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Content Post Idle Thoughts: The "why do I feel so bad about a 23 pt. victory" edition.

2021 Patriots Season:
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This has an opening post with good commentary and information, which we definitely recommend reading.

50-yard-line

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
JC Jackson would be a massive loss.

This is why Jonnue, Wynn, Godchaux, others at huge money next year are disasters. Don't tell me we can't afford JC because of 5 crappy contracts next year.
Also Bentley sucks, let this guy walk.
If Jackson is looking for the area of $20/per, he's gone.

I love the guy, but I'll be stunned if the Pats move above 16/17, and I doubt Jackson takes it.

You're right, they shouldn't have picked up Wynn's option, because they obviously could have found another Left Tackle for less than 10.5m.../rolleyes.

And you're right, there's no way they should pay the guy getting the most snaps on their DL like the 24th highest paid DT in the NFL.../rolleyes.

And you're right again with Jonnu Smith. We only need 1 TE.../rolleyes.

You got this on macro, don't you?

Look at Da Bruins' post - they can make enough money EASILY for Jackson. The only question is whether or not they want to pay him what he's probably going to get offered elsewhere, or whether they think he's worth the 18m tag price for one year.
 

50-yard-line

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Thanks for this post, @DaBruinz . I was puzzled by the 30 million figure too. You do, though, miss one UFA, I think: Jakobi Meyers. Yes, he's only in his third season, but it seems that he only signed a three year deal.

Personally, I could live with the loss of JC Jackson (at least, I don't see how they can re-sign him without having to do some quite unpleasant things) but Brown, Phillips and Meyers, and, to a lesser extent Karras and Bentley would be painful losses.
Sportrak has the Pats with 29m+ for next year.
 

DaBruinz

Pats, B's, Sox
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Thanks for this post, @DaBruinz . I was puzzled by the 30 million figure too. You do, though, miss one UFA, I think: Jakobi Meyers. Yes, he's only in his third season, but it seems that he only signed a three year deal.

Personally, I could live with the loss of JC Jackson (at least, I don't see how they can re-sign him without having to do some quite unpleasant things) but Brown, Phillips and Meyers, and, to a lesser extent Karras and Bentley would be painful losses.
I didn't miss Meyers because he's an RFA, not a UFA. Just like Olszewski and and Jakob Johnson.

I just showed they could re-sign Jackson without doing anything "unpleasant". They can free up $18M just by converting salary to signing bonuses for Judon, Mills, Jonnu, and Henry.

Of the UFA, Jackson and Phillips are the MUST re-signs, in my book. Bentley would be nice to re-sign but I don't think it will happen right away. Unless something crazy happens like the Pats making and winning the SB, Bentley, imho, is one they can afford to let go. Especially with McMillan coming back and McGrone in the fold already. You're probably saying I'm putting too much faith in them, and I might be.. But Bentley is one whoI think will receive an offer that the Pats won't match.

I don't see the Pats shelling out $15+M for Trent Brown. Not with the injury history and weight issues. Not when they have someone like Onwenu who could take over or they could draft a tackle like they've done in the past.
 

DaBruinz

Pats, B's, Sox
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If Jackson is looking for the area of $20/per, he's gone.

I love the guy, but I'll be stunned if the Pats move above 16/17, and I doubt Jackson takes it.

Look at Da Bruins' post - they can make enough money EASILY for Jackson. The only question is whether or not they want to pay him what he's probably going to get offered elsewhere, or whether they think he's worth the 18m tag price for one year.
The Pats are going to have to pay Jackson $40.8M in the 1st two years of the contract in some way, shape or form. Because that's what he'd get if he was franchised twice. The Franchise tag for this year is 18.566M and then they'd have to do 120% or $22.28M in 2023. They are going to have to go between 4/$72M and 5/$92M to get a deal done. And they're going to have to guarantee him at least $60M of that contract.

I'd originally stated that I thought 4/64 would get it done. But that was before I saw Tre'Davious White's contract extension of 4/69. That's when I started saying 4/$72M-5/$92M.

I don't think people actually understand just how good Jackson is playing.. I did a comparison of Jackson to the Top 7 highest paid CBs after the Falcons game. It's pretty telling. Jackson stats are very comparable or better. And that's despite seeing 10+ more targets than the rest of them.


I'm going to disagree with you that the Patriots will kick Jackson to the curb if he wants $20M because that's right where the top 5 CBs in the league are. And Jackson is one of those guys, whether people want to acknowledge it or not. His numbers don't lie.
 
