Yup - there's a reason why a lot of players get peeved over getting the franchise tag. It's not that they they think they can get more per year (although maybe they do), it's that they're peeved they miss out on the guaranteed money - signing bonuses, etc. that can be a lot higher in aggregate.
Hightower is franchised at 15m and won't sign a 4 year, 50m deal with 25m in guaranteed cash because of that 15m/year "leverage"? What happens to that leverage when he signs the franchise tender and then tears his patella tendon in week 10? That money is now gone; all he gets is the 15m. There's a risk the player takes in this strategy. Can very will work out, but it might not.
"ALL he'll get is $15MM" And what you wrote is exactly what teams don't want to pay long term deals at huge money. If Hightower does tear his patella tendon in week 10, the the Pats will end up having to pay him over $10MM that he didn't earn on the field.
Now I sincerely hope Hightower is back next year, and I would be fine if we pay him around what Jamie Collins got. But let's also remember that he's missed a quarter of the regular season in EACH of the last 3 seasons. Let us also remember that Tavon Wilson had 25 more tackles during the regular season, but that shouldn't shock you since there were 114 other NFL players who had more tackles than Danta Highighower. (BTW- Malcoln Bulter had just one less tackle.)
No question he made a key play in the superbowl. No question that he is a key leader on the team and a linchpin in the locker room and getting people in the right position on defense. That is the only reason I would even consider paying him top 5 ILB money.
You CANNOT pay him stupid money even when you have the cap space. Deals like that always end up killing you down the road. You can probably count o both hands the number of top money deals that end up with the player performing to the money he's getting paid. Given the amount of money they get, it's almost impossible for the player to play that well.
Fortunately the Pats have been fortunate to have have a number of guys who came close to that ideal. Brady of course, but also Wilfolk Law, McCourty (so far), Mankins (until his last year here), and Seymour come do mind. Though Seymour never came close to living up to the deal Oakland gave him.
In an era where LB's like Ryan Shazier are now the ideal and are being sought after and speed is the #1 quality teams are looking at, a 270lb LB with good but not great speed at some point becomes the guy you are pulling on passing downs, and you can't pay THAT much money for a guy who isn't on the field.
I'd be interested to know 2 stats. 1. the percentage of defensive plays Hightower played in. 2. The average percentage of plays Hightower played, in the 12 games he dressed for. I'd be surprised if the total number was over 50%. Obviously the other number will be higher for the 2nd one, but I'm curious to know by how much. When he dressed, how much over 60% of the snaps did he play each game, and if its less than 75%, how do you justify using that much of your cap on a guy who isn't on the field for 3/4's of your snaps. McCourty gets top dollar, but I bet he's on the field for over 90% of the snaps.
Personally I think they franchise him, and work out the deal over time. I'm still 90% he'll be back. But if he walks (which I will hate), I have no doubt they can find someone who will be at least 90% as good for a lot less than the 90% of the money he asked for. However the leadership gap won't be easy to replace, but eventually they will. $65MM can buy a number of good players, even in market that doesn't have a lot of high end FA's.
