How High A Priority is NT?

[mgteich]

With Seymour, Wilfork and Green all likely to leave within a year, it was time to draft three players who could compete to be part of the future of the defensive line, as part of the rotation or simply as depth.

Pryor and Richard were late picks. These choices are made whenever there seems any chance at all to get a contributer. If we get one solid contributer out of a 2nd, 6th and 7th round pick, that would be par for the course. Brace may be that player. Pryor seems more likely.

With regard to NT, many of us hoped that Brace could be a top NFL NT, otherwise why draft him. That may still work out. The coaches have much more information than we do. From where I sit, it would be better to draft an additional NT if one is available,

Then what was the point of taking Brace, Pryor, and Richard this year?

 

[mgteich]

Wilfork can be allowed to negotiate with other teams. It seems very likely that a first would be secured, especially from a team that can get a handshake deal with Wilfork for a long-term contract.

I would prefer that the patriots be the team that signs Wilfork, but his contract may be more than Belichick is willing to pay. Also, I would note that Belichick would not be forced to trade Wilfork since the franchise amount is well within budget. If Cody is drafted, then such talks can be more serious.

QUOTE=OldNEPatsFan;1667393]So that means Bill will trade him for a 2nd round draft choice and throw in Derrick Burgess[/QUOTE]

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Wilfork can be allowed to negotiate with other teams. It seems very likely that a first would be secured, especially from a team that can get a handshake deal with Wilfork for a long-term contract.

I would prefer that the patriots be the team that signs Wilfork, but his contract may be more than Belichick is willing to pay. Also, I would note that Belichick would not be forced to trade Wilfork since the franchise amount is well within budget. If Cody is drafted, then such talks can be more serious.

[/QUOTE]

Would BB be willing to ship Wilfork to another AFC team? Highly doubtful.

I still think Parcells gives up the draft picks for Big Vince.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is excellent thinking! I love this post. And I agree 100%. BB NEEDS TO DRAFT MOUNT CODY!!!!!

1.) If we franchise Wilfork, history says things will get ugly and it will become a one year deal at beast and a team distraction at worst.

2.) No "if" about it, Mount Cody is the best 3-4 NT I have ever seen in college and will be a starter in the NFL from day 1,ala Mayo. Worst case scenario, he waits a year while WIlfork plays out a final season. (I doubt Wilfork would sign a one year deal, unless there is a no franchise him again next season.) Cody sucks up double teams better than anybody I have ever seen. He plays in our defense at Alabama. He knows our line calls. He allows ILBs to roam free and become playmakers. He owns the middle of the line.

3.) six foot five inches tall and over 380 pounds. And he can dunk a basketball. BB wants big athletic guys,there is NO ONE better who fits that title better than this guy.

Other posters that can not see this, need to understand that 3-4 NT's coming out of college are rare. And that the NT position is key in running a successful 3-4 defense.

This is the best case scenario. Although I think Parcells would give up two first rounders to sign Wilfork.

Mt. Cody is not a project! He is the real deal.

I have said it before and I will say it again. He is a better 3-4 NT now than Wilfork is. And Wilfork is a pro bowler. I mean no disrespect to Wilfork but that is a testament to how good Cody is.

Ochmed, you've got to calm down about Mt. Cody.

We already have arguably the best 3-4 DT in all of football, and certainly the best NT prospect to come out in the last 6 years. Saying that a college kid is "a better 3-4 NT now than Wilfork" is ludicrous. The kid hasn't played a down of professional football. He is a dominant college NT, I grant you, but you just come across as detached from reality when you argue that he's already better than Wilfork.

Why would Parcells give up 2 1st round picks for Wilfork if Mt. Cody is available and is better? It makes no sense.

