Idle thoughts - the "a win is a win" edition

[skinnydog]

So let's see, first 'oh please'. No where did I comment on the level of "aggressiveness" of the teams listed. Second, the point I made, clearly so, was the defenses listed do in fact play prevent. You suggesting they don't is verifiably incorrect.

Lastly, as far as how aggressive their defenses are compared to the Patriots? That is your decision to be mad and/or sad at the lack of the Patriot's aggression comparable to others. My preference is a 3 phase complimentary football team that optimizes the chance of SB victory (personnel will dictate how BB & staff work out that complimentary equation). Whatever D can be or needs to be played to achieve that I am good with. If you are not? That's your own judgment call...

Well by design the prevent defense is a passive defense or a not aggressive defense. So passive ant prevent are pretty interchangeable and aggressive is the opposite of passive.

Early in the fourth quarter the pats were only up by 9 and seemed to go into a prevent or not aggressive defense. TB eventually scored. On TBs last drive with only about a minute to go the Pats were giving up 20+ yards a play. So no, I don't think the Broncos or Seahawks go into a prevent with only a 9 point lead in the 4th quarter or play so passively that 20+ plays are gimmes at the end of the game.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Well by design the prevent defense is a passive defense or a not aggressive defense. So passive ant prevent are pretty interchangeable and aggressive is the opposite of passive.

Early in the fourth quarter the pats were only up by 9 and seemed to go into a prevent or not aggressive defense. TB eventually scored. On TBs last drive with only about a minute to go the Pats were giving up 20+ yards a play. So no, I don't think the Broncos or Seahawks go into a prevent with only a 9 point lead in the 4th quarter or play so passively that 20+ plays are gimmes at the end of the game.

That's a fair argument to ask about the timing of the Patriots prevent or soft D, pne I agree with that it was too early to do so. The Bucs are not the 2007 Patriots but JW had thrown for 300+ 2 of 3 games. That team can move the ball to some degree.

The flip side is: with the Patriots atrocious 'big play fails' this season as well as a generally 'just get out of here with a W' that BB and staff 'seemed' to be approaching the game with, employing a soft D to prevent the big plays was the safest play to get the win. But I agree that they went prevent/soft (whatever is most accurate) too soon IMHO.

 

[Gumby]

I dont know how often it needs to be hammered into the heads of people but using solely net yards as a metric to judge punting is ******ed.
. . .
Wake me when someone actually produces something representative and normalized for situational football about punting.

Agreed, net is coverage team dep and yards is sit dependent.

I think the one stat that is somewhat meaningful for punts is Number inside the 20. (NE tied for 15th with about 7 teams).

But that would be a tad more useful if they provided the % of punts inside the 20 (NE middle of pack around 33% with great disparity: [rams, Dallas, falcons way outside norm around 60% / Giants pathetic at 5%, Miami-Car hovering just below-above 20% which starts out the pack range of 20-40%]).

So although it does look like NE 30-31 place position in both avg yds and avg net is pretty ****ty, the in20% says they are more like an avg punt team. i bet the net yds will start to improve a LOT now that Slater is back. Still not great (particularly based on BB emphasis as others said-not so great ROI).

 

[slam]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2017 DEFENSIVE DRIVE STATS

Here's another data point. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots opponents have the third worst starting field position in the league starting their drives. How bad can the punting be if that's the case?

(It also makes the defense look even worse statistically if possible)

 

[QuantumMechanic]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2017 DEFENSIVE DRIVE STATS

Here's another data point. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots opponents have the third worst starting field position in the league starting their drives. How bad can the punting be if that's the case?

(It also makes the defense look even worse statistically if possible)

That's likely as much of a function of the offense as the punter. If you have an offense that can consistently get to the 50, your opponent will have lousy starting field position no matter how crappy the punter is.

 

[Tony2046]

That's likely as much of a function of the offense as the punter. If you have an offense that can consistently get to the 50, your opponent will have lousy starting field position no matter how crappy the punter is.

Unless he's putting it into the endzone.

