While Ill be happy if Hightower is signed long-term I am comfortable knowing it won't be for unreasonable dollars.
(I am blessed this is the team that will never pay a WR 4y 68M etc. despite increasing cap)
Is that possible in this year's market . overloaded with money and short on top players (LB especially)? Unfortunately the odds are pretty much against it. While I can understand Reiss line of thinking in today's article on High -
Dont'a Hightower's free-agent process could resemble Devin McCourty's - I think its a little naive . and disregarding the blatant difference in general and specific FA market situation of D-Mac and High. If you don't tag Hightower he most probably walks.
The thing where Reiss is right is that BB will not get intimidated by market. He knows better than anybody what Hightower is worth to this Patriot team and in general (accounting injury situation, leadership, Pats LB depth, LB market incl. UFA, RFA and trades etc. - all this with view on 2018 not 2017 as Lombardi explained). He will (and most probably already has) lay down the best possible offer considering all that, willing to pay a little extra . but not much.
If competing for High long-term in this years market is not reasonably possible then there are 4 options.
1.
Keeping him for 1y under FT: I don' think that will make anyone happy: BB would overpay the tag that is 15M (all LB incl. Von etc.) instead of 10.5M (ILB) for an injury prone player that will be extra careful re playing with injury (since tag carries no insurance in case of injury). Hightower will be happy with the money of course but will live in fear of injury.
2.
Transition tag him: While this tag is much cheaper (11M) it gives Pats only little leverage (5 days delay that keeps High out of the first days of FA frenzy that could possibly shy away some suitors - but not likely) and is the only option that could leave them completely empty-handed (not even 2018 comp pick). On the other hand it would be very much BB like: lets see what the market really says when it gets down to sign the paper and then decide if matching that is worth it.
3.
FT to trade: If BB&co assess that it is not possible to keep Hightower on their terms the most economic option would be to tag&trade him. The unfairly high cost of his FT might scare suitors as well, but they would be willing to offer him more than the Pats long-term so it shouldn't be too scary. There are ways to “reduce“ his tag cost in trades by taking in account cap-hit players from trade partners (similar to Cooper in CJ deal) - more about this in today's Patspulpit article here:
Patriots should tag-and-trade LB Dont'a Hightower
4.
Let him walk for a probable 2018 3rd round comp pick.
In the end, only Pats FO (and BB in particular) know how much Hightower is worth to them - also in light of roster building beyond 2017.
And while Id love to see him signed long-term - Id be very much curious to see how they go about it by letting him go.
(bc as we've learned so many times - this team doesn't stand or fall on Hightower)
In any case: most exciting team building couple of years are ahead of us.