PatsFans.com Menu
PatsFans.com - The Hub For New England Patriots Fans

Content Post Idle Thoughts: The "why do I feel so bad about a 23 pt. victory" edition.


This has an opening post with good commentary and information, which we definitely recommend reading.
Or closing them, as I did right after Hilliard plowed through the LOS on his way to the EZ...
Of course you are correct Judon , Wise , Barmore , Van Noy and Hightower with Dugger and Phillips close by
 
This is a YAC-centered offense - Mac throws a ultra-catchable ball (Pats have 3rd fewest drop rate ever) and the OC schemes for YACs:





Smith is a great YAC guy - I expect they will keep figuring out more ways to get him the ball in space.
 
Happens to the best of us.. @Miguel has corrected me on more than a few occasions.. And he used to keep a list on his Patscap website of all teh people who had sent in things to help him.
yop @Miguel is great, learned so much from him and one of the few guys I follow on twitter, learned so much from him during the years, would appreciate to see and read from him here more as well
 
Why in the world would Bill/Mayo/Stevie play a scheme to encourage the Titties to run, when all they had going for them was the run? That would be flat-out Stupid.


No they did NOT do a "very good" job...at all.
Why encourage a team to NOT PASS the ball and run it and, in turn, run more time off the clock. A concept that favors the team in the lead?

How many TDs did the Titans get? 2 in total. And one was on the play where Hightower was held that even you could see and understand what was happening. How may points did the Titans get in the 2nd half? ZERO. So, despite all that yardage, they had very little to show for it.

The game plan was to take the ball out of Tannehill's hands as much as possible and make their 3ed/4th string RBs beat us.. And they failed to do that.
 
Aside from Lewan-Saffold on the Left side, the rest of their OL isn't/wasn't very good right now... No excuse for the gashing the defense suffered on the ground, especially when considering that all the Titties had going for them on offense yesterday was their running game... and the defense Still couldn't stop them.
Your evaluation of the Titans O-line is garbage. The fact that you don't look at them as a whole is proof of that.
How many TFLs have they given up to opposing teams? 55 going into the Pats game.. And we only got TWO.
How many of the 33 sacks have been coverage sacks?
 
Lazar has possible explanation for the run issues:

On tape, the biggest issue for the Patriots defense was also smart coaching by the Titans’ staff.

Titans head coach Mike Vrabel knew the Pats would force cutbacks on outside zone schemes by firing the play-side linebacker into the line of scrimmage to set the edge. The Titans had center Ben Jones turn out the Pats’ nose tackles and sent the backside guard through immediately to the second level to combat that strategy. When their ball carriers cut back, the defenders designed to close down the cutback lanes were blocked up by the Titans’ offensive line.

 
Why in the world would Bill/Mayo/Stevie play a scheme to encourage the Titties to run, when all they had going for them was the run? That would be flat-out Stupid.


No they did NOT do a "very good" job...at all.
They allowed 13 points, 7 on a fluke play and only 2 drives with more than 2 first downs.
That is an excellent defensive result.
 
Yes...Yes it does... We STILL need another/better Wide Body at DT.

Some of their alignments didn't help them either, e.g.: Barmore being the Only DT on the field during the Titties' TD run at the end of the first half... I mean, WTF?!?

On the other side of the LOS, No FB = No Gain... and it's beyond obvious now that the Rham >>> the Omen... Start the rookie, Bill.
That play was a 3rd and 4 from their own 32 with 37 seconds left and I think no time outs left. Running was a give up so of course defense was playing the pass. Fluke play.
 
But I do think that the run defense is seriously worrying. If your defense gives up a big play to a wonder catch by OBJ or DeAndre Hopkins or gets outrun by Brandin Cooks, fair enough. But not all teams have players like that. But every team has running plays for first down or third and short and, if you can't stop those, others will see it. Even during the Falcons and Browns games I was haunted by the memory of the Chargers converting a 4th down and pushing their running back into the endzone. Your DL has to stop that kind of nonsense.
Are the vast majority of NFL teams built offensively to pound the running game or built to pass the ball with the running game complimentary?

