Gillislee and Burkhead vs. Blount: the analytics factor

[BobDigital]

It is just me or are the pats set up to pay as much money as they ever did on their RB position as far as % of cap. I think they are puttting 10M into the spot total.

 

[varjao]

It is just me or are the pats set up to pay as much money as they ever did on their RB position as far as % of cap. I think they are puttting 10M into the spot total.

I was thinking about that, Avocado Ice Cream or not BB might be thinking that Tom cannot throw 40+ pass attempts every game anymore if they are really thinking about an extension, so they may load on RB but not like the Eagles did a few years ago if star RB's, instead, we are going to keep the cheap and good philosophy, players that other GM's are afraid to take a chance because they are not big names, BB doesn't give a **** about that.

 

[RobertWeathers]

It is just me or are the pats set up to pay as much money as they ever did on their RB position as far as % of cap. I think they are puttting 10M into the spot total.

I think it is.

05 or 06 might be close with Dillon and Faulk and LoMos rookie deal in 06

 

[maineman209]

Blount wore down as the season went on. He looked really good at the start, but those last few regular season games, even with Lewis and White taking a lot of snaps, he just looked slower.

Blount's ypa didn't really nose dive until week 15. But then, by the end of week 14, he'd already run the ball 240 times at age 30. He previous high for an entire season was 201 - when he was a 24-year-old rookie UDFA in 2010. It would have been shocking if he hadn't worn down a bit. The only RB with more than 300 carries in 2016 besides Blount was Elliot.

Even so, he still scored 4 TDs over the last 3 weeks and broke a 19-yarder in week-17 and an 18-yarder in the first playoff game against Houston.

 

[VJCPatriot]

The Pats also have more cap space than ever. They could afford to shore up a position that was considered a luxury before. By not re-signing Blount we got two younger and more efficient RBs in Burkhead and Gillislee. If the metrics are to be believed, we just upgraded the RB position significantly.

And we got those two 2 players for 7.15m combined which is the average salary of just 1 top 10 paid RB.

source: NFL's highest paid running backs: 2016 rankings
NFL's highest paid RBs (average salary per year):
1. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson: $14 million
2. Bills RB LeSean McCoy: $8 million
3. Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart: $7.3 million
4. Buccaneers RB Doug Martin: $7.2 million
5. Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles: $6.9 million
6. Texans RB Lamar Miller: $6.5 million
7. Jaguars RB Chris Ivory: $6.4 million
8. Titans RB DeMarco Murray: $6.4 million
9. Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott: $6.2 million
10. Bengals RB Giovani Bernard: $5.2 million

 

[maineman209]

Not even remotely true. Burkehead is a very good receiver and Gillislee is a fine receiver too, their stats are just low due to playing time.

Gillislee has 19 total targets in his career, all of them in 20 games the last two seasons in BUF. His ypc is 5.3, which is basically taking dumpoffs.

Burkhead had 45 targets over his last 3 seasons in Cinci, 19 of which came in just his last seven games last season - with a ypc of about 9 yards (more than just dumpoffs). That still doesn't put him in Matt Forte's class, or even in the Lewis/White class as a receiver, but it's a nifty feature to be able to put to use occasionally with your lead, between-the-tackles ball carrier.

 

[aluminum seats]

Meh. I don't think the fumble had anything to do with it.

This was all about performance, ago, contract demands and better, younger options available.

Agreed. I think a much more damning play was failing to pick up a first down that was clearly there on the opening series in the Super Bowl. Terrible read and execution.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Agreed. I think a much more damning play was failing to pick up a first down that was clearly there on the opening series in the Super Bowl. Terrible read and execution.

Yes he might have been too excited.

 

[aluminum seats]

Yes he might have been too excited.

Then why was he so slow lol

Edit: but seriously, 7 games without a point in the first quarter. Crazy

 

[Edelmania]

I like the moves a lot. I will miss Blount a lot he was one of my favorite players but Gillislee brings more youth and play making to the position than Blount does.

I still view Burkhead as a Bolden upgrade. Even though we resigned Bolden I dont think he will make the team unless something happens to Burkhead. I believe Burkhead is a top notch special teamer and that is the main reason they signed him. I think he will get his snaps at RB too but unless they trade Lewis or Lewis gets injured I dont see him playing a ton of offense.

 

[Tony2046]

Just an FYI from Miguel:

 

[Edelmania]

Also, somewhat unrelated, I think we almost have too many weapons on offense.

WR: Cooks, Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Amendola
TE: Gronkowski, Allen
RB: Gillislee, White, Lewis, Berkhead

That is 11 solid skill position players. I love the depth trust me but only 5 can play at a time so having 11 seems a little over kill. And this is before factoring in any rookies or second year guys like DJ Foster, Devin Lucien, etc that could come along.

