Idle thoughts - the 2 choices edition

[patfanken]

Well THAT was ugly. You have to go back to the 2014 KC game to find something THAT ugly, and for a lot of reasons the KC game was more enjoyable to watch. So here we are at the end of the season, with nothing to do for the next 2 weeks but to listen to the media pointing out what we already know, and having the pundits tell us of the impending demise of our proud franchise.

So we are left with two paths to take for the next 2 weeks. We can either give all the reasons why the losers of 4 of their last 6 games will be one and done in the playoffs. OR...we can pretend none of this is happening and it will all somehow right itself over the next 2 weeks, when missing players suddenly return to health.

First a few random observations about the game: (disclaimer- I've read nothing on the site since I shut off the TV when Tannyhill ran for the first down on 3rd and 13)

1. The OL really looks bad. I mean historically bad. So bad that it was impossible to focus on where the rush was coming from, since it seemed to be coming from everywhere. Hard to believe simply adding Volmer and Edelman, will make everything alright.

2. I liked what I saw from Stephen Jackson - there wasn't a single hole for him to run through, yet he ran hard, caught the ball well, and made progress from the Jets game.

3. I mentioned in the game thread that it was pretty clear from the game plan they ran in the first half, winning this game wasn't a huge priority. Evidence; Brady had the fewest passing attempts for a half in his career. Neither Gronk nor Amendola had any targets - Clearly the prime objective was to run the clock, shorten the game, and get out of there as quickly as possible. When they finally started to open up in the 2nd half, they couldn't suddenly turn it back on. They had no rhythm at all. Usually a cure for that would be to run a hurry up offense, but that wasn't going to happen yesterday.

4. The defense wasn't a whole lot better. Of course that is hyperbole. The defense played well at times, in spurts, but there were too many 3rd and longs that were completed. Too often 2 really good plays were followed by a bad one. I guess the really observation was the defense didn't play badly, just very inconsistently.

5 Of course the key play was another "miracle" catch that suddenly went from a potential pick to a game winning catch in the blink of an eye. And I thought those only happened in Superbowls.

6. Clearly none of the refs were watching the Dolphins run pick plays, because if they wanted to create examples of when a "pick" is illegal, they could have used at least 3 plays the Phins got away with. These weren't technical picks, these were NBA picks. Yet the only OPI of the game was against Martin, on a very artful flop by Grimes.

7. Something was missing from today's game. TO's. For the last decade, even on some really bad defenses, you could always count on the Pats creating a few TO's every game. Well this season they haven't been happening, despite this being one of the better statistical defenses in a lot of years. For some reasons, we haven't been causing TO's with the same frequency as before. Any suggestions why?

8. But the refs weren't the reason the Pats lost. Bad play, bad coaching, bad preparation. It was a full on poor effort by everyone that week. And thus ends the game observations portion of this post.

What do we now do for the next few weeks. When in the last 15 years have the Pats lost 4 of 6 games in any stretch of a season? If this is what the rest of the league's fans have to deal with, I don't like it. It makes me feel so......ordinary.

1. In one sense, I like the situation. I fully expect most of the mediots to immediately write off the Pats playoff hopes. God knows they have enough evidence to make it look good. But that will make us something we haven't been in a LOOOOONGGGGG time - Underdogs. I used to LOVE being the underdog.

2. I don't believe in "momentum" going into the playoffs. That 2010 team had plenty of "momentum". The Giants and Ravens had absolutely NO "momentum" going into their playoff runs to superbowls. Every football game is unique. Now I'm not saying that momentum doesn't play a factor in football, but it happens within each specific game.

3. So in the end, if the Pats manage to get people back, and fix the OL, NONE of what happened in the last 6 weeks will matter a wit. If not they will have to grind through those wins like they did in the early days. and they will be tough to do. But if there is a staff and players who give us as fans reason to hope, it is this one. So I suggest we "ignore the noise" and if we have to complain, do it among ourselves. It could be worse you know. We could be Jet fans.

BTW- I have to admit, that I actually wanted them to win today. I had no fear of them, but I will worry about the Steelers more. Funny how the mediots had quickly made the Jets "the most dangerous team" prior to today's games. They'll have to do some serious spinning on that topic.