There is NO WAY to build a defensive unit to be great at BOTH run defense and pass defense in a salary cap era unless you have like three historic drafts in a row (2+ star defensive starters per). You can build a defense to be great at one aspect (vs pass or vs run) and good at another absolutely; or sell out scheme wise (9 in the box for example or 5 DL) but scheme will only get you so far because every NFL team adjusts.

If the majority of teams are built around the pass on offense, it stands to reason that teams built to pound the rock will have success against a defense built to be able to match up with that majority of pass first/run second teams.

How many other teams during this run of Patriots wins HAVE racked up massive run totals? Complimentary football matters too - can the offense put up points to also help make an opposing team one dimensional? They also remain #1 in scoring defense (the ultimate team stat).

The Patriots are merely good at run defense. They're not great run defenders nor are built to be so. It's the risk the Patriots took building the team - they're built to beat the KC, TB, BUF teams that have outside weapons and QBs that make up the majority of their attack. They did well enough against the DAL and CLE where it's not just a given that run defense is their Achilles heel and will result in losses going forward.

The Colts are 4th in rushing YPG (TN was 5th) so let's see how they do there before we declare the run defense dead and the impending death knell of this particular squad.
 
I think they'll fix whatever DL problems they had yesterday. It did seem to be about scheme and a couple of badly executed plays.
The OL being outmatched worries me more.
Mac's inaccuracy in his first cold weather, wet game worries me even more. Hope it is a simple learning curve issue.
How is 70% a sign of inaccuracy for Mac? I think he looked great and appears to be the real thing. That's exciting for us and a pain in the a** for the rest of the NYFL.

I don't remember anyone predicting that this team would be in the hunt for the top seed this late in the season. We're playing with house money right now and there's no need to worry.

AENewman.gif
 
OK, let me explain about the title of this week's missive.

I'm a New Englander, born and bred. Dorchestah Ken, raised in the shadow of the Franklin Field Projects and imbued with the torture of being a life long Boston sports fan. A sports fan who was taught (for the first 57 years of his life), that the Yankees would steal your dessert and break your heart EVERY season. A sports fan who could ignore all the success of the Celtics the occasional success of the Bruins. A fan who had it beaten in him that no matter how good it looked right now, the WORST was right around the corner. Over 20 years of unprecedented success of the Pats and ALL the championships that have come these past 2 decades we CANNOT overcome the joy of those 12 Championships SHOULD have brought and instead focused and agonized about the 3 Super bowl loses and what might have been. I'm a guy who would actually trade 2 of those banners for the one "Perfect Season". In other words, I'm another seriously F#cked up New Englander who worries about a harsh winter in August. We are a tough hard nosed people. The kind you want at your back in a bar fight, but not at your wedding, if you know what I mean. I can't help it.

So while watching this game the slowly increasing margin on the scoreboard didn't seem to register while Tennessee ripped off long run after long run, that never seamed to stop. I mean it was 270 FREAKIN'yards. SEVEN ypc for God's sake! When had that EVER happened, . I was pulling my hair out most of the game waiting for it to stop (and I don't have any to spare)....and it never did. So here we are with another double digit win (23 points) and I'm wondering HOW will we manage another win, especially one in Buffalo. Pretty sick right? So before I revert to type, lets start this break down with the positive things about this game/

1. Mac Jones - Yeah, he was wildly inaccurate, ONLY throwing for a 72% completion rate. :rolleyes: and 310 yds. IIRC that's only his 2nd 300 yd game. Each game, it seems that Josh expands the playbook just a bit more and his YPC grows. Today it was a VERY healthy 9.7 yds per catch. The dink and dunk label will quickly fade if this progression continues. In 2001 Tom Brady threw for 2845 yds with 18 TD and 12 picks.. Today with 5 games left, Mac inched past that mark currently at 2850 with 16 TD's and 8 picks. Admittedly the game HAS changed and 3000+ yds is no longer a good season for an NFL QB, but given all the Brady comparisons that will to continue to come his way, I couldn't help myself with this one. Bottom line the Pats had 10 drives and 9 of them ended in scores. Red zone issues aside, that's a hell of a good outcome.

