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I suppose to cut to the chase, what we're doing here is a self-defeating exercise by definition. We're trying to put a value on intangibles.
At the high end, as you say, you can say the intangibles "pushed Indy over the top," or at the low end, you could say "he had no influence another decent kicker would not have had." Since neither argument turns on his actual performance, I don't think this differs from other notoriously unwinnable arguments of faith.
Regarding the cap windfall of the CBA extension, I think you're point's getting clearer. Tell me if I have this right: The Colts would have been strapped for cash, and the Pats would have had more. The Colts could not have made their move.
So in woulda-coulda-shoulda terms, we are arguing that the Colts would procede from an assumption of scarcity, and would not have made AV an acceptable offer.
This leaves open the question as to whether AV just wanted out. Assuming he did not, he would stay with the Patriots, continuing the status quo ante. Continuing with the Mojo Theory of Super Bowl Victory, the Pats roll on to win Super Bowl XLI (PFnV's corollary, though not part of the original Mojo Theory argument [I think.])
Two problems:
1) AV might have just wanted out. I do not know of conclusive evidence that he was heartbroken to leave. He may have just grabbed the cash from whatever suitor valued him more than the Pats. This only shoots down PFnV's corollary, however, not the original Mojo Theory.
2) AV might not be responsible for the Colts' victory. No proof is offered to support the Mojo Theory, because the Mojo Theory is based on "intangibles." Since we can not measure the intangibles, we can neither prove nor disprove the Mojo Theory.
Lost in all this is the question of "what would have happened had Gostkowski been a bust?" This is also, of course, the question we'd all be gleefully asking, had the last few minutes of the AFC Championship Game gone the other way. "My God - we would never have won SB XLI without this guy!"
I believe he was 6-for-6 in the post-season, including a 50-yarder. He's also a strong-legged kid who will be kicking for the Pats for years to come (the first few years quite cheaply.)
So maybe you're right, in some kind of parallel universe quantum physicists talk about. But in our reality, the Mojo Theory is unproven and unproveable. All we know is what we do have, and I'm pretty happy with the new kicker.
What we don't have is another Lombardi, and on that score, I think we're both a little crabby... which is understandable.
PFnV
At the high end, as you say, you can say the intangibles "pushed Indy over the top," or at the low end, you could say "he had no influence another decent kicker would not have had." Since neither argument turns on his actual performance, I don't think this differs from other notoriously unwinnable arguments of faith.
Regarding the cap windfall of the CBA extension, I think you're point's getting clearer. Tell me if I have this right: The Colts would have been strapped for cash, and the Pats would have had more. The Colts could not have made their move.
So in woulda-coulda-shoulda terms, we are arguing that the Colts would procede from an assumption of scarcity, and would not have made AV an acceptable offer.
This leaves open the question as to whether AV just wanted out. Assuming he did not, he would stay with the Patriots, continuing the status quo ante. Continuing with the Mojo Theory of Super Bowl Victory, the Pats roll on to win Super Bowl XLI (PFnV's corollary, though not part of the original Mojo Theory argument [I think.])
Two problems:
1) AV might have just wanted out. I do not know of conclusive evidence that he was heartbroken to leave. He may have just grabbed the cash from whatever suitor valued him more than the Pats. This only shoots down PFnV's corollary, however, not the original Mojo Theory.
2) AV might not be responsible for the Colts' victory. No proof is offered to support the Mojo Theory, because the Mojo Theory is based on "intangibles." Since we can not measure the intangibles, we can neither prove nor disprove the Mojo Theory.
Lost in all this is the question of "what would have happened had Gostkowski been a bust?" This is also, of course, the question we'd all be gleefully asking, had the last few minutes of the AFC Championship Game gone the other way. "My God - we would never have won SB XLI without this guy!"
I believe he was 6-for-6 in the post-season, including a 50-yarder. He's also a strong-legged kid who will be kicking for the Pats for years to come (the first few years quite cheaply.)
So maybe you're right, in some kind of parallel universe quantum physicists talk about. But in our reality, the Mojo Theory is unproven and unproveable. All we know is what we do have, and I'm pretty happy with the new kicker.
What we don't have is another Lombardi, and on that score, I think we're both a little crabby... which is understandable.
PFnV
