peer reviewed journal article earlier in this thread that had the non-surgical return from Amendola's injury at 8 weeks (it also had low sample size, and the low values tended to be players who don't make cuts like offensive and defensive linemen)... Amendola, at 3 weeks, would have been a low outlier.

But, you know, Brady6 thinks Amendola's injury wasn't so severe.

 

[goheels22002]

Mike Wallace was a pretty awful move that will haunt Miami for a lot of years.

I'm not going to pretend to be a stats nut,but Amendola was given a +6.8 PFF rating, with Welker being a 7.1 (post-concussion Welker fell through the floor...remember, Amendola had one, too). He's also considered by far the best blocker of our WRs.

Interesting 9 and 11 here: Advanced NFL Stats - Player Statistics by Position

His ratings also scaled greatly with snap counts, climbing way up on the games where he played the most snaps. Is that a match-up thing, an injury thing or (likely) a combination of both?

Edelman was targeted on 12.5% of his snaps, Amendola on 12.4% of his snaps, Dobson on 12.3% of his snaps...

If you project out Amendola's snap count to equal Edelman's and that number holds, he catches 94+ balls (Eldeman had 105).

Again, I'm not a big stat guy - I have no idea if ANS or PFF are any good or any of that. I was reading a thread elsewhere about Amendola and saw these stats so I followed them back to the source material and sorted through it. Even with the injury this year, he was an above-average receiver, and by all accounts, a very good blocking WR (which the Pats value, and which shows dedication).

He'll get another year to prove his value; the criticism, "CUT THE BUM!" attitude on this thread is way over the top.

Excellent post. Especially the stats about targets percentage of snaps. That puts a lot in perspective. I think Amendola is better next year, and if he can strengthen his legs and groin, he'll get better separation.

Oh, and one more thing, you are a big stat guy if you're citing Advanced NFL Stats

 

[Brady6]

Had Amendola opted for surgery rather than non-surgical treatment, he would have been placed on IR after week 1. I posted a peer reviewed journal article earlier in this thread that had the non-surgical return from Amendola's injury at 8 weeks (it also had low sample size, and the low values tended to be players who don't make cuts like offensive and defensive linemen)... Amendola, at 3 weeks, would have been a low outlier.

But, you know, Brady6 thinks Amendola's injury wasn't so severe.

I think that you need to stop acting like I'm The Joker and you're Batman. Amendola made $8.5 million to play with an injured groin, I am not overwhelmed with empathy for him. I am a fan I don't have to cut players slack for anything, most make more in a year than I will net in my lifetime to so a job that I have and would play for free.

Not mention Amendola didn't have surgery and he still is not having it so outside of your speculation how am I supposed to know that it was ever needed or even a consideration? On top of that if Amendola is such a superior talent to Welker or Edelman in theory he would be starting as a more effective player wouldn't the drop off due to the groin just bring him down to their level, maybe a little lower? That's an exaggeration slash sarcasm to some degree but my point is we're talking about an injury that causes pain, it doesn't immobilize him correct, or change his athletic ability? That's a question I'm not sure if it does or not. In the case that it doesn't wouldn't it just come down to pushing through the pain? If so would you not expect someone who was cut a check for $8.5 million to push through that pain?

 

[JackBauer]

my point is we're talking about an injury that causes pain, it doesn't immobilize him correct, or change his athletic ability?

What on earth are you talking about?

 

[PatsFan2]

How some defend Armendola is beyond me isn't Armendola a Posession WR? So why were we so abysmal on 3rd Downs. As pointed out Armendola is a average WR when healthy YOU DONT GIVE AVERAGE PLAYERS $5Mill a year. BB the GM should be blamed for that.

 

[primetime]

I think that you need to stop acting like I'm The Joker and you're Batman. Amendola made $8.5 million to play with an injured groin, I am not overwhelmed with empathy for him. I am a fan I don't have to cut players slack for anything, most make more in a year than I will net in my lifetime to so a job that I have and would play for free.

