Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last year?

[BradyFTW!]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I recall:

Before last season, the Patriots offered Welker a 3 year, $24 million, fully guaranteed contract. Welker turned it down, presumably because he thought he was not just worth more, but worth more by a large enough amount justify the risk of playing out 2012 under the tag. In that respect, it would only really be a worthwhile gamble for Welker if, in the event that he put up strong numbers, he was able to sign for more (tag year plus next contract) than the Pats were offering last year.

But now look at what he ended up getting. By taking the Pats' offer, he would have played 2012-2014 for $24M, all guaranteed.

By not taking the offer, he played 2012 for $9.5M, and will now play 2013-2014 for $12M. In other words, even if you assume that all $12M is guaranteed from the Broncos, he will get paid $2.5M less over those three years than he would have if he'd just taken the Pats' original offer. Even if you don't factor in the risk that he incurred, he simply got a much worse deal out of it, in pure dollar value.

Conclusion: Welker gambled, overplayed his hand, took on needless risk, and ended up making a solid 10% less money than he could have, with added risk, as a result.

On the other hand, that's just one more thing that bothers me about how the Patriots handled this whole process. If he was worth 3/24 last year, how is he not worth 2/12 now? Are they that positive that the wheels are going to fall off in the next 2 years?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I recall:

Before last season, the Patriots offered Welker a 3 year, $24 million, fully guaranteed contract. Welker turned it down, presumably because he thought he was not just worth more, but worth more by a large enough amount justify the risk of playing out 2012 under the tag. In that respect, it would only really be a worthwhile gamble for Welker if, in the event that he put up strong numbers, he was able to sign for more (tag year plus next contract) than the Pats were offering last year.

The highest number I heard was 2 yrs/$16M.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

Jason La Canfora ?@JasonLaCanfora
On Welker, a year ago Pats offer 2yrs, around $18M, on a front-loaded deal before he ended up franchised. Another yr older not good for WRs

 

[BadMoFo]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

This is embarassing, worse than the Vinatieri deal.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

This is embarassing, worse than the Vinatieri deal.

Not really a good comparison: AV wasn't quite worth to the Patriots, who play almost exclusively outdoors (the only dome games they play are away games outside the division), what the Colts were giving him (they play at least 9 dome games a year).

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last y

Welker had a chance and its gone. If I were the pats I would have done the same thing.

 

[Shockt327]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

People forget that Vinateri was having nagging injury concerns too.

I can't recall if it was his back or leg, but he was not in good shape in 2005/06.

Didn't the Colts have to sign Gramattica to cover for Vinateri too (after NE cut him).

 

[supafly]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

NE's reported deal was nowhere close to 3/24.

The deal that has been talked about by respected capologists on this forum like MoLewisRocks was supposedly for 2/16 (LaCanfora reports 2/18, but this is the first we've heard of this), and according to many that was an extension to his last remaining year of his deal which would have made his aav for the next three years at about 6 million dollars.

When NE offered a new deal during the franchise tag negotiations last summer they actually lowered it from 2/16, at least according to his agent. By all accounts, LaCanfora is reporting old information that dates back to more than 1 yr ago. On top of that, he somehow came up with 2/18 instead of the widely reported 2/16.

It's been more than obvious for 2+ yrs that NE does not value Welker anywhere close to some of the posters here.

How about those who claimed "4/40 and 5/50" for BOTH Welker and Talib? LOL. I guess we're lucky they aren't our GM's.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

All of the previously mentioned offers were more than the best offer Welker got from the Broncos

Honestly I'm amazed at how low he signed for like everyone else - but I have to ask myself if both the Broncos and the Patriots know something we don't given how low the deal was (and yes - Welker is probably regretting not taking the deal from the Pats last year)

If $6 million a season is really the best he could get, for a guy who has previously consistently hauled in 100 plus passes a season, perhaps there's some legitimate concerns?

In any event, I see the Patriots moving to three TE sets - and look forward to other defenses being confounded as to how to defend that. I still put a deep WR as a higher priority than Welker, but am very disappointed we couldn't keep him at that cheap price

 

[supafly]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

All of the previously mentioned offers were more than the best offer Welker got from the Broncos

Honestly I'm amazed at how low he signed for like everyone else - but I have to ask myself if both the Broncos and the Patriots know something we don't given how low the deal was (and yes - Welker is probably regretting not taking the deal from the Pats last year)

If $6 million a season is really the best he could get, for a guy who has previously consistently hauled in 100 plus passes a season, perhaps there's some legitimate concerns?