I am willing to grant you that Cody is probably the best 3-4 DT prospect to come along since Wilfork in 2004. I am willing to grant you that as a run stopper he is a better prospect than Wilfork was in 2004. I'm not sure he's much of a penetrator or that he's a 3-down player like Wilfork is, but I'm sure he could be another Ted Washington in time. I am willing to grant you that keeping Wilfork for 1 year under the franchise tag is not a good long term solution, and could get ugly. And I am willing to grant you that if keeping Wilfork long term is not considered feasible by the FO for financial reasons, that franchising and trading him and drafting Cody is the best alternative scenario. But saying that we would be a better team day 1 by trading Wilfork and drafting Cody to take his place is really stretching things a bit too much.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with all your comments. And yes, Ochmed has greatly exagerrated with regard to Cody, now and in the past. However, you seem to agree that he is the best NT prospect since Wilfork.

That being said, if Wilfork isn't sign to an extension by the time of the draft, wouldn't YOU want to draft Cody at 32 (or wherever we can get Cody)? Personally, I might still keep Wilfork for the year, but the trade value might be too much to pass up.

Ochmed, you've got to calm down about Mt. Cody.

We already have arguably the best 3-4 DT in all of football, and certainly the best NT prospect to come out in the last 6 years. Saying that a college kid is "a better 3-4 NT now than Wilfork" is ludicrous. The kid hasn't played a down of professional football. He is a dominant college NT, I grant you, but you just come across as detached from reality when you argue that he's already better than Wilfork.

Why would Parcells give up 2 1st round picks for Wilfork if Mt. Cody is available and is better? It makes no sense.

I am willing to grant you that Cody is probably the best 3-4 DT prospect to come along since Wilfork in 2004. I am willing to grant you that as a run stopper he is a better prospect than Wilfork was in 2004. I'm not sure he's much of a penetrator or that he's a 3-down player like Wilfork is, but I'm sure he could be another Ted Washington in time. I am willing to grant you that keeping Wilfork for 1 year under the franchise tag is not a good long term solution, and could get ugly. And I am willing to grant you that if keeping Wilfork long term is not considered feasible by the FO for financial reasons, that franchising and trading him and drafting Cody is the best alternative scenario. But saying that we would be a better team day 1 by trading Wilfork and drafting Cody to take his place is really stretching things a bit too much.

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree with all your comments. And yes, Ochmed has greatly exagerrated with regard to Cody, now and in the past. However, you seem to agree that he is the best NT prospect since Wilfork.

If you look at possible 3-4 DT prospects taken in the past 10 years, there aren't that many outstanding ones, as Ochmed noted. 2001 was the best year by far, with Casey Hampton (16), Ryan Pickett (29), Kris Jenkins (44) and Shaun Rodgers (61). Hampton and Jenkins are probably the only legitimate guys who can challege Wilfork as the best 3-4 DT currently playing.
Wilfork was taken #21 in 2004. Otherwise, there really aren't that many other good 3-4 DTs. Possibly BJ Raji last year, but he's still developing. Haloti Ngata in 2006 would certainly count, but he's not a typical 3-4 NT. Otherwise, I'm not sure what 3-4 DT's have been taken since 2004 who would be considered top prospects? I can't really think of anyone in 2005, 2006 (other than Ngata, who is a totally different animal), 2007 or 2008.

Personally, if I had one DL to build my team around, it would be Ngata, because he can do so many things. But Wilfork is as good a "pure" 3-4 DT as there is in the NFL. And Cody seems like the best "pure" 3-4 DT prospect since Wilfork. There's buzz that some teams may consider Tennessee DT Dan Williams ahead of Cody, but I'm in agreement with Ochmed on that one.

That being said, if Wilfork isn't signed to an extension by the time of the draft, wouldn't YOU want to draft Cody at 32 (or wherever we can get Cody)? Personally, I might still keep Wilfork for the year, but the trade value might be too much to pass up.

That's a good question. A couple of thoughts:

1. IF Cody fell to the Pats' 1st round pick and there weren't any other players of equal impact at positions of need, then I think Cody would be worth taking with our 1st round pick. If we weren't able to franchise and trade Wilfork, then I would keep Wilfork for 2010 and put him at DE, with Cody in the middle and Warren at the other DE position, with Wright, Pryor and Brace for depth. I'd be quite happy to have that DL up front and then add an OG and a couple of DE/OLB prospects in the 2nd round. I think that our defense would be dramatically improved. If we can trade Wilfork, then Wright would start at DE opposite Warren, and we could use the additional 1st round pick to get an impact defender like Rolando McClain or Cameron Heyward.

