Idle thoughts - "the lost opportunity" edition

[203Pat]

**THIS IS COMPLETE SPECULATION*** but it caught my eye for a second when Jermaine Eluemunor went out with a migraine. I have no idea if this is something he suffers from regularly but I have seen that a bad headache is one of the early symptoms of Covid. I know they were all tested one hundred times since Cam showed up positive but it was the first thing I thought of when he went out.

 

[sb1]

Stidham came in the game as ice cold as a backup QB can get. A game like that did absolutely nothing to change my opinion of him. If Cam can't go vs Denver there's no downside in letting him start. No Miller to worry about either. If he shows something, he is our new backup QB right behind Cam.
Seems straightforward.

 

[PP2]

Like the great majority of you guys, I had little hope for this game as soon as I heard Cam wouldn't be playing. In fact let's list the obstacles this team had to over come.

a. They lost their starting QB and the key factor in their offense just a day before the game was originally going to be played.

b. Their facility was shut down, so there were no meetings, let alone walk throughs prior to the game

c. They had to fly out THIS morning to KC and played just 3 hours after they landed in KC

d. Oh and about that offensive line we were so happy about in game 3. Well only ONE guy was playing in the same position for this game. (Wynn). Mason and Elumanuer miss the game entirely, Oweneu had to move to RG, Thuney back to LG, Fertentz is comes up from the PS to start at C ( Thank GOD Jones was hurt) and some guy who had Herren on the back of his jersey was playing RT (did anyone else go "who is Herren" when they saw this?

e. And then during the game I find out Sony Michel (who just had his best game as a Patriot) is now on IR

f. Your QB didn't know he was starting until Saturday, got NO starting snaps all week (even after he knew he was starting)

Then you add the adversity they had to overcome DURING the game.

a. TWO dropped picks (and I mean EASY picks) led directly to 10 KC points

b. Your supposed second best offensive player decides THIS is the game he would have his WORST game as a Patriot with 2 drops and a pick 6 to his credit.

c. The refs make one of the WORST calls I have ever seen. A call that not only took away possession, but cost them a TD by negating the run. Sterrattor was desperately back peddling trying to explain it before they mercifully went to commercial before his tongue was tied in knots.

d. Then you lost 6 points when your 12 year veteran QB made 2 rookie mistakes.

So in the end. Instead of thinking that they just had a "moral victory", I NOW have to believe that the team we put on the field tonight despite ALL the factors written above WAS capable of beating the Chiefs tonight had they played a smarter, more precise and better executed game. We might not win every game we play the rest of the year. BUT, after watching this game, they won't face a team that they CAN'T beat. So lets break it down quickly since I have to be up early tomorrow (so my opinions will be less fact based, than gut based and hopefully my gut will be vindicated when we see the rewatch thread and get all the "grades" later in the week.

1. Offense

a. General thoughts - I would have liked to have seen just a few deep throws. Too many of the throws tonight seemed to go LESS than 10 yds beyond the LOS. My other general thought was that TE's we've never heard of are catching balls all over the league. Good teams, bad teams, it doesn't matter. Cmon Bill. We drafted 2 TE's in the first 3 rounds. Isn't it time they got some targets??????

b. QB - This wasn't the ideal situation for Brian Hoyer to get his first start as a Patriot, to say the least. Like its not like he's the most athletically gifted QB to begin with, but LORD, what I didn't expect was the mental errors that proved so costly.

On the other hand, Jared Stidham may have wound up with a horrid statistical game, but I LIKED some of what I saw. I liked the way the ball came out of his hands. I LIKED that he threw it downfield to a guy who got behind the secondary. and yes, it was picked off, but he will get better at it. It will be pointed out that the pass had to be released earlier and have more loft. I liked the velocity and zip I saw on his ball.

Clearly he needs to learn to step up in the pocket and set his feet better, but it took Cam Newton 9 years to start to learn those things. Stidham missed most of TC how could he NOT make mistakes. Bottom line here: If Cam is unable to start next week, I want Stiddie to be our QB vs Denver.

BTW- as badly as the QB's played tonight, they only threw for only 45 yds LESS than the best QB in the league. Think about that.

c. OL - Anyone know what happened to Mason and Elumaneur. I don't remember hearing anything during the week. Well regardless, the offensive line played pretty well IMHO, given the fact they were a patchwork group. Only 2 sacks and a half dozen hurries. Add to the fact they were part of another 180" yd running attack. Whoever the 2 guys who are coaching this group, who names I can't remember. I need to know more about them because they are doing one HELL of a job each and every week, especially given all the changes they are having to go through so far. And while I STILL don't know who Herren is, he wasn't horrible enough that I could pick out his flaws.

