Football Outsiders blueprint to beat the Pats

[Mooch]

As soon as NE switched to a two TE set, the defense would counter.

They would run, but they would still need to do it out of the 3/4 WR sets.

Let 'em counter. You could then go spread formation and still win one-on-one matchups with Watson and Faulk against slower DBs and LBs.

Gimmick defense is NOT the way to go against the Pats. IMO, you go with a standard 4-3 and play a lot of "angry man" at the line and take your chances on a missed O-Line assignment. All this exotic gameplanning is just choosing a different poison.

 

[sebman2112]

Let 'em counter. You could then go spread formation and still win one-on-one matchups with Watson and Faulk against slower DBs and LBs.

Gimmick defense is NOT the way to go against the Pats. IMO, you go with a standard 4-3 and play a lot of "angry man" at the line and take your chances on a missed O-Line assignment. All this exotic gameplanning is just choosing a different poison.

Exactly, and Brady's hit Moss on some bombs out of single receiver and two TE sets, as well.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

An interesting read and daunting to an amateur like me. But, I'm just gonna suppose that there's a chance, just a chance mind you, that there isn't anything in the article that Bill Belichick hasn't already though about from four different angles.

 

[NEPatriot]

we are going to see 2 more blueprints after this sat.

 

[makewayhomer]

I think people are being a little sensitive here.

the point of the article isn't "how to shut out the Pats" it's "how to slow them down and hold them to around 20".

lots of the ideas in the article could work, but obv. nothing is foolproof

 

[makewayhomer]

He's acting like you can just discount their rushing attack. While it is obvious that NE's passing attack is their strength, they can run the ball too, and if you're putting LB's one-one-one against guys like Mankins, their going to get chewed up. Really, it's the type of defense that would allow Maroney to get into the second level, and I think every Patriots fan realizes that's a very bad idea for opposing teams, as his open field ability is very good. I would continue running out of single back formations though.

the Jags - or any team - would be thrilled with us running the ball 25-30 times. even if we average 6 yards a carry, that's still better than what Brady averages on an attempt.

 

[flasox27]

If Belichick has read the article which I assume he has, he has already planned a counter attack. The one thing Belichick isn't is stagnant.

 

[sebman2112]

the Jags - or any team - would be thrilled with us running the ball 25-30 times. even if we average 6 yards a carry, that's still better than what Brady averages on an attempt.

That might sound good to you, but if you're D-line consist of three linemen (at least one could be out of positon), and one LB (also playing out of positon), do you really think their going to fair well against Mankins, Light, Koppen, Neal, and Kaczur? Some of those defensive schemes are just asking to be gashed by the run, and NE has a fast RB who's good in space. I'm willing to bet you'd see at least three or four 20-30 yard runs if a defense was to use that base against NE.

 

[makewayhomer]

That might sound good to you, but if you're D-line consist of three linemen (at least one could be out of positon), and one LB (also playing out of positon), do you really think their going to fair well against Mankins, Light, Koppen, Neal, and Kaczur? Some of those defensive schemes are just asking to be gashed by the run, and NE has a fast RB who's good in space. I'm willing to bet you'd see at least three or four 20-30 yard runs if a defense was to use that base against NE.

no, they won't fair well. but no defense has faired well vs this team, except the Colts (with Freeney).

the question is if they could hold the Pats to 20ish instead of high 30's by forcing them to run more and/or limiting big plays

 

[sebman2112]

no, they won't fair well. but no defense has faired well vs this team, except the Colts (with Freeney).

the question is if they could hold the Pats to 20ish instead of high 30's by forcing them to run more and/or limiting big plays

I know that's the idea. What I'm saying is you'd be getting gashed by the run, and could give up large chunks of yardage, so the potential for NE scoring a lot of points would still exist.

 

[makewayhomer]

I know that's the idea. What I'm saying is you'd be getting gashed by the run, and could give up large chunks of yardage, so the potential for NE scoring a lot of points would still exist.

it could sure. but isnt what this basically what a lot of teams resorted to doing vs the Colts? you're ok with giving up lots of small plays, and hoping eventually Manning throws an INT, or someone fumbles, or you get a big sack and stop a drive.

 

[ALP]

that blueprint wouldnt work...

lets be truthful here, NO secondary in the league can stand with the pats wr corps for about 4-7 secs....which is how mcuh time brady would have to throw the ball with that gameplan, b/c it is focused on good coverage rahter then smart blitzing, and i am completely sure that the only way to beat the pats is to get to brady....hoping something happens downfield and his wr's dont get open, or the o line messes up, or brady just throws a bad pass....

but with that gameplan, u arnt gonna get far

 

[fourthandmiles]

As a joke in that Brady injury thread I made this graphic and that is also his first point on how to beat the Patriots. Keep them to less than 20 points. Pats have not won a game in which they have score fewer than 20 points.

It's like "What is the meaning of life? Total peace. The problem is, what would you consider total peace?" It is just not likely to happen.

 

[makewayhomer]

that blueprint wouldnt work...

lets be truthful here, NO secondary in the league can stand with the pats wr corps for about 4-7 secs....which is how mcuh time brady would have to throw the ball with that gameplan, b/c it is focused on good coverage rahter then smart blitzing

the Colts held us to 24 without blitzing

 

[makewayhomer]

Here comes some guy who NO ONE HAS OFFERED A PAYCHECK TO COACH A FOOTBALL TEAM, who thinks he knows better what the Jags should do than their coach.

some other guys who started as analysts/writers before landing influential jobs in the front offices of major sports teams:

Bill James
Keith Law
Keith Woolner
Neil Huntington
Voros McCracken
Eric Van

if you don't know who these people are, use google. learn something instead of ignorantly criticizing.

 

[TripleOption]

of course. here is the end, since I doubt most people will get there

"In football, execution is always far more important than design. The Blueprint will work, if the nickelback can match up with Welker or Gaffney,

You can just stop right there. Who has a 5th or 6th DB that can match up with Welker??

The Pats will go Empty, and pick the Jags apart.

 

[TripleOption]

If Belichick has read the article which I assume he has, he has already planned a counter attack. The one thing Belichick isn't is stagnant.

So...you think Bill Belichick, the Head Coach of an NFL team, the owner of 5 Super Bowl rings and the architect of a 16-0 regular season is spending time during the week leading up to a Divisional Playoff game reading fan websites?

Yikes.

 

[TripleOption]

some other guys who started as analysts/writers before landing influential jobs in the front offices of major sports teams:

Bill James
Keith Law
Keith Woolner
Neil Huntington
Voros McCracken
Eric Van

if you don't know who these people are, use google. learn something instead of ignorantly criticizing.

They're all Baseball twits. It's a completely different animal. There is a massive difference between blogging Baseball and coming up with a viable NFL gameplan.

 

[makewayhomer]

They're all Baseball twits. It's a completely different animal. There is a massive difference between blogging Baseball and coming up with a viable NFL gameplan.

the common denominator is doing original analysis and coming to real and valuable conclusions, which is possible in all walks of life.

and btw, BB already listens to and respects independent analysts.

here is 1 example:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/columns/garber_greg/1453717.html

 

[Scouse Patriot]

It was a very interesting read, especially for me as I didn't grow up in football and the X's and O's of plays have never really been shown and talked about to me in depth. Whilst I was reading the points made and looking at various schemes one thing kept on coming up in my mind. We can still beat it. You can sit down and lay out all the plays you want and say this will work and that will work but it's not that simple. Especially against the talent and brains we posses.