On the negative side, there were the 2 obvious misses of wide open targets and the 2 sacks he took, that I believe, down the road, he would have evaded. Neither were blind side types. He needs to learn to avoid those at least some of the times. He HAS the athletic ability to make it happen. I also wished his play action pass fakes were a little more realistic. But that aside it was another positive step into his career

2. The RB's - When your Running game is THE key element in your offense and you can't seem to run the ball, you SHOULD be in a lot of trouble. For most of this game the Pats RB's were STONED at the LOS. The only run of the day that had an obvious hole was Smith's 9 yd scamper early in the game. It was bad. Even when they did finally break through late in the 4th quarter 90% of those good runs were all about the RB's and not about any holes that were created. That one long run by Stevenson should be on a highlight reel.. Still that late surge left the RB's with an acceptable 4 ypc on 19 carries. Seemed like a lot less while you were watching.

3. The OL - Mac claimed in his presser that he only got hit 2 times aside for the 2 sacks; The reality was a bit higher with ESPN counting 7 QB hits (btw-does that number count the sacks as hits? Anyone know?) Not too bad against a very good DL. BTW - IIRC Harold Landry will become a FA after this season. With a 4.6 forty and a 6.8 three cone and over 20 sacks through his first 3 seasons, the former BC grad might just want to come home. Just sayin'...
.
On the negative side, Karras is hoping he never has to face Jeffery Simmonds again this season. His stats are NOT going to look good. I thought Wynn played fairly well, but he took another holding penalty this week that marred his overall performance. ouch!

4. The TE's The Pats tried to get Smith going early and he wound up with 3 catches in 4 targets. Henry OTOH, caught only 2 in 5 targets, not that he didn't get open. Here's hoping that Smith's 50 yds is just a taste of what he can bring to the offense. Had Mac hit Hunter those 2 times, it would have been a much better day for the TE's.

6. WR's - Myers continues to expand his range as he averaged over 19 ypc today and was tantalizingly close to his first 100 yd game (98 yds) Jacobi came into the league with UDFA grades at the combine just barely running a 4.6 forty and a 7.10 3-cone. I can't help but wonder if he was timed today if those times were significantly faster. The OTHER former QB who transitioned to WR didn't break on to the scene until his 5 year in the system and look how that one turned out. Bill might not be able to DRAFT WR's, but he CAN develop them.

Kendrick Bourne is looking more and more like the WR we all hoped he would be when he was signed. Easy to see why the Niners were loathe to see him go. He has a very infectious energy. Reiss rightly commented that it was interesting to see how everyone of his teammates "light up" when they talk about him. He's looking more and more comfortable in the offense and very happy to be here. Remember he's on a very team friendly 3 year contract at about 5-6MM per year.

For a team that didn't know who as going to an effective receiving target before the season, and LOST the only consistent target from the past in White, The Pats currently can look to 5 guys, beyond the RB's, Josh is going to get his ideal. lots of guys to target, with no one individual that teams can target.

7. Defense - Has a Bill Bellichick defense EVER given up 270 yds on the ground during his time in NE, or anywhere else for that matter. It was really awful. I guess it only shows how different game to game the results can be. IIRC the Pats did a GREAT job stopping the run last week and pretty much all through this winning streak. Today....not so much. A 5 yd gain felt like a win. It is literally shocking that you can give up THAT many rushing yds and only allow 13 points. Of course 4 TO's can cure a LOT of defensive deficiencies.

But here's the thing, you cannot COUNT on TO's to bail you out EVERY week, because the next deflection will hit the ground like most do. The next time there is is a fumble the kicked ball doesn't wind in YOUR arms, or the punched out ball rolls out of bounds. In other words, some games the ball doesn't bounce your way. IIRC in the 2010 superbowl the Pats D created 4 Giant fumbles and only recovered one. If just ONE more ball bounced the Pats way, there would have been a 7th pelt on the wall. BUT you can't count on your opponent to turn the ball over to win games. About the only thing you can do about TO's is not create them for the other team. THAT to some extent you can control. But counting of 4 TO's per game or the like is NOT sustainable. We are on a great TO run during this streak, but BELIEVE me, it will not last.

a. front -7 - They did a fair job putting pressure on Tannehill, but not like last week. 2 sacks, 5 QB hits was OK. They only passed the ball 21 times. Why would they throw given how effective the run game was. Clearly there WAS some kind of structural issue that needs to be fixed and I'm sure it will be addressed and it won't be as bad next week. My concern was that in the past when we were being gashed like that it would be addressed THAT game. Whatever changes they tried this game just wasn't working. 270 yds is 270 yds.

