I don't get why people think the Pats can offer Garoppolo money to sit & wait for Brady to retire

[IllegalContact]

This is right on the money, for my money (and Kraft's, I reckon)

There's only one instance where the pats have no chance of succeeding in the playoffs

No Brady and no garoppolo

 

[maineman209]

Seems fair to say that JG is not an elite QB. At least, not yet. Maybe never. No way to know at this point.

From what I've seen, JG seems to be a very good QB by NFL standards, and the best #2QB behind Brady since Bledsoe. He also seems to be the best chance the Pats have of being able to continue winning enough to get to (and through) the post-season, if (God forbid) Brady were to get injured.

Obviously, such guys are rare. Rare enough that the odds of the Pats finding another like him in the 2018 or 2019 draft are exceedingly small even with a top-5 pick in the draft. No knock on Brissett, here, but I saw JG at Camp practice as a rookie and Brissett wasn't even close to that level this year.

One of the things that makes JG (or any NFL player) really good is his competitive fire. He may not wear his competitiveness on his shirtsleeve to quite the extreme that Brady does, but it kinda has to be there or JG wouldn't have gotten as far as he has, especially not with the Pats. It seems a safe assumption that JG wants to become a winning QB in his own right somewhere, and soon. IOW, I agree that JG will NOT want to sit on the bench for another however-many years before Brady is no longer the Pats starting QB. This has nothing to do with the money, because JG knows he's going to get paid beginning in 2018, regardless.

However, he also must know that, if he ends up with a franchise that has crappy ownership, crappy coaching, crappy offensive and defensive game plans, that it's not going to matter how many talented, early-round draft picks he's surrounded by. It's going to be very difficult for him to be successful. He may be their unrivaled starter/franchise QB, but how much is that really worth to him if the situation itself is an obstacle to winning? If JG is truly a guy who can take over for Brady, a guy who has that same competitive fire, simply starting and playing won't be enough for him. Ever.

Here's the thing.

I'm not certain that JG's choice absolutely must be the conventional binary one - sitting on the bench behind Brady until Brady declines/"falls of a cliff" OR going elsewhere to be the starter next year or the year after.

But, are BB or the Krafts known for being conventional? Have they kept this winning streak going by being conventional? Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

So, maybe there's an unconventional way to handle this - by easing JG in as the starter over the remaining term of Brady's contract (through 2019), or even beyond.

Sure, Brady is in amazing shape for his age and has shown no sign of decline. In fact, all his per-game stats have actually improved year-over-year for the past four seasons. However, the odds against him being able to keep this up increase a bit every year, no matter how hard he works or how well he takes care of himself. That's just reality. Brady knows this. BB knows this. The Krafts know this.

Brady missed four starts this year and looked great the rest of the way. What if he gives up another four starts to JG in 2017? And maybe six in 2018? Wouldn't this actually help extend Brady's winning career? Wouldn't this also help JG develop, possibly even into an elite QB?

Would the fact that a starting QB transition has never been handled this way before be an obstacle? Why?

Would Brady accept a time share like this? Would it be enough to keep JG around for awhile? Can BB (and Brady and JG) figure out a way to make it affordable under the cap?

We can only speculate. But it seems worth considering, at least.

 

[Thelonious]

Seems fair to say that JG is not an elite QB. At least, not yet. Maybe never. No way to know at this point.

From what I've seen, JG seems to be a very good QB by NFL standards, and the best #2QB behind Brady since Bledsoe. He also seems to be the best chance the Pats have of being able to continue winning enough to get to (and through) the post-season, if (God forbid) Brady were to get injured.

Obviously, such guys are rare. Rare enough that the odds of the Pats finding another like him in the 2018 or 2019 draft are exceedingly small even with a top-5 pick in the draft. No knock on Brissett, here, but I saw JG at Camp practice as a rookie and Brissett wasn't even close to that level this year.

One of the things that makes JG (or any NFL player) really good is his competitive fire. He may not wear his competitiveness on his shirtsleeve to quite the extreme that Brady does, but it kinda has to be there or JG wouldn't have gotten as far as he has, especially not with the Pats. It seems a safe assumption that JG wants to become a winning QB in his own right somewhere, and soon. IOW, I agree that JG will NOT want to sit on the bench for another however-many years before Brady is no longer the Pats starting QB. This has nothing to do with the money, because JG knows he's going to get paid beginning in 2018, regardless.