Not mention Amendola didn't have surgery and he still is not having it so outside of your speculation how am I supposed to know that it was ever needed or even a consideration? On top of that if Amendola is such a superior talent to Welker or Edelman in theory he would be starting as a more effective player wouldn't the drop off due to the groin just bring him down to their level, maybe a little lower? That's an exaggeration slash sarcasm to some degree but my point is we're talking about an injury that causes pain, it doesn't immobilize him correct, or change his athletic ability? That's a question I'm not sure if it does or not. In the case that it doesn't wouldn't it just come down to pushing through the pain? If so would you not expect someone who was cut a check for $8.5 million to push through that pain?

I just posted that he was injured and that his injury would have put him on IR had he opted for surgery. I never said he was a superior talent to Welker or Amendola. And the check they cut him is also immaterial - his cap hit was $3.5m and compared to other veteran receivers his production-to-cap hit ratio was actually above the regression line, as you'll see here: Workbook: NFL Receiver Value, 2013

This means that the Patriots actually got more production from Amendola than you would expect given his cap hit for the average NFL receiver who is off his rookie contract even if you ignore the fact that he was injured and missed 4 games and parts of others.

Your only argument to counter this fact is that Robert Kraft cut him a check for more than his cap hit, which is true but doesn't matter at all. Especially "as a fan."

 

[manxman2601]

Mike Wallace was a pretty awful move that will haunt Miami for a lot of years.

I'm not going to pretend to be a stats nut,but Amendola was given a +6.8 PFF rating, with Welker being a 7.1 (post-concussion Welker fell through the floor...remember, Amendola had one, too). He's also considered by far the best blocker of our WRs.

Interesting 9 and 11 here: Advanced NFL Stats - Player Statistics by Position

His ratings also scaled greatly with snap counts, climbing way up on the games where he played the most snaps. Is that a match-up thing, an injury thing or (likely) a combination of both?

Edelman was targeted on 12.5% of his snaps, Amendola on 12.4% of his snaps, Dobson on 12.3% of his snaps...

If you project out Amendola's snap count to equal Edelman's and that number holds, he catches 94+ balls (Eldeman had 105).

Again, I'm not a big stat guy - I have no idea if ANS or PFF are any good or any of that. I was reading a thread elsewhere about Amendola and saw these stats so I followed them back to the source material and sorted through it. Even with the injury this year, he was an above-average receiver, and by all accounts, a very good blocking WR (which the Pats value, and which shows dedication).

He'll get another year to prove his value; the criticism, "CUT THE BUM!" attitude on this thread is way over the top.

This post should be stickied. It makes a mockery of all the anti- Amendola nonsense. Good job.

 

[Huckleberry1]

What on earth are you talking about?

Something to keep in mind as you wade through the 800.000 posts of pure drivel from Brady6 is that he actually opposed re-signing Welker because he was going to be 33-34 years old. he had absolutely no problem with the Amendola signing but has been rewriting history since the beginning of this season.

 

[AzorianPats]

This post should be stickied. It makes a mockery of all the anti- Amendola nonsense. Good job.

50 yard line as been nailing all his points!!

Well put my man!

 

[PatsChamp88]

This post should be stickied. It makes a mockery of all the anti- Amendola nonsense. Good job.

While I agree it still doesn't make me feel any better if the guy can't stay healthy

 

[50-yard-line]

On top of that if Amendola is such a superior talent to Welker or Edelman in theory he would be starting as a more effective player wouldn't the drop off due to the groin just bring him down to their level, maybe a little lower? That's an exaggeration slash sarcasm to some degree but my point is we're talking about an injury that causes pain, it doesn't immobilize him correct, or change his athletic ability? That's a question I'm not sure if it does or not. In the case that it doesn't wouldn't it just come down to pushing through the pain? If so would you not expect someone who was cut a check for $8.5 million to push through that pain?

Yikes, I can tell you've never had a groin injury.