2. If Cody fell to our pick along with a potential impact player at a bigger area of need (assuming we still had Wilfork tagged), then it would be a bit of a crapshoot.

3. I think it's unlikely that Cody will last until our 1st round pick, because as Ochmed points out good 3-4 DT's are rare, and several teams could use one - Miami, New York, Denver and San Diego come to mind. So we might have to trade up to get him. How far should we be willing to go if we already have Wilfork tagged? I'm not sure about the answer to that, given our other key needs.

I do feel that I would like to see us take a "blue chip" prospect (i.e., potential all pro impact players at their position) with our 1st round pick, rather than a "red chip" prospect. The guys who I consider "blue chip" defensive prospects include DT/DE Ndamukong Suh (obviuosly out of reach), S Eric Berry (out of reach and not an area of need), ILB Rolando McClain (probable trade up to the 10-15 range), CB Joe Haden (probable trade up to the 10-15 range), DE Cameron Heyward (may not declare), Cody, and possibly Carlos Dunlap. I would probably also consider RB CJ Spiller in the first round as a blue chip prospect at an area of need. Of those, Spiller, Cody, Heyward and Dunlap are the guys that I could see having a chance of slipping into the 20's. I would give any of those guys very serious consideration if they were available when we picked.

 

[mgteich]

If the key to a 3-4 defense is the NT and we are not able to come to terms with Wilfork, it would seem that NT would be en extremely needy position, given how difficult it is to find a top NT.

I see how franchising Wilfork put off the need, but there is no reason to beleive that a top NT will bea vailable to the patriots in 2011.

It would seem that if we cannot have Wilfork, Cody should be a very highly sought aftder blue chip target by the patriots, certainly higher than upgrading the ILB position.

If you look at possible 3-4 DT prospects taken in the past 10 years, there aren't that many outstanding ones, as Ochmed noted. 2001 was the best year by far, with Casey Hampton (16), Ryan Pickett (29), Kris Jenkins (44) and Shaun Rodgers (61). Hampton and Jenkins are probably the only legitimate guys who can challege Wilfork as the best 3-4 DT currently playing.
Wilfork was taken #21 in 2004. Otherwise, there really aren't that many other good 3-4 DTs. Possibly BJ Raji last year, but he's still developing. Haloti Ngata in 2006 would certainly count, but he's not a typical 3-4 NT. Otherwise, I'm not sure what 3-4 DT's have been taken since 2004 who would be considered top prospects? I can't really think of anyone in 2005, 2006 (other than Ngata, who is a totally different animal), 2007 or 2008.

Personally, if I had one DL to build my team around, it would be Ngata, because he can do so many things. But Wilfork is as good a "pure" 3-4 DT as there is in the NFL. And Cody seems like the best "pure" 3-4 DT prospect since Wilfork. There's buzz that some teams may consider Tennessee DT Dan Williams ahead of Cody, but I'm in agreement with Ochmed on that one.



That's a good question. A couple of thoughts:

1. IF Cody fell to the Pats' 1st round pick and there weren't any other players of equal impact at positions of need, then I think Cody would be worth taking with our 1st round pick. If we weren't able to franchise and trade Wilfork, then I would keep Wilfork for 2010 and put him at DE, with Cody in the middle and Warren at the other DE position, with Wright, Pryor and Brace for depth. I'd be quite happy to have that DL up front and then add an OG and a couple of DE/OLB prospects in the 2nd round. I think that our defense would be dramatically improved. If we can trade Wilfork, then Wright would start at DE opposite Warren, and we could use the additional 1st round pick to get an impact defender like Rolando McClain or Cameron Heyward.

2. If Cody fell to our pick along with a potential impact player at a bigger area of need (assuming we still had Wilfork tagged), then it would be a bit of a crapshoot.

3. I think it's unlikely that Cody will last until our 1st round pick, because as Ochmed points out good 3-4 DT's are rare, and several teams could use one - Miami, New York, Denver and San Diego come to mind. So we might have to trade up to get him. How far should we be willing to go if we already have Wilfork tagged? I'm not sure about the answer to that, given our other key needs.