BTW- When I saw Ferrentz was starting at C, I never thought we'd move the ball at all. I NEVER liked him as an OLman. I always figured that this would be a nice gig for the kid before he gave it up and went back to the family business (coaching). I REALLY didn't think he was any good. That being said, like Herren, he wasn't awful such that he stood out. I thought he didn't allow much up the middle in the pass rush, and while he wasn't blowing people out or getting to the 2nd level much, he also wasn't getting pushed back much either. Good for him, but I can't wait for him to go back to the PS and Andrews comes back.

RB- Damian Harris had a good night with 100 yds to his credit. But we have to temper any hype just yet. I thought he left more than few yds that he could have made with better reads. He certainly runs with power, but I think he has the speed to bounce it out more. But given how few practice reps this kid has had, it was a good showing. I'm only pointing out the negatives to emphasize how much upside is left.

The other RB's also averaged over 4ypc and it was good to see James White back (though he looked rusty.)

WR's - Harry showed real athleticism on his TD catch. He also showed some run after catch ability on his 3 catches. We KNOW he is capable of making the tough catch. We need to see him learn to separate better so he can get some easy ones. You don't necessarily need great speed or quickness to separate. The greatest WR in NFL history (Jerry RIce), was not particularly quick OR fast. Cmon Troy - Teach this kid how YOU did it when you weren't quick fast, OR big.

I mentioned Jules early in the post so I won't belabor his most forgettable game as a Patriot. Nice catch by Gunner on his first drop though.'

Meanwhile Byrd is very quietly piling up the catches

TE's They didn't do anything again except block well. The WR's ALSO did a great job blocking on the run.

2. DEFENSE.

a, General Defensive thoughts - and because I've been at this for 2 hours and its now midnight, I'm just going to give you my general thoughts and leave it like that.

The most important thing I felt this defense did well was the top 3 things it needs to do. 1. stop the run. 2. contain the QB and 3 create turnovers. They did about 2 and a half of those things. They held the KC RB's to 66 yds and 92 when you add Mahomes' total. They front 7 contained Mahomes and didn't let him extend plays to the point where our defenders could no longer cover their receivers. Finally they would have gotten stars for all three categories had they gotten the correct call, and hadn't dropped 2 easy picks, which would have left them with FOUR turnovers, added 7 points to the Pats and taken away 10 from KC, and you can see where we might have had a different result

So overall. Kudos to the Pats defense. IMHO they played well enough to win this game and were let down by the offense. The ENTIRE offense.

b. I STILL worry that a big physical team like the Titans or Ravens could overpower our front seven in the playoffs. But to date, the front 7 have improved every game.

3 ST's - Folk's FG's and extra points looked as solid and straight as they've had all season. Baily's punts were as good and well placed as we've seen. and coverage was fine.

Final thoughts : If we get to meet KC in the playoffs, I will respect them, but I won't fear them....at least as much as I feared them prior to this game. Also I think this a better team than I gave them credit for, and if it keep up it will be one of Bill's better jobs of his long tenure.

I know I'm leaving out a lot, but I'll try to do better next time.

Good write up- the giant turd the offense laid negated what was a masterpiece of a defensive plan: 8 Dbs and 3 DL, mostly on third down, playing what looks like a cover 2 but it's leveraged coverage which takes advantage of how KC's receivers run all over the field. We maintained leverage which made those receivers run into defenders, rather than away from them. It was so good KC didn't score a TD until late in the 3rd when the D got gassed.

 

[sb1]

Good write up- the giant turd the offense laid negated what was a masterpiece of a defensive plan: 8 Dbs and 3 DL, mostly on third down, playing what looks like a cover 2 but it's leveraged coverage which takes advantage of how KC's receivers run all over the field. We maintained leverage which made those receivers run into defenders, rather than away from them. It was so good KC didn't score a TD until late in the 3rd when the D got gassed.

As someone said earlier defensive coordinators around the league will be paying very close attention to what the Pats did last night.

