I see 11-5 this year in a realistic look at this team

[SaCaCh]

Um ok...so we are going to be worse then last year and we will accomplish that be going 3-5 on the road? What was our road record last year? Way to go way out on a limb and search for losses only in road games. Last year we were worse at home then the road, you might want to factor that in.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think the Pats will win at least 13 games in 2007. This team is as talented as the 2003/2004 superbowl teams defensively, and arguably more talented offensively. I think your 11-5 prediction MUST be predicated on Samuel sitting out the season. I however expect him to play for the franchise tender, do his best, and try to cash in next year on the free agent bucks.

Um ok...so we are going to be worse then last year and we will accomplish that be going 3-5 on the road? What was our road record last year? Way to go way out on a limb and search for losses only in road games. Last year we were worse at home then the road, you might want to factor that in.

Last year we also had the worst FIELD conditions in the league. I think the Field Turf will make the expected performance even for both teams at Foxboro. More importantly, the Field Turf should give an advantage to our speedy new wideouts, Stallworth and Moss, and it will also aid the explosive running of Maroney to the edges. The success of the new run blocking scheme will likely aid Maroney in topping 1,200 yards rushing with around 300 receiving yards.

 

[patsox23]

The Patriots might lose to the Chargers at home, but the idea that we will lose ALL FIVE of the "tough games" besides San Diego seems really extreme. I agree that those are some of our toughtest match-ups, but why do you assume we'll lose ALL OF THEM?

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

WAY too early.
We don't know if Asante will play or not. Either way makes a big difference.
We have no clue as to which regulars go on IR by the 1st week in Sept.
We have no clue which if any vet ILB FAs will be added.
We have no clue how this years squad plays together in camp.

Forecasting after the 2nd pre-season game is a far more rational analytical exercize.

 

[VJCPatriot]

The Patriots might lose to the Chargers at home, but the idea that we will lose ALL FIVE of the "tough games" besides San Diego seems really extreme. I agree that those are some of our toughtest match-ups, but why do you assume we'll lose ALL OF THEM?

I agree, OP's rationale does not make sense. If the Patriots go 0-5 against winning/tough teams that means that they are not an elite team. The Pats need to go at least .500 or better in those tough games to prove they belong as contenders in the post season. And it is unrealistic to think the Pats won't drop at least 1 easy game as a letdown game.

I think the Pats will go at least 3-2 in the tough games and have 1 letdown loss against an easier matchup. That's my 3 losses for the season.

An 11-5 team has no chance at earning a playoff bye, and a team that loses ALL of its tough games going .000, really has no busines in the postseason as all it did was beat up on weaker teams.

The Pats need to aim for 13 wins or better to secure at least a 1st round bye and they can do this by going .500 or better against the tough teams, and still have 1 letdown loss as a margin of error.

OP's view is not a "realistic look" at the team, rather it is a pessimistic look in the worst case scenario. If the Pats drop all 5 of their tough games, they don't have a chance in the posteason as that will demonstrate that they just cannot matchup against the good teams in the league. I really doubt this preposition. With the way the Pats have stacked themselves up, unless they have a rash of injury problems, they will give any top team in the league a run for their money, and might establish themselves in a class of their own as early as midseason.

 

[Bella*chick]

So what you're saying is you don't believe they have significantly improved the team in the offseason. I look at the games you think we will lose and that's seems to be what you are saying, loud and clear.

Barring unforeseen injury, I think you are wrong.

 

[Kdo5]

Because of age,slower players and untested younger guys in our LB Corps I can see some problems in that area in the season,I can also see our secondary taking time to adjust and get in synch with each other if Asante leaves.

Those 2 areas seem to be our biggest challenges to being #1 in February although the OL and RB areas may take a bit longer to get an idea of where they lie in terms of being solid this year.

Everywhere else on this team appears to be already championship caliber and with good depth.

I look at 11-5 this season with losses to

At Jets - 1st game of the year I believe and Mangini will have his troops playing especially tough to beat,I think we lose in a squeaker,will be a great game however.

At Indy - Until we prove Indy is not as good as in recent years its tough to think we can end our losing streak to them yet until we do,as long as a guy named Manning is behind center,we are going to be in for a dogfight.

At Miami - What can you say here but no matter what crap team Miami has on the field they always find a way to beat us in Miami or make us work doubly hard to pull out a close win...Another loss down there is definately possible again.

At Baltimore - Tom has always had some problems in playing against a team with a all-pro safety and that defense is as good as it gets..However we should have a chance to win this because Baltimore's offense really is not very good but lets hope this is not one of Tom's 4 interception games he has at least once or twice a year.

At Cincinnati - Just basing this on the thought that Cincinnati's defense appears a bit better this year with some of their aquisitions and can't see them play any worse at home than they did against us last year,not likely to happen again,I could see us losing this one in a high scoring shootout,Then again we could just as easily win it too.

There you have it ,I think those 5 Games are the ones we need to worry about and where I think we will lose,most being close losses and all of those on the road - I see us undefeated at home this year - That makes us 11-5 and still division champs but no cakewalk by any means in the AFC.

16-0? Perfect Season? - Don't make me laugh guys

We go 12-4 last year and we improve the team drastically and apparently next year we drop to 11-5?

Hello???

 

[BradyManny]

WAY too early.
We don't know if Asante will play or not. Either way makes a big difference.
We have no clue as to which regulars go on IR by the 1st week in Sept.
We have no clue which if any vet ILB FAs will be added.
We have no clue how this years squad plays together in camp.

Forecasting after the 2nd pre-season game is a far more rational analytical exercize.

Sure, I think all of that is valid.