I do feel that I would like to see us take a "blue chip" prospect (i.e., potential all pro impact players at their position) with our 1st round pick, rather than a "red chip" prospect. The guys who I consider "blue chip" defensive prospects include DT/DE Ndamukong Suh (obviuosly out of reach), S Eric Berry (out of reach and not an area of need), ILB Rolando McClain (probable trade up to the 10-15 range), CB Joe Haden (probable trade up to the 10-15 range), DE Cameron Heyward (may not declare), Cody, and possibly Carlos Dunlap. I would probably also consider RB CJ Spiller in the first round as a blue chip prospect at an area of need. Of those, Spiller, Cody, Heyward and Dunlap are the guys that I could see having a chance of slipping into the 20's. I would give any of those guys very serious consideration if they were available when we picked.

 

[mayoclinic]

If the key to a 3-4 defense is the NT and we are not able to come to terms with Wilfork, it would seem that NT would be en extremely needy position, given how difficult it is to find a top NT.

I see how franchising Wilfork put off the need, but there is no reason to beleive that a top NT will bea vailable to the patriots in 2011.

It would seem that if we cannot have Wilfork, Cody should be a very highly sought aftder blue chip target by the patriots, certainly higher than upgrading the ILB position.

I agree that if the FO does not believe we can keep Wilfork long term, we need a replacement. How badly depends to some extent on how much confidence the FO has in Ron Brace. I can see several scenarios:

1. We extend Wilfork prior to the draft. NT is not a need. I like this option.

2. We franchise Wilfork and trade him, using one of the picks from the trade (or one of our own existing picks) to draft Mount Cody. I'm fine with this option.

3. We franchise Wilfork and keep him at DT for 2010, expecting to loose him for 2011 but expecting that Brace will be ready to take over as a starting 3-4 DT by then. I don't particularly like this scenario, for several reasons - we get nothing in return for losing Wilfork after 2010, and I don't have that much confidence in Brace.

4. We franchise WIlfork and keep him for 2010, but use own of our 2010 picks to draft a replacement, most likely DT Terrance Cody. We use Wilfork at DE for 2010. I'm not thrilled about this option but I'm ok with it. The question is, if we have to trade up for Cody, how far we would go.

 

[mgteich]

A DL of Warren, Cody and Wilfork would be pretty impressive.

I agree that if the FO does not believe we can keep Wilfork long term, we need a replacement. How badly depends to some extent on how much confidence the FO has in Ron Brace. I can see several scenarios:

1. We extend Wilfork prior to the draft. NT is not a need. I like this option.

2. We franchise Wilfork and trade him, using one of the picks from the trade (or one of our own existing picks) to draft Mount Cody. I'm fine with this option.

3. We franchise Wilfork and keep him at DT for 2010, expecting to loose him for 2011 but expecting that Brace will be ready to take over as a starting 3-4 DT by then. I don't particularly like this scenario, for several reasons - we get nothing in return for losing Wilfork after 2010, and I don't have that much confidence in Brace.

4. We franchise WIlfork and keep him for 2010, but use own of our 2010 picks to draft a replacement, most likely DT Terrance Cody. We use Wilfork at DE for 2010. I'm not thrilled about this option but I'm ok with it. The question is, if we have to trade up for Cody, how far we would go.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

What me worry?

Currently...
-- NE has one starting NT whom we expect to be franchise tagged to control his rights.
-- NE has two adequate reserve NTs (Wright, Pryor) who also fill other roles on the team.
-- NE also has a developmental two-down NT project which isn't looking that bad despite the gloomy Gus crowd luxuriating in their misery.