 

[Uptown]

 

[JayNM]

Hoyer actually cost us the game, but to think we would have a game is already a win in itself. But Hoyer did cost us the game, by doing **** that would be put on a laughing reel if it had happened to the Browns or Jags

As much of a respected veteran he his, we put him on games, we are pretty much admitting defeat from the get go. He is not NFL QB and he can't become one anymore, unlike Stidham

he shouldve been pulled at halftime.

 

[203Pat]

Are they counting Stidham's second INT? If so I wouldn't have called that 7. It was mostly a desperation heave to the end zone.

 

[everlong]

Not that they would have won the game because events would have played out differently and I'm sure Mahomes would have found a way but McCourty makes that pick and that's minus 3 points. Jackson makes that pick and it's minus 6 points (missed PAT). Edelman watches the ball in that's minus 7 points. That puts KC at 10 points. Hoyer doesn't make two boneheaded plays in the red zone that's plus 6 points. The refs don't call that bogus in the grasp and that's a minimum of plus 3 points. Putting the Pats at 19 points.

You forget after 20 years of Brady and a few games of Cam what it's like to not have a top level QB. I could of sworn our jerseys were green and white a few times.

 

[Wozzy]

This is a key point. That was a huge difference between Favre and guys like Elway and Manning - Favre just threw the ball with abandon most of the time. (I AM NOT COMPARING STID TO THESE GUYS BTW TROLLS!) He also racked up up bad interceptions. It's the gunslinger mentality - either I die or you die - not a lot of gray.

The point is a "gunslinger" QB is NOT what BB prefers. His expectations are seemingly based on game management, good reads, high percentages. That said it takes a lot of additional teaching to temper that mentality out of a QB because it's usually instinctual. I don't know if that's what Stidham is as a QB, but initial impressions seem that way - that he will let the ball fly if he sees something he thinks is a big play especially.

I'd still rather that, even with the downside, next week against Denver. Hoyer was the manager that sits in the back office of the store all night doing the paperwork - so much so he misses the big sales he could've had.

Agree here, BB doesn't like the gunslinger mentality. That possibly can be bred out of Stidham to some degree, leaving only the better high percentage passes.

 

[Uptown]

Are they counting Stidham's second INT? If so I wouldn't have called that 7. It was mostly a desperation heave to the end zone.

Not exactly sure, but if I had to guess, I’d say yes.

 

[luuked]

Not that they would have won the game because events would have played out differently and I'm sure Mahomes would have found a way but McCourty makes that pick and that's minus 3 points. Jackson makes that pick and it's minus 6 points (missed PAT). Edelman watches the ball in that's minus 7 points. That puts KC at 10 points. Hoyer doesn't make two boneheaded plays in the red zone that's plus 6 points. The refs don't call that bogus in the grasp and that's a minimum of plus 3 points. Putting the Pats at 19 points.

If Hoyer doesn't make those boneheaded mistakes you will not get Stidham on the field and his TD to Harry disappears. It is possible that we settle for yet another FG with Hoyer instead. That is if we even get to the red zone. It really doesn't make much sense to dwell on those alternate scenarios.

 

[luuked]

Agree here, BB doesn't like the gunslinger mentality. That possibly can be bred out of Stidham to some degree, leaving only the better high percentage passes.

Yes.

I would generalize that to "BB doesn't like high variance play".

 

[luuked]

c. The refs make one of the WORST calls I have ever seen. A call that not only took away possession, but cost them a TD by negating the run. Sterrattor was desperately back peddling trying to explain it before they mercifully went to commercial before his tongue was tied in knots.

It is interesting to me how people are pointing out that BB might have screwed up not challenging this. I get the idea that at least throwing the flag stops the Chiefs from punting immediately and forces the refs to exactly explain what they called. But a timeout does the same thing.

The issue I have with throwing a challenge flag in this situation is more or less exactly what happened when the two teams met last year in Foxboro. We challenged a 50/50 play -- it wasn't reversed -- and then challenged another blatant ref error and suddenly were left with no recourse when Harry had that TD erroneously called back.

I gotta say that it is amazing that we got screwed now twice in a row against the Chiefs about a turnover with clear recovery being either called down by contact or in the grasp. Last year we had to use our second challenge to fix that "down by contact" on Kelce when DMac punched the ball out and Gilmore would have run the ball back and scored. Only to not have a challenge 3 plays later on that Harry TD which didn't count.

 

[PP2]

As someone said earlier defensive coordinators around the league will be paying very close attention to what the Pats did last night.