However, he also must know that, if he ends up with a franchise that has crappy ownership, crappy coaching, crappy offensive and defensive game plans, that it's not going to matter how many talented, early-round draft picks he's surrounded by. It's going to be very difficult for him to be successful. He may be their unrivaled starter/franchise QB, but how much is that really worth to him if the situation itself is an obstacle to winning? If JG is truly a guy who can take over for Brady, a guy who has that same competitive fire, simply starting and playing won't be enough for him. Ever.

Here's the thing.

I'm not certain that JG's choice absolutely must be the conventional binary one - sitting on the bench behind Brady until Brady declines/"falls of a cliff" OR going elsewhere to be the starter next year or the year after.

But, are BB or the Krafts known for being conventional? Have they kept this winning streak going by being conventional? Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

So, maybe there's an unconventional way to handle this - by easing JG in as the starter over the remaining term of Brady's contract (through 2019), or even beyond.

Sure, Brady is in amazing shape for his age and has shown no sign of decline. In fact, all his per-game stats have actually improved year-over-year for the past four seasons. However, the odds against him being able to keep this up increase a bit every year, no matter how hard he works or how well he takes care of himself. That's just reality. Brady knows this. BB knows this. The Krafts know this.

Brady missed four starts this year and looked great the rest of the way. What if he gives up another four starts to JG in 2017? And maybe six in 2018? Wouldn't this actually help extend Brady's winning career? Wouldn't this also help JG develop, possibly even into an elite QB?

Would the fact that a starting QB transition has never been handled this way before be an obstacle? Why?

Would Brady accept a time share like this? Would it be enough to keep JG around for awhile? Can BB (and Brady and JG) figure out a way to make it affordable under the cap?

We can only speculate. But it seems worth considering, at least.

Good stuff. I'm not convinced it's likely, but I am convinced it just might be brought up by someone important enough to bring such stuff up! As to how Brady might respond, that's really murky to me. Or maybe Drew is looking for a remarkably limber partner at the vineyard.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Given Brady's time at UMich I don't believe for a second he would be willing to do anything like this.

 

[Rob0729]

Keeping Steve Young around, while Joe Montana is still capable of being Joe Montana, is not a waste of money. The question is whether or not the Patriots believe JAG can be Steve Young.

You have to remember that Steve Young was under contract when the 49ers paid for him. And when they finally gave him a deal as a back up to Montana, Montana was already having back issues and was declining.

 

[Rob0729]

What I don't get is the hardon people get over whatever draft picks the pats might get for trading him

Starting QB is 40......it doesn't matter how much you want to believe he's got 3-4 more years, you'd have to be a certifiable moron to not have a workable qb on the bench....the same kind of moron who would complain about a lack of a backup when said 40 year old has a problem

The Pats can get a capable back up. I wouldn't mind Ryan Fitzpatrick who can do his Fitzmagic for a few games. I wouldn't want him as a fulltime starter though.

Passing on the 16th pick in the draft plus other high picks to have a back up for Brady is a little silly. Dak Prescott showed you can find a more than capable rookie back up beyond the first round in the draft.

 

[Simpelton]

Start for the Texans in 2017 or wait to start for the Pats in 2019? If I am Garoppolo, I am checking the real estate market in Houston.

And people need to remember, Belichick is going to be 65 in a month. If Garoppolo has to wait 2-3 years to start here, how many years will be starting for Belichick? One? Two? Three?

People need to stop thinking that this is the only place where Garoppolo could win Lombardi trophies.

I actually have some confidence that Belichick will leave a good organization behind him, it may lack his genius, but it's not likely to be utterly inept. Especially if Patricia, rather than McDaniels, winds up in charge. No disrespect for McD, but I really didn't like how he handled things in Denver and I think that Patricia is a better guy to be in overall charge of a team than McD is.

 

[Deus Irae]

You have to remember that Steve Young was under contract when the 49ers paid for him. And when they finally gave him a deal as a back up to Montana, Montana was already having back issues and was declining.

JAG is under contract now, and Brady is going to be 40 years old.

 

[Deus Irae]

OK, the JAG saga needs another thread, with a poll.

 

[Rob0729]

I actually have some confidence that Belichick will leave a good organization behind him, it may lack his genius, but it's not likely to be utterly inept. Especially if Patricia, rather than McDaniels, winds up in charge. No disrespect for McD, but I really didn't like how he handled things in Denver and I think that Patricia is a better guy to be in overall charge of a team than McD is.