Because of this I view Hogan and especially Lewis as potential trade pieces. While I dont want to trade Butler, a package deal of Butler + Lewis to the Saints would make a lot of sense for both sides. Maybe we could get #11 in return, although I would prefer #32 and #42. Those picks would allow us to fill some holes on defense (DE, LB, Etc.) with young rookies on cheap long term contracts while only losing a couple players at positions we are already deep at. RB would be more than fine with Gillislee, White and Berkhead. And CB should hold up fine with Gilmore, Rowe, and whoever wins the slot job (probably Cyrus). We could pick up Jason McCourty or Darelle Revis if need be as well.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I like the moves a lot. I will miss Blount a lot he was one of my favorite players but Gillislee brings more youth and play making to the position than Blount does.

I still view Burkhead as a Bolden upgrade. Even though we resigned Bolden I dont think he will make the team unless something happens to Burkhead. I believe Burkhead is a top notch special teamer and that is the main reason they signed him. I think he will get his snaps at RB too but unless they trade Lewis or Lewis gets injured I dont see him playing a ton of offense.

Burk is a huge upgrade v Bolden . There is no debate

 

[RayClay]

Also, somewhat unrelated, I think we almost have too many weapons on offense.

WR: Cooks, Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Amendola
TE: Gronkowski, Allen
RB: Gillislee, White, Lewis, Berkhead

That is 11 solid skill position players. I love the depth trust me but only 5 can play at a time so having 11 seems a little over kill. And this is before factoring in any rookies or second year guys like DJ Foster, Devin Lucien, etc that could come along.

Because of this I view Hogan and especially Lewis as potential trade pieces. While I dont want to trade Butler, a package deal of Butler + Lewis to the Saints would make a lot of sense for both sides. Maybe we could get #11 in return, although I would prefer #32 and #42. Those picks would allow us to fill some holes on defense (DE, LB, Etc.) with young rookies on cheap long term contracts while only losing a couple players at positions we are already deep at. RB would be more than fine with Gillislee, White and Lewis. And CB should hold up fine with Gilmore, Rowe, and whoever wins the slot job (probably Cyrus). We could pick up Jason McCourty or Darelle Revis if need be as well.

Lewis is coming into the second year after his surgery. They'll regret it if they trade him IMO. Hogan is a perfect fit, why in the world would you trade him?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Just an FYI from Miguel:

Hmm. Maybe it's low enough for BUF to keep.

 

[Edelmania]

Lewis is coming into the second year after his surgery. They'll regret it if they trade him IMO. Hogan is a perfect fit, why in the world would you trade him?

For Hogan I probably wouldn't trade him personally but the reasons to do so would be:

• He was primarily our big play guy (only 38 catches but for 17.9 yards each) and we got another big play guy with Brandin Cooks.
• He has a very team friendly contract and a small cap hit that would make him desirable to other teams
• And most importantly like I said in my other post, with the shear amount of weapons we already have on offense we could do without him.

 

[BelichickFan]

Just an FYI from Miguel:

It will cost the Bills $4M, he worded it badly, he just means it will "only" cost an additional $2.2. But the difference between matching and not matching is $4M.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Just an FYI from Miguel:

Every party needs a party pooper

 

[Tony2046]

Hmm. Maybe it's low enough for BUF to keep.

I was wondering the same. Found this at the Buffalo News FWIW:

Skurski thinks they should match for the quality depth but hates that the Bill keep putting themselves into this type of cap situation.

Analysis: Mike Gillislee dilemma starts with Jim Overdorf's mismanagement of salary cap - The Buffalo News

The Bills, who have until Monday to make their decision on whether to match New England’s offer, have $10.8 million in space under the salary cap. That includes Gillislee’s current tender. If they match, the team will add about $2.2 million to their cap, leaving them with $8.6 million with which to get their draft picks signed and have enough for roster moves that arise during the season. Last year, the six players drafted in the slots the Bills currently hold for the 2017 draft counted about $5.84 million against the salary cap. With inflation, the Bills should need about $6 million this season for their drafted rookies, although only about $2.5 million of that would count against the cap in the offseason, when only a team’s top 51 contracts count against the cap.

The bottom line is, the Bills have the cap space if they want to match Gillislee’s offer, particularly with more breathing room opening up after June 1 following the release of Aaron Williams.

 

[Tony2046]

It will cost the Bills $4M, he worded it badly, he just means it will "only" cost an additional $2.2. But the difference between matching and not matching is $4M.

Correct. But if you're looking at it from a Bill's cap space perspective which already includes the tender it is an additional 2.2 cap hit. Previously when I heard 4 mill I thought that left the Bills with 6 mill in cap space.

Anyways you're right but wanted to throw that out there in case anyone else saw it the way I had before.