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BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
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The Pats are going to have to pay Jackson $40.8M in the 1st two years of the contract in some way, shape or form. Because that's what he'd get if he was franchised twice. The Franchise tag for this year is 18.566M and then they'd have to do 120% or $22.28M in 2023. They are going to have to go between 4/$72M and 5/$92M to get a deal done. And they're going to have to guarantee him at least $60M of that contract.

I'd originally stated that I thought 4/64 would get it done. But that was before I saw Tre'Davious White's contract extension of 4/69. That's when I started saying 4/$72M-5/$92M.

I don't think people actually understand just how good Jackson is playing.. I did a comparison of Jackson to the Top 7 highest paid CBs after the Falcons game. It's pretty telling. Jackson stats are very comparable or better. And that's despite seeing 20+ more targets than the rest of them.


I'm going to disagree with you that the Patriots will kick Jackson to the curb if he wants $20M because that's right where the top 5 CBs in the league are. And Jackson is one of those guys, whether people want to acknowledge it or not. His numbers don't lie.
He's absolutely been on that tier with guys like White, Lattimore, Alexander, Slay and Humphrey etc ...

His ball location and ball skills are as good as there is in the league rn. And as good as we've seen a while. Every one of those guys above has lapses and gives up a big play here and there. All a little different but when you talk about the collective play that each brings to the table, JCJ absolutely deserves a seat.
 

Gumby

In the Starting Line-Up
I didn't see the 4th guy during the actual play because of the camera angle.. That's pretty impressive.
In video He kind of flashes across the screen going somewhere else and never really engages Barmore. . I think the slomo film editing to get that screenshot and give the impression of 4 guys engaging was pretty impressive though. Lol
 

Ring 6

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Look at Hilliard's one long run... only one DT (Barmore) on the field, other than that it was Wise and a bunch of LB'er's. Also Barmore shoots the gap, the wrong gap but a gap, which assumes they thought it was a pass play. It was 3rd and 3 but there was only 46 seconds on the clock, it was a well blocked draw play.

In short it was a mistake by the defense, either schematically or in simple execution. Hardly indicative of a team with poor run defense. They have plenty of beef and talent at DT, they have good LB'er's.... they can defend the run or pass whenever they need to. BB will get them in the film room and discuss leverage and tackling.

It was a play they sold out to stop the pass, which is 100% reasonable in that situation.
The fact that it went 62 is on the secondary not the front, as Belichick has stated the first 10 are on the front 7 and the secondary’s job is to stop it at 10.
 

50-yard-line

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
I'm going to disagree with you that the Patriots will kick Jackson to the curb if he wants $20M because that's right where the top 5 CBs in the league are. And Jackson is one of those guys, whether people want to acknowledge it or not. His numbers don't lie.
Not what I would do, but what I think BB will do.
 

50-yard-line

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Yeah I get it. You're an organizational shill here to auto-defend any crap decision made. Just like other shills who kept saying for years NKeal was a good player.... until it was so clear he was crap.
Lol. You crap on the same guys, including Josh, all the time, and will never get off it, no matter any contrary evidence.

You don't think Godchaux is worth 7.5 per? Okay, you're entitled to that opinion, but that's nowhere near top $ for a DT.
You don't think Wynn is worth 10.5 next year? Again, you're entitled to your opinion - go look at what LTs make.
You don't think Smith is worth 12.5 per? Again, same, but I disagree. He's going to be well-worth every penny in the next years as the cap, and TE money, skyrockets.
As for whther those contracts would prevent them from signing Jackson, the answer is NO, clearly and obviously. The only thing preventing them is if they won't go to his price. That's not an opinion on the affordability - they can make it work rather easily.
 

Ring 6

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Yeah I get it. You're an organizational shill here to auto-defend any crap decision made. Just like other shills who kept saying for years NKeal was a good player.... until it was so clear he was crap.
You speak as if having a positive evaluation of the organization that produced the greatest run of success in the history of the league is mindless support and trashing it is honest evaluation when in fact they exact opposite is true.
If you take a posters evaluation opinions about the patriots organization and remove the names and it sounds like they are talking about the browns or Bengals, the poster is an idiot. If it sounds like they are talking about a tremendously successful and effective organization they are being fair.
 