Disclaimer -2 Finished this a 4am - I guess this an insomnia edition - I'm too tired to review it, so I hope it turns out....not too bad. Goodnight....or rather good morning

 

[smg93]

When I received my first college acceptance letter many moons ago, I pretty much went into "Senioritis" mode and slacked off a bit knowing that I had accomplished what I had set out to do in High School. I was ready to power down a bit before I got ready for the big move to University.

I feel like the last two weeks after getting their 12th win, the Pats seemed to be in that same mode and I hope this is just their way of re-charging before the money games ahead.

 

[VectorPrime]

Let me quote something I posted in another thread.

The o-line shouldn't be this bad. There is talent on it. Maybe not great talent but not this. Honestly, how are they this bad? Is it coaching? Scheme? It doesn't make sense. Especially since we are using Gronk as an extra blocker on tons of plays.

I cannot fathom how they are playing at such an atrocious level. It boggles the mind.

 

[supafly]

Yes, Ken--the defense's inability to cause turnovers this year is huge, and pretty much offsets the high number of sacks. By my count, we've only taken the ball away 21 times in 16 games (12 picks, 9 fumbles). That's insane.

What we're left with is basically the same as every year. A defense giving up about 20 PPG, and some yardage stats that can be skewed due to garbage time/extra drives. This year's has improved however, as the league ranking in yds allowed is down.

I don't see a stifling run defense as ours is allowing 4.1 YPC, nor do I see a stifling pass defense either. I've already shown the stats from Football Outsiders stating that we're better than most against WR1s, worse than most against WR3s, poor against RBs, and fairly average against TEs and WR2s.

Butler has made us feel much more comfortable after losing certain CBs last year, but Ryan hasn't played well lately, as our weaknesses are in the CB2 (arguably just lately, as Ryan was solid pre-Dec.) and CB3 roles. Even the safeties have looked lost and one step behind lately, whether it be McCourty, Harmon, Richards, Wilson, or even Chung at times.

 

[slash83]

Let me quote something I posted in another thread.

The o-line shouldn't be this bad. There is talent on it. Maybe not great talent but not this. Honestly, how are they this bad? Is it coaching? Scheme? It doesn't make sense. Especially since we are using Gronk as an extra blocker on tons of plays.

I cannot fathom how they are playing at such an atrocious level. It boggles the mind.

It's gotta be the fact Edelman and Lewis were quick twitch players who could and would get open within seconds. The protection didn't have to hold up since there were open receivers. Now, people are struggling to get open, Gronk is being doubled, Brady is having to hold onto the ball longer and the line isn't and can't give him time. It's simple imo.

 

[smg93]

Teams are not afraid of the current skill players. Are they covering these guys more man to man and allowing for more blitzes?

 

[slash83]

Teams are not afraid of the current skill players. Are they covering these guys more man to man and allowing for more blitzes?

Both.

 

[manxman2601]

Yes, Ken--the defense's inability to cause turnovers this year is huge, and pretty much offsets the high number of sacks. By my count, we've only taken the ball away 21 times in 16 games (12 picks, 9 fumbles). That's insane.

What we're left with is basically the same as every year. A defense giving up about 20 PPG, and some yardage stats that can be skewed due to garbage time/extra drives. This year's has improved however, as the league ranking in yds allowed is down.

I don't see a stifling run defense as ours is allowing 4.1 YPC, nor do I see a stifling pass defense either. I've already shown the stats from Football Outsiders stating that we're better than most against WR1s, worse than most against WR3s, poor against RBs, and fairly average against TEs and WR2s.

Butler has made us feel much more comfortable after losing certain CBs last year, but Ryan hasn't played well lately, as our weaknesses are in the CB2 (arguably just lately, as Ryan was solid pre-Dec.) and CB3 roles. Even the safeties have looked lost and one step behind lately, whether it be McCourty, Harmon, Richards, Wilson, or even Chung at times.

I think you're being a little harsh on Ryan and the secondary.

1. Re Ryan - It's only really the last two games where he looked weaker, games in which MCCourty's safety help was entirely missing for one game and probably limited in yesterday's. Ryan has done very well this year but he is what he is, a slot/borderline #2 CB that does need over the top help.