 

[Ring 6]

Oh, please. The aggressiveness of defenses like the Broncos and Seahawks is night and day compared the this Pats defense from the beginning to the end.

You say that like it's better.

 

[1960Pats]

@Ian , @ashley1992 , @Ross12 Can we remove this crap? Ken made no references to this BS.

Actually, Ken did make a political reference with "Regardless of what happens now, it WON'T be my fault. (just like the president)." It was right at the end. You must have missed it.

 

[Kdo5]

Well by design the prevent defense is a passive defense or a not aggressive defense. So passive ant prevent are pretty interchangeable and aggressive is the opposite of passive.

Early in the fourth quarter the pats were only up by 9 and seemed to go into a prevent or not aggressive defense. TB eventually scored. On TBs last drive with only about a minute to go the Pats were giving up 20+ yards a play. So no, I don't think the Broncos or Seahawks go into a prevent with only a 9 point lead in the 4th quarter or play so passively that 20+ plays are gimmes at the end of the game.

When we have a good defense, I hate playing prevent.

But with the defense we have now it's a little more understandable. These guys have given up a lot of big plays. Probably the smart move to play conservative and wish for the best.

 

[skinnydog]

You say that like it's better.

Yes, much better

 

[skinnydog]

That's a fair argument to ask about the timing of the Patriots prevent or soft D, pne I agree with that it was too early to do so. The Bucs are not the 2007 Patriots but JW had thrown for 300+ 2 of 3 games. That team can move the ball to some degree.

The flip side is: with the Patriots atrocious 'big play fails' this season as well as a generally 'just get out of here with a W' that BB and staff 'seemed' to be approaching the game with, employing a soft D to prevent the big plays was the safest play to get the win. But I agree that they went prevent/soft (whatever is most accurate) too soon IMHO.

I think that so far the Pats have demonstraded that even a soft D to prevent big plays can still give up big plays. That said, their use of Gilmore in the last game is a real step in the right direction.

 

[Pats1989]

Watching the Cleveland Browns play a football game really makes me appreciate the Patriots more.

 

[Ross12]

Guess you didn't read the OP's entire post

Actually, Ken did make a political reference with "Regardless of what happens now, it WON'T be my fault. (just like the president)." It was right at the end. You must have missed it.

You guys are right, I didn’t see that little three word blurb toward the end. So that does explain where the removed post came from. That said, I still think it certainly deserved removal, as Ken’s post is extremely lengthy and 99.9% football insight and his one tiny political three-word portion seems to have been meant as a joke and not to incite any argument. Posts like the one removed kinda have to be removed, lest we end up having this thread immediately devolve into yet another political war when the VAST majority of us here want no part in that on this site, including but not limited to its owner.

 

[Gumby]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2017 DEFENSIVE DRIVE STATS

Here's another data point. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots opponents have the third worst starting field position in the league starting their drives. How bad can the punting be if that's the case?

(It also makes the defense look even worse statistically if possible)

That is partly a function of how often the NEP score and cover kickoffs, not necessarily anything to do with punting.

Kickoffs by NE put opponent between 15 -25 generally.
Punts would put opponents between 15 -50 generally.

Example:
So if you have 10 drives a game and kickoff afterwards 7 times in one game the avg opp field position is probably around the 24 [(7*20+3*35)/10]

All else being equal, and just changing to only 4 kickoffs for another team, their opp starting field position is probably around the 29 [(4*20+6*35)/10]

Net 5 yard diff because our offense is good regardless of quality of punt team.

 

[Ring 6]

Current 3-2
Division 5-1 (we might go 6-0, but 5-1 seems more reasonable)
SO FAR 8-3
==========
SO, are we really a LOCK to win 3 out of 4 against 4 playoff contenders? (ATL, OAK, DEN and PITT)?

6-0 the way the division is this year seems very reasonable.
Pitt sucks Denver has no QB Oakland is playing poorly and were with Carr. SHOULD win those 3 and we are a better team than Atlanta and have them at home.