Maybe, maybe not. But by the time Garoppolo becomes a starter if he stayed here, Hue Jackson might have built a perennial Super Bowl contender in Cleveland with Garoppolo.

 

[Simpelton]

Given Brady's time at UMich I don't believe for a second he would be willing to do anything like this.

On the other hand, Brady's response might just be exactly the same as it was when he was fighting for his role against Drew Henson -- putting pressure on Brady to fight to keep his job has traditionally been a ticket to having the best possible Brady you can get.

Brady knows that if Jimmy G stays it's because the Patriots are deciding both whether and when to trandition to the new kid. And he will respond in Tom Brady fashion, by working his ass off to keep his job. I'm not saying he ever "got comfortable" and became complacent, but if history is any indication, if you want to see Brady take it to the next level, give him competition for his job and watch what happens.

 

[Rob0729]

JAG is under contract now, and Brady is going to be 40 years old.

Still a different situation. As pointed out, there was no cap back then. And as I pointed out, to keep Garoppolo on the bench for the next two to three year you are going to have to pay him $16-18 million a year at least. Sure they have cap room this year, but they will kill their cap structure in the future by doing it.

 

[Simpelton]

Maybe, maybe not. But by the time Garoppolo becomes a starter if he stayed here, Hue Jackson might have built a perennial Super Bowl contender in Cleveland with Garoppolo.

The flaw in that argument is contained in the third and fourth word from the end of the quoted statement.

"in Cleveland."

"A perennial Superbowl contender" I can buy. "In Cleveland?" Yeah lol holy hell no. It's been decades since anyone in the Browns organization was competent enough to produce a team that won more games than it lost more often than not, much less a perennial contender or a Superbowl winner. They're just not SMART enough in Cleveland. It would take an organizational sea change to make me think that Cleveland is going to be the next great NFL franchise and I just don't see the organization as capable of evolving in that way.

Nice try though,.

Now put Garoppolo with the Texans and that's another matter. The Texans organization has done pretty well despite questionmarks at the quarterback position for years now, clearly the ownership knows at least one thing about football and may be able to put enough good pieces together at the same time to win something if the right QB comes along. Denver? same. Chicago? Eh maybe. Hell, the Dolphins or Bills are at least capable more than one good year in a row at times.

Cleveland?

 

[Deus Irae]

Still a different situation. As pointed out, there was no cap back then. And as I pointed out, to keep Garoppolo on the bench for the next two to three year you are going to have to pay him $16-18 million a year at least. Sure they have cap room this year, but they will kill their cap structure in the future by doing it.

Every situation is going to be different, because every person is different. Beyond that, it's essentially the same. You know this. I'm pointing out reasonable, theoretically possible, alternatives, not making a particular argument for or against any one position. Quit being an ass about it.

 

[Rob0729]

Every situation is going to be different, because every person is different. Beyond that, it's essentially the same. You know this. Quit being an ass about it.

It isn't essentially the same. Completely different situation. Montana was clearly on the decline. Brady is not. Young is got paid a top of the market deal to be a back up. We have no clue if Garoppolo will get anything close to that.

 

[XLIX]

My "logic" "taken one step further" is no longer my logic.

All I did was take your reasoning and extend it to a 7 year period instead of a 2 year period, but it is still the same reasoning. Sometimes showing the absurdity of an individual's argument is best accomplished by applying the same principle to an exaggerated case.

At any moment in time, the Patriots do not look at past contracts when determining what to pay Garoppolo going forward. For example, if he was a free agent right now, they wouldn't say "we paid him $1 million each of the past 3 years, so we can pay him $25 million each of the next 3 years and that's a great deal because that comes out to only $13 million per year for 6 years!!"

This example is EXACTLY what you are suggesting the Patriots do during the 2018 offseason. The only difference is you are using a 2 year timeframe instead of 6 years. You are literally suggesting they franchise Garoppolo and justify it by saying "well we only paid him $1 million in 2017 so we can pay him $23 million this year and look at it as a 2 year, $24 million contract which is very reasonable."

Reductio ad absurdum is far more often a fallacy than a legitimate mode of argument, as you amply demonstrate. (Sorry, taught philosophy for 25 years and have grown irremediably insufferable over that time.)

Stick to philosophy because you sure as sh*t don't understand math, economics or football.

 

[Rob0729]

The flaw in that argument is contained in the third and fourth word from the end of the quoted statement.

"in Cleveland."