2. Beyond Ryan, we've got two Undrafted guys in Coleman and Leonard Johnson. I think we missed Coleman yesterday as Tannehill consistently challenged Johnson. Johnson has a bunch of heart but he is limited athletically and he's going to give up deep balls to NFL receivers. Coleman might not be the entire answer but I do think we've missed him a little these last few weeks. Tarell Brown was a big loss, and they never replaced his experience.

Going into the season with no real experience on the interior OL and limited experience at CB seemed to be mistakes pre-season, and that certainly seems to be the case now. But, providing we get Hightower, Amendola, Edelman and Vollmer at full fitness in the post-season, then I'm not unduly worried. With those guys, we certainly have the edge over the rest of the AFC and whilst I think the Seahawks, Cards and possibly Panthers are better teams right now, when it comes to a one-off game, I will still back Brady/Belichick.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm sure this point has been made but I think the game plan was to protect Gronk, White and Amendola. Gronk was barelygiven any targets over the middle and White and Amendola were barely used. Given that that's the case, what happened yesterday is hardly a surprise. Have to say though, LaFell is a big disappointment this year. We needed him to step up the last few weeks and he's failed to do that.

One other point I'd like to make is that there doesn't seem to be anyone showing leadership right now. I know that the "hurrah" approach isn't really the way the Pats do things, it's all about doing your job and things taking care of themselves. However, this team has looked flat the last two weeks, as though they're re-signed to possibly losing. I hate to say it, but this team badly needed someone to be a Cam Newton to fire the team up. I didn't see it, even from Brady, and he's usually good for a bit of fire.

Still, those two weeks are behind us now, We're onto (insert team as appropriate).

 

[Tony2046]

My novice response:

1. I felt that they wanted to win this game but put getting dinged up guys healthy as a priority.

2. I have resigned myself to thinking that the Defense will have to carry this team through the playoffs and they will have to take what they can get from the O line although I do think that having Edelman/Amendola etc...on the field changes how opposing defenses will scheme against the offense or at least give Brady more targets he has confidence in.

3. Steven Jackson !! The dude runs hard. Really impressed with his effort. Let's see if the Oline can open up some holes for him to run through.

4. Defense - I think McCourty played hurt today. Having Hightower (who might be one of the teams MVP's) and Jones back in action with two weeks of healing time will only add to the D's effectiveness in the playoffs.

5. BB - I think BB has been playing to win the season. Once he got the first round bye we started to see odd plays, formations, ST plays etc... I think he wanted his staff to build a playbook for the playoffs or at least give opposing teams plenty to look at. I also think he was putting a high priority on getting or keeping guys healthy for the playoffs.

6. Hurry up offense? - Where has it been? I think we'll see a lot more of it in the playoffs. You won't see kneel downs with a minute left on the clock.

7. O line - It's a concern. It hasn't looked good. Not sure what else to say about it. Just hoping it will get better with two weeks of healing time.

8. My tin hat - The Patriots will have to play good enough to beat the opposing team + the referees.

In end, I cannot wait for a tell all book in the future which discusses how the Patriots were handled over the last few years and during this season. If that means that I will have to eat spinach smoothies so that I live long enough to read that book, then so be it, but ever since the Denver game I have become highly suspicious about the NFL's influence on games.

 

[supafly]

I think you're being a little harsh on Ryan and the secondary.

1. Re Ryan - It's only really the last two games where he looked weaker, games in which MCCourty's safety help was entirely missing for one game and probably limited in yesterday's. Ryan has done very well this year but he is what he is, a slot/borderline #2 CB that does need over the top help.

2. Beyond Ryan, we've got two Undrafted guys in Coleman and Leonard Johnson. I think we missed Coleman yesterday as Tannehill consistently challenged Johnson. Johnson has a bunch of heart but he is limited athletically and he's going to give up deep balls to NFL receivers. Coleman might not be the entire answer but I do think we've missed him a little these last few weeks. Tarell Brown was a big loss, and they never replaced his experience.

Going into the season with no real experience on the interior OL and limited experience at CB seemed to be mistakes pre-season, and that certainly seems to be the case now. But, providing we get Hightower, Amendola, Edelman and Vollmer at full fitness in the post-season, then I'm not unduly worried. With those guys, we certainly have the edge over the rest of the AFC and whilst I think the Seahawks, Cards and possibly Panthers are better teams right now, when it comes to a one-off game, I will still back Brady/Belichick.