I've never had anything like what Amendola went through, but a simple groin pull - not even a bad one - ended my season at second base and made me the DH for weeks. Any time I tried to cut, it felt like someone was cutting into the muscle halfway between the groin and the hip with a serrated knife.

Bending over for a ground ball was not going to happen.

It's a miserable injury, and certainly restricts lateral movement.

 

[Snake Eyes]

I think that you need to stop acting like I'm The Joker and you're Batman. Amendola made $8.5 million to play with an injured groin, I am not overwhelmed with empathy for him. I am a fan I don't have to cut players slack for anything, most make more in a year than I will net in my lifetime to so a job that I have and would play for free.

Not mention Amendola didn't have surgery and he still is not having it so outside of your speculation how am I supposed to know that it was ever needed or even a consideration? On top of that if Amendola is such a superior talent to Welker or Edelman in theory he would be starting as a more effective player wouldn't the drop off due to the groin just bring him down to their level, maybe a little lower? That's an exaggeration slash sarcasm to some degree but my point is we're talking about an injury that causes pain, it doesn't immobilize him correct, or change his athletic ability? That's a question I'm not sure if it does or not. In the case that it doesn't wouldn't it just come down to pushing through the pain? If so would you not expect someone who was cut a check for $8.5 million to push through that pain?

Empathy? Are you serious?

Would you expect the same performance from a car with a flat tire as you would with 4 good tires? Empathy has absolutely nothing to do with it, torn muscles do not have the same contractile abilities as those that are healthy. Amendola came back not fully healed because BB deemed that option as superior to putting him in IR, if you want to blame someone you should blame BB.

 

[50-yard-line]

50 yard line as been nailing all his points!!

Well put my man!

Thanks to you and to others, but credit given to where it's due - as I said, I read most of this stuff on another board, one where the number crunchers are so damned knowledgeable, I don't even have the guts to sign up and post for fear of looking like a neophyte.

Honestly, I hate the way Boston media - and by extension, some fans - treat the people who come here to play in any sport. Boston media talks as if it's THEIR MONEY paying the guys, even in sports where there is no hard salary cap. Every time they attack a player, the first thing out is how much he makes. Good grief.

Were I a Yankees fan, I wouldn't give a damn if Ellsbury was worth 158 million or Tanaka was worth 150 million - NOT MY MONEY. Still, thank god I'm not a Yankee fan, because, well, they're the MFY!

Certainly football is different with the hard cap and the critical draft, which makes the off-season a lot more fun than other sports, usually. It's great fun to speculate about who'll restructure and who they might be able to afford to bring in and all that...

But it also makes the off-season truly aggravating sometimes, particularly when people get personal about it.

Did the Pats make a mistake with Amendola? I don't think so, but I don't know yet, and neither does anyone else. Certainly in three games at least, he showed me that he can bring some real value, and anyone questioning his guts and desire to be out on the field is doing so against all evidence. He's got the heart - he needs a bit of health luck for a change (so does Edelman and so did Edelman).

If some folks could step back and remove the Welker issue from the Amendola decision, they'd probably find their blood pressure in a better place.

The Pats were convinced Welker was leaving, no one had any idea if Edelman could play at any decent level after wiping out last year repeatedly, and they had to go and find a guy who could compliment their expected weapons in Gronk and Hernandez.

The best guy out there, short of Victor Cruz (which wasn't happening) was Danny Amendola, by all accounts - if someone has a better player in mind who was available at that time, please let me know.

So they had to replace Welker - Plan B - and they feared that if they waited, they wouldn't get either. I have no doubt that if NE didn't sign Amendola, someone else would have. BB doesn't like Welker and it's clearly mutual. He didn't want to be here. Kraft said their offer (even after signing DA) was better than Denver's - and it was. Welker is Denver's #3/4 and he's 8million against the cap this year, but with only 2 million of dead money if he's cut.

It is what it is, and what it looks like is either a vast overpay for this coming season, a certain restructure (does Welker have many good years left?) or, as was hinted at by Kraft, after all a one-year, six million $$ deal.

