You're right about everything here except the last bit. It was absolutely idiotic that there was even a conversation about going for it on that 4th and inches. I don't have the probabilities up in front of me, but you have to figure Gost had a % chance of making it somewhere in the 80s. I wouldn't give Brady higher than a 65%hchance of making that sneak in an obvious short yardage situation, especially since he hasn't been the sneak king for a few years now.
If either of those plays are successful, you win, so take the one with a higher chance of success. The argument against this was "b-but what if they scored, then got the onside kick, then scored again?????". Cool. Make the other team do the low probability plays, not us. Same principle that makes me not like when teams pre-emptively go for 2.