Free Money? Bet Against Regression to Mean for the Pats

[jmt57]

In almost all seasons I predict 12-4.

One division loss (almost always unexpected, though it shouldn't be)
One road loss (an out of division team, like KC in 2014)
One loss to a good team (for example Seattle last year)
One WTF game (such as Philadelphia in 2015)


Granted this team looks much better right now than, for example, the Deltha O'Neil, Shawn Springs era teams - but let's pump the brakes on all the 16-0/19-0 talk. All it would take is an injury or two on the offensive line, for example, and suddenly the Patriots are no longer favorites to win it all.

 

[mgteich]

QUESTION 1
A coin is flipped and come up heads 10 times in a row. How would bet on the next toss?

QUESION 2
A team wins 12 games 7 times in a row? Are they more or less likely to win 12 or more in the next season?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I don't know if 7 is an easy bet for the Dolphins. The AFC West and NFC South look like the two toughest divisions in football right now. The Patriots should win at least 6 or 7 of games against those divisions. I don't think Miami is built to keep pace with that schedule.

11.5 is a deflated number. The numbers may suggest that the Patriots regress 2.5 wins, but they've set 12 wins as the mean since 2010.

12.7, in fact.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

O/U now come down to 11 at South Point, and 10.5 at Bovada:

NFL regular season win totals released by South Point in Las Vegas

Even Free-er money!

And here's another historical list (via Kevin Duffy):


2016 (via Bovada): Patriots, Packers, Steelers, Panthers, Seahawks -- 10.5

2015 (via Bovada): Colts, Packers, Seahawks -- 11

2014 (via LVH Superbook): Broncos, Seahawks -- 11

2013 (via LVH Superbook): Patriots, 49ers, Broncos -- 11.5

2012 (via Cantor Gaming): Patriots, Packers -- 12

 

[SlowGettingUp]

This latest Bovada report has the Pats at 12.5, which seems much more reasonable to me - free money now gone:

Oddsmaker has Patriots with highest win over/under in 10 years