Still, it's frustrating to see a talent like Welker walk. However, letting that frustration bleed into Amendola isn't fair at all to the guy.

 

[manxman2601]

While I agree it still doesn't make me feel any better if the guy can't stay healthy

Hey look, if Amendola has this type of season again next year then I'll be all for cutting him then. But we can't give up on a guy because he had an injury this year. Bailing on him after just one season is just reactive.

 

[SalemPats]

Thanks to you and to others, but credit given to where it's due - as I said, I read most of this stuff on another board, one where the number crunchers are so damned knowledgeable, I don't even have the guts to sign up and post for fear of looking like a neophyte.

Honestly, I hate the way Boston media - and by extension, some fans - treat the people who come here to play in any sport. Boston media talks as if it's THEIR MONEY paying the guys, even in sports where there is no hard salary cap. Every time they attack a player, the first thing out is how much he makes. Good grief.

Were I a Yankees fan, I wouldn't give a damn if Ellsbury was worth 158 million or Tanaka was worth 150 million - NOT MY MONEY. Still, thank god I'm not a Yankee fan, because, well, they're the MFY!

Certainly football is different with the hard cap and the critical draft, which makes the off-season a lot more fun than other sports, usually. It's great fun to speculate about who'll restructure and who they might be able to afford to bring in and all that...

But it also makes the off-season truly aggravating sometimes, particularly when people get personal about it.

Did the Pats make a mistake with Amendola? I don't think so, but I don't know yet, and neither does anyone else. Certainly in three games at least, he showed me that he can bring some real value, and anyone questioning his guts and desire to be out on the field is doing so against all evidence. He's got the heart - he needs a bit of health luck for a change (so does Edelman and so did Edelman).

If some folks could step back and remove the Welker issue from the Amendola decision, they'd probably find their blood pressure in a better place.

The Pats were convinced Welker was leaving, no one had any idea if Edelman could play at any decent level after wiping out last year repeatedly, and they had to go and find a guy who could compliment their expected weapons in Gronk and Hernandez.

The best guy out there, short of Victor Cruz (which wasn't happening) was Danny Amendola, by all accounts - if someone has a better player in mind who was available at that time, please let me know.

So they had to replace Welker - Plan B - and they feared that if they waited, they wouldn't get either. I have no doubt that if NE didn't sign Amendola, someone else would have. BB doesn't like Welker and it's clearly mutual. He didn't want to be here. Kraft said their offer (even after signing DA) was better than Denver's - and it was. Welker is Denver's #3/4 and he's 8million against the cap this year, but with only 2 million of dead money if he's cut.

It is what it is, and what it looks like is either a vast overpay for this coming season, a certain restructure (does Welker have many good years left?) or, as was hinted at by Kraft, after all a one-year, six million $$ deal.

Still, it's frustrating to see a talent like Welker walk. However, letting that frustration bleed into Amendola isn't fair at all to the guy.

I think a lot of us were happy that we got Amendola (a lot sad that we lost Wes, but that's business). I was excited, he made some acrobatic catches with the Rams and we all thought having Brady would give him Wes like numbers. But Amendola is injury prone, his hands are not as good as we thought and his route running is not as good as the top slot guys. I think we all saw that Brady lost trust in him as the season wore on and Edelman became the guy. Even without Gronk and down in a game against the Broncos he had 0 catches. Edelman had a great season and too me goes in next year ahead on the depth chart of DA.

If Edelman (if resigned) is in the slot, can DA play on the outside. I don't think he's physical enough to last a season there, nor do i think he's good enough to do that. I think people fail to see that he will be the #4 option for TB next year (behind Edelman, Gronk, Vereen) and who knows if we draft/sign someone or a Dobson breaks out. I don't see DA making an impact next year.

 

[Brady6]

What on earth are you talking about?

I was asking a question, I have been fortunate enough never to have a groin injury so I was curious if it was an injury that immobilized you like a broken leg, knee blowout or if it was an injury that didn't limit mobility but caused pain when making movements.

