I hate to say i told you so

[mgcolby]

So by all measures that mean anything this team is a top ten defense. So irregardless of what people's eyes tell them this is a good defense in comparison to the other 31 teams in 2016, which is the only comparison that matters.

In the chart below it is sorted by PPG, 2nd column is Yards Per Point - which is how many yards did the offense have to move to score 1 point this will account for offensive turnovers as well as well as good or bad starting field position in relevance to scoring.

3rd column is Points Per Drive, which will account for turnovers, poor offensive performance etc....
4th column is Points Per Drive ranking

 

[Ring 6]

So by all measures that mean anything this team is a top ten defense. So irregardless of what people's eyes tell them this is a good defense in comparison to the other 31 teams in 2016, which is the only comparison that matters.

In the chart below it is sorted by PPG, 2nd column is Yards Per Point - which is how many yards did the offense have to move to score 1 point this will account for offensive turnovers as well as well as good or bad starting field position in relevance to scoring.

3rd column is Points Per Drive, which will account for turnovers, poor offensive performance etc....
4th column is Points Per Drive ranking

All stats, when it comes to football, are misleading.
Points per drive sounds like a good stat that would tell you something. But then you realize it is as much scheme as it is quality of play. All things equal, and aggressive scheme will get off the field faster either by a stop or by a quicker score. Therefore an aggressive scheme, with equal success to a conservative one would misleading be 'better' in points per drive.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

Untrue thread
You relish telling us
Admit it

"I hate to say I told you so"...by starting a thread about it. Must have been gut wrenching to start this thread.

Regards,
Chris

 

[mgcolby]

All stats, when it comes to football, are misleading.
Points per drive sounds like a good stat that would tell you something. But then you realize it is as much scheme as it is quality of play. All things equal, and aggressive scheme will get off the field faster either by a stop or by a quicker score. Therefore an aggressive scheme, with equal success to a conservative one would misleading be 'better' in points per drive.

I think misleading is not quite how I would describe stats. Because on their own they are not necessarily misleading by themselves. They can be manipulated. But my point is compared to the other top 10 scoring defenses they are right on par in both YPP, actually have one of the best in the league are allowing the 10th most points per drive. Its not the doom and gloom the chicken littles will tell you it is.

I use a formula for spread predictor that relies heavily on Offense YPP and Defense YPP and it picks winners against the spread at a 60% average every year. And there are many games where I would pick against it if I were picking the game based on my "eye test" (assuming no major injuries, weather etc...).

 

[BobDigital]

OK I had to respond to this paragraph.
So your idea is that you can educate Bill Belichick about zone concepts, and the answer is that players should leave their zone to go cover a guy in someone elses zone? And the reason you do this is because someone else will leave their zone to cover yours?
Seriously?

No. It is about instead of playing back when no one is behind you just close on the guy instead of being a slave to being in your spot. So many times i have seen players just sit in their spot when they had nothing to defend behind them instead of being more aggressive. It is the difference between playing a system and playing the game.

 

[BobDigital]

The biggest problem is this team has the greatest HC of all time, who may also be the greatest defensive mind of all time, and the fan base hates his philosophy of defense.
I don't have to think too long to realize who is wrong in that dispute.

Not at all what I said. Bill is the best coach of all time but that doesn't mean he is perfect nor is a perfect style possible of course. I think his style of coaching leads to its positives and negatives. For all his positives this is one of the negatives IMO.

I would not trade him for anyone but IMO to be the most effective he can be it would involve a situation like 2000 when he takes over a team's of players who already learned to play the game reactionary and on instincts and teaching them to play this style and with how he sees the game.

If you go the opposite of BB you might get a guy like Rex Ryan who is emotional and "get after them and make a play". That can be good but it leads to undisciplined play which is also bad.

Does that make sense to you now?

 

[deroc5050]

They sputtered for 2 quarters yesterday because Tom and Jules wanted to show off in front of their home town. Unfortunately for them they didn't execute all that well considering Jules was targeted 17 times. I would have liked to see Jules targeted 10 times and give bennet 5 more looks.

I thought it was the worst over all game they played since TB has been back. At least offensively. Defensively they took care of business for the most part. With that said TB made some incredible plays.. some of the best of the season.


Did you catch the Green Bay game LMAO!! Talk about Defense.

 

[fightingirish595]

They lost in the SB by 4 points that year. If Welker makes that catch, that team, with THAT defense, wins a SB. If you don't think this team is better, on both sides of the ball, than that 2011 team, then you're just blindly hating on the 2016 team for no reason.

Brady and Belichick are the equalizers. The only two guys that can actually get that far without a running game and\or defense. Its different year to year, but if they could be a minute away with no running game or defense that year, They could have one it. But for me personally its hard for me to be confident. In 2014 I was confident. Last Year I was confident. This year not so much but we are number one in the standings in the AFC. And you can not be better than that going into week 12

 

[Kdo5]

If the defense gives up 31 points, 428 yards, and allows the opponent 32:39 TOP in the Divisional round, they will have performed no worse than the 2014 SB winning defense did.

You have no idea how the rest of the season will go down or how each unit will have to perform in each playoff game in order for the team to win. The aforementioned defensive stats would usually result in a loss far more often than not. But we've got the GOAT on offense, and as long as we're healthy, we always have a great chance of winning a SB.

