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This article notes the last 5 years were horrid. What do you think happened ?
It actually shows the 2015 and 2016 drafts were exceptional and near the top of the league with the 5 year stretch as being slightly above league average. It does show the last 3 have been poor with the 2017 being notably terrible.
I found the charts to be interesting, if for no other reason than we finally have something to quantify how one team performed versus others in the draft. Far more useful than the anecdotal 'could have had this guy', and the typical focus on busts (with no comparison to how well the 31 other 31 teams fared).
NFL Drafting Efficiency, 2010-2019
Guest columnist Benjamin Ellinger breaks down every draft pick in the past 10 years. Did Cleveland's tanking policy pay off? Which teams had the best results in the draft, and which wasted their picks? And is there anything meaningful in this data, or is there really some skill involved? The...
www.footballoutsiders.com
Below is a lengthy forensic examination of the 2017 draft. For the tl;dr portion of the forum it appears as though it wasn't quite as bad as originally perceived when you take into consideration the productivity from veterans that the Patriots received in exchange for draft capital. The two third round picks (Derek Rivers, Antonio Garcia) definitely hurt - as did the two fourths (Deatrich Wise, and the one heisted by Goodell over psi). Some of the poor draft results can be attributed to parting with draft capital in exchange for veterans, based on Tom Brady turning 40 before the season would begin that year.
Going back to that low rated 2017 draft, it began with the Patriots trading their #32 pick for Brandin Cooks. While Cooks was in Foxboro for one season, his 1,182 yards and seven TD don't get figured into the Draft Performance Formula. And the Pats got most of what they traded away back when Cooks was traded to the Rams.
In the second round the Pats moved down eight spots for Kony Ealy, which at the time everybody thought was a good value. Then they traded down again, for a third and a fourth. This is where the picks that did not work out begins, with the selection of Derek Rivers. Then the Pats sent a 3rd and 4th to Detroit, trading up from #96 and #124 to #85 - and picking Troy State OT Antonio Garcia. His health issues had a domino effect: it had already cost the Pats two draft picks (the trade up), and now the team would have to use another pick the following year at that position. (Isaiah Wynn, with the first round pick acquired by trading Cooks - that could have been used elsewhere).
Back to 2017. The Patriots own third round pick (#96) had been used to trade up for Garcia. The Pats also had a compensatory third (#103, from Cleveland in exchange for Jamie Collins), but that was traded away as part of the acquisition of Cooks. The Saints and Pats had swapped places in that deal, #103 for #118 - but the NFL stole that pick away when they failed to acknowledge the Ideal Gas Law, choosing a set up witch hunt over science.
Next was the second part of what the Pats received in the Kony Ealy trade. The Pats received #72 from the Panthers, and turned that into #83 (Rivers) and #124. Problem is that #124 was gone as it had been used to trade up - for Garcia.
The next move was a trade with Seattle, trading up from the fifth to fourth (#131) and selecting Deatrich Wise. Fortunately it didn't cost much, just an exchange of seventh round picks. The Pats own fourth round pick (#137) had been traded to the Colts for TE Dwayne Allen.
The Pats had acquired a fifth round pick (#163) when they traded TE AJ Derby to the Broncos; they used that pick to obtain RFA RB Mike Gillislee from Buffalo. Their own fifth (#175) was used in a trade with Cleveland for special teamer and backup LB Barkevious Mingo. A fifth round compensatory (#183) was traded to KC for TE James O'Shaughnessy.
A sixth round pick acquired as part of the Dwayne Allen trade had been traded away earlier. The Pats moved up five spots from #216 (acquired in the O'Shaughnessy trade) to #211 to draft Conor McDermott, costing them only a seventh (#239). The Patriots also traded their own sixth (#215) to Detroit for Kyle Van Noy. Their seventh rounder (#250) was traded to Detroit for TE Michael Williams.
If you look at what the Patriots did with their draft capital, their 2017 draft went something like this:
- 1.) Brandin Cooks (later traded for Isaiah Wynn)
- 2.) Kony Ealy/Antonio Garcia
- 3.) Derek Rivers
- 4.) Deatrich Wise
- 4.) Dwayne Allen
- 5.) Mike Gillislee
- 5.) Barkevious Mingo
- 5.) James O'Shaughnessy
- 6.) Conor McDermott
- 6.) Kyle Van Noy
- 7.) Michael Williams