 

[PatsChamp88]

Thanks to you and to others, but credit given to where it's due - as I said, I read most of this stuff on another board, one where the number crunchers are so damned knowledgeable, I don't even have the guts to sign up and post for fear of looking like a neophyte.

Honestly, I hate the way Boston media - and by extension, some fans - treat the people who come here to play in any sport. Boston media talks as if it's THEIR MONEY paying the guys, even in sports where there is no hard salary cap. Every time they attack a player, the first thing out is how much he makes. Good grief.

Were I a Yankees fan, I wouldn't give a damn if Ellsbury was worth 158 million or Tanaka was worth 150 million - NOT MY MONEY. Still, thank god I'm not a Yankee fan, because, well, they're the MFY!

Certainly football is different with the hard cap and the critical draft, which makes the off-season a lot more fun than other sports, usually. It's great fun to speculate about who'll restructure and who they might be able to afford to bring in and all that...

But it also makes the off-season truly aggravating sometimes, particularly when people get personal about it.

Did the Pats make a mistake with Amendola? I don't think so, but I don't know yet, and neither does anyone else. Certainly in three games at least, he showed me that he can bring some real value, and anyone questioning his guts and desire to be out on the field is doing so against all evidence. He's got the heart - he needs a bit of health luck for a change (so does Edelman and so did Edelman).

If some folks could step back and remove the Welker issue from the Amendola decision, they'd probably find their blood pressure in a better place.

The Pats were convinced Welker was leaving, no one had any idea if Edelman could play at any decent level after wiping out last year repeatedly, and they had to go and find a guy who could compliment their expected weapons in Gronk and Hernandez.

The best guy out there, short of Victor Cruz (which wasn't happening) was Danny Amendola, by all accounts - if someone has a better player in mind who was available at that time, please let me know.

So they had to replace Welker - Plan B - and they feared that if they waited, they wouldn't get either. I have no doubt that if NE didn't sign Amendola, someone else would have. BB doesn't like Welker and it's clearly mutual. He didn't want to be here. Kraft said their offer (even after signing DA) was better than Denver's - and it was. Welker is Denver's #3/4 and he's 8million against the cap this year, but with only 2 million of dead money if he's cut.

It is what it is, and what it looks like is either a vast overpay for this coming season, a certain restructure (does Welker have many good years left?) or, as was hinted at by Kraft, after all a one-year, six million $$ deal.

Still, it's frustrating to see a talent like Welker walk. However, letting that frustration bleed into Amendola isn't fair at all to the guy.

Not to beat dead horse but do you think had New England not signed Amendola before Welker signed with Denver that they could have brought Welker back? To me that seemed like the final straw because New England was able to afford Welker at what Denver is paying him I believe but maybe they wouldn't budge on their offer which seems a bit ridiculous but not out of the question.

 

[PatsChamp88]

Hey look, if Amendola has this type of season again next year then I'll be all for cutting him then. But we can't give up on a guy because he had an injury this year. Bailing on him after just one season is just reactive.

Yeah I agree it just doesn't make sense right now but hey you never know we'll just have to wait and see. He can be a difference maker and contribute for us when healthy so we can just hope he's able to stay healthy.

 

[primetime]

Not to beat dead horse but do you think had New England not signed Amendola before Welker signed with Denver that they could have brought Welker back? To me that seemed like the final straw because New England was able to afford Welker at what Denver is paying him I believe but maybe they wouldn't budge on their offer which seems a bit ridiculous but not out of the question.

The evidence is all circumstantial one way or the other, but I don't think Welker was coming back no matter what. The Patriots refused to give him the salary he deserved for several years, and he and Belichick appear to have had a... falling out, to put it kindly.

 

[PatsChamp88]

The evidence is all circumstantial one way or the other, but I don't think Welker was coming back no matter what. The Patriots refused to give him the salary he deserved for several years, and he and Belichick appear to have had a... falling out, to put it kindly.

Yeah makes sense