mg notes his concern is not short term, and he is correctly thinking beyond 2010 in his draft ponderings. The trigger for 2011 and beyond issues revolves around Vince Wilfork and the franchise tag.
-- Vince could be franchised and sign a long term contract. This scenario seems unlikely within the current CBA concerns.
-- Vince could be franchised and 'hold out' from off-season participation, but report for Training Camp. This is a high probability event, based on recent history of team/franchisee relations.
-- Vince could be franchised and hold out of all off-season activity, reporting before the regular season starts. Vince has been here long enough to see how that works, I expect him to report for Training Camp so he can ensure he's in football shape for the season.
-- Vince could be franchised and hold out into the season until he's traded. See above on holdouts.
-- Vince could be franchised and traded before the draft. This is not that unlikely with two Belichick disciples trying to improve their team's after their first year in management. It all depends on what they feel is wrong with their team and whether trading for a veteran leader is better for the team than using the pick to acquire a Cody or Williams.
-- Vince could be franchised and one of the 31 signs him to an offer sheet with poison pill, willingly giving up two #1 picks for an experienced NT who can play in ANY system. I don't expect this, not when Cody and Williams and possibly Price will be in this draft class.

If Vince is in the line-up next September, there's no issue.
If Vince is signed away or traded, NE gets additional picks to use in a good NT draft class.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

mg - in addition to Williams and Cody, here's a couple back of the draft kids whom BB might find use for as reserve NTs.

Jay Ross of East Carolina is reportedly 6'3" 314 and looks very good for a guy NFLDS projects as a 7-FA. He's been working against NFLDS's #4 ranked Guard and doing quite well. He's showed very good lateral range for a guy his size. Arkansas is running away from him and he's still disrupting plays with his penetration.

Stanford's Ekom Udofia is listed as 6'2" 315 and projected as a FA by NFLDS. He's accepted an invite to the Shrine Game, hopefully he's not hurt too badly after getting knocked out of the bowl game against Oklahoma - OK wasn't having any success running inside until after he went out.

 

[mayoclinic]

mg - in addition to Williams and Cody, here's a couple back of the draft kids whom BB might find use for as reserve NTs.

Jay Ross of East Carolina is reportedly 6'3" 314 and looks very good for a guy NFLDS projects as a 7-FA. He's been working against NFLDS's #4 ranked Guard and doing quite well. He's showed very good lateral range for a guy his size. Arkansas is running away from him and he's still disrupting plays with his penetration.

Stanford's Ekom Udofia is listed as 6'2" 315 and projected as a FA by NFLDS. He's accepted an invite to the Shrine Game, hopefully he's not hurt too badly after getting knocked out of the bowl game against Oklahoma - OK wasn't having any success running inside until after he went out.

With Brace, Pryor and Richards, why do you see the need for more late round 3-4 DT prospects? Practice squad fodder and emergency replacements are fine, but realistically there's not going to be much room on the roster for any of those guys.

 

[mgteich]

Unless Wilfork is extended, we need a NT who is can be the core of our defense by the time the 2011 starts. We gave little need for late round draft choices.

mg - in addition to Williams and Cody, here's a couple back of the draft kids whom BB might find use for as reserve NTs.

Jay Ross of East Carolina is reportedly 6'3" 314 and looks very good for a guy NFLDS projects as a 7-FA. He's been working against NFLDS's #4 ranked Guard and doing quite well. He's showed very good lateral range for a guy his size. Arkansas is running away from him and he's still disrupting plays with his penetration.

Stanford's Ekom Udofia is listed as 6'2" 315 and projected as a FA by NFLDS. He's accepted an invite to the Shrine Game, hopefully he's not hurt too badly after getting knocked out of the bowl game against Oklahoma - OK wasn't having any success running inside until after he went out.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Unless Wilfork is extended, we need a NT who is can be the core of our defense by the time the 2011 starts. We gave little need for late round draft choices.

With Brace, Pryor and Richards, why do you see the need for more late round 3-4 DT prospects? Practice squad fodder and emergency replacements are fine, but realistically there's not going to be much room on the roster for any of those guys.

Couple of big spenders. :yeeha:

Brace is a Day One pick whom I expect will work out okay as a two-down NT.
Pryor is a sixth round pick who is working out very well as a reserve 3-down NT.
Richards is a DE. I haven't seen him work at the Nose yet.

