How valuable is Seymour?

[fgssand]

You are making a value judgement based on perception. Like some others in this thread BB will not. He will take what ponyexpress attempted to do with statistics and what Box has gleaned from watching hours of mere broadcast replay and the test he puts Richard's value to will pale in comparison.

All players are subject to some level of dispassionate scrutiny every off season. Those with pending substantial contract issues that will dramatically impact the team merit the deepest analysis. In Patriot Reign it is clear that while everyone presumed Lawyer was a vital player for this teams continued success, BB challenged his staff to prove it. And much to their chagrin they could not. Coupled with his clubhouse influence and his stance on how players including himself should be concerned with their league wide perception as individual players going forward, which BB considered negative leadership, it was enough for BB to make the decision to find an alternative to his pro bowl SS.

And to discount durability in this league is real folly. BB understands that talent is admirable but it is worth nothing unless it both fits in the scheme (and in the case of a team leader that scheme extends off the field and includes working within a certain salary structure he and Pioli have developed - as Brady was willing to) and it can stay on the field. One of the things he admired about Ty Law (and his only real leadership trait) was the example he set with his determination to play hurt and ability to still play at a high level. That was what enabled BB to ignore much of Ty's financial ranting.

I know Richard has not publicly thrown down the gauntlet in so many words, but he has made it clear in a roundabout way that he wants to be paid as the best DL in the league if that is what he is perceived as throughout the league. BB will determine his value to this team based on unemotional performance based reality. If the perceptoin and reality match up, that may result in a deal. But even if they do, other valid concerns like durability and leadership on and off the field and the salary structure of the entire team will have to be weighted into any formula on which they base their best offer.

Players don't tend to view demands to pay them what they believe they are worth as breaking the bank. But the fact remains that on a team that somewhat uniquely champions the value of all 53 players to the effort, if we were paying them all what they honestly believe they are worth we'd be substantially over even an expanded cap. BB has worked hard to eliminate a culture of financial (as well as other) entitlement that existed here for many years. He's not about to let one players determination to buck that trend toss the entire teamwide philosophy out the window. It was that same type and level of determination post our first SB win that led to Lawyer's eventual unceremonious and briefly traumatic departure.

I hope they get a deal done that the team as well as Richard can live with. But if not, it's not the end of the world. Losing him won't necessarily result in Jarvis Green's ascention because Richard is an asset with marketable trade value. That pick or picks and the salary you don't have to pay him would allow the team to replace him with an upgrade over Green and perhaps further mediate any loss of production by upgrading at additional positions going forward and retaining other emerging talent as their current deals play out.

Terrific reply and I will absolutely defer to the judgements and ratings that BB & SP will come up with. They know all. Having read Patriot Reign, Management Secrets of the NEP Volume 1 and Volume 2 as well as David H's new book - it is very clear how much knowledge BB has about this game. Incredible experience, knowledge and know how is what we are lucky enough to enjoy with BB. Add Scott Pioli and the ownership situation and we really have the best of all worlds right here, right now.

As I said, I will trust 100%T in the judgement that BB makes regarding the value of Richard Seymour as a player and value he brings to this team. The trouble I had with Pony and to a lesser extent Box O - was they did not show me performance decline when RS was out of the line up. Pony did not seem to take into consideration the sacrifice to personal stats players make when they "do their jobs". This means quite often, their job is as simple as tying up two or three blockers - no glory there, no sack, no pressure, nothing that shows up as a tangible worth of a player - all the player has done is his job which leads to victory. Luckily, it does not matter what Pony shows me or Box O sees, what I think or even what anyone else thinks as BB & SP KNOW what the payers job is and if they have succeeded. They KNOW their worth and I think we will find in this case - RS will be signed, along with Branch, they are that good and that valuable to this team.

 

[Pats726]

Terrific reply and I will absolutely defer to the judgements and ratings that BB & SP will come up with. .....
As I said, I will trust 100%T in the judgement that BB makes regarding the value of Richard Seymour as a player and value he brings to this team..

A great post..I coul not agree more..My question is with timing and the ifs/when they will get a deal done.....and if they know they can not, what they will do in the draft??

 

[fgssand]

A great post..I coul not agree more..My question is with timing and the ifs/when they will get a deal done.....and if they know they can not, what they will do in the draft??

I would guess some early "tells" or indications of agreement (evidently it cannot be finalized until August) will indeed come from multiple areas - a) what we do in the draft, b) where else we begin to spend our money, c) comments made by owners, agents, coaches, players, media and other sources d) free agent signings pre and post 6/1 e) If RS normally works out in Foxboro ( i think he does), will he be sighted there soon and f) appearances in mini camp and of course training camp.