In any event, I see the Patriots moving to three TE sets - and look forward to other defenses being confounded as to how to defend that. I still put a deep WR as a higher priority than Welker, but am very disappointed we couldn't keep him at that cheap price

I don't think 3 TE sets is very realistic in today's NFL, unless you're in big formations or GL formations.

We'll continue on with a 2/2/1 primary offense, and Danny Amendola was signed for a long term 5 yr deal worth almost 3x what DEN gave Welker.

 

[andrewgarrr]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

I don't think 3 TE sets is very realistic in today's NFL, unless you're in big formations or GL formations.

Hernandez is unlike most other TEs.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

Jason La Canfora ?@JasonLaCanfora
On Welker, a year ago Pats offer 2yrs, around $18M, on a front-loaded deal before he ended up franchised. Another yr older not good for WRs

So he would have made $9 million a year (made $9 million last year) and might have been able to get $4-5 million next year. Might have made a few million more based on this info.

 

[supafly]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

Hernandez is unlike most other TEs.

I hear what you're saying, but there's no way NE is moving to a 3 TE set. That won't work very well. At all.

They didn't just pay Amendola a 5/31 deal for nothing. He's obviously taking over the slot role in the offense.

It will still be a 2/2/1 offense. They're not going to go without any kind of outside or possession receiver. That wouldn't make any sense.

 

[supafly]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

So he would have made $9 million a year (made $9 million last year) and might have been able to get $4-5 million next year. Might have made a few million more based on this info.

I'm not personally buying this at all, but that's just my opinion.

I highly doubt they went all the way from almost 20 million down to 10 million in one season.

Like I said, I believe that LaCanfora's information is old, and I trust Jason, Miguel, and MoLewisRocks for cap issues, which say that the 2/16 (or LaCanfora's "2/18") deal was an extension of the last remaining yr of his deal. Welker's agent himself said in late May last year that this deal had been lowered so my guess is they wanted to erase the franchise tag with a 2 yr deal between their initial 2/16 extension and the 2/10 deal they offered today. That would make a lot of sense considering that he's now a year older and they'd lessen their deal a few/several million from last summer's offer.

LaCanfora is just trying to look for an angle to the story that Welker didn't want to stay here, which isn't true at all. It's the Patriots who chose not to have him here.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

I'm not personally buying this at all, but that's just my opinion.

I highly doubt they went all the way from almost 20 million down to 10 million in one season.

Like I said, I believe that LaCanfora's information is old, and I trust Jason, Miguel, and MoLewisRocks for cap issues, which say that the 2/16 (or LaCanfora's "2/18") deal was an extension of the last remaining yr of his deal. Welker's agent himself said in late May last year that this deal had been lowered so my guess is they wanted to erase the franchise tag with a 2 yr deal between their initial 2/16 extension and the 2/10 deal they offered today.

He was another year younger and the Pats were going to have to pay him $9 million last year anyway from the franchise tag. Welker dropped a lot of balls last year and maybe they were concerned that this was a trend that was going to continue going forward. Also, his YAC production dropped last year (732 or 6 YAC average per catch in 2011 and 619 or 5.25 YAC average per catch last year). Those could have factored in them decided to give him a lowball offer.

 

[supafly]

Re: Financially, wouldn't Welker have been better off taking the Pats' offer last yea

He was another year younger and the Pats were going to have to pay him $9 million last year anyway from the franchise tag. Welker dropped a lot of balls last year and maybe they were concerned that this was a trend that was going to continue going forward. Also, his YAC production dropped last year (732 or 6 YAC average per catch in 2011 and 619 or 5.25 YAC average per catch last year). Those could have factored in them decided to give him a lowball offer.

It's certainly possible, we probably won't ever know for sure.

Either way, NE had a set value on him they weren't going to budge from. The only time it appeared that he may stay was the period after Brady was extended which freed up more money. That, and speculation from several reports that he was "more than likely" to stay gave many including myself, some added optimism. In all reality it was also fairly clear that Belichick wasn't going to move very much.

Hopefully it's all a moot point anyway if Amendola (and I am hoping Edelman for insurance and STs) can make up a good percentage of his production next season.