A good playoff team (and this isn't one yet, you need 9 wins just be be better than .500 and it takes 11 to ensure a playoff appearance) can make adjustments week to week to shore up weaknesses. Lets see if a bad running team like Buffalo can crack this front 7 agaiin.

b Secondary - Tannehill started out this game 8 for 8 and wound up 11 for 21. So the secondary, at least, stopped an early bleed.

Eye test only, but doesn't it seem like Jalen Mills has been much more consistent in his coverage the last few games. I mean, he's a guy that going to be targeted with JC on the other side, but he made play after play on the ball in this one.

I would have liked to see Devon make that tackle at the end of the first half. It would have been a tough one in the open field, but still.

ST's - Hard to say enough superlatives about Nick Folk again and again. I liked the idea that Steven Gotskowski was in the stands for this game and watched as Folk broke his record with his 5th 50+ yarder of the season. What a season.

Gunner is a GREAT punt returner again with an 11 yd average in this game and as fearless as ever. I still have hope for him as a receiver when I realized that Julian didn't break out until his FIFTH season, and this is Gunner's 3rd. Just sayin'

8. And its on to Buffalo. I wish I knew what to say. It will be a wild one for sure. The Bills fans know how to welcome the Pats to their home. There will be a run on those long tables this week in preparation, not to mention bildos. ;) Mac will have to go back to his Auburn memories to compare this kind of hostile environment. My mind is blank as to any analysis. Just that the Bills loss was just a blip on their season. the kind of anomaly that should be completely discarded. Talent wise, I think they will be the best team the Pats have faced thus far and the biggest test of the season. This WILL NOT be a double digit win and the six wins in a row Patriots will likely be underdogs going in. I'm REALLY looking forward to it.

9. The rest of the NFL comments

a. The Jets might have won today, but Wilson is still a mess and didn't contribute to the win.

b. Miami is on a bit of a hot streak of its own. It's offense is slowly becoming competent, while it's defense is rounding into one of the best in the league during this run. Keep that in mind come late December down there.

c. Colts Buc's was a GREAT game. I only saw bits of it during commercials, but Brady looked up and down with only 224 yds and a pick, but in the end with 2 minutes left and 75 yds to go, Brady guided the Bucs to the winning score. Did you expect anything else. ;)
The Colts are a very good team right now and probably should have won the game if they had taken better care of the ball. But lets focus on one game at a time.

d. The Rams Packer game was evidently a good one as well. I only mention it because I NEEDED the Pack to win so I could salvage a 3-2 week for my pool. I'm now in 40th place (out of 148) and only 2.5 games out of the money. I can't believe the Eagles took a dump in NY, and I can't believe I listened to "smart guys" to touted the Steelers and not gone with my gut chose of the Bengals. Oh what COULD have been.

OK that should get things rolling. Meanwhile I'm going to revisit the 86 World series and increase my misery index all these wins are threatening me to break out into a smile. Grab a cup of coffee and enjoy,......AND comment.


"
Disagree on the Bills being the best team they will have faced so far. Both Dallas and Tampa are better than the Bills.
 
This is a YAC-centered offense - Mac throws a ultra-catchable ball (Pats have 3rd fewest drop rate ever) and the OC schemes for YACs:





Smith is a great YAC guy - I expect they will keep figuring out more ways to get him the ball in space.


Good info.

The hype over 'average depth of throw' is total BS and just dumb analysis that dumb teams chase after without understanding what causes wins. You know who leads this stat? Justin Fields. It's one of these crappy stats that has zero link to who is a good QB or not, kind like how high a NBA player can dunk the ball and their vertical leap, it means nothing in terms of being a good player.

The leaders in depth per throw are like 1 more yard per throw over Mac. This totally gets negated if someone has just a few less completion percentage points. A guy who averages 8.5-9 yards per throw but only completes 60% of throws, is significantly worse than a 71% thrower at 7.5 yards a throw. The fact Mac completes so many 7.5 yard passes, is perfect. Keep the clock going. Keep moving the chains. And get a ton of yards after catch. This hype over 1 extra yard on depth of throw is moronic. It's as equally moronic as over-valuing a QB running 0.2 seconds faster on a 40 yard dash when running QBs run maybe only an extra 30-40 yards a game.

