Football Outsiders Week 11 statistical update

[Kasmir]

BJGE is again 3rd in the league in DYAR and DVOA, and is back to #3 in success rate. Benny only has 9 receptions but for an excellent 33.9% DVOA.

Woodhead doesn't have enough carries yet to qualify on the leader board, but if he did, his 43.8% DVOA would lead all running backs by a wide margin. Woodhead *does* qualify for the RB receiving leaderboard, where his is #2 in DVOA at 57.9% (Moreno is #1 at 66.1%, but he's 31st/32nd running from scrimmage). There's no back in the league that's been more effective with the ball this year than Danny Woodhead. It's not even close.

Brady is running away with the QB stats, leading in both DYAR and DVOA. By those stats he should be the lead candidate for the MVP, but of course he gets little mention. Brady is having a quietly great year.

Gronkowski is now the #2 TE (to Gates) in DYAR, and #4 in DVOA. Hernandez is #6 in DYAR and #11 in DVOA.

Our wide receivers are below average according to FO, with Branch leading at 36th/37th and Welker at 51st/53rd.

It's the TE's and Woodhead that are carrying the DYAR/DVOA load for Brady in the passing game, but in truth it's largely Brady himself: 19 TD's to 3 intercepts is truly extraordinary.

Our offense is overall #1 by far in DVOA, and is 1st in passing and 3rd in rushing.

No comment on the defense, you can look it up yourself:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2010 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Here's what FO says about the Patriots as a team:

Do you wonder how the Patriots have gotten to 8-2 despite a young, undisciplined and outright poor defense? Well, no matter how good you think the Patriots offense has been, they've been better. Based on our numbers, this is the second-most efficient offense the Patriots have put on the field, trailing only the record-breaking 2007 team. In fact, this could be the best offense we've ever measured other than that team. Yes, the Patriots are only seventh in the league with 5.6 net yards per play, but they've been outstanding at extending drives and extremely good at avoiding turnovers. The Patriots are first in DVOA on third and fourth downs, and their 78.8% rating is far ahead of any other team. (Atlanta is second at 50.6%.) Meanwhile, only Kansas City (seven) has fewer turnovers than New England's nine, and one of those Patriots turnovers was a Hail Mary pass at the end of regulation before their overtime victory over Baltimore. The Patriots aren't keeping the turnovers down through fumble recovery luck -- they have only one fumble that they themselves have recovered to go with the three that their opponent have recovered. As a result, the Patriots are tied with the 2004 Colts as the second-best offense we've ever tracked through Week 11.

 

[WinstonSmith]

Good summary by Aaron Schatz regarding the Patriots current ranking and situation; I think he’s spot-on regarding both the offense and defense, except I would have added “opportunistic” to his list of adjectives describing the defense.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Good summary by Aaron Schatz regarding the Patriots current ranking and situation; I think he’s spot-on regarding both the offense and defense, except I would have added “opportunistic” to his list of adjectives describing the defense.

"Opportunistic" is a growing tendency, at this point the defense's adjective is "developing" and nicely so indeed.