While we can agree that Ryan has had a fine 2015 and has really only struggled the past few games, I don't believe the secondary, run defense, or overall points allowed are that much different than most other years.

In other words, what is it that has people talking about the best defense in the past 10 years? To me, they look like the typical Bill Belichick top 10 defense which has both pluses and minuses. The sacks are up, but the all-important turnovers are way down. The CBs outside of Butler are susceptible, as you mentioned with the lack of preseason depth. The rush defense is giving up 4.1 YPC, so it's not like they're any different from most seasons.

It seems as though we can expect our defense to try and hold the opposition to around 20-21-22 points, which is usually the normal range for most Patriot defenses of late. How is that "the best defense of the last 10 years?" Just curious as to what I'm overlooking, but I think we heard the same thing last season, and at least one other season recently (maybe 2012?)

 

[luuked]

However, this team has looked flat the last two weeks, as though they're re-signed to possibly losing. I hate to say it, but this team badly needed someone to be a Cam Newton to fire the team up. I didn't see it, even from Brady, and he's usually good for a bit of fire

Like another poster said in a different thread. If you are used to specific gameplans and roles and then the coaches present you with something very passive and reactive it is difficult to be fired up about it.

 

[luuked]

In other words, what is it that has people talking about the best defense in the past 10 years? To me, they look like the typical Bill Belichick top 10 defense which has both pluses and minuses. The sacks are up, but the all-important turnovers are way down. The CBs outside of Butler are susceptible, as you mentioned with the lack of preseason depth. The rush defense is giving up 4.1 YPC, so it's not like they're any different from most seasons.

One thing you can actively control (sacks, QB hits) the other thing (turnovers) you can't. A fraction of a second more time and Collins comes up with the INT after batting the ball yesterday and sets us up deep in Miami territory. Similarly, with a little more luck Ninkovich comes up with the INT on the batted ball against Fitzpatrick last week and sets us up in FG range at the end of the tied game.

We can continue this list (we lose a muffed punt against Denver, they recover their own muffed punt...) but recovering turnovers is to a big extend luck. You don't get a chance to force fumbles on a lot of plays.

 

[supafly]

My novice respons:

1. I felt that they wanted to win this game but put getting dinged up guys healthy as a priority.

2. I have resigned myself to thinking that the Defense will have to carry this team through the playoffs and they will have to take what they can get from the O line although I do think that having Edelman/Amendola etc...on the field changes how opposing defenses will scheme against the offense or at least give Brady more targets he has confidence in.

3. Steven Jackson !! The dude runs hard. Really impressed with his effort. Let's see if the Oline can open up some holes for him to run through.

4. Defense - I think McCourty played hurt today. Having Hightower (who might be one of the teams MVP's) and Jones back in action with two weeks of healing time will only add to the D's effectiveness in the playoffs.

5. BB - I think BB has been playing to win the season. Once he got the first round bye we started to see odd plays, formations, ST plays etc... I think he wanted his staff to build a playbook for the playoffs or at least give opposing teams plenty to look at. I also think he was putting a high priority on getting or keeping guys healthy for the playoffs.

6. Hurry up offense? - Where has it been? I think we'll see a lot more of it in the playoffs. You won't see kneel downs with a minute left on the clock.

7. O line - It's a concern. It hasn't looked good. Not sure what else to say about it. Just hoping it will get better with two weeks of healing time.

8. My tin hat - The Patriots will have to play good enough to beat the opposing team + the referees.

In end, I cannot wait for a tell all book in the future which discusses how the Patriots were handled over the last few years and during this season. If that means that I will have to eat spinach smoothies so that I live long enough to read that book, then so be it, but ever since the Denver game I have become highly suspicious about the NFL's influence on games.

Not meaning to come off as negative, but I'm missing some of the positivity regarding Jackson as well.

He's averaging 2.4 yards a carry, and has only reached a total of 50 yards on 21 carries.

Where is all of this "I like what I see from Jackson" talk coming from? Since he's been here, Brandon Bolden has outrushed him with less carries and a higher average.