.
 
Last edited:
How is 70% a sign of inaccuracy for Mac? I think he looked great and appears to be the real thing. That's exciting for us and a pain in the a** for the rest of the NYFL.

I don't remember anyone predicting that this team would be in the hunt for the top seed this late in the season. We're playing with house money right now and there's no need to worry.

View attachment 38153

Yes, he looks great and appears to be the real thing.
Yes, the team looks strong and I'm very excited about it.
Yes, they are way ahead of my expectations.
Those are all general statements and I'm on board with them.

They have nothing to do with a dissection of his work yesterday. The tale of the tape shows that the QB didn't have his best game at all yesterday, missing more than the usual number of opportunities and leaving a lot of points on the field in the form of field goals. That's all I'm saying. It has nothing to do with my general enthusiasm about the team.
 
Good info.

The hype over 'average depth of throw' is total BS and just dumb analysis that dumb teams chase after without understanding what causes wins. You know who leads this stat? Justin Fields. It's one of these crappy stats that has zero link to who is a good QB or not, kind like how high a NBA player can dunk the ball and their vertical leap, it means nothing in terms of being a good player.

The leaders in depth per throw are like 1 more yard per throw over Mac. This totally gets negated if someone has just a few less completion percentage points. A guy who averages 8.5-9 yards per throw but only completes 60% of throws, is significantly worse than a 71% thrower at 7.5 yards a throw. The fact Mac completes so many 7.5 yard passes, is perfect. Keep the clock going. Keep moving the chains. And get a ton of yards after catch. This hype over 1 extra yard on depth of throw is moronic. It's as equally moronic as over-valuing a QB running 0.2 seconds faster on a 40 yard dash when running QBs run maybe only an extra 30-40 yards a game.

.
Length of throw as one cumulative number is meaningless. Throwing an extra 5 screens a game instead of calling runs would cut 8 yards per to about 6.6 which is ridiculously misleading and heaving 2 deep balls on plays that break down would have twice that impact.
Like most football stats throwing all plays without context into one average rally’s is not useless.
 
Why encourage a team to NOT PASS the ball and run it and, in turn, run more time off the clock. A concept that favors the team in the lead?

How many TDs did the Titans get? 2 in total. And one was on the play where Hightower was held that even you could see and understand what was happening. How may points did the Titans get in the 2nd half? ZERO. So, despite all that yardage, they had very little to show for it.

The game plan was to take the ball out of Tannehill's hands as much as possible and make their 3ed/4th string RBs beat us.. And they failed to do that.
I agree. Everybody was up in arms when Derrick Henry ran for close to 200 in the playoff loss. Our offense only had to match with 14 points to win and they couldn't do it. I don't know in either game if that was BB's plan to play pass at expense of the run but we won yesterday and should have won that one also.
 
I agree. Everybody was up in arms when Derrick Henry ran for close to 200 in the playoff loss. Our offense only had to match with 14 points to win and they couldn't do it. I don't know in either game if that was BB's plan to play pass at expense of the run but we won yesterday and should have won that one also.

If you look at how far back Bentley lined up on the long fumble run, you can see the scheming that led to it. Vrabel did well anticipating the defense the Pats would be in. He just couldn't figure out how to attack it in a consistent manner that led to TD's. Game to Vrabel, set and match to Belichick.

I guess. In truth, WTF do I know.
 


Patriots Kraft ‘Involved’ In Decision Making?  Zolak Says That’s Not the Case
MORSE: Final First Round Patriots Mock Draft
Slow Starts: Stark Contrast as Patriots Ponder Which Top QB To Draft
Wednesday Patriots Notebook 4/24: News and Notes
Tuesday Patriots Notebook 4/23: News and Notes
MORSE: Final 7 Round Patriots Mock Draft, Matthew Slater News
Bruschi’s Proudest Moment: Former LB Speaks to MusketFire’s Marshall in Recent Interview
Monday Patriots Notebook 4/22: News and Notes
Patriots News 4-21, Kraft-Belichick, A.J. Brown Trade?
MORSE: Patriots Draft Needs and Draft Related Info
Back
Top