 

[DaBruinz]

How many Special Teams penalties will Brandon Bolden be allowed to commit before Belichick has enough. He has 3 in 3 games.

 

[DaBruinz]

I can't decide if NE was lucky to win ....3 missed FGs / chance to lose on final play...or if NE was just letting the score/lead dictate their level of aggressiveness. As Ken stated, a win is a win.....and style points only count in figure skating, gymnastics, and the NBA

With regards to NE's defense, I'm giving them partial credit for keeping the score down / succeeding on 3rd down / limiting Tampa to FG opportunities instead of TDs.
That being said...Thursday games have to be the easiest games of the year to figure out the opposition's offensive strategy given the lack of mid week practices and the tape of the previous Sunday's game.

What is more clear to me as this season unfolds is....NE is deploying a fleet of JAGs in their front 7 and OL. The lack of talent in the trenches is alarming. Where are the foundation pieces? I count Hightower as one, though he's a continuing health saga.

Think about this teams foundation pieces...Brady great but old, Gronk great but brittle, Edelmam great but aging and dinged, McCourty solid, Gilmore (lets hope) and Hightower...none in the trenches IMO. I worry about NE's future and can't see how BB sufficiently upgrades a roster that is so unspectacular in the trenches this coming offseason. LT is a problem that will need to be solved, maybe in the draft...but that's just for starters. And lets be honest, FA signings are hit or miss and expensive and BB has been whiffing on too many...at least from my vantage in the nose bleed section.

2017 is all on Brady. Please stay upright ....stay pliable.....hydrate.

Please go rewatch the game with a focus on Lawrence Guy. He is held on every single Doug Martin run up the Middle was a long one because Guy was held so egregiously that only a blind person couldn't see it. And it was Guy that Martin ran by each time with no LB there to cover the gap.. But, had Guy not been held, he makes the stop in the backfield.

The D-line was missing two pieces in Valentine and Branch. You're also forgetting that Marsh is still learning the Defense and they lost Rivers, whom they expected to be a key player. You don't see any talent? Then you're not paying attention. Sorry.

What irks me is people like yourself not giving the other team credit for playing the game. Gerald McCoy is not slouch. Neither is McDonald.

The Blitz that had both ends crashing in is going to get most QBs who are in a 5 WR set. That's on Brady for not recognizing it and not getting the ball out or calling a TO prior to the play so they had someone to pick up the extra rushers..

 

[DaBruinz]

From Bedard at BSJ:

The Patriots average 37.6 net yards on punts, the second-lowest in the NFL, while punter Ryan Allen has forced just one fair catch in the entire season and is currently PFF’s lowest graded punter by a significant margin​

PFF's grading when it comes to punters is horrible. It doesn't take into consideration field position at all. When you're punting from mid-field, you're not going to have a lot of 50 yard punts..

 

[supafly]

Watching the Cleveland Browns play a football game really makes me appreciate the Patriots more.

Can't believe that Hue Jackson doesn't take the easy FG to tie the game at 10 with a full quarter to play. Instead, he goes for it on 4th and 3 because "they're 0-4 and may as well go for it." The logic is silly.

After he made the QB switch, Hogan went 16/19 for almost 200 yds and 2 touchdowns. They had a legitimate chance at winning the game yesterday, and as a matter of fact, those are the kinds of games that you NEED to win to save your job. Jackson has now lost 20/21 games where he's been the HC of the Browns.

 

[1960Pats]

You guys are right, I didn’t see that little three word blurb toward the end. So that does explain where the removed post came from. That said, I still think it certainly deserved removal, as Ken’s post is extremely lengthy and 99.9% football insight and his one tiny political three-word portion seems to have been meant as a joke and not to incite any argument. Posts like the one removed kinda have to be removed, lest we end up having this thread immediately devolve into yet another political war when the VAST majority of us here want no part in that on this site, including but not limited to its owner.

I wholeheartedly (what a great word) agree with the removal of political posts, especially since there's an outlet provided for those who want to talk on the subject. That's the reason I ignored the minor reference in the first place.