Except no other teams have the personnel we do, especially the hybrid LB/safeties. It was specifically built to stop KC and almost did, last night.

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

"The game we hoyered away" sigh...

 

[JayNM]

It is interesting to me how people are pointing out that BB might have screwed up not challenging this. I get the idea that at least throwing the flag stops the Chiefs from punting immediately and forces the refs to exactly explain what they called. But a timeout does the same thing.

The issue I have with throwing a challenge flag in this situation is more or less exactly what happened when the two teams met last year in Foxboro. We challenged a 50/50 play -- it wasn't reversed -- and then challenged another blatant ref error and suddenly were left with no recourse when Harry had that TD erroneously called back.

I gotta say that it is amazing that we got screwed now twice in a row against the Chiefs about a turnover with clear recovery being either called down by contact or in the grasp. Last year we had to use our second challenge to fix that "down by contact" on Kelce when DMac punched the ball out and Gilmore would have run the ball back and scored. Only to not have a challenge 3 plays later on that Harry TD which didn't count.

Im with u on in this. It was a incredibly dumbfounded decisition to whistle so rapidly, BB was correctly pissed off and demanding an explanation (and feeling human emotions, which is nice for a chance).

How can any ref crew whistle THE SECOND a man get held in a game of Football is absolutely freaking absurd. It's actually inconceivable.

But here is where I get REALLY mad thinking about this whole skaputz of **** show:

HOW did a ref crew was able to determine WHAT THE **** HAPPENED in 10 or 20 seconds, giving time for 4th down hut? What was going on to make them believe they were on the clock?

That Ball NEVER touched the ground. The ball was in Calhoun's hands. How did the Chiefs manage to boot it in less time than a review, if not by simply ignoring a bunch of rules, when no one knew what the **** happened, not even the refs (some of them were running with our guy to the Endzone)

This was the worst sequence of events I have ever seen in the NFL, in the subject. I became absolutely disgusted by the bias. And the fact the ON AIR those ****ers simply brushed it aside?

Actually nauseating.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

As someone said earlier defensive coordinators around the league will be paying very close attention to what the Pats did last night.

They can copy all they want, but can they pull it off? BB‘s been building this for the last two years — getting the best corners and safeties group in the league, and then still drafting Williams and Dugger. I’m still convinced Williams was drafted specifically with Kelcey in mind. No one has a better defensive backfield than the Patriots. I think he’s been drafting and building the team to stop KC and Baltimore specifically. We saw KC last night. I think Uche and Jennings were drafted specifically for Baltimore, to allow them to go tite/mint with just an average D line and have strong tackling LBs who are used to RPOs being able to pick up the right keys, while still having 6-7 DBs on the field. Like with KC last year, I think it‘ll take another year for the Baltimore defense to be fully implemented, since they’re still rookies and haven’t been able to break through yet with the limited camp and injuries.

 

[luuked]

They can copy all they want, but can they pull it off? BB‘s been building this for the last two years — getting the best corners and safeties group in the league, and then still drafting Williams and Dugger. I’m still convinced Williams was drafted specifically with Kelcey in mind. No one has a better defensive backfield than the Patriots.

I honestly think that people should be more excited about Dugger against TEs than Williams. Williams had 8 snaps last week against Waller and again only played the same 8 snaps yesterday. He is being used very situationally against TEs and even then he managed to be part of that one big play Kelce had.

I like Williams on paper but so far he has not shown me enough to make me excited the same way Dugger has.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I honestly think that people should be more excited about Dugger against TEs than Williams. Williams had 8 snaps last week against Waller and again only played the same 8 snaps yesterday. He is being used very situationally against TEs and even then he managed to be part of that one big play Kelce had.

I like Williams on paper but so far he has not shown me enough to make me excited the same way Dugger has.

I’m with you there. Williams upside, IMO, is Brandon Browner without the penalties. He was a good and valuable player, who was limited but was very good at the role he could play. Dugger’s upside is (gulp, dare I say it?....) Rodney. And he’s showing flashes of it already just through 4 NFL games.

 

[PScottman]

while still having 6-7 DBs on the field

It's even more nuanced than this because it's cover DBs that can and will actually tackle. JC Jackson and Duggar especially were getting into every running play pile, but McCourty has always done that and all of them are very willing tacklers (interestingly probably Gilmore is the least of them in this respect, but even he is solid).