BTTA

He/Him
PatsFans.com Supporter
Mac Jones hasn't been perfect but he's far exceeding expectations for a rookie. And a 70% completion rate is awesome, especially considering that he threw a few longer passes.


There is a distinction, seemingly lost to many on this board, between "hey, the (player/team) could do this better going forward" and "the player/team aren't good."

There are other posters who constantly denigrate the team's accomplishments and players, in a march over a cliff of pessimism and despair. That's very different. And, easy to distinguish.
 

Chevy

Huh?
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2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
He's absolutely been on that tier with guys like White, Lattimore, Alexander, Slay and Humphrey etc ...

His ball location and ball skills are as good as there is in the league rn. And as good as we've seen a while. Every one of those guys above has lapses and gives up a big play here and there. All a little different but when you talk about the collective play that each brings to the table, JCJ absolutely deserves a seat.

Seems like he plays a lot cleaner now - no gut-punch PI calls (or not as many)
 

captain stone

Hall of Fame Poster
Seems like he plays a lot cleaner now - no gut-punch PI calls (or not as many)
Absolutely... JC was very grabby his rookie year especially, and in the AFCC that year had a couple of hankies thrown at him, though one could make an argument about their flagrancy... He's much, much improved regarding the DPIs now, and maybe part of that is the zebras giving him some respect as well as his improved technique over time...
 

n6249c

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Absolutely... JC was very grabby his rookie year especially, and in the AFCC that year had a couple of hankies thrown at him, though one could make an argument about their flagrancy... He's much, much improved regarding the DPIs now, and maybe part of that is the zebras giving him some respect as well as his improved technique over time...
Both of the above. Plus his increased confidence in himself, not panicking and grabbing instead of using his skills and talent and making plays. May also be opposing QBs giving him increased respect and thus fewer opportunities to have to grab receivers.
 

long distance

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
But I do think that the run defense is seriously worrying. But every team has running plays for first down or third and short and, if you can't stop those, others will see it. In the past, the Patriots have done that with at least one big guy in the middle, going back to Ted Washington and Vince Wilfork. They don't need to be exceptional players like those two. Keith Traylor, Alan Branch and Danny Shelton did the job. I thought that was supposed to be Godchaux. If he can't get it done, it's a serious problem. Barmore is obviously a huge handful for the OL but he's not an out and out run stuffer (I think) and Guy and Davis aren't able to do the job, it seems.

What's worse is that BB pushed all his chips onto the table this season. Not only did he sign more players than anyone had a right to expect, but he signed them to deals that will accelerate next season. So there won't be the space for any kind of big signing to the DL in the off-season, given other needs (cornerback, tackle, safety).

Just to put your mind at peace (albeit 2 days late)

1. There was/is nothing worrying with how players played on DL. God, Guy, Davis did decent job at what they were asked to do. Barmore played through injury and he was used less. If you actually watch the tape you will see that the game plan was to invite inside run. IDL was wide spread and many times it was 9 TEN run blockers vs 7 box D of NE. Do the math. Both TEN lines did great job, even better than most of the season.
More on all that in separate post. Also if you go back and watch the tape you will def. not want Shelton (or even Branch outside that one season) to step in for God or any other DL of this D for that matter.

2. BB did not “push all his chips onto the table this season“. I really dont know why this is so hard to understand. He spent the money he had (like he always does and all good teams always do), had extra $ from disbandment year previously. And again, Pats are one of the very few teams that did not make any restructures pushing $ forward in a cap strangled yr. As mentioned many times before Pats are in good Cap situation going forward. Look at combined Effective Cap Space for 2022 & 2023 (like you always should) and you'll see Pats clearly among top 10 in the league. Next year they can push a lot of $ forward and have a lot of space in 2023 and beyond to easily do that.
 

BTTA

He/Him
PatsFans.com Supporter
2. BB did not “push all his chips onto the table this season“. I really dont know why this is so hard to understand. He spent the money he had (like he always does and all good teams always do), had extra $ from disbandment year previously. And again, Pats are one of the very few teams that did not make any restructures pushing $ forward in a cap strangled yr. As mentioned many times before Pats are in good Cap situation going forward. Look at combined Effective Cap Space for 2022 & 2023 (like you always should) and you'll see Pats clearly among top 10 in the league. Next year they can push a lot of $ forward and have a lot of space in 2023 and beyond to easily do that.

It is amazing how that narrative sticks. Its like people can't stop seeing the bright shiny number without having it freeze their comprehension.
 

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