Thing about the 2014 post season defense is that they came through in crunch time, particularly the Ravens game but holding them to a FG in the fourth quarter and coming away with the big INT by Harmon.

Our defense this year has been below average at best at getting turnovers and big plays. I really really hope we can turn it around. Our offense is the real deal. If we could start getting turnovers this offense could very likely be scoring 40+ points in games.

However, week in and week out we watch our defense bend all the way down the field, keeping the GOAT off the field for extended periods of time.

 

[TPL]

= I don't care. I can't stand it?

 

[Ring 6]

I think misleading is not quite how I would describe stats. Because on their own they are not necessarily misleading by themselves. They can be manipulated. But my point is compared to the other top 10 scoring defenses they are right on par in both YPP, actually have one of the best in the league are allowing the 10th most points per drive. Its not the doom and gloom the chicken littles will tell you it is.

I use a formula for spread predictor that relies heavily on Offense YPP and Defense YPP and it picks winners against the spread at a 60% average every year. And there are many games where I would pick against it if I were picking the game based on my "eye test" (assuming no major injuries, weather etc...).

Statistically modeling predictions at a 60% rate and judging a team or unit with stats are different things though.

 

[Ring 6]

No. It is about instead of playing back when no one is behind you just close on the guy instead of being a slave to being in your spot. So many times i have seen players just sit in their spot when they had nothing to defend behind them instead of being more aggressive. It is the difference between playing a system and playing the game.

And you think that bill belichick, Matt Patricia and the patriot players think they are supposed to stand on a spot regardless of what happens and that they are doing there job by standing in the middle of their zone oblivious to the play?

 

[Batman]

Just a quick comparison for reference. Arizona played this same San Fran team last week at home, and gave up more points, slightly fewer yards (299 to 281), but more passing yards, and had a worse 3rd down defensive rate. Not that one game means anything, but if we're going to discount what the Patriots were able to do against a subpar team on the road, it's only fair to say they did better than one of the five teams you listed, just a week ago. As good a one-to-one comparison as we can get in the NFL.

This was pretty much the exact response I was lining up.

The objective of the game is to score more than your opposition. If we're only talking about stopping them scoring our D is 3rd best at that. You can give you 1000 yards a game and not lose if you stop people at the 1. I would like to see us get more turnovers but if we keep teams punting and not scoring I'm happy.

 

[Ring 6]

Not at all what I said. Bill is the best coach of all time but that doesn't mean he is perfect nor is a perfect style possible of course. I think his style of coaching leads to its positives and negatives. For all his positives this is one of the negatives IMO.

Every decision and scheme sacrifices something.
You ar saying you think you have a better way then BB. Or that you do not understand that dynamic.

I would not trade him for anyone but IMO to be the most effective he can be it would involve a situation like 2000 when he takes over a team's of players who already learned to play the game reactionary and on instincts and teaching them to play this style and with how he sees the game.

I think this is ridiculous. You are implying that the best way to run your system is with guys who won't play it. That's just not sensible.

If you go the opposite of BB you might get a guy like Rex Ryan who is emotional and "get after them and make a play". That can be good but it leads to undisciplined play which is also bad.

Does that make sense to you now?

Belichick will not give up the big play in order to get the big play. That had proven a successful philosophy. Rex Ryan has proven to not be successfull.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Are there some concerns, of course, there are always concerns with every team every year, however the idea they can't win it all with this team is idiotic. Look around the league and you will find issues with every team but overall Seattle and New England are the two best teams, people can point to the Cowboys but when was the last time a team led by two rookies did anything in the postseason? KC looked good but then they lost to a Tampa Bay, and Oaklands pass defense is atrocious. Arizona,Pitt, and Baltimore are all .500 teams and Atlanta is fading fast. .The Patriots aren't perfect but they are the best team in the AFC and have an excellent shot at winning another Lombardi.

 

[1960Pats]

No team can ever say they feel confident giving up that amount but with 2014 team, there was a feel that they could get the job done. The 2016 defense feels like the 2011 one that let the Giants do them over again.

The 2011 Giants scored 43 points plus a safety in the two Pats games and the Pats scored 37. That looks more like a problem for the offense.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Thing about the 2014 post season defense is that they came through in crunch time, particularly the Ravens game but holding them to a FG in the fourth quarter and coming away with the big INT by Harmon.

Our defense this year has been below average at best at getting turnovers and big plays. I really really hope we can turn it around. Our offense is the real deal. If we could start getting turnovers this offense could very likely be scoring 40+ points in games.

However, week in and week out we watch our defense bend all the way down the field, keeping the GOAT off the field for extended periods of time.

Seattle and Minnesota's defense spends more time on the field per game than the Pats.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

This team sucks..8-2 is awful...we allow so many PPG....all hope is lost...on to training camp

 

[TPL]

I actually read every post of this thread to see if anyone referenced "I don't care, I can't stand it"

This is pretty much the 2016 version of that thread.

So did I but I missed yours.

 

[StockingAnarchyNumber12]

Okay. We get it!

Complaining is fine, but mentioning it every minute grows annoying.