If we pay attention to all of this - we may be able to get some clues.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I would guess some early "tells" or indications of agreement (evidently it cannot be finalized until August) will indeed come from multiple areas - a) what we do in the draft, b) where else we begin to spend our money, c) comments made by owners, agents, coaches, players, media and other sources d) free agent signings pre and post 6/1 e) If RS normally works out in Foxboro ( i think he does), will he be sighted there soon and f) appearances in mini camp and of course training camp.

If we pay attention to all of this - we may be able to get some clues.

I am "very disappointed" not to have my evaluation skills lumped with BB's.

I do however, reject the notion of sigificant decline when Seymour is out of the defense. That there is a reduction in capability at the LDE position I can agree with, but teams targeting Jarvis Green the minute he comes in the game is not the case. If each of the other positions play their assignments, opposing offenses are still required to double Jarvis at the point of attack and account for him on every play. The same as they do for the other 10 players when the defense plays as a team. There is a greater drop off for Marquis Hill, but I contend an increase in playing time will sharpen his performance quite a bit, and he will prove to be as good as Ty Warren - I can live with that if necessary.

I believe the Patriots' Free Agency and cap management behavior is indicative of extensions for Seymour, among others. In order of the their value to the club; I wish to see Seymour, Graham, Branch, Koppen, Samuel, and Wilson extended. (Samuel and Wilson may be a tie.) Of these players, Graham is actually the most difficult to replace. The best blocker on the offense and a pretty reliable play making pair of hands/legs to boot. Watson still has great strides to make to replace Graham's blocking, even if he can replace his playmaking as a receiver.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Interesting analysis. I think the only flaw is that you draw a conclusion without taking into account things that are more difficult to measure, such as the impact of double-teaming or a player's intimidation and leadership value. The durability concerns you raise are, however, quite legitimate.

My take is that people who know a whole lot more about this than I do are paid to make these decisions. But, I think I'd pay Seymour what he wants, but front load his compensation against the cap next year, if I thought that 2006 was going to be more than a transition year for the patriots from an older to a younger team. If I thought we were looking beyond 06, I might save my money and spend it on a few younger players.

BTW, where did you get the data for your analysis?

 

[PonyExpress]

Interesting analysis. I think the only flaw is that you draw a conclusion without taking into account things that are more difficult to measure, such as the impact of double-teaming or a player's intimidation and leadership value. The durability concerns you raise are, however, quite legitimate.

My take is that people who know a whole lot more about this than I do are paid to make these decisions. But, I think I'd pay Seymour what he wants, but front load his compensation against the cap next year, if I thought that 2006 was going to be more than a transition year for the patriots from an older to a younger team. If I thought we were looking beyond 06, I might save my money and spend it on a few younger players.

BTW, where did you get the data for your analysis?

My source was the game log records from espn.com. As for the double teaming question, double teaming is common for impact defensive tackles. While acknowledging Seymour's greatness, we should not diminish the talent of other great players in the league. K. Williams, John Henderson, Shaun Rogers et. al. receive double teaming also.

 

[PWRxWLF]

My source was the game log records from espn.com. As for the double teaming question, double teaming is common for impact defensive tackles. While acknowledging Seymour's greatness, we should not diminish the talent of other great players in the league. K. Williams, John Henderson, Shaun Rogers et. al. receive double teaming also.

Well, it would appear that alot of other people on this thread dont understand that idea. I mean c'mon, sure RS gets DT and TT. You think the other guys on that list dont? You mean to tell me Shaun Rogers is free to do as he wishes against just one blocker? Or John Henderson doesnt make other players on his teams D better? It's all the same and RS doesnt do anything different then what these other guys do. He just fits better in our system. So he should be paid accordingly, not as the best DL in the NFL, but as the best DL on our line and under our pay structure. Also, dont throw ability to play multiple positions at me. Aside from the heavy duty guys, the rest are athletic enough to play both positions. Honestly, IMO, if RS went to any other team, I am sure his production would dramatically drop off, just like every single other player that leaves this team. BB just knows how to make them look better.

 

[Mike the Brit]

In order of the their value to the club; I wish to see Seymour, Graham, Branch, Koppen, Samuel, and Wilson extended. (Samuel and Wilson may be a tie.) Of these players, Graham is actually the most difficult to replace. The best blocker on the offense and a pretty reliable play making pair of hands/legs to boot. Watson still has great strides to make to replace Graham's blocking, even if he can replace his playmaking as a receiver.

Some love for Grahambo!

Thanks, BOR -- I agree with you completely from what I have seen.

