- Joined
- Sep 13, 2004
- Messages
- 72,772
- Reaction score
- 22,604
Out success in the playoffs will be absolutely unrelated to run defense STATS.
When is the last time we lost a game because of run defense?
Or put another way, when was the last time we lost that wasn't because of big plays in the passing game.
Almost never.
This is why our 2007 offense is entirely different in the playoffs than other pass oriented high scoring offenses.
You want to run to keep the O off the field? Thanks, you are playing into our hands.
Forget about the stats.
If you look at any game where our run D stats were considered suspect, here is what you find.
There are some plays, particularly in situations where it is to OUR advantage that they run, that contribute a big proportion of the run stats.
Almost NEVER can teams sustain drives against us on the ground.
This is where the 'bend dont break' talk comes from.
Naturally, if we face a running team, we want to stuff the run. However, if we play a vanilla D, against a running team, and dictate that they run, they will have a handful of good plays, but not sustain any drives unless they do it with their passing game. That will mean they must do it with their passing game on 3rd down, and we will own them.
It would be fine to see us hold the Jags to 70 yards on 30 carries, but I am just as good with them running 40 times for 170 yards. That will NOT produce many points. The reality is that neither of those are likely to happen, because we will be way out in front and they will have to throw, if either of those happen through the first 20 minutes or so of the game.
I am expecting that we stifle the run early, we get ahead, they run in some passing situations while trying to come back, and they end up with something like 22 rushes for 100 yards. (Cant account for QB scrambles though).
In the end we win by a lot, and the 'experts' say the Jags ran well, where in reality we stopped the run until we built a lead, then they piled up some stats that didnt matter.
By the way, that is basically the story of our run D performance in the 2007 season .
When is the last time we lost a game because of run defense?
Or put another way, when was the last time we lost that wasn't because of big plays in the passing game.
Almost never.
This is why our 2007 offense is entirely different in the playoffs than other pass oriented high scoring offenses.
You want to run to keep the O off the field? Thanks, you are playing into our hands.
Forget about the stats.
If you look at any game where our run D stats were considered suspect, here is what you find.
There are some plays, particularly in situations where it is to OUR advantage that they run, that contribute a big proportion of the run stats.
Almost NEVER can teams sustain drives against us on the ground.
This is where the 'bend dont break' talk comes from.
Naturally, if we face a running team, we want to stuff the run. However, if we play a vanilla D, against a running team, and dictate that they run, they will have a handful of good plays, but not sustain any drives unless they do it with their passing game. That will mean they must do it with their passing game on 3rd down, and we will own them.
It would be fine to see us hold the Jags to 70 yards on 30 carries, but I am just as good with them running 40 times for 170 yards. That will NOT produce many points. The reality is that neither of those are likely to happen, because we will be way out in front and they will have to throw, if either of those happen through the first 20 minutes or so of the game.
I am expecting that we stifle the run early, we get ahead, they run in some passing situations while trying to come back, and they end up with something like 22 rushes for 100 yards. (Cant account for QB scrambles though).
In the end we win by a lot, and the 'experts' say the Jags ran well, where in reality we stopped the run until we built a lead, then they piled up some stats that didnt matter.
By the way, that is basically the story of our run D performance in the 2007 season .