But let's say we add...Adalius Thomas, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Brandon Meriweather, Kyle Brady, Sammy Morris, Kelley Washington...and only lose Graham and Dillon...how do you realistically think this team is only an 11-5 team no matter the schedule? Every game in the NFL is tough...but this team was 4 yards from a Super Bowl berth last season and has only gotten a hell of a lot better.

 

[harveyw]

Because of age,slower players and untested younger guys in our LB Corps I can see some problems in that area in the season,I can also see our secondary taking time to adjust and get in synch with each other if Asante leaves.

Those 2 areas seem to be our biggest challenges to being #1 in February although the OL and RB areas may take a bit longer to get an idea of where they lie in terms of being solid this year.

Everywhere else on this team appears to be already championship caliber and with good depth.

I look at 11-5 this season with losses to

At Jets - 1st game of the year I believe and Mangini will have his troops playing especially tough to beat,I think we lose in a squeaker,will be a great game however.

At Indy - Until we prove Indy is not as good as in recent years its tough to think we can end our losing streak to them yet until we do,as long as a guy named Manning is behind center,we are going to be in for a dogfight.

At Miami - What can you say here but no matter what crap team Miami has on the field they always find a way to beat us in Miami or make us work doubly hard to pull out a close win...Another loss down there is definately possible again.

At Baltimore - Tom has always had some problems in playing against a team with a all-pro safety and that defense is as good as it gets..However we should have a chance to win this because Baltimore's offense really is not very good but lets hope this is not one of Tom's 4 interception games he has at least once or twice a year.

At Cincinnati - Just basing this on the thought that Cincinnati's defense appears a bit better this year with some of their aquisitions and can't see them play any worse at home than they did against us last year,not likely to happen again,I could see us losing this one in a high scoring shootout,Then again we could just as easily win it too.

There you have it ,I think those 5 Games are the ones we need to worry about and where I think we will lose,most being close losses and all of those on the road - I see us undefeated at home this year - That makes us 11-5 and still division champs but no cakewalk by any means in the AFC.

16-0? Perfect Season? - Don't make me laugh guys

Why did I just read this? I should have stopped after the first line. Go away Borges

 

[shmessy]

We go 12-4 last year and we improve the team drastically and apparently next year we drop to 11-5?

Hello???

That sums up my reaction to the original post, also.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

This will be by far the best Patriots team put on the field. Should be better than the '03 and '04 seasons. Maroney is going to explode, good luck defending Moss, Stallworth, Watson and Tom Brady is one of the best QB's in the game. We have seen what Tom has done with decent recivers in the past and now he is given elite recievers to throw to. The defense should be very good as well but the potential loss of Samuel could hurt. They will storm out the gates and blow out the Jets again in the Meadowlands. The Jets will have lots of trouble with their rookie DB's defending Moss and Stallworth. Barring any major injuries, the Pats should pull of a 13-3 season.

 

[Oswlek]

I'm not sure were you get those 11 wins. Look at that schedule, man! I'll be happy if NE makes it through the year without any casualties.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I'll give you Miami just because..

But Cincy isn't beating us!

The Jets won't beat us, they were coming off of a bye last year and add in the injuries and weather and they won by 3 when the Pats were also playing there worse ball. That is 2 wins this year.

Indy..Maybe but who is going to cover the Pats receivers? A few rookies and Bob Sanders? I doubt it! And if by some miracle they do shut down the passing game it will take at least a Nickel package, but more likely the Dime so who is going to come up and stuff Maroney?

Baltimore has no offense and it won't get better this year. They are one of the two teams that fall out of the playoff field this year IMO.

You leave out the Chargers and Steelers but toss in the Bengals and Jets? I think 13-3 / 14-2 is a realistic expectation but anything less than 12 is just being conservative (barring an injury to one key individual). You honestly think the Pats will go 3-5 on the road? They were 7-1 on the road last year, 8-2 if you include the playoffs. They will not have a losing road record.

I don't think they will go 16-0 but 11-5 kind of makes me chuckle.

:agree:

When I opened this thread I was expecting this to be a bump of a woe is me thread from pre free agency...

 

[brdmaverick]

Pats will go 14-2 this year with losses......

at home against SD (second game of year, Pats receivers will not be completely in sync with Brady)

and at Miami (yes, again)

 

[pheenix11]

I love people who go through an NFL schedule and predict a record based on gems like "I think we lose in a squeaker,will be a great game however".

Since you obviously have a crystal ball can you please tell me the final score between the Pats and Jets at Gillette in 2019?

You have about as good a chance of predicting that as you do how a game will go 4 months from now.

Reminds me of this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAs6TDLuKgQ

 

[PATRIOT64]

12-4 looks most probable to me,only worse if a major star on this team like Brady or Seymour go down

 

[Pat_the_Patriot]

instead of superbowl or bust I think first round bye or bust should be our motto right now, the first round bye was key in every year we went to the superbowl, anyone can beat a scrub wild card team at home, homefield is needed in the divisional round (and optimal in the ccg)

:agree: Yes. While I think that 11 -5 is quite an impressive record for most teams, in most seasons, we're going to have to line our math up with a first round bye. If it takes 12 -4 to get that done, then that's what we'll have to shoot for.... 13 -3 (gulp), then that's what we'll have to shoot for. If we somehow get homefield throughout early, I think that we should look for some players to get rested at that point. I don't believe that any team will go undefeated in this league in the near future. First round bye has to be our overall goal at this point!

 

[desi-patsfan]

16 and 0 to the superbowl. That's as likely as the pats losing to the jets in game 1.

 

[Jacky Roberts]

13-3. Loss at Miami, and two other stupid losses.

 

[patsfan13]

Since this will be referenced, barring a bunch on injuries I expect a 17-2 season.