Pryor has worked out just fine as a "late round" pick. He's clearly buying time for Brace to develop and if Brace never does Pryor is capable of platooning with another player to fill the void losing Wilfork would cause. Mike Wright and Pryor can already provide a decent platoon team, but having another prospect who can slide in if one is injured is good value. Adams came off the PSquad and filled that role for one game - could have been better, but he's also a "little" guy without Wright's quickness.

So yes gentlebeings, I do indeed look at later round NT prospects and consider how they could help the team. Let's assume Wilfork is franchised and no rival team signs him to an offer sheet or makes an acceptable trade offer - NE then gets to plan on Wilfork for the season (barring holdouts). That gives them Wilfork, Brace, Pryor, and Wright to develop and use at the nose; do you then use one or more 1st/2nd round picks on Cody or Williams? For all Ochmed is jumping up and down and yelling "YES!" I doubt BB would do that, which leaves later round prospects to consider in the event the Wilfork situation turns ugly.

While I'm pondering the late round prospects, here's a couple I forgot to list:
-- Torrell Troup, Central Florida (6'3" 314, NFLDS projected 4th)
-- Corey Peters, Kentucky (6'3" 295, NFLDS projected 5-6th)

Troup is a decent two-down option, though I liked what East Carolina's Ross showed me better.
Peters I haven't watched though I have their bowl game taped, but he comes from the same system that gave NE Pryor; and while he's Mike Wright sized, he might be as capable as Wright is in playing the Nose with a technique better suited to his abilities. He's an All-SEC First Team choice by the SEC Coaches, which gives me some confidence in suggesting him without having watched him yet.

 

[Kontradiction]

It shouldn't be very high at all. Hopefully we re-sign Wilfork, but if we don't I have confidence in Brace. He's only a rookie but looked good in limited action. He has the size to be a good NT and was taking up two blockers (his main task) in the Buffalo game. Again, though, hopefully we re-sign Big Vince.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Unless Wilfork is extended, we need a NT who is can be the core of our defense by the time the 2011 starts. We gave little need for late round draft choices.

There's the rub, if we do not have Wilfork or Mt. Cody locked up long term, then we are in trouble. Wright, Pryor and Richard are stop gaps at best. None expected to survive an entire season in the middle.

The backup for Cody at Alabama is Chapman (from the same high school and Chad Jackson,I think.) and he appears to be a Wilfork like player, plays on skates sometimes.

Will Brian Kelly switch Notre Dame to a 3-4 defense next season? If he does,it will take a few years to develop an NFL NT at best.

Cody is the only guy capable of starting from day one in our defense, and provide an upgrade over Wilfork, available for next season. Otherwise BB tags Wilfork as a one year stop gap and hopefully things do not get nasty.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Cody is very tempting, he could allow Wilfork to slide to RDE creating a truly formidible run stopping front with Warren. Green (assuming he's re-signed) and Wright can then go back to being the passing down specialists where they excell...you can use Pryor on the nose and have a three man front that can play the run if needed, but excell at collapsing the pocket.

 

[mayoclinic]

Cody is very tempting, he could allow Wilfork to slide to RDE creating a truly formidible run stopping front with Warren. Green (assuming he's re-signed) and Wright can then go back to being the passing down specialists where they excell...you can use Pryor on the nose and have a three man front that can play the run if needed, but excell at collapsing the pocket.

That would be a very nice DL. You could also run some "big 4-3" schemes with Wilfork and Cody both inside, reminiscent of Baltimore with Sam Adams and Tony Siragusa in 2000.

 

[DocE]

I think one issue that has not been discussed is that it might be difficult to keep 3 NT's on the 53 man roster. If Wilfork is back, either Brace or the drafted player would be inactive every week and it is possible (maybe even probable) that both would be inactive. Given that NT's are unlikely to help in the kicking game (except field goal block), it's tough to keep a number of them on your roster. The Patriots are fortunate to have a versatile guy like Mike Wright who can play end, NT, and contribute in the kicking game. Wright isn't ideal size wise for the spot, but he does a nice job in limited reps. The coaches seem to prefer Pryor at NT to Brace as well.

With the way the Patriots run defense has looked without Wilfork, I'd hope they realize his value and pay him.