"A perennial Superbowl contender" I can buy. "In Cleveland?" Yeah lol holy hell no. It's been decades since anyone in the Browns organization was competent enough to produce a team that won more games than it lost more often than not, much less a perennial contender or a Superbowl winner. They're just not SMART enough in Cleveland. It would take an organizational sea change to make me think that Cleveland is going to be the next great NFL franchise and I just don't see the organization as capable of evolving in that way.

Nice try though,.

Now put Garoppolo with the Texans and that's another matter. The Texans organization has done pretty well despite questionmarks at the quarterback position for years now, clearly the ownership knows at least one thing about football and may be able to put enough good pieces together at the same time to win something if the right QB comes along. Denver? same. Chicago? Eh maybe. Hell, the Dolphins or Bills are at least capable more than one good year in a row at times.

Cleveland?

You do realize there was a time when if you suggested the Pats win one Super Bowls, never mind five, would get the same laugh reaction you had about Cleveland? You seem too young to remember the Rod Rust/**** McPhearson eras.
Oakland has been able to do the impossible and become a legitimate AFC Super Bowl contender with a solid QB. Why can't Cleveland do the same?

 

[XLIX]

JAG is under contract now, and Brady is going to be 40 years old.

And Brady is the greatest QB of all time playing as well as he ever has in his career and Garoppolo is a complete unknown.

 

[patsfanboy]

I'm 100% in the keep Jimmy G boat, so if that comes to be, the issue becomes next year. The issue then becomes keep him or not.

I don't see we letting him go next year, I see him either being traded or staying, but if we'd likely get a 3rd compensatory pick.

Now we have set the price for Jimmy and it has been set quite high, so if we don't tag him, he will lose value. This is a gamble with high risk, high reward.

The other option that no one is discussing is the possibility to place a first round tender on him, so we'd likely get a first round pick.

 

[IllegalContact]

The Pats can get a capable back up. I wouldn't mind Ryan Fitzpatrick who can do his Fitzmagic for a few games. I wouldn't want him as a fulltime starter though.

Passing on the 16th pick in the draft plus other high picks to have a back up for Brady is a little silly. Dak Prescott showed you can find a more than capable rookie back up beyond the first round in the draft.

using this argument would have the pats make a deal to get the 199th pick each year to draft a QB will yield and endless list of Tom Bradys

It's really horrible logic.....

Ladies and gentlemen....the 16th pick in the draft

2016 Taylor Decker Lions 1 16 16 T Ohio State
2015 Kevin Johnson Texans 1 16 16 DB Wake Forest
2014 Zack Martin Cowboys 1 16 16 T Notre Dame
2013 E.J. Manuel Bills 1 16 16 QB Florida State
2012 Quinton Coples Jets 1 16 16 DE North Carolina
2011 Ryan Kerrigan Redskins 1 16 16 LB Purdue
2010 Derrick Morgan Titans 1 16 16 DE Georgia Tech
2009 Larry English Chargers 1 16 16 LB Northern Illinois
2008 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Cardinals 1 16 16 DB Tennessee State
2007 Justin Harrell Packers 1 16 16 DT Tennessee
2006 Jason Allen Dolphins 1 16 16 DB Tennessee
2005 Travis Johnson Texans 1 16 16 DT Florida State
2004 Shawn Andrews Eagles 1 16 16 T Arkansas
2003 Troy Polamalu Steelers 1 16 16 DB USC
2002 William Green Browns 1 16 16 RB Boston College
2001 Santana Moss Jets 1 16 16 WR Miami (FL)
2000 Julian Peterson 49ers 1 16 16 LB Michigan State
1999 Jevon Kearse Oilers 1 16 16 LB Florida
1998 Kevin Dyson Oilers 1 16 16 WR Utah
1997 Reidel Anthony Buccaneers 1 16 16 WR Florida
1996 Duane Clemons Vikings 1 16 16 DE California
1995 Hugh Douglas Jets 1 16 16 DE Central State (OH)
1994 Aaron Taylor Packers 1 16 16 T Notre Dame
1993 Sean Dawkins Colts 1 16 16 WR California
1992 Chester McGlockton Raiders 1 16 16 DT Clemson
1991 Dan McGwire Seahawks 1 16 16 QB San Diego State
1990 James Williams Bills 1 16 16 DB Fresno State
1989 Hart Lee Dykes Patriots 1 16 16 WR Oklahoma State
1988 Eric Kumerow