I don't think either one look anything close to acceptable, but maybe it's not quite as bad when we get Vollmer back.

 

[supafly]

One thing you can actively control (sacks, QB hits) the other thing (turnovers) you can't. A fraction of a second more time and Collins comes up with the INT after batting the ball yesterday and sets us up deep in Miami territory. Similarly, with a little more luck Ninkovich comes up with the INT on the batted ball against Fitzpatrick last week and sets us up in FG range at the end of the tied game.

We can continue this list (we lose a muffed punt against Denver, they recover their own muffed punt...) but recovering turnovers is to a big extend luck. You don't get a chance to force fumbles on a lot of plays.

Understood, but getting turnovers has normally been a staple of many of our seasons, so while there's no exact science to it, there has certainly been something of a pattern.

Also, citing a few "close but no cigar" examples of tipped passes, batted balls, etc can be done by any team, for any game. It doesn't really truly state why so many think that the 2015 defense is the best we've seen in years.

 

[DarrylS]

Said this in another thread, our "primary of best receiver" on the field was LaFell, who is ok, but at best he is a third, complimentary receiver and he can be neutralized.. that is an unfamiliar role for him. Amendola was pretty much a non factor, James White had one nice 63 yard catch and run.

The bread and butter for this team is the short pass and YAC, and mostly that was absent yesterday.. thus the opposing D can take different liberties, the DE's do not have to worry about coverage..

IMO this can be fixed or modified, if Edelman/Amedola are reasonably healthy.. then if our D can recover from their issues as well, it can be done.. the O line needs to be better.

There is a belief in our playoff experience and coaching which can be great equalizers..

 

[Bill Lee]

It seems to me that Belichick has been doing a lot of experimentation once it became clear we had a high playoff seeding. What happens if I do an on-side kick here? What happens if I take the wind in overtime? What happens if I just call running plays the entire first half? Sure, there's something to be learned from all of this, but IMHO it's been disruptive. I hope the experimentation pays off in the playoffs.

Where is all of this "I like what I see from Jackson" talk coming from? Since he's been here, Brandon Bolden has outrushed him with less carries and a higher average.

Bolden wasn't sitting on a couch two weeks ago. They are different style runners. Jackson is a much more powerful guy. If the OL and play calling was better, he'd be a lot better.

 

[Tony2046]

Not meaning to come off as negative, but I'm missing some of the positivity regarding Jackson as well.

He's averaging 2.4 yards a carry, and has only reached a total of 50 yards on 21 carries.

Where is all of this "I like what I see from Jackson" talk coming from? Since he's been here, Brandon Bolden has outrushed him with less carries and a higher average.

I don't think either one look anything close to acceptable, but maybe it's not quite as bad when we get Vollmer back.

I thought he made the most out of what he was given. He picked up the first down on a 3rd and 1 play by fighting for it. I haven't seen that in awhile.

You're right in that we don't have much to go on but I really like how he runs right now. I expect to see a few big runs during the playoffs.

We'll see. I've been wrong before.

 

[luuked]

Not meaning to come off as negative, but I'm missing some of the positivity regarding Jackson as well.

He's averaging 2.4 yards a carry, and has only reached a total of 50 yards on 21 carries.

Where is all of this "I like what I see from Jackson" talk coming from? Since he's been here, Brandon Bolden has outrushed him with less carries and a higher average.

I don't think either one look anything close to acceptable, but maybe it's not quite as bad when we get Vollmer back.

This OL is not built to create a running game against stacked boxes. Not sure AP or Lynch would do a lot better.

If we are able to get back to the quick passing game, opponents will have to actually cover Jules and Dola which will open up things for Gronk which both in turn will make the defenders in the box fewer and open up the run game.

Add in Vollmer who will help out in terms of communication and shore up one of the tackle positions and suddenly SJax will actually be able to get to the LOS untouched more often than not and get to do there what he does.

If we can't get the quick passing game going then nothing will matter any way.

We all have heard all of this so often but its true. There is a trickle effect to all of that.

 

[borg]

Going forward....the fate of this team rests on the success of the offensive line...pure and simple. Any team with an O line that cannot run block or pass block will not advance. Hope BB has the answer