 

[jczxohn1]

richard seymour has significant intangibles, nobody questions that. it begins with teams' hesitations about running his way. IMHO the young man can be a great player, as opposed to "just" an outstanding one (eg, warren sapp). to me's he's as significant to patriots as tom brady is on offense. they are both doing things that are HOF-type performances. if they are able to keep it up for 5 more years they might get into that ballpark. you just DON'T l let great players go, in any sport. remember carlton fisk coming back 7-8 times a season and just waxing our ***es?
the willie ray and AV situations, where the value of those aging players over a 3-4 year term, was arguable. with seymour that is not much of an issue.
the young man has knee problems because he's getting cut in most every game. i guess if the position coaches think they can get away with it, they have the OLs take some shots. the OG has a pretty good shot at him when pats are in the 3-4. i see several occasions each game where seymour is in the middle of some pushing and shoving after the play. ive suspected that's what it's about. in the nfl of even 15 years ago things like that were enforced on the field, not by the refs. i keep wondering why seymour's teammates (especially wilfork and the RILB) aren't protecting him better. it's a real mystery to me.

IMO, this is the type of situation where we really miss TJ. Also, why I hope we will draft a run-stuffing ILB to play along side Tedy. Biesel stood his ground and met OG's 4-5 yds past the LOS, Vrabel meets them half-way and hand-fights them, but Big Ted met them in the hole. They didn't have the opportunity to cut block because they had to account for him.

 

[jczxohn1]

I am "very disappointed" not to have my evaluation skills lumped with BB's.

I do however, reject the notion of sigificant decline when Seymour is out of the defense. That there is a reduction in capability at the LDE position I can agree with, but teams targeting Jarvis Green the minute he comes in the game is not the case. If each of the other positions play their assignments, opposing offenses are still required to double Jarvis at the point of attack and account for him on every play. The same as they do for the other 10 players when the defense plays as a team. There is a greater drop off for Marquis Hill, but I contend an increase in playing time will sharpen his performance quite a bit, and he will prove to be as good as Ty Warren - I can live with that if necessary.

I believe the Patriots' Free Agency and cap management behavior is indicative of extensions for Seymour, among others. In order of the their value to the club; I wish to see Seymour, Graham, Branch, Koppen, Samuel, and Wilson extended. (Samuel and Wilson may be a tie.) Of these players, Graham is actually the most difficult to replace. The best blocker on the offense and a pretty reliable play making pair of hands/legs to boot. Watson still has great strides to make to replace Graham's blocking, even if he can replace his playmaking as a receiver.

Glad to hear a vote of confidence for Marquis. He is among the youngest guys on the team. If you watched LSU walk through my OU's OL like I did the last yr he was there, you would have been impressed. It was like men against boys. I've always thought he would come around.

 

[Pats726]

I would guess some early "tells" or indications of agreement (evidently it cannot be finalized until August) will indeed come from multiple areas - a) what we do in the draft, b) where else we begin to spend our money, c) comments made by owners, agents, coaches, players, media and other sources d) free agent signings pre and post 6/1 e) If RS normally works out in Foxboro ( i think he does), will he be sighted there soon and f) appearances in mini camp and of course training camp.

If we pay attention to all of this - we may be able to get some clues.

I agree we will get indications and have an ideas about where it may be headed...especially the draft... OBVIOUSLY if they go for a big DE at 21, that would be a bit more pessimistic than a later round.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I wonder how informative those tells would be since his is signed through 2006. I think it's more the team's motivation to lock in Seymour driving the renegotiation this year, than his "desire" to avoid free agency.

PFnV

 

[fgssand]

I wonder how informative those tells would be since his is signed through 2006. I think it's more the team's motivation to lock in Seymour driving the renegotiation this year, than his "desire" to avoid free agency.

PFnV

All along it has been assumed we deal with the two scenarios:

A) Most desirable - locked up, long term and happy with a cap friendly win - win deal.

B) Least desirable - as is - contract year then franchised - with this route questionable whether he will even report and subsequent fall out has potential to split team and be very distracting. This option could lead to trade to salvage something out of the deal and end the distraction.

Look for some evidence to help determine whic way we end up. I look for scenario A....

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Well, then, from your post to God's ears...

 

[Pats726]

All along it has been assumed we deal with the two scenarios:

A) Most desirable - locked up, long term and happy with a cap friendly win - win deal.

B) Least desirable - as is - contract year then franchised - with this route questionable whether he will even report and subsequent fall out has potential to split team and be very distracting. This option could lead to trade to salvage something out of the deal and end the distraction.

Look for some evidence to help determine whic way we end up. I look for scenario A....

I agree totally!! I guess we will all have to keep looking for any small bits as to what is REALLY happening..not even tea leaves.